The Trey Burke Thread

[nuraman00]

LeBron James has a span of 26 games shooting over 60% (Aggregate): LeBron James 2013-14 Game Log | Basketball-Reference.com

Has just one 2-game streak below 35%. LeBron James 2013-14 Game Log | Basketball-Reference.com

Has a 54-game span of 58.6%. LeBron James 2013-14 Game Log | Basketball-Reference.com (First 56 was 58.2%)

Awesome.

 

[MHSL82]

8, 15, 5, and 11 assists in the last four. Best four game span so far. Needs only 4 assists tomorrow to have his best five. These last 8 games are tied for his best 8-game span for assists (61). He needs 6 to tie for his best nine game streak or 11 to beat the 8. 8 and 15 tied his best two-game span of 23 ( 11, 12 last time). 31 was his best for three games (8, 11, 12). He would need 16 tomorrow to have his best three. Before his 15 assist game and this 11 assist outing, I'd have said that was impossible. Still improbable.

What he needs to match his best span of:

1 game - 16
2 games - 12
3 - 15
4 - 8
5 - 4
6 - 10
7 - 11
8 - 10
9 - 6
10 - 11
11 - 14
12 - 12
13 - 13
14 - 13
15 - 14
16 - 13
17 - 18
18 - 19
19 - 20
20 - 24

Yeah, a little carried away. I am hoping for him to beat his 16 game span by getting 14 assists tomorrow. But I am expecting 5 or 6. That could match his 9 game span high.

 

[MHSL82]

Yay! He got it! He's on the best 9 game span of the season for assists (69). That's 8.6 assists per 39.5 minutes. Don't rain on my parade.

 

[MHSL82]

Assuming both Burke and Carter-Williams improve next year, I would assume MCW > TB. However, MCW's 0.4 higher assists per 48* (8.8 to 8.4) is outweighed by his 2.25 higher turnovers per 48 (4.94 to 2.69). As bad as Burke's 38% shooting is, I was surprised to see that MCW shoots only 40%. Burke makes 1/3 of his 3PT shots and MCW makes 1/4 of his. Burke is a much better free throw shooter (89.2 compared to 69.6). MCW is a much better rebounder and stealer than Burke.

What is most fixable? Turnovers, long distance shooting, assists, rebounds, free throw shooting, field goal shooting (two point shots - quantity or percentage), or steals? What is the biggest likelihood of not being sustained? I think rebounding is least likely to improve significantly. I think MCW will always be better in steals and worse in turnovers, but the gap will close a bit.

*I know, the standard rate is 36 minutes, but I chose 48.

 

[nuraman00]

Yay! He got it! He's on the best 9 game span of the season for assists (69). That's 8.6 assists per 39.5 minutes.

What is Hayward's best 9 game span for assists, and what were those minutes?

 

[nuraman00]

Assuming both Burke and Carter-Williams improve next year, I would assume MCW > TB. However, MCW's 0.4 higher assists per 48* (8.8 to 8.4) is outweighed by his 2.25 higher turnovers per 48 (4.94 to 2.69). As bad as Burke's 38% shooting is, I was surprised to see that MCW shoots only 40%. Burke makes 1/3 of his 3PT shots and MCW makes 1/4 of his. Burke is a much better free throw shooter (89.2 compared to 69.6). MCW is a much better rebounder and stealer than Burke.

What is most fixable? Turnovers, long distance shooting, assists, rebounds, free throw shooting, field goal shooting (two point shots - quantity or percentage), or steals? What is the biggest likelihood of not being sustained? I think rebounding is least likely to improve significantly. I think MCW will always be better in steals and worse in turnovers, but the gap will close a bit.

*I know, the standard rate is 36 minutes, but I chose 48.

Burke's turnover rate is not sustainable. He will get worse. 11.9% turnover rate is what the best PGs in NBA history do, for seasons. Burke isn't that good.

Carter-Williams plays at the fastest pace in the league. So turnovers per minute isn't as good of a indicator as turnover rate (what % of his possessions he turns it over), because Carter-Williams has a lot more possessions than other teams.

Still, he seems worse at turnovers than Burke, but when Burke gets worse at turnovers next year, the gap will narrow.

Unless Burke is the type of player that handles the ball at the end of plays, rather than the beginning, because the team's best PG is starting plays, and he's finishing them. Then he can sustain it.

 

[MHSL82]

What is Hayward's best 9 game span for assists, and what were those minutes?

I have a spreadsheet for that. When I get home I'll enter those numbers in. I have a template that all you have to do is in enter in the numbers, as in copy and paste from basketball reference. Then I'll get the best two games, best three games, best four games, etc. until 41. I could do 82 for players who have played more than a couple years. The only two players I've tracked so far is Trey Burke and LeBron James. It is really simple to add others. If you would like, I can send you the spreadsheet. It could probably be done better, but it is just what I wanted for my purposes. It is for points, rebounds, assists, shooting (overall, 3PT, FT), steals, efficiency, +/-, minutes, rebounds (off, def, total), etc.

 

[nuraman00]

I have a spreadsheet for that. When I get home I'll enter those numbers in. I have a template that all you have to do is in enter in the numbers, as in copy and paste from basketball reference. Then I'll get the best two games, best three games, best four games, etc. until 41. I could do 82 for players who have played more than a couple years. The only two players I've tracked so far is Trey Burke and LeBron James. It is really simple to add others. If you would like, I can send you the spreadsheet. It could probably be done better, but it is just what I wanted for my purposes. It is for points, rebounds, assists, shooting (overall, 3PT, FT), steals, efficiency, +/-, minutes, rebounds (off, def, total), etc.

Thanks.

I'll ask for it when I think I'll have time to play around with it.

You are amazing.

 

[MHSL82]

Burke's turnover rate is not sustainable. He will get worse. 11.9% turnover rate is what the best PGs in NBA history do, for seasons. Burke isn't that good.

Carter-Williams plays at the fastest pace in the league. So turnovers per minute isn't as good of a indicator as turnover rate (what % of his possessions he turns it over), because Carter-Williams has a lot more possessions than other teams.

Still, he seems worse at turnovers than Burke, but when Burke gets worse at turnovers next year, the gap will narrow.

Unless Burke is the type of player that handles the ball at the end of plays, rather than the beginning, because the team's best PG is starting plays, and he's finishing them. Then he can sustain it.

If more possessions lead to more turnovers, more possessions lead to more assists and maybe points (though the rate could produce more bad shots). So therefore I believe that the assist issue I talked about earlier isn't much of one. I originally had looked at assist per turnover ratio as opposed to assist per minute. But I wanted to make the totals equal.

Would Carter-William's be better in Utah then he is in Philadelphia or does Philadelphia style fit his style game? What would be the best system in the league for Trey Burke?

 

[nuraman00]

If more possessions lead to more turnovers, more possessions lead to more assists and maybe points (though the rate could produce more bad shots). So therefore I believe that the assist issue I talked about earlier isn't much of one. I originally had looked at assist per turnover ratio as opposed to assist per minute. But I wanted to make the totals equal.

Would Carter-William's be better in Utah then he is in Philadelphia or does Philadelphia style fit his style game? What would be the best system in the league for Trey Burke?

I don't think system is a factor for Burke. He's gotten all of the playing time, and quick athletic players to play with (Jefferson/Williams/Burks) that a rookie could ask for.

I did not think I would have described Jefferson as quick a year ago, but he's impressed me with how hard he runs for dunks.

Burke also has more talent around him. Favors with better offense, Kanter with a jump shot, and the 3 slashers mentioned above.

I didn't say that Burke would turn it over because he might play with a team with more possessions.

I said he'd turn it over because his rate of turning it over was too low, it wasn't sustainable.

It's like a relief pitcher having a 0.98 ERA one year. That can't be sustained the next year.

The difference is that Burke's drives don't break down the defense as well as Carter-Williams drives, or Hayward's drives. Not all drives are equal.

Shaun Livingston was similar. Good assist stats in high school, but when it came time to doing it in the NBA against NBA defenses, his drives just weren't as good.

If a PG is good, then he doesn't need talented teammates to create shots. Andre Miller lead the league in assists in 2001-2002, for a bad Cleveland team with Jumaine Jones, Chris Mihm, Wesley Person, Lamond Murray. Ricky Davis, their most talented scorer, only averaged 11 points, so it's not like Miller had a good scorer to get the ball to. Davis' style was more isolation anyways, so Miller wouldn't have gotten many assists from him. Cleveland was also 7th in the league in assists.

If Burke turns it over next year more, like I expect him to, will that make him worse? Probably not. It isn't about his assists, but rather what impact his drives have.

Remember the Grantland article that traced expected possession value?

+++++++++++
http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/utah-jazz/138133-grantland-expected-possession-value-article.html
++++++++++++++

I would not rank Burke's as high, right now.

Carter-Williams impacts the defense more, whether he gets credit with a stat for it or not.

Oladipo has also quickly improved since the All-Star break, he is someone to watch out for too. I haven't seen him play as much as Carter-Williams, and he didn't make as much of an impression on he when I did see him, so I can't comment on the specifics of his game. But I've read about his improvement.

There's a reason why when Hayward drives, the defense is on its heels more. And he's not taking away from Burke, as Burke usually gets the first opportunity to do something, but because not much happens, someone else has to try (Burks/Hayward).

I am not as impressed with fastbreak assists, so if that's how Carter-Williams or whomever is getting his assists, then it doesn't mean much. For example, I've mentioned before how Jrue Holiday's was not impressive the past two years. He mostly got them on fast breaks, but Philly had one of the worst offenses in the league. He couldn't create halfcourt opportunities, which are more valuable, and more of what happens in the playoffs. Not to say fastbreaks aren't important at all, but a halfcourt assist, or basket, shows that a team can use plan B and plan C, and still score.

Rubio is similarly unimpressive. He doesn't break down a defense in the halfcourt that well, it's mostly on fast breaks.

Goran Dragic, Jose Calderon, they break down defenses well. Even Monta Ellis is doing a solid job in Dallas.

If I had to make a decision right now, I would move Hayward to PG. He's not a good shooter, I want him shooting less. Burke is a better shooter than Hayward. Burke is only 2 behind Hayward in ORTG anyways, 101 to 103, and Burke's shot will get better, while the same can't be said for Hayward.

I would have Hayward doing what he does best, drive and kick, and some pick and rolls.

I wouldn't be worried about Hayward's defense, as there aren't that many quick PGs, and I feel Hayward's size and rebounding can help.

I also think Burke can adequately guard SGs, especially since there aren't many good ones. And SGs might have trouble with someone smaller driving.

Maybe early in the season Burke will show more progress, and he will show capable potential to be a starting ball handler. And that assessment would change.

But right now, his assists are like those other meaningless PGs who collect assists, but aren't as good as they seem because they aren't in a halfcourt.

The GS game was disheartening for several reasons. He wasn't even one of the two best guards on the floor. Rookies are supposed to have big games against veterans a few times a year, and announce their presence. Aside from two drives, his stats were more about the pace, then true creation ability. And if he got outplayed by two other guards, then it doesn't matter. He's supposed to be outplaying them.

I can point to games from Curry's rookie year, when he outplayed others, like what Burke/Burks/whomever are supposed to do.

Also, Favors and Kanter might be the worst passing frontcourt in the league. Most decent to good teams have at least one frontcourt player that can set up cutters or shooters for shots. Malone was a baller passer. Those drop passes to cutters helped a lot. Boozer was pretty good too. Malone or Boozer averaged more assists than Favors and Kanter combined. Even Chris Bosh is an average at best passer, and he can get 2+ assists, which is more than Favors or Kanter.

AK's passing was always a great asset.

 

[MHSL82]

I didn't say that Burke would turn it over because he might play with a team with more possessions.

I said he'd turn it over because his rate of turning it over was too low, it wasn't sustainable.

It's like a relief pitcher having a 0.98 ERA one year. That can't be sustained the next year.

I know. I just want assists, I don't care how they come. MCW has more and that bugs me. My counter was that MCW has more TOs. But then, you said more possessions = more TOs. That's why I contend more possessions = more opportunities to get an assist. 0.4 more per 48 is not worth 2.25 more TOs.

Yes, I know about your subsequent discussion about value of assists. Baby-steps. I just want more now. I don't care how they come. MCW has more and that bugs me. My counter was that MCW has more TOs. But then, you said more possessions = more TOs. That's why I contend more possessions = more opportunities to get an assist. 0.4 more per 48 is not worth 2.25 more TOs.

Yes, I know about your subsequent discussion about value of assists. Baby-steps. I just want more now. I don't care how they come. MCW has more and that bugs me. My counter was that MCW has more TOs. But then, you said more possessions = more TOs. That's why I contend more possessions = more opportunities to get an assist. 0.4 more per 48 is not worth 2.25 more TOs.

Yes, I know about your subsequent discussion about value of assists. Baby-steps. I just want more now.

 

[MHSL82]

My weird sense of humor. When I find myself repeating myself, even in different words, I want to repeat the rest verbatim.

 

[nuraman00]

The assist % of Burke and Carter-Williams are close. (Assist % is better to normalize the outlier pace that Philadelphia plays at).

Hayward is also close to both.

Oladipo, I'm not sure what to think. He think he got a lot better as a PG in terms of assists, after the All-Star break. But from the 3 Orlando games I saw, I didn't see much of a system in their offense. Also, Nelson was also there, as the other PG.

I think what the Jazz did is better for Burke/Hayward/Burks' mental abilities, than what Orlando did.

Maybe Orlando purposely kept it too simple for Oladipo. I remember Nelson, under the same coach Vaughn last year, ran a more thoughtful system. But with Oladipo, it appeared simpler.

I'd rather have the PG thinking of what he's see in the playoffs, than make it too simple.

Then again, 3 games isn't much of a sample, and I doubt I was paying close attention. I don't think I took any screen shots of those games, which meant nothing important stood out, or I wasn't paying close attention.

 

[nuraman00]

I also think having more talent, after a point, takes away from the PG's assist, but adds to the team's assist. Because the first person that's open isn't going to shoot, but he'll find someone for an even better look, who might find one more person with an open look.

For example, on a drive and kick to the perimeter, the wing shooter will pass it to the corner shooter. That's good for several reasons, one being that the corner 3-pointer is the easiest and highest % 3-pointer in the game.

Or on a pass to a cutter, the defenders will then converge on the cutter, who is already near the basket, and a secondary weakside teammate will then be open for another 2 foot layup.

 

[nuraman00]

The Jazz are ahead of Philadelphia but not Orlando in assist %.

 

[MHSL82]

Let's put it this way: the more assists, the better. The more assists created by the point guard, the better. The fewer turnovers, the better. I want a system that produces this. I am comfortable with Burke, though I know there are better PGs out there. He'll be better next year. I'm most concerned with his shooting. I am most concerned with the system and it's conducibility to assists.

 

[nuraman00]

Let's put it this way: the more assists, the better. The more assists created by the point guard, the better. The fewer turnovers, the better. I want a system that produces this. I am comfortable with Burke, though I know there are better PGs out there. He'll be better next year. I'm most concerned with his shooting. I am most concerned with the system and it's conducibility to assists.

I think the more assists created by bigs, the better. Big man assists lead to layups or 3-pointers, while guard assists can lead to long jumpers sometimes. And long jumpers, even if they go in, are the worst shot in the game.

If Gordan Hayward is shooting a long jumper, the system has failed. That's the worst shot the Jazz can have, since he's the worst shooter.

That doesn't mean most assists should be created by bigs, but more assists by the Jazz bigs compared to other teams' bigs.

Ok, here are the frontcourt assist rankings:

NBA Team Stats 2013-2014 - NBA Fantasy Basketball Stats

Jazz are 21st, but I think they're worse than that.

You can see all of the teams at the top are good offensive teams.

The best offensive teams, when the big gets the ball, have bigs creating even more for others.

I think the system is conducible to assists, as other players are able to create them. The opportunity is there, but Burke isn't able to do it yet. If Burks and Hayward can get assists, then Burke should be able to get assists, if he's good. He has the ball in his hands, and has the ball first, so he controls the action. The rest pick up the pieces after he tries.

Tinsley lead the team with assists per 36, with 7.5, so that shows that a PG is conducible to the most assists on the team, if he's good. Tinsley ran the same system.


Burke should also be compared to how others were at his age in NBA history, not his draft class. It's pointless to just limit the comparison to mostly players that will be out of the league, or less than rotation players, in a few years. Since 1/2 the players in a draft don't amount to much. Burke should be compared to good past players at this stage in their careers, not mostly bad current players.

And Burke has the offensive talent that neither Orlando and Philly have, even though talent doesn't necessarily hold assists back. Jefferson/Williams/Burks should get several assists on pick and rolls, that I think others are giving to them. And on drive and kicks.

Oladipo and Carter-Williams don't have a scoring big as good as Kanter or Favors.

But as I pointed out with the Andre Miller example, you can have untalented teammates, and still get them assists, because most of their FGs come on assists, if the PG is good.

 

[nuraman00]

Boston is another example. They might have the worst talent in the league, as none of their players get blocks, steals, or rebounds. At least Orlando and Philly can get some steals and blocks.

And, their two leading scorers, other than Rondo, shoot 41% and 40%, and average 16.7 points and 13.7 points, with a healthy portion of those points coming from the foul line (hence unassisted). So it's not like Rondo has even one talented player to pass to. Jeff Green and Jordan Crawford are those leading scorers.

And Rondo is still able to average 9.7 assists.

So this shows again that talent doesn't limit how many assists the PG gets, but rather the ability of the PG himself.

And, Jordan Crawford is even averaging 5.7 assists (similar to Hayward), but Rondo is still able to get a lot of assists. (Crawford's assists dropped a little when Rondo came back, but they're still there). Because Rondo is good drives and creating assists. It's about Rondo himself, not his teammates, not the system. It's his drives.

That's something I rarely see from Burke, scary drives that put the defense on its heels.

 

[nuraman00]

Let's put it this way: the more assists, the better.

I agree.

The more assists created by the point guard, the better.

A high assisting point guard doesn't guarantee a good offensive team.

Boston and Philadelphia have high assisting PGs, yet they are 25th and 30th in overall offense, and 24th and 15th in total assists, and 21st and 26th in assist % from the chart above.

A high assist PG can still exist on bad offensive teams.

Andre Miller on Cleveland actually became a pretty good offensive team, even though they were a bad team and he had bad teammates.

What those factors are, that make up a good offensive team, debatable. Maybe there's something to team assists also being a component to good offensive team, not just assists coming from one player.

I think big men assists have to be a component.

One can just look at the history of the Jazz. Malone, Kirilenko, Boozer all averaged 2-4 assists. So did Hornacek.

So I think being able to move the ball, and having one open loop leading to an even better open look, is a component that should be there.

I'm not saying that should be the main component, but every time I see a top offensive team, they are getting big man assists too.

This is where I see Kanter and Favors lacking, and I don't think they can contribute assists like Kirilenko and Boozer and Malone and Hornacek could.

The Jazz seem to have the other players in place (Burks/Hayward/Williams/Jefferson) to an extent.

Stockton was able to coexist with Malone, Hornacek, Eisley, all averaging 3-5 assists, and still get his, so it shows that they aren't taking away, but rather adding to team play and team offense.

So Hayward and Burks can still get assists like they do on the current Jazz, but it's up to Burke to do more himself, like Rondo/Stockton / other PGs discussed. If he's able to.

I think if you have a high assist PG and high assisting other players, then you'll have a good offensive team. But if you just have high assisting PG, it doesn't mean much, like Boston and Philly show.

And the goal is to stop the Jazz from being bad, not have one player collect stats but turn into a Boston or Philly or Minnesota.

 

[nuraman00]

The reason why big man assist are important is because they help the offense flow both inside-out, and outside-in (Malone shovel pass to Stockton for layups).

A good PG also helps the offense flow in such a manner, but having others do it too makes the team better.

Example: Shaq and Duncan got a lot of assists when they'd post up, get very close to the paint, then pass to a shooter.

David Lee does the same.

Boozer and AK would get assists on the perimeter, passing to cutters.

Malone would get assists every where. Same with Hornacek.