Series Thread: World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros

[packerzrule]

Kershaw putting the post season demons to rest

he has been lights out

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

A big part of it is the bullpen is now trustworthy. Kershaw no longer has to throw a 125 pitch gem in order to secure the win.

I wouldn't use wins as a way to measure his post season success or struggles, and he's never thrown 125 pitches in a postseason game.

He gave up 4 ER in 6.1 IP vs the D-Backs in the NLDS this year with the trustworthy bullpen.

I don't know what to think. He's had three great postseason starts in a row this year, but they were preceded by a clunker. He's tossed three good postseason games in a row before and subsequently shit the bed.

I think the jury is still out on his playoff prowess.

 

[OutlawImmortal]

He gave up 4 ER in 6.1 IP vs the D-Backs in the NLDS this year with the trustworthy bullpen.

It happens. Kluber gave up 9 ER in 6.1 innings in the ALDS. Would you say he's a choke artist?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It happens. Kluber gave up 9 ER in 6.1 innings in the ALDS. Would you say he's a choke artist?

Indeed it does happen, but it's happened quite a bit to Kershaw. In eighteen postseason starts, he's given up 4 or more runs in six of them, including one this year and two last year. He's got a 4.21 ERA in 113 postseason innings. Compare that to his 2.36 regular season career mark. To me, that's much more than the occasional, "well, bad starts happen" kind of deal.

Kluber's ALDS struggles have nothing to do with Kershaw's playoff struggles, but I'll accommodate you anyway.

My opinion is that Kluber was/is injured. He missed time this year due to lower back issues that affected his command. He labored a bit in his last start vs the White Sox. An injury would explain going with Bauer in Game 1, Kluber's command issues in Games 2 and 5, and the decision to start Perez behind the dish in Game 5 (Gomes caught 26 of Kluber's 29 starts, but Perez has more experience with the rest of the staff).

If he wasn't injured, then I question his ability to be a lock down postseason pitcher. However, last year Kluber was dominant over five consecutive starts - a streak that Kershaw has not matched.

I think Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, but given the information that I have, if I had to pick a pitcher to take into the postseason, it wouldn't be him.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Indeed it does happen, but it's happened quite a bit to Kershaw. In eighteen postseason starts, he's given up 4 or more runs in six of them, including one this year and two last year. He's got a 4.21 ERA in 113 postseason innings. Compare that to his 2.36 regular season career mark. To me, that's much more than the occasional, "well, bad starts happen" kind of deal.

Kluber's ALDS struggles have nothing to do with Kershaw's playoff struggles, but I'll accommodate you anyway.

My opinion is that Kluber was/is injured. He missed time this year due to lower back issues that affected his command. He labored a bit in his last start vs the White Sox. An injury would explain going with Bauer in Game 1, Kluber's command issues in Games 2 and 5, and the decision to start Perez behind the dish in Game 5 (Gomes caught 26 of Kluber's 29 starts, but Perez has more experience with the rest of the staff).

If he wasn't injured, then I question his ability to be a lock down postseason pitcher. However, last year Kluber was dominant over five consecutive starts - a streak that Kershaw has not matched.

I think Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, but given the information that I have, if I had to pick a pitcher to take into the postseason, it wouldn't be him.

I think Kershaw having to put the team on his shoulders more in years passed was the larger issue. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't think that Kershaw should have put up last night's numbers every start. But the reason I was so excited (as opposed to previous years) was specifically because in Octobers passed, he has had to pitch longer than he should have, and on less rest than he should have, for many of those games he choked. I think it's a pretty clear reason why his postseason ERA in the 7th inning was like 25.00. I think Kershaw had way too much pressure on him to single-handedly carry LA. Aside from the performances of the rest of the rotation, or his run support, having to pitch on 4 days rest after every season, and be counted on to get through at least the 7th in his starts is too much to ask every year. This year, he has considerably less pressure to carry the team. The pen is stellar, and he knows that he doesn't have to go out about every game on short rest, and expected to throw up shutouts through 7IP, just to make sure his pen cant fuck it up.

I don't want this to be taken as Kershaw just couldn't handle the pressure. I'm saying that year in and year out, putting that pressure squarely on him every October is ridiculous without other pitchers; so he can have normal rest, and a pen that can come in at any time and keep zeros on the board.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I think Kershaw having to put the team on his shoulders more in years passed was the larger issue. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't think that Kershaw should have put up last night's numbers every start. But the reason I was so excited (as opposed to previous years) was specifically because in Octobers passed, he has had to pitch longer than he should have, and on less rest than he should have, for many of those games he choked. I think it's a pretty clear reason why his postseason ERA in the 7th inning was like 25.00. I think Kershaw had way too much pressure on him to single-handedly carry LA. Aside from the performances of the rest of the rotation, or his run support, having to pitch on 4 days rest after every season, and be counted on to get through at least the 7th in his starts is too much to ask every year. This year, he has considerably less pressure to carry the team. The pen is stellar, and he knows that he doesn't have to go out about every game on short rest, and expected to throw up shutouts through 7IP, just to make sure his pen cant fuck it up.

I don't want this to be taken as Kershaw just couldn't handle the pressure. I'm saying that year in and year out, putting that pressure squarely on him every October is ridiculous without other pitchers; so he can have normal rest, and a pen that can come in at any time and keep zeros on the board.

I see what you're saying, and if he hadn't had a shitty start vs Arizona this postseason I would put more stock into what you're saying. As it is, I'm still in wait-and-see mode.

For the record, I'm not trying to bash Kershaw. I am rooting for the Dodgers because I consider myself a fan of his. I drafted him in by keeper league back in the offseason between 2006-2007 seasons and have had him since. I'm just looking at the info I have, and I'm not convinced he doesn't have issues with postseason pitching.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

I hate Baseball

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I hate Baseball

Come over for snacks and drinks

 

[jvett77]

I hate Baseball

There a thread for you, somewhere.

 

[1phlapdown]

I think Kershaw having to put the team on his shoulders more in years passed was the larger issue. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't think that Kershaw should have put up last night's numbers every start. But the reason I was so excited (as opposed to previous years) was specifically because in Octobers passed, he has had to pitch longer than he should have, and on less rest than he should have, for many of those games he choked. I think it's a pretty clear reason why his postseason ERA in the 7th inning was like 25.00. I think Kershaw had way too much pressure on him to single-handedly carry LA. Aside from the performances of the rest of the rotation, or his run support, having to pitch on 4 days rest after every season, and be counted on to get through at least the 7th in his starts is too much to ask every year. This year, he has considerably less pressure to carry the team. The pen is stellar, and he knows that he doesn't have to go out about every game on short rest, and expected to throw up shutouts through 7IP, just to make sure his pen cant fuck it up.

I don't want this to be taken as Kershaw just couldn't handle the pressure. I'm saying that year in and year out, putting that pressure squarely on him every October is ridiculous without other pitchers; so he can have normal rest, and a pen that can come in at any time and keep zeros on the board.

Over the last few years, come Oct, time and time again a coworker (who umps organized ball and knows more about BB than anyone I've met) would come to work and rip into the manager for F'ing the game up when 'Shaw was pitching.

 

[Sportsguy9695]

I think tonight with Verlander on the mound this gives the astros there best chance to win.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I hate Baseball

Dude. Pull up your big boy pants and get the fuck on with it already.

After the Indians lost Game 5 to the Yankees, I told Mrs Redfoot that I was done with baseball forever. The next morning, I told her I wasn't done with it forever, but that I wasn't going to watch anymore of the postseason. Later that evening, I was watching the elimination game between the Cubs and Nats.

It's been four days. Snap out of it.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Dude. Pull up your big boy pants and get the fuck on with it already.

After the Indians lost Game 5 to the Yankees, I told Mrs Redfoot that I was done with baseball forever. The next morning, I told her I wasn't done with it forever, but that I wasn't going to watch anymore of the postseason. Later that evening, I was watching the elimination game between the Cubs and Nats.

It's been four days. Snap out of it.

Can Mrs. Redfoot come join me and Hu for Snacks and Drinks tonight?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Can Mrs. Redfoot come join me and Hu for Snacks and Drinks tonight?

She's on the rag.

 

[OutlawImmortal]

Indeed it does happen, but it's happened quite a bit to Kershaw. In eighteen postseason starts, he's given up 4 or more runs in six of them, including one this year and two last year. He's got a 4.21 ERA in 113 postseason innings. Compare that to his 2.36 regular season career mark. To me, that's much more than the occasional, "well, bad starts happen" kind of deal.

Kluber's ALDS struggles have nothing to do with Kershaw's playoff struggles, but I'll accommodate you anyway.

My opinion is that Kluber was/is injured. He missed time this year due to lower back issues that affected his command. He labored a bit in his last start vs the White Sox. An injury would explain going with Bauer in Game 1, Kluber's command issues in Games 2 and 5, and the decision to start Perez behind the dish in Game 5 (Gomes caught 26 of Kluber's 29 starts, but Perez has more experience with the rest of the staff).

If he wasn't injured, then I question his ability to be a lock down postseason pitcher. However, last year Kluber was dominant over five consecutive starts - a streak that Kershaw has not matched.

I think Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, but given the information that I have, if I had to pick a pitcher to take into the postseason, it wouldn't be him.

I feel like Kluber was a good example. For the record, I'm not trying to attack Kluber or the Indians. You believe his struggles this year were due to injury, I believe Kershaw's struggles of the past were due to the Dodgers pitching staff simply not being good enough. Kershaw has continually been asked to go at least 7 innings in the postseason and continually been asked to pitch on short rest to save a series, until this year of course. Kluber has only pitched 7 innings in a playoff game once in his career. I don't like to make excuses but I feel like this is solid reasoning as to why Kershaw has struggled in October in the past. If the Dodgers were able to take Kershaw out in the 6th under Mattingly and Torre, his postseason ERA and record would be sparkling as most of his meltdowns happened in the 7th or later.

I can recall at least 1 occasion against the Cardinals where Kershaw pitched 4-5 innings of no hit ball only to be left out to dry when he ran out of gas in the 7th. Then the hit parade came and the Dodgers couldn't trust anyone to stop the bleeding more than Kershaw, so his ERA skyrocketed.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I feel like Kluber was a good example. For the record, I'm not trying to attack Kluber or the Indians. You believe his struggles this year were due to injury, I believe Kershaw's struggles of the past were due to the Dodgers pitching staff simply not being good enough. Kershaw has continually been asked to go at least 7 innings in the postseason and continually been asked to pitch on short rest to save a series, until this year of course. Kluber has only pitched 7 innings in a playoff game once in his career. I don't like to make excuses but I feel like this is solid reasoning as to why Kershaw has struggled in October in the past. If the Dodgers were able to take Kershaw out in the 6th under Mattingly and Torre, his postseason ERA and record would be sparkling as most of his meltdowns happened in the 7th or later.

I can recall at least 1 occasion against the Cardinals where Kershaw pitched 4-5 innings of no hit ball only to be left out to dry when he ran out of gas in the 7th. Then the hit parade came and the Dodgers couldn't trust anyone to stop the bleeding more than Kershaw, so his ERA skyrocketed.

You keep talking about the past, as if that's the only place Kershaw's struggled in the postseason. He shit the bed this postseason against the Dbacks.

How do you explain that?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Kershaw has continually been asked to go at least 7 innings in the postseason and continually been asked to pitch on short rest to save a series, until this year of course

Go "at least" seven innings? He's never pitched more than seven innings in a playoff game.

Kluber has only pitched 7 innings in a playoff game once in his career.

So what? Kershaw has never done it more than once in any postseason.

And you have to be fucking kidding about which pitcher has been asked to do what. Do you remember what the Indians' starting rotation looked like last year?

Kershaw has never been asked to do what Kluber did last year. Six starts across twenty-six calendar days. That's six starts with an average of 3.33 days rest in between and Kluber did it with a 1.83 ERA.

Kershaw has had postseason issues. Period. If he hadn't spit the bit vs ARI, I'd tend to believe they're in the past, but he did, so I'll wait to see.

 

[OutlawImmortal]

Go "at least" seven innings? He's never pitched more than seven innings in a playoff game.



So what? Kershaw has never done it more than once in any postseason.

And you have to be fucking kidding about which pitcher has been asked to do what. Do you remember what the Indians' starting rotation looked like last year?

Kershaw has never been asked to do what Kluber did last year. Six starts across twenty-six calendar days. That's six starts with an average of 3.33 days rest in between and Kluber did it with a 1.83 ERA.

Kershaw has had postseason issues. Period. If he hadn't spit the bit vs ARI, I'd tend to believe they're in the past, but he did, so I'll wait to see.

It wasn't even that bad of a start. "shitting the bed" is strong way to put it, I doubt you would say Kluber shit the bed in Game 7 last year with the way you believe he's so much more clutch than Kershaw. Kershaw's worst start this year wasn't that bad.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It wasn't even that bad of a start. "shitting the bed" is strong way to put it, I doubt you would say Kluber shit the bed in Game 7 last year with the way you believe he's so much more clutch than Kershaw. Kershaw's worst start this year wasn't that bad.

Four earned runs. That’s not nearly what I’d expect from an ace of Kluber’s or Kershaw’s abilities.

Kluber shit the bed in game seven. Of course, he’d pitched his arm off at that point, which you can’t say about Kershaw’s clunker this year.

Given the numbers, I’m surprised you can’t acknowledge that their might be an issue. Doesn’t seem very objective to me.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I see what you're saying, and if he hadn't had a shitty start vs Arizona this postseason I would put more stock into what you're saying. As it is, I'm still in wait-and-see mode.

For the record, I'm not trying to bash Kershaw. I am rooting for the Dodgers because I consider myself a fan of his. I drafted him in by keeper league back in the offseason between 2006-2007 seasons and have had him since. I'm just looking at the info I have, and I'm not convinced he doesn't have issues with postseason pitching.

No worries, I think his October optics look terrible, no question.

But breaking it down, I think some things can help to paint a more accurate picture:

I'm not really going to go back to Kershaw's first two years of the postseason, because we aren't talking about '08 and '09 Kershaw. When he finally got back to the postseason in 2013 and onward, his postseason ERA is 3.95.

Breaking down those starts:

2013

His 2 NLDS starts against ATL in 2013 were a total of 13 IP with 1 ER. We can all agree that is vintage Kershaw.
His first 2013 NLCS start was also great--6 IP 0 ER.
His second NLCS start was terrible--4 IP and 7 ER. No excuse there, he had plenty of rest, and only went 4 IP.

2014

The next year, in the 2014 NLDS (against StL),is where I think it starts to become clear.
In game 1, LA was up 6-2 after 6 with Kershaw pitching, and Mattingly left him in for the 7th because of of the shitty pen. And, Kershaw threw 110 pitches and gave up 8 ER in the 7th.

Kershaw's next start in the series, game 4, Kershaw pitched on 3 days rest, and threw 6 scoreless innings. Donnie left him in to go pitch the 7th, and he immediately puts two on, and on his 102nd pitch gives up a 3-run hr and LA lost 3-2. There was no reason Kershaw should have gone so far in both games; LA had a big lead in game 1, and he was only on 3 days rest for game 4.

2015

In 2015, against the Mets, Kershaw again pitched game 1, again pitched through 6 (with only 1 ER), and then went back out in the 7th and gave up 2 more ERs on his 113th pitch. Kershaw then threw in game 4 (again, on only 3 days rest), pitched 7 IP and only gave up 1 ER in 94 pitches.

2016

In 2016, Kershaw pitched game 1 of the DS against Scherzer, in DC, gave up 3ER in 5 IP and got the W on 101 pitches. Not the best performance but not bad. But then he again threw on 3 days rest for game 4, and again pitched through 6 with only 2 ER, and again with a 5-2 lead went out for the 7th and on 110 pitches gave up 2 more ERs.

He came in for a save (.2 IP 0ER) against the Nats, and 3 days later, his first start against the Cubs in the CS was a solid start (7 IP 0ER).

Kershaw's last start against the Cubs was bad, and on plenty of rest. He gave up 5 ER in 5 IP.

2017

This postseason, he started against AZ and gave up 4 HRs as you mentioned. And 2 of them came in the 7th with LA up 7-2. Why even keep him in still, especially with the pen?

His next 3 starts (including last night), he gave up 2 ER, 1 ER, and 1 ER (respectively), and went 5, 6, and 7 IP. Pitch counts all in the 80s on good rest.



So looking at it, Kershaw had three legitimately bad starts on good rest and well before the 7th:

2013 NLCS GM 6: 4 IP, 7 ER
2016 NLDS GM 1: 5 IP, 3 ER
2016 NLCS GM 6: 5 IP, 4 ER

He had 8 starts where he pitched at 6-7 IP and gave up 0-1 ER. One of those was on 3 days rest. The lone exception was his first start this year against the Cubs where he went 5 IP and 2 ER.

Finally, he had 5 starts that he pitched through 6 innings well, and then shouldn't have gone out for the 7th. Three of those games LA was up by +4 , +3, and +5 and should have been pulled for that alone with a good pen.
2014 NLDS GM 1: 6 IP 2 ER.......7th 8 ER on 110 pitches
2014 NLDS GM 4: 6 IP 0 ER.......7th 3 ER on 102 pitches and 3 days rest
2015 NLDS GM 1: 6 IP 1 ER.......7th 2 ER on 113 pitches
2016 NLDS GM 4: 6 IP 2 ER.......7th 3 ER on 110 pitches and 3 days rest
2017 NLDS GM 1: 6 IP 2 ER.......7th 2 ER on 100 pitches.

If we're trying to find the real Kershaw, his postseason ERA 2013-present without those five 7th innings (all of his other starts good and bad, and the five starts through 6 innings) his ERA is 2.42.

I understand that these stats seem cherry-picked, but if we are looking at the modern Kershaw, and without those 5 7th-innings he had no business pitching in, his postseason ERA is 2.42 and that's pretty good.

For reference: Clayton Kershaw Postseason Pitching Gamelogs | Baseball-Reference.com