WTF Pace

[blh7068]

I like this debate, We also have to consider this: Turnovers are going to happen more often when teams are down big- simply because taking more chances to get back into a game. The score does dictate some plays. Tight game might mean checkdown- limit mistakes. Down big will mean forced throws.
The Lions had a defense that kept Stafford in every game. Even when he had poor games the defense kept them closer.

Consider Cutlers high completion pct / low ypa last year. Excessive shots down field while continuously missing simply cant exist in that relationship. More often than not- hes taking what is available underneath because his downfield targets arent stretching the field/getting over the top of the defense, despite that 65% of his pass attempts were made when trailing.

 

[blh7068]

I agree with all of this. I've just seen some QB lists where Stafford is at #9 and Cutler is at #20 or so. When I looked up Stafford's stats, I honestly was surprised they weren't better.

I wasn't making a case for Cutler over Stafford, at all. Just merely saying I don't think you can look at their body of work and suggest their is much separation between them.

While Cutler had more turnovers last year, he was more productive than Stafford. Overall, both offenses were pretty equal. Lions won 11 games. Bears won 5. One defense was tied for 2nd in PA, the other was 31st.

 

[blh7068]

I know that score more does not work, but when you put all your eggs in the offensive basket, there were no upgrades to fix the rest of your problems, their solution had them playing from behind every week.

So not only do you agree that score more doesnt work, the crux of your argument wrt to personnel i.e. "all the eggs in the offensive basket" is NOT a Cutler issue in any way, shape or form. Whether the defensive fallout claimed by you has merit or not doesnt matter. The bottom line is that was dictated by how management chose to spend the money.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

"The most talented QB in Bears history, who hasn't met the unreachable expectations of Bears fans, provides more upside then replacement/journeymen/rookie QB's and a player the team can/have won with."

Now your turn.

Jay Cutler, the latest Bears QB disappointment.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Of course its sensible. What youre ignoring is the causality. That stat is upheld because bad defenses cant absorb a turnover by the offense- regardless of where they occur. Not every turnover is a worst case scenario. Points off turnovers is strictly derived from what happens on the ensuing drive after a turnover. The ensuing drive that nets a score is 99 yards or 1 yard is treated the same- its points off a turnover.


Good defenses can absorb the turnovers that arent among those situations most compromising to the defense. Bad defenses cant. That is the causality of 'winning the TO battle' stat.

This is true, but your example will wash out either way with opposite examples in the other extreme with enough samples. Without going through a turnover-by-turnover analysis, which I'm not doing but someone else is free to, we have to assume the turnover outcomes are more or less normally distributed on either side of the "idealness" spectrum. Without going through the exact specifics of each turnover, it is safe to assume that all other things being equal that more turnovers means more point changes which leads to more wins.

 

[anotheridiot]

So not only do you agree that score more doesnt work, the crux of your argument wrt to personnel i.e. "all the eggs in the offensive basket" is NOT a Cutler issue in any way, shape or form. Whether the defensive fallout claimed by you has merit or not doesnt matter. The bottom line is that was dictated by how management chose to spend the money.

You cannot say its not a cutler issue in any way since he was the one they were coddling to when they went out to surround him with talent. The revolving door of offensive coordinators trying to figure out how to get more out of Jay were all brought in to replace coaches that did not get enough from him.

All a real bear fan wants is a defense that will knock the shit out a ball carrier and and then help him back up, a punt and kick returner that can score at any time, and a quarterback that does not interfere with the defense being the reason games are won. Thats why its so hard to call Cutler apologists real bear fans.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

[QUOTE="anotheridiot, post: 6621574, member: 5262"Thats why its so hard to call Cutler apologists real bear fans.[/QUOTE]

whoa dude, hang on a minute, now it's my turn to be the unlikely defender of the Cutler side. Just because they are still hitched to Jay doesn't mean they don't love the team. It's the modern NFL, we could use a good quarterback.

 

[blh7068]

This is true, but your example will wash out either way with opposite examples in the other extreme with enough samples. Without going through a turnover-by-turnover analysis, which I'm not doing but someone else is free to, we have to assume the turnover outcomes are more or less normally distributed on either side of the "idealness" spectrum. Without going through the exact specifics of each turnover, it is safe to assume that all other things being equal that more turnovers means more point changes which leads to more wins.

I only posted the extremes to illustrate that points off turnovers are indifferent to where the ensuing drive starts. I also didn't post what I did with any attempt of creating some sort of turnover distribution curve. It was simply to show that not every turnover is a worst case scenario. Good defenses have a higher likelihood of absorbing mistakes as they become less compromising. In the case of the Bears (and other terrible defenses) they stand little chance of absorbing mistakes that occur anywhere on the field, because the body of work shows they can't stop anyone, anyways. The Bears had ~ 168 defensive drives. Look at the numbers when normalized to per drive. Needless to say, they're beyond terrible. When you look at from that perspective knowing how bad they've been defensively, turnovers can't significantly impact a 168 defensive drive sample size.

 

[leomaz]

I disagree with you BLH and think Cali is spot on. Who wins the turnover battle wins 99% of the time. It's huge and I think you underestimate how huge. What you said is sensible, but the stats say otherwise.

Fucking wrong.


Statistics show that in the NFL, teams with positive turnover ratios have a significantly higher probability of winning. Over the past five full seasons, clubs with more takeaways than giveaways have a combined 810-220-2 (.786) record.

 

[blh7068]

You cannot say its not a cutler issue in any way since he was the one they were coddling to when they went out to surround him with talent. The revolving door of offensive coordinators trying to figure out how to get more out of Jay were all brought in to replace coaches that did not get enough from him.

All a real bear fan wants is a defense that will knock the shit out a ball carrier and and then help him back up, a punt and kick returner that can score at any time, and a quarterback that does not interfere with the defense being the reason games are won. Thats why its so hard to call Cutler apologists real bear fans.

Do you ever pay attention to what you post? You can't be serious with some of this stuff.

Very little effort was made to getting him surrounded by better talent until 2012, when Marshall and AJ came on board. Cutler came here in 2009 from Denver- where he went from throwing to Marshall and Royal to the likes of Hester and Knox. Then on to Martz where he has basically two subpar route runners as featured targets and a line that couldn't protect him. A line no less that featured 7 blockers as TEs generally weren't viewed as pass catching options in his offense. Now you're telling me that he's been coddled??? FTR, I'm not an apologist by any stretch. However, as an NFL fan who is a die hard Bears Fan, I remember a lot. It's called separating what is from what isn't, and is something you completely lack.

Cutler interferes with the defense? Are you claiming he's the primary reason they've averaged giving up ~ 4 TDs per game over the last 2 seasons? This might be your finest piece of nonsense to date.

 

[JoeyTourettes]

Here's a question: Does any of the Jay Cutler Bears teams since 2009 win a Superbowl IF you JUST replaced Jay with: Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees..."elite" qb?
AND they had the same injuries that Jay did each year. Same # of sacks (*I know some will just blame those on Jay too...) Same coaches, same defenses, same wr's, same olines?

2009: 7-9 w/Jay: No Urlacher, Tuner OC, 21st ranked D. Hester #1 WR.
2010: 10-5 w/Jay: Martz OC, 52 sacks given up, Hester #1, 4th ranked D. Knee injury in NFCCG (Todd Collins started and won one game- Concussion to Jay after 9 sack game- Collins threw 5 picks in 1.5 games)
2011: 7-3 w/Jay: Forte out 4 games: Martz OC: 14th ranked D. 49 total sacks given up. Roy Williams/Johnny Knox tied leading WR w/37 catches (Jay had broken hand)
2012: 10-5 w/Jay: Mike Tice OC, 3rd ranked D, Ulacher missed 4 games.
2013: 5-6 w/Jay: Torn groin, Tresty as HC, 30th ranked D.
2014: 5-10 w/Jay: 31st ranked D. Tresty's no accountability. Tillman/Briggs out most of year.

Of those- I think maybe 2010 they have a shot but "elite" would be injured at Halftime too... Again given "Mr. Elite" whoever you chose- they can only play as many games as Jay did- (I'll give you one more in 2014 as he was "benched") How many more games does an Elite QB win with these teams? 2 a year?
Does a Brady lead Bears team- beat his own Brady lead Pat's 50 point team in 2014?
How about a Rodgers lead Bears team vs Rodgers lead 50 point GB team in 2014?
Could Brees have done better then the 7-3 before an he got hurt?

Yes an Elite QB would have made the Chicago Bears better over the same time period as Jay has been here...but really how much?

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Here's a question: Does any of the Jay Cutler Bears teams since 2009 win a Superbowl IF you JUST replaced Jay with: Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees..."elite" qb?
AND they had the same injuries that Jay did each year. Same # of sacks (*I know some will just blame those on Jay too...) Same coaches, same defenses, same wr's, same olines?

2009: 7-9 w/Jay: No Urlacher, Tuner OC, 21st ranked D. Hester #1 WR.
2010: 10-5 w/Jay: Martz OC, 52 sacks given up, Hester #1, 4th ranked D. Knee injury in NFCCG (Todd Collins started and won one game- Concussion to Jay after 9 sack game- Collins threw 5 picks in 1.5 games)
2011: 7-3 w/Jay: Forte out 4 games: Martz OC: 14th ranked D. 49 total sacks given up. Roy Williams/Johnny Knox tied leading WR w/37 catches (Jay had broken hand)
2012: 10-5 w/Jay: Mike Tice OC, 3rd ranked D, Ulacher missed 4 games.
2013: 5-6 w/Jay: Torn groin, Tresty as HC, 30th ranked D.
2014: 5-10 w/Jay: 31st ranked D. Tresty's no accountability. Tillman/Briggs out most of year.

Of those- I think maybe 2010 they have a shot but "elite" would be injured at Halftime too... Again given "Mr. Elite" whoever you chose- they can only play as many games as Jay did- (I'll give you one more in 2014 as he was "benched") How many more games does an Elite QB win with these teams? 2 a year?
Does a Brady lead Bears team- beat his own Brady lead Pat's 50 point team in 2014?
How about a Rodgers lead Bears team vs Rodgers lead 50 point GB team in 2014?
Could Brees have done better then the 7-3 before an he got hurt?

Yes an Elite QB would have made the Chicago Bears better over the same time period as Jay has been here...but really how much?

That's an interesting question, a very legitimate one. And truthfully, of course we will never know. I would say that the possibility does exist that if we had one of the elite QBs, we would have had a better *chance* (emphasis on chance) in 2010 and 2013, which I would say were the two most serious "Super Bowl" candidate teams. Now, of course, you can't snap snap your fingers poof, there's the guy.

I don't think it was a bad idea trying it with Cutler. Not at all. But I do think that in hindsight his extension so far is looking like a big mistake. May he prove that to be wrong.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

Fucking wrong.


Statistics show that in the NFL, teams with positive turnover ratios have a significantly higher probability of winning. Over the past five full seasons, clubs with more takeaways than giveaways have a combined 810-220-2 (.786) record.

Fucking repeating what I said and then saying I'm wrong??? take your meds dude.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

I get I said 99% and your saying 786% but the point is the same. Win the TO battle and you win the war most every time.

 

[wood20ks]

Fucking wrong.


Statistics show that in the NFL, teams with positive turnover ratios have a significantly higher probability of winning. Over the past five full seasons, clubs with more takeaways than giveaways have a combined 810-220-2 (.786) record.

So what your saying is "if Jay Jay the jet plane can keep his ints and fumbles down,we may win more".....Is that what you`re saying?

 

[wood20ks]

While Cutler had more turnovers last year, he was more productive than Stafford. Overall, both offenses were pretty equal. Lions won 11 games. Bears won 5. One defense was tied for 2nd in PA, the other was 31st.

Jay also has the better offense too.......

 

[wood20ks]

That's an interesting question, a very legitimate one. And truthfully, of course we will never know. I would say that the possibility does exist that if we had one of the elite QBs, we would have had a better *chance* (emphasis on chance) in 2010 and 2013, which I would say were the two most serious "Super Bowl" candidate teams. Now, of course, you can't snap snap your fingers poof, there's the guy.

I don't think it was a bad idea trying it with Cutler. Not at all. But I do think that in hindsight his extension so far is looking like a big mistake. May he prove that to be wrong.

And its gonna take 2-3 yrs of great qbing by Jay to prove me wrong..........

You would think that if he was this qb these guys are talking about us having,and the offenses he had the last couple of years,you`d think there was a possibility of him even making a pro-bowl........But nope that has not happened either.

 

[wood20ks]

Here's a question: Does any of the Jay Cutler Bears teams since 2009 win a Superbowl IF you JUST replaced Jay with: Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees..."elite" qb?
AND they had the same injuries that Jay did each year. Same # of sacks (*I know some will just blame those on Jay too...) Same coaches, same defenses, same wr's, same olines?

2009: 7-9 w/Jay: No Urlacher, Tuner OC, 21st ranked D. Hester #1 WR.
2010: 10-5 w/Jay: Martz OC, 52 sacks given up, Hester #1, 4th ranked D. Knee injury in NFCCG (Todd Collins started and won one game- Concussion to Jay after 9 sack game- Collins threw 5 picks in 1.5 games)
2011: 7-3 w/Jay: Forte out 4 games: Martz OC: 14th ranked D. 49 total sacks given up. Roy Williams/Johnny Knox tied leading WR w/37 catches (Jay had broken hand)
2012: 10-5 w/Jay: Mike Tice OC, 3rd ranked D, Ulacher missed 4 games.
2013: 5-6 w/Jay: Torn groin, Tresty as HC, 30th ranked D.
2014: 5-10 w/Jay: 31st ranked D. Tresty's no accountability. Tillman/Briggs out most of year.

Of those- I think maybe 2010 they have a shot but "elite" would be injured at Halftime too... Again given "Mr. Elite" whoever you chose- they can only play as many games as Jay did- (I'll give you one more in 2014 as he was "benched") How many more games does an Elite QB win with these teams? 2 a year?
Does a Brady lead Bears team- beat his own Brady lead Pat's 50 point team in 2014?
How about a Rodgers lead Bears team vs Rodgers lead 50 point GB team in 2014?
Could Brees have done better then the 7-3 before an he got hurt?

Yes an Elite QB would have made the Chicago Bears better over the same time period as Jay has been here...but really how much?

Injuries?...........lmao
I would of compared it to with the games they played in in the years you highlited.....not if they had games taken away because Jay was injured..

And how much......No one will ever know.

 

[anotheridiot]

Do you ever pay attention to what you post? You can't be serious with some of this stuff.

Very little effort was made to getting him surrounded by better talent until 2012, when Marshall and AJ came on board. Cutler came here in 2009 from Denver- where he went from throwing to Marshall and Royal to the likes of Hester and Knox. Then on to Martz where he has basically two subpar route runners as featured targets and a line that couldn't protect him. A line no less that featured 7 blockers as TEs generally weren't viewed as pass catching options in his offense. Now you're telling me that he's been coddled??? FTR, I'm not an apologist by any stretch. However, as an NFL fan who is a die hard Bears Fan, I remember a lot. It's called separating what is from what isn't, and is something you completely lack.

Cutler interferes with the defense? Are you claiming he's the primary reason they've averaged giving up ~ 4 TDs per game over the last 2 seasons? This might be your finest piece of nonsense to date.

First guy they signed was a big name left tackle from the rams. They drafted Olsen, pulled Hester into the offense from being a defensive back when he was the all around weapon in the nfl, How can you hate on Knox, he was turning into a force, but instead of letting the guy streak outside, they forced him to the middle and his spine was bent in half backwards. Nobody was able to keep up with that kid.

You want to bitch about defense, what was done to improve the defense? All I said is they chose to keep giving Cutler new options, new coaches, new offenses to continue to try to fix him. I am not disagreeing that the choices were bad, or wrong, but all the emphasis went to the offensive side of the ball while players that should have known what they were doing were the ones brought in on defense. No budding superstars, just veterans that their team was done with.

As far as my interfering with the defense line, hold onto the ball, put points on the board, not turnovers and three and outs. Interfering is having the front office continuously finding offensive players that could work with Cutler instead of finding defensive players to rebuild the historic bear defense. I guess that is interfering with the defensive identity this fan base has grown to embrace.

 

[leomaz]

So what your saying is "if Jay Jay the jet plane can keep his ints and fumbles down,we may win more".....Is that what you`re saying?

Actually the whole fucking team.