Free Agency Review - GRADES

[Crimsoncrew]

Couple things here...

First, I don't care about Smith's accuracy issues, your claim that "The addition of downfield threats certainly plays to Kaepernick's strengths more than Alex's." is 100% false.

Second, you seem to be an expert on Smith's "accuracy issues", now claiming that ""accuracy issues" doesn't quite capture how much Smith struggled throwing the deep ball along the sidelines."

So, what completion percent, (to simplify matters), would you say qualify's a QB as having "accuracy issues" on sideline routes and what are you saying, or perhaps guessing, Alex's completion percent was? And finally, what distances are you talking about?

I ask only because I seem to remember about as many completions as incompletions, but I will defer to your expertise on this.

It is a comparison of their relative strengths. As such, Alex's glaring weakness is absolutely relevant. If nothing else, Kaepernick has indisputably greater arm strength.

As for your questions, why would I provide stats? Every time I do, you dismiss them as useless. I watched about 97% of Smith's passes this season. When he threw 20+ yards deep along the sidelines, he tended to struggle greatly with his accuracy. Often greatly.

 

[Bemular]

It is a comparison of their relative strengths. As such, Alex's glaring weakness is absolutely relevant. If nothing else, Kaepernick has indisputably greater arm strength.

As for your questions, why would I provide stats? Every time I do, you dismiss them as useless. I watched about 97% of Smith's passes this season. When he threw 20+ yards deep along the sidelines, he tended to struggle greatly with his accuracy. Often greatly.

I have a few thoughts on your post.

First, your use of the term "relative strength" constitutes a double entendre; however, I will addresss the term according only to the context of this discussion.

Second, Colin has not once thrown a nine-down-the-line in the NFL, and apparently struggled with deep passes, in general, in college. Therefore, this "relevance" that you claim exists, "absolutely" - does not exist at all.

Third, and pertinent to the context of this discussion, the fact Colin has a stronger arm is also irrelevant as an argument for more accuracy. If you want to argue that Colin would be capable of over-throwing farther the intended receiver, then yes, his arm strength would be relevant to that one-man debate. Feel free to knock yourself out.

Fourth and finally. I asked for your best guess of a specific stat - completion percent. I did not ask you to create, interpret or analyze anything statistical, I asked you to attribute a simple statistic - you should be capable of this.

And while completion percent is not the tell-all it would serve as a sound quantification of your arguments that Alex, when throwing the sideline route over 20 yards:

Has been glaring weak & often struggled greatly with his accuracy.

As a starting point, Smith's accuracy for all passes thrown 21+ yards, according to ESPN is 36.1%. As reference points, Bree's hit 50.8% of those passes while Gabbert hit 21.4%.

So, by your own emphasis and prior declarations that Smith was fairly accurate on deep seams & posts, I'm guessing Alex would come in around 15% for his sideline passes. Would you agree?

 

[threelittleturds]

It is a comparison of their relative strengths. As such, Alex's glaring weakness is absolutely relevant. If nothing else, Kaepernick has indisputably greater arm strength.

As for your questions, why would I provide stats? Every time I do, you dismiss them as useless. I watched about 97% of Smith's passes this season. When he threw 20+ yards deep along the sidelines, he tended to struggle greatly with his accuracy. Often greatly.

Is it just me, or is Alex pretty much only accurate on the sideline passes when he is throwing it to Vernon? It seems like he hits those throws perfectly like in both the Saints and Giants games that led to TDs and big gains... but then with everyone else it is nearly impossible for the WR to make the catch.

Since he is the QB, I want to be the optimist and hope that better WRs could cover up that weakness, but the realist in me recognizes that history has proven he just can't make those throws with any consistency to anyone not named Vernon Davis.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Is it just me, or is Alex pretty much only accurate on the sideline passes when he is throwing it to Vernon? It seems like he hits those throws perfectly like in both the Saints and Giants games that led to TDs and big gains... but then with everyone else it is nearly impossible for the WR to make the catch.

Since he is the QB, I want to be the optimist and hope that better WRs could cover up that weakness, but the realist in me recognizes that history has proven he just can't make those throws with any consistency to anyone not named Vernon Davis.

chemistry? vernon runs the proper routes....smith has confidence in vernon...

 

[MHSL82]

Is it just me, or is Alex pretty much only accurate on the sideline passes when he is throwing it to Vernon? It seems like he hits those throws perfectly like in both the Saints and Giants games that led to TDs and big gains... but then with everyone else it is nearly impossible for the WR to make the catch.

Since he is the QB, I want to be the optimist and hope that better WRs could cover up that weakness, but the realist in me recognizes that history has proven he just can't make those throws with any consistency to anyone not named Vernon Davis.

He had one great one to Crabtree in what I think was the Philidelphia game, but it wasn't that deep. I'll try to find it when I get back.

 

[deep9er]

Wrong again. My thing is disagreeing with false claims - and since you are the queen of false claims it just seems like it is all about you, but it isn't all about you, just your false claims, trust me.

adding deep threats play to Kap's strength is a false claim, so all Crimson has to do is justify what these strengths in Kap are...right? if he can do that, then its not false.

but saying Alex can't throw deep passes isn't justifying Kap's strength with deep passes.....did i get that right?

 

[MHSL82]

adding deep threats play to Kap's strength is a false claim, so all Crimson has to do is justify what these strengths in Kap are...right? if he can do that, then its not false.

but saying Alex can't throw deep passes isn't justifying Kap's strength with deep passes.....did i get that right?

You can't show one person's strengths by showing that another's weak at it. You can't compare one with the other with only having seen one. We can't say Kaep will or will not be good at it until he does it. The coaches may be able to say so, but we're at their mercy, thankfully.

The only relevance any of this has is that the FO selected deep field threats for the team and therefore we assume Kaep has those strengths - because we assume the FO wants Kaep as the starter. If we didn't assume they wanted Kaep, we'd assume these guys were to help Alex with offense or were looking for a QB in the draft.

My view: I assume they want whoever is best and looked for FA's to help with their offense. If Alex can cut it, he'll keep the job. If he can't, he'll be cut. There's no reason to assume the FO will force Kaep in because of his second round status if Alex succeeds. But there's no reason to be down on Kaep when we haven't seen him at NFL speed.

 

[Flyingiguana]

i would grade us as a B. huge hole at RG and still no quality wr who can move the chains. moss and jacobs are bigger names but we don't know how much of an impact either will have.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I have a few thoughts on your post.

First, your use of the term "relative strength" constitutes a double entendre; however, I will addresss the term according only to the context of this discussion.

Second, Colin has not once thrown a nine-down-the-line in the NFL, and apparently struggled with deep passes, in general, in college. Therefore, this "relevance" that you claim exists, "absolutely" - does not exist at all.

Third, and pertinent to the context of this discussion, the fact Colin has a stronger arm is also irrelevant as an argument for more accuracy. If you want to argue that Colin would be capable of over-throwing farther the intended receiver, then yes, his arm strength would be relevant to that one-man debate. Feel free to knock yourself out.

Fourth and finally. I asked for your best guess of a specific stat - completion percent. I did not ask you to create, interpret or analyze anything statistical, I asked you to attribute a simple statistic - you should be capable of this.

And while completion percent is not the tell-all it would serve as a sound quantification of your arguments that Alex, when throwing the sideline route over 20 yards:

Has been glaring weak & often struggled greatly with his accuracy.

As a starting point, Smith's accuracy for all passes thrown 21+ yards, according to ESPN is 36.1%. As reference points, Bree's hit 50.8% of those passes while Gabbert hit 21.4%.

So, by your own emphasis and prior declarations that Smith was fairly accurate on deep seams & posts, I'm guessing Alex would come in around 15% for his sideline passes. Would you agree?

Two things:

First, you ask for stats, but when I provide stats you dismiss them. It's a little game you play. When someone doesn't provide stats, you ask for them. When they are provided, you say they don't show anything. All the while, you never provide any evidence yourself. I'm not playing the game any more.

Second, completion percentage only tells part of the story, especially on deep sideline passes. Smith rarely throws those passes unless the receiver has a large cushion. Those balls are easier to complete because they don't require the same sort of precision as they would if the defender is in tight coverage. Compare that with, for instance, the TD to Colston that Brees threw against the Niners. Culliver was in great position, but Brees threw a perfect ball. Because Smith rarely throws those passes unless he has an open receiver, he has a wider margin of error and a less accurate ball can still result in a completion. Smith completed a deep sideline pass to Crabtree late against the Seahawks, for instance, but it wasn't an accurate ball.

Smith objectively struggles throwing deep along the sideline. If you disagree, that's fine. Though I would question your judgment in that case.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

He had one great one to Crabtree in what I think was the Philidelphia game, but it wasn't that deep. I'll try to find it when I get back.

If you're talking about the one where he split the defenders, that was a fairly short pass. I wouldn't consider that one a deep sideline pass, though it was a nice ball by Smith and a nice route by Crabtree.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Is it just me, or is Alex pretty much only accurate on the sideline passes when he is throwing it to Vernon? It seems like he hits those throws perfectly like in both the Saints and Giants games that led to TDs and big gains... but then with everyone else it is nearly impossible for the WR to make the catch.

Since he is the QB, I want to be the optimist and hope that better WRs could cover up that weakness, but the realist in me recognizes that history has proven he just can't make those throws with any consistency to anyone not named Vernon Davis.

I'm not saying Smith can't make these throws. But all too often they are off. And a decent portion of the time it seems at least in part a product of Smith's arm strength. He's our QB, and I have always supported him. More than most. But all the speed on the edges in the world won't matter if Smith can't hit these passes with some regularity.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

You can't show one person's strengths by showing that another's weak at it. You can't compare one with the other with only having seen one. We can't say Kaep will or will not be good at it until he does it. The coaches may be able to say so, but we're at their mercy, thankfully.

The only relevance any of this has is that the FO selected deep field threats for the team and therefore we assume Kaep has those strengths - because we assume the FO wants Kaep as the starter. If we didn't assume they wanted Kaep, we'd assume these guys were to help Alex with offense or were looking for a QB in the draft.

My view: I assume they want whoever is best and looked for FA's to help with their offense. If Alex can cut it, he'll keep the job. If he can't, he'll be cut. There's no reason to assume the FO will force Kaep in because of his second round status if Alex succeeds. But there's no reason to be down on Kaep when we haven't seen him at NFL speed.

I never watched Kaepernick play in college, and he's only thrown five NFL passes. I don't know how he looked on a game-to-game basis in college throwing the deep ball. I know he has a very strong arm, and I have seen plenty of highlights of him throwing accurate strikes deep. I thus referred to his ability to throw the deep ball as a strength. It's possible that was an overstatement. Honestly, I don't know. What I meant to convey is that, when I see the team clearly trying to add outside speed, it seems that they are doing it with at least an eye to a future with a QB who can really threaten deep on a consistent basis. IMO, that's not Smith.

Bemular has posted some pre-draft reviews that question Kaepernick's deep accuracy. Allow me to respond in kind:

Very accurate downfield passer.

His arm is a cannon that allows him to make all of the throws necessary to make it in the NFL. Despite his strong arm, he does a good job of knowing when to use finesse with his passes to drop them in between the linebackers and the safeties. When he’s on the run, he uses his arm strength to squeeze the ball into tight spaces in the defense. His passes to the sideline are always on a rope and right on target.

He really does have great zip on his throws and he can make absolutely every throw thanks to his arm strength.

Reads defenses well and has nice touch.

The reality is that none of these reviews mean much of anything. Read enough of them and you can cobble together any picture you want of a prospect. Smith's arm strength is below average for an NFL starter. Kaepernick's is very good. That's about the extent of what I was trying to say.

 

[yehyeh]

I believe the play that Morgan broke his leg was a flag pattern deep down the field thrown by Kap, a pattern that Alex has problems with. I have a hard time remembering cause I was drunk in my upper deck seats, but that is my recollection. Just trying to point out that Kap has thrown that pass before because it was claimed he hasn't.

 

[deep9er]

I never watched Kaepernick play in college, and he's only thrown five NFL passes. I don't know how he looked on a game-to-game basis in college throwing the deep ball. I know he has a very strong arm, and I have seen plenty of highlights of him throwing accurate strikes deep. I thus referred to his ability to throw the deep ball as a strength. It's possible that was an overstatement. Honestly, I don't know. What I meant to convey is that, when I see the team clearly trying to add outside speed, it seems that they are doing it with at least an eye to a future with a QB who can really threaten deep on a consistent basis. IMO, that's not Smith.


The reality is that none of these reviews mean much of anything. Read enough of them and you can cobble together any picture you want of a prospect. Smith's arm strength is below average for an NFL starter. Kaepernick's is very good. That's about the extent of what I was trying to say.

to me it was an overstatement, but from you thats not surprising. IMO you do it more than you realize. you felt Kap has a stronger arm and then described as "Kap's strengthS". then proceeded to use Alex's negative to "prove" Kap's strength.

if you had used this post from the get go, don't think Bemular could've said its a "false claim"?

anyways, for the part following the bold.......i agree, think we ALL agree?
the team has to add better WR's irregardless of the QB.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

to me it was an overstatement, but from you thats not surprising. IMO you do it more than you realize. you felt Kap has a stronger arm and then described as "Kap's strengthS". then proceeded to use Alex's negative to "prove" Kap's strength.

if you had used this post from the get go, don't think Bemular could've said its a "false claim"?

anyways, for the part following the bold.......i agree, think we ALL agree?
the team has to add better WR's irregardless of the QB.

The nature of a forum of this type of forum is that overstatement occurs. We all do it. I try to read through my posts before I post them, but I don't always scrutinize them, and as such I occasionally overstate my position. Often I realize that after doing it, but often it is after I can edit my posts. And I have now acquired a little friend who likes to follow me around and nitpick the handful of overstatements I make in hundreds of posts.

Kaepernick has a very strong arm. One of the strongest in the NFL right now. Because of that, deep threats play to his strengths more than Smith's. As said, I still stand by that statement.

 

[MHSL82]

If you're talking about the one where he split the defenders, that was a fairly short pass. I wouldn't consider that one a deep sideline pass, though it was a nice ball by Smith and a nice route by Crabtree.

My fault, my memory was a bit hazy on the length. I knew it wasn't looong, but wasn't sure how short.

 

[MHSL82]

I never watched Kaepernick play in college, and he's only thrown five NFL passes. I don't know how he looked on a game-to-game basis in college throwing the deep ball. I know he has a very strong arm, and I have seen plenty of highlights of him throwing accurate strikes deep. I thus referred to his ability to throw the deep ball as a strength. It's possible that was an overstatement. Honestly, I don't know. What I meant to convey is that, when I see the team clearly trying to add outside speed, it seems that they are doing it with at least an eye to a future with a QB who can really threaten deep on a consistent basis. IMO, that's not Smith.

...

The reality is that none of these reviews mean much of anything. Read enough of them and you can cobble together any picture you want of a prospect. Smith's arm strength is below average for an NFL starter. Kaepernick's is very good. That's about the extent of what I was trying to say.

I think the problem some people have with describing downfield passes as a strength and then talking about sideline passes, which are one of the hardest passes to do, implies that it's a strength, too (though I know that was NOT your intent). It makes it sound like Kaep has already gone through the hurdle of learning how to do that in the NFL and doing it. It makes all the easier passes complete and therefore there's no shade of degrees to compare Smith and Kaep. I don't think anyone would have a problem if it were posed as a possibility that it's his strength. I'd even go as far as to say we need to play him to see if he can.

The truth is there are very few QBs that can do that consistently and even fewer would do that with an emphasis not to turn the ball over. I don't know that Smith could do it, I'd lean towards that it's unlikely, consistently. But I do think it's mental more than physical and mental can do some harm. In other words, I trust Smith more when he has to throw that throw, because then the emphasis is on taking risk for reward and then we see it. You did say that he *could* make the pass. I think he doesn't do it because he is too tentative, not too unskilled. That IS a problem, if he can't overcome that with Moss and Mannigham, he's a liability, IMO. I am not blaming Harbaugh, because Harbaugh will call fewer of those passes if Smith hasn't demonstrated a willingness to trust his arm. Why waste a down? It's also probable that Smith hasn't completed many passes in practice of those plays consistently.

But I don't think Alex's weaknesses are relevant to Kaep's strengths, only to the FO's motivations - which this conversation has strayed away from. I truly believe that these moves were an eye to this season - as Moss is only signed for one year and Manningham is only signed for two -it's conceivable that Smith plays well enough to keep the job in 2013, but not 2014(?). Then, if Kaep outplays Smith in the offseason/preseason, then we can move on without saying, "well, now we need more receivers." I think this is a football move and the coaches will play whoever is better overall. They have an idea but don't know what Alex/Colin will do.

Win/win, sink or swim, that's how I view this season. I have enough trust in Kaep to not worry, but I believe Smith will improve again this year - simply because I see no legitimate excuses this year. If I hear someone defend him by talking about the Manning ordeal, I swear I'm going to throw something at my computer. That, should make him better (let loose, play as if Kaep is on his neck, plus second season in same offense with great coaches, and more confidence (in himself, not necessarily the org.), despite the Manning pursuit.).

 

[SRPnVA]

adding deep threats play to Kap's strength is a false claim, so all Crimson has to do is justify what these strengths in Kap are...right? if he can do that, then its not false.

but saying Alex can't throw deep passes isn't justifying Kap's strength with deep passes.....did i get that right?

Agreed. Moss is only signed for one year. Only way CK gets any PT is if Alex gets KO'd.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The nature of a forum of this type of forum is that overstatement occurs. We all do it. I try to read through my posts before I post them, but I don't always scrutinize them, and as such I occasionally overstate my position. Often I realize that after doing it, but often it is after I can edit my posts. And I have now acquired a little friend who likes to follow me around and nitpick the handful of overstatements I make in hundreds of posts.

Kaepernick has a very strong arm. One of the strongest in the NFL right now. Because of that, deep threats play to his strengths more than Smith's. As said, I still stand by that statement.

Somewhat fittingly, perusing this post again, I see an example of the drawbacks of not being able to edit:

The nature of a forum of this type of forum is that overstatement occurs.

Obviously I didn't intend to say "forum" twice, but it's not my doctoral thesis so I don't proofread in exhaustive detail.

 

[MHSL82]

Agreed. Moss is only signed for one year. Only way CK gets any PT is if Alex gets KO'd.

At a minimum, we must remove Moss as a reason for the belief that these moves were for Kaep - unless you believe we'd pay effectively 9 million for Smith to backuo Kaep. Even with a great year, Moss can be seen as a 1 year acquisition?

That leaves Manningham and the draft. Some here have called Manningham a #3. He is more of a downfield threat than Morgan, but, I think, he was behind Cruz and Nicks as far as big gains (though they broke a lot of tackles on short passes). But I'd give him the 2-3 spot here.

I think the majority see Kaep as the future and there's support for believing that the FO is part of that majority. I just don't think that this is *the sign* that they want him. I'd look elsewhere and probably find it (i.e, where we drafted him, Alex's contract (though IMO that's more question on Alex than confidence in Kaep), this year's draft (maybe), etc.).