Padres now discussing deal for Hamels

[Bmurph]

If they sign Hamels they might escape the cellar.

Rockies have the cellar locked down

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

As he should, considering Hamels is still one of the best pitchers in baseball (and probably a top 5 NL pitcher in 2014), and just came off arguably his best season.

He's a great pitcher and coming off arguably his best season but he's still owed a king's ransom until 2019.

I certainly wouldn't give up the farm for him at this point in his career and clearly GMs aren't either.

 

[StanMarsh51]

He's a great pitcher and coming off arguably his best season but he's still owed a king's ransom until 2019.

I certainly wouldn't give up the farm for him at this point in his career and clearly GMs aren't either.

Then again, the contract (presuming the 2019 option kicks in) is only taking him to age 35, which is young enough that he could still have quality seasons for much of the remainder of the contract. I think that's part of the Phillies' reasoning in asking for so much, in that there's a solid chance that teams won't be stuck with him for an extended stretch where he's not productive.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

Then again, the contract (presuming the 2019 option kicks in) is only taking him to age 35, which is young enough that he could still have quality seasons for much of the remainder of the contract. I think that's part of the Phillies' reasoning in asking for so much, in that there's a solid chance that teams won't be stuck with him for an extended stretch where he's not productive.

I don't know if 35 is considered young for anything in professional sports.

It doesn't sound like Amaro has even gotten close to making a deal for Hamels. Not only do teams seem to be unwilling to part with stud prospects but they're asking Philly to eat a substantial portion of his salary. My guess is he goes absolutely no where until Philly hits rock bottom and Amaro is sent packing.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I don't know if 35 is considered young for anything in professional sports.

It doesn't sound like Amaro has even gotten close to making a deal for Hamels. Not only do teams seem to be unwilling to part with stud prospects but they're asking Philly to eat a substantial portion of his salary. My guess is he goes absolutely no where until Philly hits rock bottom and Amaro is sent packing.

35 isn't young, but it's not 38 either...plenty of pitchers have been productive up until 35, and it wouldn't surprise me if Hamels is too.

I could certainly see Hamels pitching similar to how Mussina did in his early to mid 30s, who had great seasons at age 31, 32, 34, with a pretty good season at age 33 and a mediocre season at age 35. Hamels doesn't really strike me as the type of guy who would have some rapid/extreme decline, so I could see him with a similar trend for the remainder of his contract.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

35 isn't young, but it's not 38 either...plenty of pitchers have been productive up until 35, and it wouldn't surprise me if Hamels is too.

I could certainly see Hamels pitching similar to how Mussina did in his early to mid 30s, who had great seasons at age 31, 32, 34, with a pretty good season at age 33 and a mediocre season at age 35. Hamels doesn't really strike me as the type of guy who would have some rapid/extreme decline, so I could see him with a similar trend for the remainder of his contract.

Sure but that's pretty much based on exactly nothing.

You no idea how well he's going to pitch between now and 2019.

Teams' reluctance to trade for Hamels isn't about it being impossible to pitch into mid 30s. It's about Amaro asking an arm and a leg on a guy who will be pitching in his mid 30s. This deal would be done if he was willing to eat some of Hamel's contract.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Sure but that's pretty much based on exactly nothing.

You no idea how well he's going to pitch between now and 2019.

Teams' reluctance to trade for Hamels isn't about it being impossible to pitch into mid 30s. It's about Amaro asking an arm and a leg on a guy who will be pitching in his mid 30s. This deal would be done if he was willing to eat some of Hamel's contract.

We have no idea how any pitcher would pitch in upcoming years, so would your solution be to get rid of all long-term deals and having everyone on a yearly basis? Clearly not a feasible solution if that is the idea.

 

[Retroram52]

Amaro is braindead. No matter what he does, he'll screw this up.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

We have no idea how any pitcher would pitch in upcoming years, so would your solution be to get rid of all long-term deals and having everyone on a yearly basis? Clearly not a feasible solution if that is the idea.

My solution would be not to trade top prospects for a mid 30's pitcher with as much guaranteed money as Cole Hamels. Giving up so much to take on such an expensive pitcher on the wrong side of 30 just doesn't make a whole lot of sense and major league GMs aren't exactly falling over one another to make this deal with Amaro.

 

[StanMarsh51]

My solution would be not to trade top prospects for a mid 30's pitcher with as much guaranteed money as Cole Hamels. Giving up so much to take on such an expensive pitcher on the wrong side of 30 just doesn't make a whole lot of sense and major league GMs aren't exactly falling over one another to make this deal with Amaro.

The guy just turned 31...let's not act like he's 36 here.

And regarding the age issue, when was the last time an established elite pitcher under 30 became a free agent? The last I can think of is Sabathia back in 2008....so it's a rarity, given that many pitchers top pitchers get locked up early and don't become free agents anyway. So it's not as if teams that haven't developed good pitchers have some options.

And then we get into the fact that Hamels' deal has 4-5 years remaining (depending if the option kicks in), where nowhere on the free agent market would a guy of his age/skill go for that few years (look at Lester and Scherzer by comparison, whose contracts would run 7 years if options kick in. That's a huge advantage, given that if he starts to stink when he's around age 35, the team won't be stuck with him for another few years.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

The guy just turned 31...let's not act like he's 36 here.

And regarding the age issue, when was the last time an established elite pitcher under 30 became a free agent? The last I can think of is Sabathia back in 2008....so it's a rarity, given that many pitchers top pitchers get locked up early and don't become free agents anyway. So it's not as if teams that haven't developed good pitchers have some options.

And then we get into the fact that Hamels' deal has 4-5 years remaining (depending if the option kicks in), where nowhere on the free agent market would a guy of his age/skill go for that few years (look at Lester and Scherzer by comparison, whose contracts would run 7 years if options kick in. That's a huge advantage, given that if he starts to stink when he's around age 35, the team won't be stuck with him for another few years.

It wouldn't matter if he just turned 21.

Amaro is just asking too much for Hamels. There's just no sense in a team taking on that contract and also sending their entire farm system to Philly. There will always be guys like Lester and Scherzer available in the off season and teams can sign them to similar money while keeping their best young talent.

Cole Hamels just isn't worth the price being asked and that's the reason he's still a Philly.

 

[StanMarsh51]

It wouldn't matter if he just turned 21.

Amaro is just asking too much for Hamels. There's just no sense in a team taking on that contract and also sending their entire farm system to Philly. There will always be guys like Lester and Scherzer available in the off season and teams can sign them to similar money while keeping their best young talent.

$23M/year for a guy in his early to mid 30's is one thing. $23M/year and prospects for that same guy is something else.

And they would have to sign guys like Lester and Scherzer for more years (like I said, nowhere on the market can you get a guy like Hamels, age and talent wise, for just 4-5 years). And if Hamels gets hurt in 2018, the 2019 option may not kick in which would make it a 4 year deal, which would be a lot more advantageous for a team than a 7 year deal, no?

Those extra few years of having $25M to spend could certainly make up for the loss of a few prospects, many of whom might not materialize to much anyway.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

And they would have to sign guys like Lester and Scherzer for more years (like I said, nowhere on the market can you get a guy like Hamels, age and talent wise, for just 4-5 years). And if Hamels gets hurt in 2018, the 2019 option may not kick in which would make it a 4 year deal, which would be a lot more advantageous for a team than a 7 year deal, no?

Those extra few years of having $25M to spend could certainly make up for the loss of a few prospects, many of whom might not materialize to much anyway.

I consider long term, huge deals for older players to be about the stupidest thing major league clubs do these days as it rarely works out for the team in the end, so I don't know if that's necessarily a good point anyway, but it still depends entirely on the prospects being sought.

It doesn't matter if you think Hamels is worth the asking point because it seems pretty clear GM's do not.