potential Fantasy football myths

[MilkSpiller22]

1. Stay away from Rookie TEs- this seems like a myth to me, however true it seems... in recent history, how stable is the TE position in fantasy?? it has really been a top heavy, and very weak after the top 5 position... So is it really that the position is bad for rookies, or that the position is just so inconsistent in the first place?? the real questionis, if a team has there number one TE as a rookie, should you really question the rookie status...
- looking at the top 3 rookie TEs, I would say Njoku has everything going for him to be a top 10 TE in fantasy... He has the opportunity that not many Rookie TEs ever have... OJ howard, will likely start the season behind Brate, and Engram is in a high powered offense who is likely at best the #3 receiver...


2. Be scared of the sophomore jinx- the sophomore jinx is a real thing, BUT we identify it to be too much of a negative... The reason I think it is a real thing is simply, how many rookies had a good enough season for fantasy owners to even consider them to be candidates for the sophomore jinx?? not many... So clearly, the pool of potential sophomore jinx players are very small, and they are all high achievers there rookie season... and what do we know about any player who has found success?? teams will focus on them more, and adjust to the players skills... Basically that is all the sophomore jinx is, opposing teams adapting to the potential new weapon... the question is, can that player adjust back... the best way to predict who will have the sophomore jinx or not is the same way to predict any other players projections...

3. Don't draft players with the same Bye week- IMO, unless you are in the deepest of deep leagues or any weird format, worrying about bye weeks is not a good thing... My first question I like to ask people, how many players who you drafted will still be on your team by the first bye week?? If you cant figure out how to replace a bye week player on the fly, then something is wrong with you as a fantasy owner... So why worry about Bye weeks at all?? haven't seen a good argument for it... Even if you draft too many players from one bye week, that is only going to give you a disadvantage one week, but likely an advantage other weeks while your competitor is missing one of their best players...

4. there is such thing as a weak strategy- Last year the 0-RB strategy was the hot popular thing, this season nobody is talking about it... Why?? well simply because we had the big 3 RBs last season who were the best 3 players in fantasy... But was it the strategy that failed?? I say no... I am sure many owners won with the strategy... Owners like to blame a strategy for their failure when they go away from their norm... But the truth is it wasn't the strategy, it was their execution of it... Not to mention them not WINNING on the waiver wire... Strategies are only as good as you execute them... you also need to understand what a strategy is before you use it... I am sure many who used the 0-RB last season had a bench that was just as barren as their starters with RB... If you use a strategy that makes any starter weaker than every other teams replacement player, then you should protect yourself by having stronger depth than anyone else at that position(in most leagues this really only applies for RB and WR)...

 

[TREFF]

The rookie TE is very well documented with very few exceptions, but I'm with you on the other 3.. especially the sophomore jinx

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The rookie TE is very well documented with very few exceptions, but I'm with you on the other 3.. especially the sophomore jinx

but that is my point about the TE... it is well documented... But I am just not sold on it... I feel like it is one of those OLD wives tales that are built in excuses for teams to be patient with their TEs.... but again, I am looking at Njoku and seeing no reason why he would be treated like this... If he is thrown in right away, does the rookie TE theory make you afraid of him??

 

[TREFF]

but that is my point about the TE... it is well documented... But I am just not sold on it... I feel like it is one of those OLD wives tales that are built in excuses for teams to be patient with their TEs.... but again, I am looking at Njoku and seeing no reason why he would be treated like this... If he is thrown in right away, does the rookie TE theory make you afraid of him??

Njoku is the best bet to be an exception, yes.. but Howard, Ingram and the rest, maybe even Njoku too, will "prove the rule"

 

[SmokingMonkey]

but that is my point about the TE... it is well documented... But I am just not sold on it... I feel like it is one of those OLD wives tales that are built in excuses for teams to be patient with their TEs.... but again, I am looking at Njoku and seeing no reason why he would be treated like this... If he is thrown in right away, does the rookie TE theory make you afraid of him??

we already discussed and Joe already researched - something like less than 1% of all rookie TEs have had over 700yds.
and less than 2% had over 600

and he went back to 1986 just to find 5 relevant rookie TEs.

Myth or not, you won't find rookie TEs on any of my non-dynasty teams

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Njoku is the best bet to be an exception, yes.. but Howard, Ingram and the rest, maybe even Njoku too, will "prove the rule"

I think Howard would too if it wasn't for Brate... People are going to bring up the rookie TE theory on Howard, but when you have Brate, then of course you let Howard learn at least a little... plus, TB has so many other offensive guys that even if Howard was the day 1 starter, I don't think he would hit expectations... We forget that the reason why Gronk, Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Witten, and others were so great was because they were their teams number one or at worst number to offensive player... No rookie is that in the first place...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

we already discussed and Joe already researched - something like less than 1% of all rookie TEs have had over 700yds.
and less than 2% had over 600

and he went back to 1986 just to find 5 relevant rookie TEs.

Myth or not, you won't find rookie TEs on any of my non-dynasty teams

But how many TEs have over 700 yards per year?? I am not saying draft a rookie instead of an established vet, but I think the theory has a lot of flaws in it...

 

[TREFF]

But how many TEs have over 700 yards per year?? I am not saying draft a rookie instead of an established vet, but I think the theory has a lot of flaws in it...

Enough that any one who doesn't is just a face in the crowd, and if that's the most likely best case scenario, might as well take the safer vet

 

[SmokingMonkey]

But how many TEs have over 700 yards per year?? I am not saying draft a rookie instead of an established vet, but I think the theory has a lot of flaws in it...

a large part of fantasy comes down to opportunity
for a TE, they need to be on the field, especially in the redzone, and helps if they can block.
Being a liability in pass protection or even just taking time to learn both new blocking assignments and routes/check down zones for a new team takes time

I think there are more 'football' reasons that rookie TEs don't have big fantasy impacts than 'fantasy' myths about rookie TEs not producing

 

[MilkSpiller22]

a large part of fantasy comes down to opportunity
for a TE, they need to be on the field, especially in the redzone, and helps if they can block.
Being a liability in pass protection or even just taking time to learn both new blocking assignments and routes/check down zones for a new team takes time

I think there are more 'football' reasons that rookie TEs don't have big fantasy impacts than 'fantasy' myths about rookie TEs not producing

I get that... that is why I mentioned that the player has to be the starter right away...

 

[leftypower]

Well, thought out and presented Milk. .... Like anything else in fantasy, if a 'strategy' (which includes buying or dismissing myths) works for you, then it was good - if not, then it was bad. .... history is a great teacher, yet there will always be exceptions. ... opportunity and health will always be a key component.
Not giving anything away but I have one simple strategy - used it for yrs - most times it works fine, but other times, well, not so good.

 

[TKOSpikes]

1. Stay away from Rookie TEs- this seems like a myth to me, however true it seems... in recent history, how stable is the TE position in fantasy?? it has really been a top heavy, and very weak after the top 5 position... So is it really that the position is bad for rookies, or that the position is just so inconsistent in the first place?? the real questionis, if a team has there number one TE as a rookie, should you really question the rookie status...
- looking at the top 3 rookie TEs, I would say Njoku has everything going for him to be a top 10 TE in fantasy... He has the opportunity that not many Rookie TEs ever have... OJ howard, will likely start the season behind Brate, and Engram is in a high powered offense who is likely at best the #3 receiver...


2. Be scared of the sophomore jinx- the sophomore jinx is a real thing, BUT we identify it to be too much of a negative... The reason I think it is a real thing is simply, how many rookies had a good enough season for fantasy owners to even consider them to be candidates for the sophomore jinx?? not many... So clearly, the pool of potential sophomore jinx players are very small, and they are all high achievers there rookie season... and what do we know about any player who has found success?? teams will focus on them more, and adjust to the players skills... Basically that is all the sophomore jinx is, opposing teams adapting to the potential new weapon... the question is, can that player adjust back... the best way to predict who will have the sophomore jinx or not is the same way to predict any other players projections...

3. Don't draft players with the same Bye week- IMO, unless you are in the deepest of deep leagues or any weird format, worrying about bye weeks is not a good thing... My first question I like to ask people, how many players who you drafted will still be on your team by the first bye week?? If you cant figure out how to replace a bye week player on the fly, then something is wrong with you as a fantasy owner... So why worry about Bye weeks at all?? haven't seen a good argument for it... Even if you draft too many players from one bye week, that is only going to give you a disadvantage one week, but likely an advantage other weeks while your competitor is missing one of their best players...

4. there is such thing as a weak strategy- Last year the 0-RB strategy was the hot popular thing, this season nobody is talking about it... Why?? well simply because we had the big 3 RBs last season who were the best 3 players in fantasy... But was it the strategy that failed?? I say no... I am sure many owners won with the strategy... Owners like to blame a strategy for their failure when they go away from their norm... But the truth is it wasn't the strategy, it was their execution of it... Not to mention them not WINNING on the waiver wire... Strategies are only as good as you execute them... you also need to understand what a strategy is before you use it... I am sure many who used the 0-RB last season had a bench that was just as barren as their starters with RB... If you use a strategy that makes any starter weaker than every other teams replacement player, then you should protect yourself by having stronger depth than anyone else at that position(in most leagues this really only applies for RB and WR)...

So I guess Njoku will be your answer next season. And Gronk was probably good his first season, at the risk of not looking it up. It is most likely scenario over talent, so I somewhat agree.

I agree pretty strongly on the jinx, but just hate when I get burned by it.... fluke or not.

Unless it's our suicide rules, then yes, absolutely agree! Especially about waivers and roster change over time.

A weak strategy is not following your strategy? Ok. I'll buy it. Although, waivers and roster change comes into play here as well, but I see your point... I just fill my bench with RB regardless, so I'm coming from a different angle anyway.

 

[averagejoe]

Saw an article once ** shameless plug ** that debunked the notion that a good running game opens up the passing game and vice versa.

Rarely do you see a top 5 or even a top 10 offense in both run and pass.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Saw an article once ** shameless plug ** that debunked the notion that a good running game opens up the passing game and vice versa.

Rarely do you see a top 5 or even a top 10 offense in both run and pass.

I don't know if that is debunking anything... all that shows is common sense that there are not enough opportunities for your passing game if you run more than the rest of the league... and vice versa...

maybe if we judged by efficiency instead of total yards then it would be proven true that a good Passing offense helps create a good running game and vice versa...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

And Gronk was probably good his first season, at the risk of not looking it up. It is most likely scenario over talent, so I somewhat agree.

actually gronk and hernandez were both just OK - but if you combined them, that would have been an absolute dominant rookie TE season

Gronk 546yds 10TD
Hernandez 563yds 6TD

 

[TREFF]

Saw an article once ** shameless plug ** that debunked the notion that a good running game opens up the passing game and vice versa.

Rarely do you see a top 5 or even a top 10 offense in both run and pass.

Maybe the next article -
Does a good running game open up the opportunity for 1 stud WR, not necessarily the entire passing offense? i will operate on the assumption that, yes, it does (Dez, A. Brown, Watkins (when he plays), D. Baldwin, etc..)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Maybe the next article -
Does a good running game open up the opportunity for 1 stud WR, not necessarily the entire passing offense? i will operate on the assumption that, yes, it does (Dez, A. Brown, Watkins (when he plays), D. Baldwin, etc..)

assuming the team has one... cant take data from the Peterson lead Vikings.... and other individual seasons...

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Njoku has a good opportunity, but he's also raw AF and his QB is Brody Kessweiler

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Njoku has a good opportunity, but he's also raw AF and his QB is Brody Kessweiler

sure, but rookie QBs tend to love their TEs... TEs are known to be a bad QBs safety net... that's why tom brady is seen to be bad...

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

A rookie QB with a vet TE, maybe, but two rookies? I don't think they'll want to play Kizer, anyway, and it's probably better for Njoku if they don't. How many of that teeny % of productive rookie TE's also had a rookie QB throwing to them? Probably zero, I'd wager.