Jim Bowden's 10 Bold Predictions for 2015 - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

My 10 bold predictions for 2015 - The GM's Office - ESPN

With the first pitch of the 2015 season coming Sunday night as the Chicago Cubstake on the St. Louis Cardinals on ESPN2, it's time for my annual "bold predictions" for the upcoming season. Let's take a look at 10 things I believe will or will not happen.

1. Cole Hamels will be traded to the New York Yankees and not theBoston Red Sox

The Phillies might just wait until late July before dealing their most valuable asset and most important player in their rebuilding process, Hamels. The longer they wait, the higher the trade value should become as long as Hamels stays healthy and pitches well. The Red Sox have the best farm system of the interested teams but to date have balked at including either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in a package to land him. That position is unlikely to change, and if the Yankees are still in the pennant race come July, and Masahiro Tanaka andMichael Pineda remain healthy, then I predict Yanks general manager Brian Cashman will do what he doesn't want to do and trade two of his top prospects to land Hamels, which could propel the Bronx Bombers to an October playoff game.

2. Johnny Cueto will be traded to the Red Sox a week after Hamels is dealt to Yankees

I predict the Red Sox will then respond like we're used to in the Yankees-Red Sox front-office rivalry and put a strong prospect package together to land Cueto from the Reds (as long as he doesn't sign an extension in the meantime). The package will not include Betts or Swihart but instead be centered on pitchersHenry Owens and Matt Barnes. The deal won't happen until after the Reds have hosted the 2015 All Star Game at Great American Ball Park.

3. James Shields will win more games than Max Scherzer

Scherzer signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Washington Nationalsthis offseason, making Washington the team to beat in the National League. Shields wasn't as fortunate on the open market, having to settle for $135 million less when he agreed to a four-year, $75 million deal with the San Diego Padres. I predict that Shields will win more games than Scherzer even if it's by only a game or two.

4. A Tommy John rehab player will impact the pennant race at mid-summer

The medical field has done such a wonderful job with Tommy John surgeries over the years, and the best part has come from the rehabilitation teams that make sure players don't try to come back to soon.

This year, I believe there will be a rehab player who makes a comeback sometime during the summer that changes a pennant race and puts a team in the postseason. Although my obvious favorite for this is the Miami Marlins' Jose Fernandez, I do have some dark horses, such as Kris Medlen of the Royals,Brandon Beachy of the Dodgers and maybe even Josh Johnson of the Padres.

5. Adrian Beltre will be traded at the July trade deadline.

The Rangers made a shrewd move in February when they picked up the club option on Beltre through the 2016 season. The move put Beltre at ease, as he now doesn't have to worry about an injury or decline. However, from the Rangers' perspective, it increased his trade value significantly come the July trade deadline. I don't expect Texas to be in contention at that point, but I do expect their top third-base prospect Joey Gallo to be major league-ready. Therefore, it only makes sense that Beltre is dealt to a contending team at that time for a prospect package. Contenders that could have interest at that time include the Nationals (with Rendon moving back to second base), Giants, Padres, White Sox and Indians.

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

6. Prince Fielder and Matt Harvey will be comeback players of the year

I predict Harvey will clearly place himself as one of the top three starting pitchers in the NL. The right-hander will be a serious Cy Young candidate but fall short because the Mets will limit his innings pitched to the 160-180 range. However, the Mets will prepare properly for him to be ready for October playoff games if they make it. Fielder, who was limited to 42 games last year that resulted in just three home runs, will not only have a bounce-back year but will win the American League Comeback Player of the Year Award. I predict .280/.375/.524 with 31 home runs and 111 RBIs.

7. The Dodgers will miss the postseason

The Dodgers have the best team on paper in the NL West, but that's not what predictions are all about. Zack Greinke had his annual injection in his right elbow, and although that's routine for him, it's still a red flag when it happens two years in a row. Hyun-Jin Ryu has dealt with both back and shoulder soreness. Brett Anderson hasn't pitched 45 innings in a single season since 2011, and Brandon McCarthy has won double-digit games just once in his entire career. The Dodgers' next couple of starters could end up being Juan Nicasio orFreddy Garcia, and their bullpen starts the year with questions about its depth and Kenley Jansen on the disabled list.

Meanwhile, the Padres' rotation -- Shields, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy -- is healthy and pitching well. Their bullpen is strong with depth. San Diego has a much improved offense that will play even with the marine layered air at Petco Park. Sure, they have questions defensively (center field and catcher) and with their leadoff spot. However, because their rotation and bullpen is so strong, and the Dodgers could easily break down, I'm predicting that the best team on paper in this division (Dodgers) not only doesn't win the division but misses the playoffs altogether.

8. Jorge Soler will win NL Rookie of the Year over Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant

Bryant was the best offensive player during spring training in either Arizona or Florida. He should have broken camp with the Cubs' 25-man squad but was sent down so the team could secure an extra year of control and delay his free agency. Regardless, he soon will be up in the major leagues and instantly be the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year. I expect 25-30 home runs from him.

Pederson will be the Dodgers' Opening Day center fielder, and like Bryant, I expect a banner year from him that should include 15-20 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases. However, All three are great candidates, but my bold prediction to win the award is Soler. I think he will hit for a higher average than either Bryant or Pederson, with more RBIs, solid defense in right field, and will end up with a higher WAR.

9. Mookie Betts has a better season for the Red Sox than both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez

The Red Sox spent a combined $183 million on free-agent hitters Sandoval and Ramirez with hopes of improving their offense and lengthening their lineup. And yet I feel Betts, who will be paid a mere $515,000 this year, will have a better overall season offensively and defensively for the BoSox. I also think he will develop into one of the league's best leadoff hitters in 2015.

10. The Mariners, Padres and Blue Jays will all win their respective divisions

Yes, you read that right. The last time the Mariners won their division was 2001. For the Padres it was 2006, and for the Blue Jays it was 1993. The last time all three won their division in the same year? Never. The Mariners will do it due to the emergence of young starters James Paxton and Taijuan Walker along with the bat of Nelson Cruz that is nestled in between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.

The Padres will win due to their power arms and power bats with help from injuries to the Dodgers and Giants. And in Toronto, the additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, and strong rookie seasons from Aaron Sanchez,Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey and Devon Travis will propel the Blue Jays to the AL East crown. Both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will join Donaldson in a close race for MVP of the NL and the Blue Jays.

 

[tducey]

Interesting thoughts, as to the Blue Jays, I think them and the Red Sox go back and forth in the AL East all yr. but Boston ends up winning the division.