Reds roster

[JohnU]

Assuming we don't see many major deals for awhile,

Votto, Peraza, Cozart, DeJesus and Suarez are the infielders.
Barnhart and Mesoraco catching. I think you keep a third catcher (Wallach) because ...

Left field is probably Duvall. If Mesoraco needs the at-bats, he has to play LF at least one day a week.

Does anybody really think Hamilton and Bruce will ever hit?

Negron is still cheap meat.

Suarez to left field? 3B is a hard position to fill.

Pitching ... Descalfani, Igelsias, Lamb, Moscot and maybe .... yeah Arroyo.
Moscot moves to long relief after Bailey is back, or Bronson (if signed) jettisoned.
Bullpen: Finnegan, Jumbotron, Lorenzen ... and a few guys to be named later.

Any hope that Chapman sticks around? I gotta think he will be dealt.

Any interest in Mike Leake?

Some of these guys we got in trades aren't clear enough to consider.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Yeah... gonna be a long season (if not half a decade). Especially in this division.

 

[Redsfan1507]

If Suarez can't play 3b, no one can above single-A can either-at least without hitting .175 doing it. The Reds might have to do the "experiment" moving a 3bclueless player there. Kinda like Nick Esasky, Dan Driessen, back in the day...where you take an already struggling hitter and expect his 25 errors not to distract him. The Reds now have 4-5 guys that play SS. The bad news is, the only one that plays it well is Cozart, and IMO, his ability to even play come ST is questionable, much less improve on how he hit before the injury. if Phillips is traded, they might get another AA+ "prospect" that will draw Spring Training lip service opportunity at 2b/3b.

Is Bruce gone too ? Either way, the Reds had zero OF that could be expected to hit above .250 anyway. That hasn't changed, it just got cheaper to hit that bad. IMO, Mesoraco is the new Reds obvious answer to ignore. He needs to play another position than C, half the time. My prediction- he won't play 4 games other than C all year, even if 3b and LF hit .180 all year.

 

[JohnU]

Presumably Hoover is the first guy up to be the closer, which is essentially a game of follow-the-pea under the thimble. For the moment it's still Chapman, who I would really rather see them trade now than later. The distraction will be enough.
I didn't watch this disaster much after August last year so whatever range that Suarez has is lost on me. I think his SS play was more than bad enough to make me leery of his skill at 3B, though it seemed his errors were more on fielded balls than thrown balls.
A Phillips trade is still interesting to me because he's going to see Baker, who would doubtless like to have him. Not sure, however, what the Nats have in mind and if there's dispute early on, Dusty vs. his new employer and a volatile guy like Phillips ... fun in Tune-town!

 

[Redsfan1507]

Writers seem to remember Dusty & BP having a more chummy relationship than I do. Of course, as a guy that disagreed often with Dusty's managerial moves, possibly I noticed more anti-Dusty sentiment than others.

I remember after a BP "Dustup", Phillips making a comment that his opinion didnt matter, because Dusty was his "daddy" and if he wanted to play, he had to do what his "daddy wanted". I also remember Dusty's early Reds days. and Phillips making comments about hustle rules for Dunn and Griffey being different than for he and Encarnacion ( who were both benched for a game for not hustling).

Dusty is one of the least colorblind managers I've ever seen, and one of the most stubbornly opposed to change, so having Phillips again would do more to soothe Dusty than just his glove and bat, IMO. BP may still have lots in the tank, but if he does slump or decline, fans criticism of Baker Bias toward washed up ex-players will resurface in D.C. I'm sure.

If Phillips goes, I wish him good luck, especially with Dusty. Humility has a way of resulting over the reality of time.

 

[JohnU]

Sounds like BP is a bit leery about some of what you express, 1507. The part about playing time seems to be in the conversation and I am a bit unclear about how he expects to sweeten the pot over what he's owed. He has veto power over a trade and clearly has done so -- so far.
What the Reds need is both Phillips and Chapman on a team that has already tried to trade them both.
Incentive to win ... what?

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's being said BP wanted the Nats to add years to his contract, and they declined. I think he's 32 ? Middle infielders with warning track power don't usually look too good at 34, without a PED boost. IMO, in 2 years, BP will be hard pressed to find a deal without a pay cut.

 

[JohnU]

What concerns me with the BP and Chapman deals is that the Reds are not getting their way on anything.
I can see the front office starting to be pissed off at this, which means ... dump at all cost.
It's a poor business model when the athlete dictates terms based on having been signed in good faith.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'll correct myself- BP is already 34. Probably worthless in 2 years, so I'd try to get him somewhere if I could. I can't see what's changed- the Reds have been rejected on BP offers for at least 2 years. Maybe there may be more to dislike behind that smile ? Dunno details of who was picking up BP's salary, but I damned sure wouldn't be adding years to an already expensive contract on a 34 year old middle infielder that normally hits .265 with 14 HR. That said, he may be worth more to the Reds than he can bring in trade value...but ultimately, I don't think that's first on the Reds mind- they want to rid themselves of his contract.

The Reds haven't made a trade from a position of strength for a long time- they always have their backs to the free agent or some other wall. In contrast, their history of trading 3 prospects for 1 name is catching up a bit. The farm is thin now.

 

[JohnU]

Considered, this team has no strengths.
Starting pitching is still far too thin and unpredictable.
The bullpen has been jettisoned.
The hitting is at best No. 4 in the division and probably 12th in the league.
The HR power has been halved with Byrd and Frazier gone.
The defense is now weaker at 3B and probably LF.
Where do we go from here?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, we have to hope the players the Reds CAN'T trade are pleasant suprises.

Votto needs to keep hitting the 25% of pitches thrown his direction that can be gotten a bat on, and walk 300 times. He may only drive in 50 runs, but his OBP could be .500...Bailey needs to come back and be the number one pitcher he was paid to be. Hoover needs to close out all 23 of his save opportunities. BP needs to hit (2nd, not 4th) and score runs, Jay Bruce needs to hit above .250 in more than one month, hit 35 HR and drive in however many are on- maybe 85 ? Billy Hamilton needs to A) Bunt once once or twice a game, instead of once or twice a week, OR B) get on the Brett Boone Vitamin S diet, gain 35 pounds and hit 25 more HR a year. Cozart needs to hit enough so they Reds can't afford him the following year. Suarez needs to accumulate whole year stats for whole year PT....and Mesoraco needs to get 500 AB, hot 30 HR and drive in 100. He can't do that with 250 Catcher only AB's. Hopefully, someone in the Reds organization can have some analyst give Price that report in triplicate before the All-Star break.

...and most importantly, the Reds have to hope the farm, and all those salary dump trades come through, and the NLC, other than the Reds, are the most injury riddled division in MLB.

Hell, if all that goes our way, the Reds might play .500.

 

[JohnU]

IF IF IF I could see something that resembles a KC style of offense from a hitting coach, I'd be optimistic that this team is quicker this year and can generate some small-ball offense.
Small-ball, btw, is not winning games 1-0 .... it's winning games by beating the crap out of people a double and a triple at a time. Small ball is actually quite simple -- it's called making contact. Screw the shift. Hit the ball and the shift goes away.
But there is no way whoever the coach is going to be -- as if I even cared to look up his name -- is going to realize that putting the bat on the ball 300 times is better than 150 ... Whiffaholics who generate one home run a week are going to get you 25 HR and nothing else. Striking out 150 times is NOT the best way to play baseball.
But that's not going to change because the dugout staff is brain-dead and their only approach to "metrics" is that stealing second base is easier on a 2-0 count than on an 0-2 count.

 

[JohnU]

Villarreal and Mattheus are back on minor-league deals. Not sure how that happened but if the Reds plan to stock their bullpen with these guys, the over-under on 100 losses just got ripe.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's a pretty bleak outlook, any way you slice it.

 

[eburg5000]

Been awhile sense I last posted, not sure what the Reds want to do with all these average minor league players, but I don't think it will be winning. I'm sure management will try to sell on "they are rebuilding" but I say that is a crock of shit. They as has been said here many times are just dumping salary. I say some fans will buy into it the first month of the season. Bit when the Reds are 2 and 25 ,you can sit anywhere in the ballpark. If you go

 

[chico ruiz]

i find baseball endlessly fascinating. the numbers tell much, but certainly not all. what various mlb clubs emphasize, how they organize to accomplish their goals, and how they develop their prospects are other parts of the story. the reds upcoming pitching staffs for 2016-2018 are already very interesting to me. i see a bright future there, if the reds organization manages and develops these kids correctly. that's the part, as a reds fan, that concerns me the most. they'll have top shelf pitching prospect talent stacked up from cincinnati to louisville to pensacola to daytona to dayton to billings. i'm not sure i trust them to do the right thing by these kids, to reach their potentials, or for the betterment of the big club. i really don't. but, for now, i'm optimistic. the sheer numbers, talent, and odds indicate 8-10 of them becoming above average to good mlb pitchers. i'm not sure there's a #1, but there's a lot of good pitchers. cueto didn't exactly look #1ish when he was 22 either. but, he was pitching for the reds, and not the bats.

what gets lost in the shuffle of my insane pre-spring fantastical enthusiasm is homer bailey's 18 million dollar salary for 2016, 19 million in 2017, 21 million in 2018 and 23 million in 2019. i'm still curious what the decision-making process was in signing bailey to that huge contract. a less expensive, more durable, and younger 4 or 5 starter would have been my focus. fans are often surprised when i tell them that mike leake -who made his mlb debut 3 years after bailey did- has more wins, a better era, and more innings pitched than bailey. at the time of the signing, the reds did not have any top shelf pitching prospects in the farm system. at the very least, it's fair to say, there was no depth. that probably factored into their decision to sign bailey. no one can foresee injury, and i wish him the best, but i think his days as an elite, or even effective, mlb starter are over. i've written before about some gm's foresight with regard to the progressively over-priced starting pitcher market. the smart ones recognized it over a decade ago and reset their strategies based on financials and talent. this is also why the above paragraph is so important for the reds to get right. when you compare bailey's contract to phillip's contract the focus becomes much sharper.

finnegan, lorenzen, stephenson, garrett, mella, reed, davis, travieso, santillan, howard, crawford, moscot, stephens, rainey, mahle, strahan, romano, etc etc etc are 24 or younger. roughly 20 pitchers with moderate to high mlb success potential. the reds have to decide who is a starter, and who is not, quickly. they can't all be starters. there's a lot of talent equity here that should be utilized sooner than later, with definitive role assignments so they can develop, work, and stretch accordingly. the reds have a bad habit of trying to make all their pitching prospects starters. they don't ultimately transition them unit they get to cincinnati. that approach can't go on indefinitely; especially in this overloaded circumstance. but, reds management seems to think it can. figure it out guys and move forward, otherwise you will have outstanding pitching prospects forever floundering around in your system. if you can't, start bundling some of them in trades with bruce or phillips. you seem hellbent on trading the old second baseman. toss him a couple extra million bucks and be done with it. call it a liar's fee and figure out a way to right it off. the reds have been dragging their feet for too long, and this is partly why i don't trust them to handle their young talent -especially the pitching- correctly. the reds can't mess around with stephenson, garrett, reed, finnegan, lorenzen, lamb, or moscot. decisions -good decisions- need to be made before they get caught up in the arbitration, time served, accounting part of it, that will force and dictate decisions for them. please make these decisions from a position of strength and want, not necessity, desperation, and need. i've observed other clubs handle a glut of talent deftly. there is no reason the reds can't do the same. simply put (imo); many of them are blossoming at the same time. the reds can't afford to have them blocking each other to cincinnati. this is where jocketty, price, and the whole farm system will earn their bones. riggins, jenkins, power, darwin, brown, ebert, and etherton are all on the clock. they all should be working together as i key this sentence. maybe even corky miller can have an impact. it will be very interesting to see how the reds assess, develop, and use this time, to put together, what should be, one of the better pitching staffs in mlb in the next few years. for the record: i don't, for one second, think that this will be easy for the reds. i'm just keying out some thoughts based on what i've seen other organizations start several years before arriving at consistent competitiveness. there's no magic wand. these guys are still human, which means; who the hell knows what's going to happen.

i saw something in 2009 that, at first, pissed me off, but then gave me hope and optimism about the human spirit. yes, even baseball can do that on occasion. i was at a game where fans were teasing and mocking (actually, yelling horrible things) joey votto. it was shortly after he returned from the DL for anxiety / depression. i don't even want to write what some fans said. it was that egregious. the way votto handled that with dignity, grace, and acceptance was remarkable. he was hurting, and it was obvious. but, he wanted to come back to the game he loves and contribute, and to have something to focus on other than killing yourself at 3 in the morning. it's real and painful. it's heartbreaking. if you've ever had a friend who has died young, under similar circumstances, you know exactly of what i write. votto was only 25 years old. people who cast aspersions -some on these very pages- about things they have no knowledge or understanding of should be ignored or relegated to the status of non-human. when they say things - like "it's all in his head" - they are correct, but not for the ignorant reasons they are remarking. it's like saying, if a athlete completely tears a ACL, "ah, it's all in his knee." as if he should still be able to get out there and play. the stupidity is spectacular. anyway, joey went 2 for 4 and hit a home run. the next year he had one of the best offensive seasons i've ever seen and was the mvp of the NL. that's partly why i remain optimistic about the reds for the near future.

 

[chico ruiz]

it's going to be a rough 2 years for us reds fans, to be sure. but, there are some interesting positives and possibilities. the reds can play without any pressure of playoff expectations. sounds weird, but i think it will help these young ballplayers. i'm using the original definition of a ballplayer. a baseball player makes contact, has above average speed (i've heard it referred to as baseball speed. i love that because it makes me remember how good it felt to read the ball off the bat going first to third, or get an instinctively good jump at any time), and plays good defense all over the field. more players could play various positions at the turn of the last century. hell, they use to leave their damn gloves in the field. in fact, i think of it as less specialization, not more. as a manager or gm you have to turn approach and conventionality on their heads in 2016+. be as innovative as possible. not bill veeck innovative, but john mcgraw pioneering and radically aggressive. simplify what is thought to be complicated or difficult. make it common and everyday. the less specialization, the better. some of these writers make it sound like having a 'athletic' player on your team is a coup. stressing defense (or the basic baseball idea of saving runs, which isn't a new concept at all. it just seems that way because they made a stat out of it). athleticism? i love this one. maybe that is the right idiom to use, but it's probably more accurately described as having more players with the ability to play different positions. it gives managers more flexibility with switches, platoons, or maybe an extra pitcher on the 25 man. it's ironic, because as 1507 points out, there's nothing new here. it just seems that way because we had to endure 2 decades of bonds, canseco, and mcgwire's increasing hat sizes, shrinking dicks (no wonder those guys were always mad), and dinger hoax. walk a guy or 2 and hit a home run. strike out, long flyout, or just play home run derby. i don't know about you guys, but that was tough to watch. the neo-'dead'ball era is what it was.


think like john mcgraw in 1904. who the hell says you have to do anything by the 21st century book? in fact, i think analytics -read the right way- is getting baseball back to the way it was played 100 years ago, and opening new avenues of deconstruction. give the fans something to get excited about. practice bunting in spring training 10 times more than you usually would. throw inside like bob gibson circa 1968. fuck it. play baseball. big boy baseball. you can do it if you don't have a bunch of players making 10 million bucks apiece. let votto force runners in with walks for $250,000 a pop. the reds have nothing to lose, and that can be a good thing. something i do not look forward to are corner outfielders (duvall & bruce) striking out 400 times in 2016 because jocketty, or whoever, thinks they'll hit 70 dingers. and god knows none of us wants a re-run of the defensive clown show we all witnessed with adam dunn. put somebody out there that can get to gappers, has good baseball speed, and makes contact at the plate. establish what kind of team you're going to be on day one of spring training. the reds led all of mlb in steals last year. add 50-100 more to that number in 2016. i tell you i would by a full season ticket package if the reds were to play this kind of overall aggressive style of game. very aggressive. i think it might very well help price too. give maddon a taste of his own medicine two-fold 2008 rays style. the reds have nothing to lose now. why not play an ultra aggressive brand of baseball not seen since the 1940's? right? give hamilton, suarez, peraza, ervin, dejesus, winker, rodriguez, etc etc. bunt & steal signs until they are dizzy. don't buy into the conventional definition or wisdom of anything. have guys in the line-up who make contact, don't mind sacrificing, and move runners along in front of them, or -at least- don't strikeout 30% of the time. make pitchers think twice about pitching completely around votto. the fly in the ointment is jay bruce. the reds should have traded him when they had the chance last summer. i'm just spitballing here, but something tells me the reason it's been difficult trading him is because most teams do not want him. it's not the money. it's the skill set. average defender, with very average speed, who k's a lot. if i were a gm i would consider him a huge risk at a double digit million dollar salary. jay is a dinosaur lumbering around occasionally running into a tree. you can pencil him in for 150 k's minimum right now. he's a rally killer that can't move the runner. i'm repeating myself now. my apologies. i hope some of this digression made sense.

 

[JohnU]

Part of the idea between hell-or-high water baseball, meaning doing all the things that defy common wisdom ... let's compare the bunt and run game to the Harlem Globetrotters. They play the game like that, but let's not forget ... if they had to, they could beat a lot of teams in regular basketball.
The Reds, up and down, don't have the skill set to deviate. I look for about 3.2 runs a game and a team ERA just north of 4.25.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The concensus on Jay Bruce is he's the Reds version of Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates waived PA opting to not offer arbitration, he cleared waivers and remains unsigned to my knowkedge. JB would be even more upside down in value coming off two down years, he has a $12-13M price tag and a team would have to send a prospect or two over to satisfy the Reds. The off season has been slow to thin the free agent OF crop and the Reds are probably better off hoping he has a strong first half in 2016 and a compatible trade partner materializes at the trade deadline. IMO, they should have waited on the Chapman deal as well.

The Reds goal looks two sided this off season, acquiring marginal prospects in some deals while appearing to be slashing payroll in other trades or attempted trades. Phillips would have been of the slashing type and the Chapman deal didn't garner enough to be viewed otherwise. The pending domestic violence case played a role, but why the urgency? A possible suspension may have added a 4th arbitration year and sadly teams and fans alike have short memories when their team is in contention in July.

IMO, the Reds often see value where others see none. It's a great scenario if it's the reality of the situation. But one look at this team's depth chart and the opposite appears to be the case. The thought they were going to make a quick turn around by trading lame duck free agents for top shelf prospects is ludicrous. They've gotten a few marginal prospects, but hardly the windfall they were expecting.

I think Chico may have been touching on another topic when he mentioned bundling. The Reds have been slow to identify the cream of their farm system pitching and are allowing once higher regarded prospects to lose value as a result. A team should be able to evaluate their own talent and move prospects before outside organizations realize the deficiencies. A lot of the prospects the Reds are getting in trade fall into this catagory. The other club has already determined they don't fit into their future plans and have traded them while some value remained.

 

[JohnU]

Stands to reason the Royals were not going to dump pitchers who would be, in the long run, good enough to pitch at the top level, since they knew Cueto was going to be a rental anyhow. Finnegan and Lamb are probably big-league talents to some degree but neither is an ace. As lefties, they hold some value.
Getting Duvall for Leake was about right from the Giants point of view. Doesn't appear they even tried to sign Leake with clear intent on going after Cueto and Samardzija. They might wish they had Leake. We get another left fielder.