Reds roster

[Tubbs1518]

To a point I agree with what you are saying, but what would you have the Reds do? Let Cueto walk at the end of the year for nothing? What good does that do them? Even if Finnegan and Lamb are never aces, if they both develop into big league pitchers, then they help the Reds more than nothing.

 

[JohnU]

Well, I did actually claim that as lefties, they both hold some value.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I like a lot of what the Reds have done. This team needed to be torn down. It wasn't competing the way it was constructed and we had to get rid of some top players we were never going to be able to keep. Cueto was never coming back here, so I don't mind what we got for him. The two lefties have value, even if they are middle/end of the rotation guys or good bullpen guys. On top of the 2 lefties, Reed is currently our 7th rated prospect according to MLB so he has talent to develop into something too. I liked this trade a lot for a guy who was a half season rental for someone that we were never keeping.

I don't mind the Frazier deal much either. Frazier was good, but he was close to 30 and his contract was gonna be up about the time this team started to be able to even think about competing again. I don't think the addition of Peraza should be undersold. We still don't know if Hamilton will ever develop into a hitter and Peraza has legit top of the order talent. If Hamilton can learn to get on base a little better, we have a very potent, young 1/2 combination for a long time potentially sitting there and that would make a world of difference with a guy like Votto behind them. On top of Peraza, Schebler has some skill. He may never be a starting LF for us, but he has some power and can be a good platoon player or bench player. Dixon is an unknown and likely develops into nothing, but he was a 3rd round pick so someone saw something in him.

I also liked the Leake trade. Mella is a really talented pitcher who has good stuff. He has a good fastball and his Curve and Change-up have real potential to them. I liked Leake, but he wasn't someone who was a front end pitcher and Mella has the talent to be. Duval has hit well in the minors and is another guy with power. He probably never develops into more than a bench player, but can play some LF for now until someone better comes along and can be a pinch hitter and 4th OF.

I hated seeing Chapman go, but if we were going to keep him at closer, we were better off trading him because he would have been wasted on this team for the next 3 years or however long he is under contract. We aren't winning enough to need an elite closer and let's be honest, this team wasn't making him a starter. Davis could be the closer of the future or he could be put into the rotation. He looks to have the ability to do both. Jagielo is a power hitting 3rd baseman who strikes out too much right now, but will take walks so his OBP should be ok. They are the Reds 8 and 9 rated prospects at the moment. Cotham looks like he will be in the bullpen immediately and he pitched very well as a reliever last year. Tony Renda is a scrappy 2B who will put the ball in play, take a walk and get on base. He isn't ever going to hit for power, but is a guy who will stick in the majors a long time IMO. Plays good enough defense and could be a top of the order type player. Overall I think we got a decent haul.

Overall I like the moves the Reds have made. Their minors has a LOT of arm talent in Stephenson, Garrett, Mella, Reed, Davis, Travieso, Santillan, Howard, Crawford, Lamb, plus others and some good position talent too in Peraza, Winker, Stephenson, Jagielo, Blandino, Ervin, Schelber, Trahan, Rodriguez, Acquino. The Reds have to develop these guys, which is where most of my fears come from, but if they can, they have set themselves up very nicely for the future IMO.

 

[JohnU]

Nice analysis. I was looking today at some of the prospects, esp. the pitchers. Not sure how many Nolan Ryans are in the mix, but there are probably a lot of Homer Baileys. I think Peraza is the real deal.

I expect the Reds to punt on Jay Bruce. His value just isn't there.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Nice analysis. I was looking today at some of the prospects, esp. the pitchers. Not sure how many Nolan Ryans are in the mix, but there are probably a lot of Homer Baileys. I think Peraza is the real deal.

I expect the Reds to punt on Jay Bruce. His value just isn't there.

The Reds likely hold Bruce until July and hope he gets hot at the right time to give him a tiny bit of value to someone. The Mets or someone could be looking for their Cespedes about that time and Bruce may be the closest thing available.

I'm not sure we have any top of the league pitchers, tho Stephenson could be, but we have a lot of guyes who look to be 2s/3s/4s and we need those still too. I think our farm system is in a good place, IF the Reds can develop them. That's the big question.

 

[JohnU]

Bruce's problem is fairly obvious but I don't know how many teams want a guy in the lineup who hits a home run on the average of once a week and really doesn't contribute much offense otherwise. I could see Houston taking a gamble on Bruce.

 

[JohnU]

We let another awesome talent -- Kris Negron -- get away. Signed with the Cubs.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's been a few go to Boston. Ryan LaMarre, Chris Dominguez, and Bren Boesch all signed minor league deals with the Bosox. Not sure what they're thinking in Beantown.

 

[JohnU]

Odd, but at one time I thought any or all of these guys had a chance to contribute in Cincy. None ever came close.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Boesch is a HOF AAA player, but the lights go out when he's put on the big stage. He looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane.

 

[JohnU]

The bad news is

Ryan Ludwick retired

The good news is

Wandy Rodriguez still hasn't retired.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Yeah... I saw where he signed a minor league deal with the Astros.

I might have to buy the MLB TV package if WR makes the club... I'd hate to miss a Wandy start. Seems like half his career starts were against the Reds.

 

[Redsfan1507]

My take on this "rebuild" revolves around my "confidence" in the builder(s).

If you had a 6 year old patio that crumbled, would you want the same dudes to pour the concrete this time ?

IMO, the Reds are just dumping as much salary as possible, and re-rolling the dice on the next decade of minor leaguers...my pessimism is due to this rationale-Reds vision and ability to develop talent don't impress me, so my confidence in the Reds knowing a recipe for success, much less sticking to it, aren't high. I think they're just hoping a lot of new faces will culminate in a new core being randomly ready to win at some future date, and until then, a few recognizable players with untradeable contracts will sell enough tickets to keep the lights on .

This isn't a new problem- I've railed at nauseum about the Reds system being so inept they haven't produced a single everyday OF that could hit .260 in back to back years for about the last 30 years..but it defines why I think the Reds need to rebuild their farm instructional process before different results can be produced at the MLB level. The real problem is, I'm not sure the Reds have the knowledgeable resources needed to start that, or the fundamental rigor to commit to it going forward.

 

[JohnU]

Resources can be obtained. The data is there, the process has been identified and the systems are in place for teams to succeed if they take advantage of those resources.

What Cincy has been hoping for since they signed Corey Patterson and that ilk was that players with zero up-side would somehow realize that their only hope was to turn into Roy Hobbs.

Billy Hamilton is not going to learn to hit.

No
matter
what Roy Hobbs
told
him.

 

[JohnU]

Arroyo signing a deal with the Nats is a bit of a surprise, honestly. I figured the Reds would offer him a contract. Maybe they did. Bronson wants a ring.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think Arroyo already has a ring from his days in Beantown, but all things being equal I think most people would rather play for a contender. From quotes Arroyo made to MLB.Com the Reds' offer just wasn't in the ballpark. Reports are the Nats offered $2M if he makes the club and up to $6M in additional incentives.

The Reds probably countered with a signed Pete Rose bobble head and a $25 Skyline Chili gift card with free cheese and oyster crackers as incentives.

 

[JohnU]

I can see where the Reds would be reluctant to push that too far. Skyline Chili is its own reward.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I wonder who the Reds see as their next option after Arroyo signed elsewhere?

They apparently aren't looking to spend much more than the minimum, so the chances of finding a veteran that can actually still get the side out before the other team bats around looks somewhat daunting.

Aaron Harang anyone?

 

[JohnU]

Kyle fuckin' Lohse

Here's the list

FREE AGENT PITCHERS

 

[chico ruiz]

random thoughts on the strength of the organization - the reds young pitchers.

i think the crown jewel of the cueto trade will eventually (hopefully sooner than later) be the left arm of cody reed. he and amir garrett have a lot of mileage left on their wings. both got stronger as the season wore on last year. i saw garrett pitch last year, and i i thought he should be with the big club. i know it was against single a players, but it was impressive because he got stronger as the game went on. he had real good command and was working both sides of the plate against righties and lefties, with delivery / motion repetition consistency. the video i've seen and what i've read about reed make me think potential rotation topper.

finnegan is definitely a mlb pitcher. the thing that scares me just a little bit about his situation is the reliever / starter back and forth. i've seen a lot of young pitchers in the last ten years get ruined because of it. i don't know why it happens, or why there is indecisiveness, but the teams who have the most success with their pitching prospects define roles early and clearly. by the way, i'm sure that is easier said than done. at some point it seems to me you are presented with the question do we want a very very good set-up pitcher or do we want another middle of the rotation quality starter??

robert stephenson. the reds #1 pick in 2011. the same year gerrit cole was the overall #1. this has to be the year he makes it to the big club. right? it's time for him to be on the roster and pitch at the major league level. start him. he's been showcased for 5 years now. it's put up or shut up time, or leave him at louisville to get injured and never fulfill his status as a reds #1 pick. if they don't think he has the stuff, trade him.

moscot's small sample size gave me the impression he's not afraid of a mlb mound at all. he's aggressive, confident, and will challenge the likes of mccutcheon. if nothing has changed through spring training, start him. same with iglesias. the reds paid a lot of money for him. start him. cumulative innings will be an issue. the inevitable 6 man rotation question, as we all know, is difficult. managers lean on the later inning bullpen flexibility matchup thing. the other alternative is one less bench player. maybe price can get creative with his roster and slide a pitcher in and out without substantially effecting routine or stretching. he's the brilliant genius ex-pitching coach. maybe it's time he put that big brain to work and get innovative. the reds sure as hell don't have anything to lose. i understand that innings pitched is the biggest problem the reds will face this year with a young starting staff. desclafani is the only likely starter having pitched anywhere near 200 innings in a season. so, something will have to give eventually later in the season. but again, there really is nothing to lose, and they should have plenty of arms still available in late august into september.