Reds roster

[JohnU]

The part of me that is optimistic dates back more than 50 years to the 1961 Reds, who had no reason at all to win a pennant. But that was then. If this team could do what Hutch's team did, it would be great.
Ain't gonna happen for one reason ... and it has nothing to do with metrics.

 

[Redsfan1507]

What sucks is the Reds aren't cheap- they are on a small market budget that makes about $110M/yr the max payroll. That's not among the lowest payrolls- it's about the middle of the pack. The simple truth is, the Reds don't get performance value for the roster they pay for.

I'd love to blame Dusty Baker, or Walt Jocketty, but much of the Reds malady has been "the Reds way" for much longer than they've been Reds. They pay too much of their payroll to too few players to win a lot (KGJ, Dunn and Larkin in previous version), and don't have the farm system to fill the roster with contract value, young upside talent- they fill it with lesser paid MLB castoffs with little upside, and pretends not ready for MLB duty instead. Why ? Because the systemic farm drought forces them to.

The current problem is Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Phillips and Mesoraco are a little over $70M of that payroll. That budget makes it more difficult to trade to "improve" the team short term via trades, because frankly, they can't afford another established-mid career MLB player. They have to trade for "prospects" that make minor league or minimum MLB salaries. There isn't much reason to give up 2-3 viable upside prospects to trade for what Jay Bruce has "established" as expected performance, or what declining skills, 35 year old Brandon Phillips is expected to produce, AND take their sizable contracts too. I don't blame the Reds for keeping them for ticket fodder, when they're only worth a couple 100th ranked prospects to other teams. Compounding farm ineptitude, they wait until Cueto, Latos, Leake and Chapman are at least possible value (lame duck free agents) to trade them. The entire organization is an idiocracy.

The Reds need a rebuild, but they need to start a lot further upstream than the MLB roster. They need to scout, sign and actually consistently develop players better. They also need a GM and staff that has more vision than signing washed up MLB platoon and pinch hit quality players to play full time positions on 2 year deals. That money would be better spent making better minor leaguers, so they could avoid filling a 30 year OF hitter void with those expensive has-beens and swingaholic under-performers like Hamilton and Bruce.

 

[chico ruiz]

accountability? by god 1507, i believe we see eye to eye on something. the only problem with your argument is there hasn't been one reds owner. so, the 'reds way' could have, and can be changed or modified. most of us on this board know what schott did to the farms. the gm's have changed many times. this so-called 'reds way' could have been changed. krivsky may have been in over his head, but -by god- he took some shots didn't he? did a lot of damage in 2 years. he did a good job overall with trades and drafting, his rule 5 work was outstanding, made some good low profile signings too. he just handed out too many multi-year contracts to too many mediocrities (does that sound familiar?). he didn't provide much bench help or a viable mlb catching situation as i recall. he paid players to go away (which may explain castellini's thoughts concerning phillips) in order to deal with the roster crunch and lost control and respectability. if he would have had a couple more years on the job and a patient owner, who knows? he was mostly on the right track with how mlb was changing in 2006-2007. unfortunately he wasn't a very good administrator, and he was held accountable. 'crazy' is what some on this board have called him. to be clear, i'm not calling for krivsky to be re-hired, but i thought that was why wallace was hired. he was going to bring stability to the organization,and sure up all aspects of a mlb organization moving forward in the new century. he was director of minor league operations and scouting with oakland. he helped start the ARL. he must have understood and seen the increasing importance of prospect development for mid / small market teams in the last 15 years. it's disappointing because his execution as the reds gm belies his pedigree. there was an interesting TML article recently that had a lot of speculation about projected income that did not materialize for the reds. buying out of minority investors was mentioned. the cardinals have more money etc etc. that's fine and i think we all understand these unforeseeable financial problems for any business. but, the one thing the writer does not adequately examine is the failure of the farm system and player development. i could forgive wally the plug-in signings that didn't work, if the farm system had been producing even a few mlb ready players. so, it's yet another smoke screen discharged for wally & co. if you're going to hide behind the economy and it's effect on the business of baseball, do everyone a favor and get out. i want somebody that won't whine and will figure out ways around the financial realities. for example, the pirates payroll was 88 million last year, and the reds was 117 million. now, compare the farm systems. it's a travesty. but, apparently, and according to all the enquirer writers, jocketty has done a good job since 2008, with the caveat of prevailing economic winds.

i believe (supported factually / no cigar smoke filled back room filthy lucre supposition) that earlier necessary trades were not made, with little or no prospect acquisition, cannot be explained away. there is no financial excuse. the TML writer is probably young and obsequiously going along to get along. but, as long as there are guys like him who are willing to jump into the buddy booth, with bob & wally, the situation will perpetuate itself. the reds upper management can't continuously be given a pass based on the ever changing world of finances. it's not fair to fans like us who know better. look at other teams in the same economic strata as the reds. take a look at their farm systems. hint: the comparison is not favorable to the reds. if you trade chapman to the yankees for four prospects, it might be time to take a look in the mirror. the yankees, of all teams, came up with 4 prospects that wally & co. were willing to accept as compensation. none of those 4 prospects were top ten yankee prospects in 2015. the yankees. the team with the supposedly horrible farm system. anybody else on this board understand what 1507 and i are driving at here?

the last paragraph in 1507's post explains why the reds may not even be a .500 club for several years to come. a mid / small market team, in this 'harrowing (thick with sarcasm)' financial climate cannot have a dysfunctional farm system and be consistently competitive. the really sad part is, in this kind of atmosphere, don't look for anything to change very soon. the worst part is they are making it harder and harder to be a reds fan. accountability starts at the top.

 

[JohnU]

I guess my question is:
What new turf have we plowed here?

 

[chico ruiz]

i agree with you john. it's time to move on. thanks for putting up with my polemics, and i do appreciate you guys, at least, reading them. i noticed the reds did something other teams have been doing for years now. they had a pitching summit in arizona. they assembled many of their young pitchers and established goals. i hope they put these young pitchers in positions where they can succeed. let them know it will be a struggle, but there is no pressure. just try to get better and improve with every appearance. the reds have nothing to lose, and they may get back to competitiveness quicker by doing so. it's usually the pitchers themselves who call these kind of gatherings, but it's a good direction to take with a very young group. establish these guys as the strength of your organization - which they definitely are now - with defined expectations, consistency, and accountability amongst themselves.

i'm not sure who all was there, and i'm just speculating, but the reds kind of tipped their hand, in terms of projected starters. but, on the other hand, there were no real surprises. bailey, desclafani, iglesias, lamb, sampson, stephenson, finnegan, and davis. i get the feeling from what i've read about his improvement trajectory that rookie davis may be a very pleasant surprise. what makes me optimistic is the long list of talented pitchers, in the organization. lorenzen, garrett, reed, moscot, mella, travieso, and cotham (to name a few, and just off the top of my head). i really believe there are some hidden gems in a very large group. probably won't know for a year or two, but they will start to emerge, and separate themselves, in 2016.

i'd like to see the reds do the same with the offense or position players. let bruce, cozart, and the other 'k' artists go for damn near nothing, if necessary. change the entire look and approach right now. make contact and speed the cornerstone. go ahead and bring up blandino, winker, and ervin. let peraza play shortstop. run, run, and run some more. maybe jagielo plays 3rd base, and suarez is in the outfield. i'd love to see the reds get on board with the idea of players being able to play multiple positions. the reds have a bunch of outfielders and potential outfielders including peraza and suarez. the idea of bruce and duvall at the corner outfield positions isn't very appealing to this red's fan. 5 straight weeks of bruce looking dazed and confused at the dish isn't my idea of watchable hardball. schebler is another 'k' in waiting. i could care less about the dimensions at GABP because the reds have absolutely nothing to lose in 2016. spikes up, pitch inside, hit behind the runner, sacrifice, bunt, etc etc. in other words, play aggressive baseball.

i heard these words of wisdom from an instructor recently at a mlb urban youth academy. "learn to hit first. use the whole field. after you learn to hit the ball and see that you're getting consistency swinging the bat and hitting the ball hard then you can start working on developing into a power hitter, trying to drive the ball," he said. he should have stopped with the words, "consistency swinging the bat & hitting the ball hard." if the power is going to come, let it come naturally. why was the second part of this sage advice necessary to give 13 year olds?

i noted in a recent post to look at how many times the royals struck out in 2015. 973 k's as a team. far and away the lowest number of any mlb team. what's crazier than that is 50 years ago it was the league average. we've heard and read all the explanations. specialized pitching. 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guys throwing 100mph. there is no doubt that having davis, herrera, and holland at the back end of a game is an advantage and probably, to a great extent, why the royals appeared in 2 straight world series. but, i don't believe, in the span of fifty years, that pitchers became twice as good as mlb hitters. no, my fellow posters, there is something else afoot here. what the hell am i trying to say? mickey mantle said he swung as hard as he could at every pitch. i don't know if he was sober when he said that, but he seemed earnest. i guess 75% of hitters in the last 3 decades must think they're mickey mantle. there's a difference between driving a ball and making contact. it's a subtle difference. does anyone remember the way rod carew swung at a pitch? if the word 'softly' could ever be used to describe a bat swing, it was carew's. best line to line hitter i ever saw. looser & quicker hands & wrists -i don't believe- ever existed. it was truly a thing of beauty, if you're into the subtleties of the game as much as i am. subtlety. a subtle more nuanced approach to hitting. why does a player like zack cozart always look to be swinging for the fences?

 

[JohnU]

KC proved that you don't have to strike out to win. Who else knew that? Well, 56,999,999 fans did.
I find it amusing that the experts value the K so much when it is a pitcher throwing it but find it nothing more than just 'an out' when it's a hitter.

I agree that balls-up would be an approach that the fans might like, so long as it isn't another Steve Smith, who confused making things happen with intelligent baseball.

The end is: Cincy's on-the-field outfit this year has the ability to win more games than we think. I just don't see the leadership in a brain-dead dugout to pull it off. You can't wish a team to play with intensity.

The way a team like the Reds can win is to be unconscious ... to believe they can't fail. It's happened in sports but ... when it happens is when the leadership recognizes that there are times to lead and times to not lead. I think we agree, Reds 2016 can't fail. Crap, the worst that can happen is they establish expectations.

Turning bad seed into a great potato ... this team could be fun to watch, so long as the dugout staff stays out of the way. In case you care, I do NOT think this dugout staff is qualified.

*

The strongest hitter I ever saw had 365 strikeouts and 492 walks over 5929 at bats (6469 PA)

THREE HUNDRED AND SIXTY FIVE STRIKEOUTS.

HERE IS HIS CAREER

 

[JohnU]

I read where the Reds expect Jess Winker to start the year with the Battttttts ... I guess I understand the 'arb clock' but does leaving this guy in the minors actually matter? If he can't hit, who cares what his 'arb clock' reads? Bring him up and if he can hit, re-negotiate his contract.

Or ... add another 4 or 5 left fielders for 2-year contracts because, if one Skip isn't enough, then two Xavier Pauls is better.

 

[eburg5000]

Has Skip signed with a team yet, Maybe we could get him back, and yes this is sarcasm if anyone has any doubts

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I saw where the Padres signed Skippy to a minor league deal with a ST invite. Go Padres!!

Winker has to be added to the 40 man sometime during 2016 to protect him from the rule 5 draft. So I'd like to see the Reds purchase his contract and call him up at some point this season. Anything less than 170 service days doesn't burn a arbitration clock year and he has upto 3 option years that stop the clock if he needs more seasoning.

Looking at the list of left fielders, can he be any less ready than that group?

Both Winker and Robert Stephenson will be 23 at some point this year. A lot of data suggest 26 is a players peak age. We're seeing too many prospects reaching the 25 man roster at 26+. Need to see them making a impact at age 26, not getting a September cup of coffee.

 

[JohnU]

The problem with not giving these guys a chance is that the front office seems content to trot out left fielders by the dozen and hope to find some kind of magic platoon potion. Why is the platoon so damned necessary? It's left fucking field. What was the point of trading for Marlon Byrd?

 

[eburg5000]

Not to be to hard on Skip. He wasn't a bad bench player. But that's what he is.

Maybe someone, somewhere, will come up and play left field in the next few years, and stick. I'm afraid by that time we will be hurting in another position

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't have any issue with them platooning LF or any other position as long as it's productive. Whether it's two or a dozen guys, if they're collectively going to hit .237.....why bother?

The sad part is the .237 that Reds' LF's hit last season is better than the .214 and .222 that center and right compiled. That's a combined .224 for the Reds' OF.

The OF struck out 448 times combined. I can't understand why there's not a path worn between home plate and the dugout. That's some really durable grass.

 

[JohnU]

Yeah, that overall outfield OBP was stuck in some kind of rut. When they obtained Byrd and brought in his 185 strikeouts, I sort of knew what the plan was ... but if the Reds believe that a guy averaging one home run a week is the same as a real offense, then they are playing Double Bubble baseball cards.
Oddly, if Bruce and Hamilton both get 2 more hits a week each, they will be at about league average. That's four more hits in an entire week for 2 players. Those hits could be instead of striking out.
It's also worth about one win a week -- or 26 more wins over a season.

64+26=90.

Alleging 4 or 5 come against the Parrots or Birds, the Reds are in contention.

 

[chico ruiz]

god bless castellini, i think he was delusional enough to actually believe the reds would compete last year. injuries can't be used as an excuse, because they happen to every team, and if last year didn't open reds fans eyes to the catastrophic lack of organizational depth, they will probably remain in their collective coma. marlin byrd was yet another jocketty-style plug-in that seemingly always has the disclaimer 'minor miracle required' attached. they've been like pharmaceutical commercials. may cause nausea, dizziness, loss of memory, or much worse. the side effects damage that was done to the farm system cannot be overstated. the pill for general anxiety disorder didn't work and now all you got is liquid coming out of your ass. to make matters worse, it's the same ol' shit just different bloody piles.

i'm in complete agreement on winker and stephenson. bring them up. let them take their lumps and, for the love of god, make your immediate and primary focus replacing them in the farm system. particularly outfielders, because we may well find out, in 2016, the only thing hamilton can really do, on a diamond, is run fast. jay bruce will be jay bruce. i'm not impressed with 30 / 90. he disappears in high leverage situations and will k a lot. a fuck of a lot. left field? left field?? somebody with better comedic chops than me, can surely come up with a joke for this sad ongoing laughing stock of the senior circuit 'out of left field(ers)' charade. i mean, you know, seriously guys, what the fuck? from the cynical ticket-selling ploy of inducting rose into the reds HOF to the dishonest spin wielding by sphere of influence PR & media, i'm starting to get sleepy. real got-dam sleepy.

 

[JohnU]

The deal is, with Winker, if he's only a 0 WAR, he's no worse than the other scrubs the Reds would hire. The outside chance that Duvall can hit MLB pitching exists but he's not a lot better than anybody else we've seen. We just got him in a trade, which somehow makes it different I suppose.
Hamilton will continue to play but not hit.
Bruce has to play, mainly because the owner is in love with him.

With Stephenson, a slightly different issue since he's a pitcher and the innings - on-the-arm is kind of important.
But there is not a good reason to leave him at Louisville.
The Reds are going to lose 96 games this year, no matter who's on the field. Just finding some spare parts until the "kids" are ready is a policy that has shown to fail time and time again.
I honestly think the arb clock is about the 2nd lowest priority this team faces. The other is who coaches first base.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Definitely going to need a program to know who the Hell is on the team next year.

Geez...if you live long enough, those old clothes are in vogue again. What genius figured out that putting the ball in play was important ? The Royals did that...and didn't hit many homers. And they really didn't steal than many bases last year-without looking I'd guess the had fewer SB in '15 than in '14...but the pitched, played D and put the ball in play...and ran the bases without getting 2 dozen guys killed at home, or running into a ton of 1 out, 2 strike steal attempts, that wound up resulting in more K-out/Throw out DP's than 6-4-3 would have.

Wasn't the KC managerial genius in their dugout a former dumbschidt fire for some other loser franchise (Brewers) ? Hmmm. He must have learned a lot since then, huh ?

 

[JohnU]

Brewers were an ascendant team with Yost.

 

[Redsfan1507]

If Mesoraco can swing a 2014 bat, He's my LF for about 60 games a year. I might let a Lefty like Waldrop get that many games when Meso is catching. The nameless horde can pick up the other 2 games and we'll be fine...never happen though. The Reds damned sure aren't putting a $14 mil player on the bench, so Phillips and Bruce are playing when they aren't on the DL. 3b is going to be Suarez, or Peraza if one doesn't take SS from Cozart before its over. If Hamilton can't hit, and Yorman Rodriguez can't either, Peraza may be the CF, if he can hit. There is always Phil Ervin. This team may have the fewest hits in MLB.

 

[HammerDown]

 

[HammerDown]