NolePride
Well-Known Member
You are thinking about it in a static fashion.
It isn't just who you lost to, but WHEN you lost to them. It's well established that early losses count against you FAR less than later ones. Also by how much. A 23-20 loss doesn't do nearly the damage needed to be the only factor in UW being left out.
I'm not saying a 12-1 UW is a lock, but they would have a higher chance than you are painting. The real question is how they looked against the rest of the ranked teams they played and how many close games do they have against any type of non ranked team. Those would be what it boils down to. So again, it's not quite as cut and dry as you want it to be.
I would say that neither team can be eliminated in week 1, but the road to a playoff berth is much more difficult for the loser.
Under the scenario I painted their chances would be nil. There's
not a potential top 10 team on their schedule other than Auburn.
Thus nothing to yank them up. They would climb in the polls, if
they continued to win, but even beating a Top 10 USC in the
title game probably wouldn't get them above 6th...maybe 5th.
If Bama lost in the SEC title game vs a 1-loss UGA team, Bama
would go over Washington based on beating Auburn.
People pay attention to the name on the front of the jersey.
Bama went to the playoffs, despite not playing for the league title.
Ohio St went to the playoffs despite not playing for its league title,
plus they got beat that year by the team that won the Big10.
Wisconsin was unbeaten and lost in the title game and stayed home.
The "name" Wisconsin doesn't have the same draw as the name
"Ohio St."