potential Fantasy football myths

[Shoeshine Boy]

#3 - Navigating bye weeks can be tricky, but honestly I'd be totally fine with having all my byes concentrated...having 1 or 2 weeks I know I'm going to get pounded might be preferable to having 4 or 5 weeks that are going to be nip and tuck.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

#1 myth of all time...starting a QB or WR to cancel out his corresponding teammate that's starting for an opponent. I crack up every time I see people put that out there...my opponent has Rodgers, should I start Jared Abbrederis? LOL. No, unless you think he's going to outscore the WR's on your bench. The object is to score the most points you possibly can, period.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

#1 myth of all time...starting a QB or WR to cancel out his corresponding teammate that's starting for an opponent. I crack up every time I see people put that out there...my opponent has Rodgers, should I start Jared Abbrederis? LOL. No, unless you think he's going to outscore the WR's on your bench. The object is to score the most points you possibly can, period.

I don't know... this could be a valid strategy though... not starting Jared Abbrederis... But after the 1:00 games you have a lead, and you want to protect it... why not start the player that will likely score with their best scorer left??

How about, it is Monday night game... it is Colts vs Packers... you have both QBs, you are winning, but it is a close match... He is starting TY Hilton... why would you start Aaron Rodgers?? You know if TY Hilton scores points so will Luck...

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

How about, it is Monday night game... it is Colts vs Packers... you have both QBs, you are winning, but it is a close match... He is starting TY Hilton... why would you start Aaron Rodgers??

You would start Aaron Rodgers for one reason and one reason only - that you think he will score more points than Andrew Luck! Hilton is going to score the exact same amount of points for your opponent regardless of who your QB is.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

You would start Aaron Rodgers for one reason and one reason only - that you think he will score more points than Andrew Luck! Hilton is going to score the exact same amount of points for your opponent regardless of who your QB is.

But TY Hilton would have to out score Luck for you to lose... that is very hard for a WR to outscore his own QB... but to outscore an opposing QB is much easier because that QB can have a bad game...

 

[averagejoe]

but that is my point about the TE... it is well documented... But I am just not sold on it... I feel like it is one of those OLD wives tales that are built in excuses for teams to be patient with their TEs.... but again, I am looking at Njoku and seeing no reason why he would be treated like this... If he is thrown in right away, does the rookie TE theory make you afraid of him??

This was on another thread.

Trivia Part 2
Maybe 700 yards from a rookie TE is asking too much?
So let's lower it a bit.
Since 1986, how many rookie TE have had at least 600 receiving yards or more?
My thinking is that based on 2016 numbers, 600 yards would at least put you just outside the top 14 TE.

Spoiler: Answer 2

It bumps up slightly to 5. Keep in mind that since 1986 there have been 444 rookie TE credited with at least 1 game. For just 2 rookie TE to become fantasy relevant out of 444 in the last 30 years is less than half of a percent (.45%). And even 5 rookie TE with at least 600 yards out of 444 represents barely over 1% (at 1.1%).

Bottom line: don't bother drafting a rookie TE in a redraft league.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

This was on another thread.

but how many of those 444 Rookie TEs started more than 8 games for their team?? overall my point is not that Rookie TEs don't struggle... But IF a team starts their rookie TE, is he expected to do worse because he is a rookie?? I just think opportunity is more important than status...

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

He would also have to outscore Rogers for you to lose. So the only relevant question is which QB is going to score you more points. It's a binary system...you either score more points than the other guy or you don't. Put whatever you think is your best lineup out there. Period.

 

[TKOSpikes]

actually gronk and hernandez were both just OK - but if you combined them, that would have been an absolute dominant rookie TE season

Gronk 546yds 10TD
Hernandez 563yds 6TD

I think an Njoku owner would be happy with 560 and 6. And excited with 540 and 10!

That said, right in front of Gronk, a Buffalo citizen, was the Bills 2nd round pick, Terrell Troup.... a big, fat DT during one of our switches to a 34 defense. I had to throw that in there, hearing Gronk-rookie makes me physically ill.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

He would also have to outscore Rogers for you to lose. So the only relevant question is which QB is going to score you more points. It's a binary system...you either score more points than the other guy or you don't. Put whatever you think is your best lineup out there. Period.

yes... But if TY Hilton scores fantasy points, then who is more likely to score fantasy points Luck or any other QB?? It is playing it safe... It is rare for any WR to be more than 60% of his teams receiving yards...

 

[leftypower]

I think an Njoku owner would be happy with 560 and 6. And excited with 540 and 10!

That said, right in front of Gronk, a Buffalo citizen, was the Bills 2nd round pick, Terrell Troup.... a big, fat DT during one of our switches to a 34 defense. I had to throw that in there, hearing Gronk-rookie makes me physically ill.

In all honesty, outside of a select few - those are decent numbers for any TE (old or new). .....

 

[averagejoe]

but how many of those 444 Rookie TEs started more than 8 games for their team?? overall my point is not that Rookie TEs don't struggle... But IF a team starts their rookie TE, is he expected to do worse because he is a rookie?? I just think opportunity is more important than status...

Tell me exactly what you want me to look up?
Games started, or games played?
What yardage are you looking at? 400 or more? 100 or more?
I'll look it up when I get home

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Tell me exactly what you want me to look up?
Games started, or games played?
What yardage are you looking at? 400 or more? 100 or more?
I'll look it up when I get home

don't really want you to look anything up... just seeing the chicken and egg here... Do rookie TEs not have the numbers because they are not good enough yet, or is it because there teams are not ready to use them??

again, my real question with Rookie TEs are IF they are there teams starting TE and if they are going to be used as such, can we really downgrade them SOLELY because of the rookie theory?? IMO, just like anything else with fantasy it is all about opportunity and role... if a rookie has the opportunity and role, I am not going to fear drafting him, just because he is a rookie(and that is not just about rookie TEs)...

 

[averagejoe]

You know I'm gonna look it up anyway.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

shouldn't have posted those Gronk/Hernandicide rookie #s - I think we will all agree that Gronk/Hern were not your typical rookie TEs, and let's also not forget that same Patriots team trotted out 800yd Welker and 700yd Branch as their top 2 WRs.

So 2 of the best rookie TE seasons of recent times happened on the same team, same season, and that team did NOT have a WR1, or anything resembling a dominating outside presence.
Seemed like a perfect storm, of which, I am not seeing in Cleveland or Tampa this season.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Do rookie TEs not have the numbers because they are not good enough yet, or is it because there teams are not ready to use them??

legit question - but this is a monkey-see, monkey-do league.
and if the Gronk/Hernandez season didn't get more teams to try using rookie TEs, I can't see Njuko/Howard being those type of league-changing players in year 1.

I wouldn't bank on teams all of the sudden testing out more TEs, unless they are Jimmy Graham-type TEs that only run routes and never block.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Here's another myth that seems to catch almost every fantasy owner off guard:

Just cause a team drafts a rookie RB, doesn't mean they'll kick their veteran to the curb, regardless of draft pedigree

Last year, I made 4 out of 6 money league finals, and at least 2 of my opponents, I think 3 of them, had both Bell and DeMarco - since Murray slid so far due to the drafting of Henry

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Here's another myth that seems to catch almost every fantasy owner off guard:

Just cause a team drafts a rookie RB, doesn't mean they'll kick their veteran to the curb, regardless of draft pedigree

Last year, I made 4 out of 6 money league finals, and at least 2 of my opponents, I think 3 of them, had both Bell and DeMarco - since Murray slid so far due to the drafting of Henry

this is a tough one for me because it is much more complicated than what you wrote... If a team has a veteran RB and drafts a rookie with a high-ish pick, what that tells me is that the veteran has a shorter leash... that is all... they are still the number ones... problem sometimes is that the veteran starts off hot, so there is never a reason for the rookie to get the balll...

Look at Hunt vs Ware this season... Ware will certainly be given the #1 job early on, but if he doesn't get off to a fast start, then he will likely lose his job...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

legit question - but this is a monkey-see, monkey-do league.
and if the Gronk/Hernandez season didn't get more teams to try using rookie TEs, I can't see Njuko/Howard being those type of league-changing players in year 1.

I wouldn't bank on teams all of the sudden testing out more TEs, unless they are Jimmy Graham-type TEs that only run routes and never block.

i wouldn't bank on teams with options putting there TE in that situation... But if they have to then that is a whole other story.... Njoku, i don't see how he can NOT be in that situation....

 

[averagejoe]

again, my real question with Rookie TEs are IF they are there teams starting TE and if they are going to be used as such, can we really downgrade them SOLELY because of the rookie theory??

Well, as I mentioned, I looked it up. Went back to 1986 (30 years) and used 400 yards and at least 8 games played (instead of games started). Here's the results:

It is worth noting that Hunter Henry (#20) finished 11th among TE last year with 478 yards and 8 TD. And that's with Antonio Gates as the primary (who happened to finish 10th).

Njoku, i don't see how he can NOT be in that situation....

Actually, despite my reputation for rookies, I agree with you and think Njoku is relevant this year. He's a safe option for whatever hot mess is starting at QB. And I'm not sold on Coleman or Britt either.

Njoku makes the list.