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ericd7633
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In each of the last 4 CFP's we had at least one new team make the playoff every season.
2015: Michigan State, Clemson, Oklahoma
2016: Washington
2017: Georgia
2018: Notre Dame
Is this a trend that will continue or end this season?
The contenders:
LSU - Haven't really come close to getting selected to the CFP. Schedule is brutal the rest of the way for them. Have to play at Alabama and get UF and Auburn at home. OOC could set up really nice for them. Have a win over potential Big 12 Champion Texas, and potential Mtn. West Champion Utah State, also Georgia Southern has the potential to be a .500+ win. Does 11-1 get them in with the potential of their wins?
Auburn - Had a chance to go in 2017 but lost in the SEC CG to Georgia. Schedule is brutal with still having to play UF, LSU, Georgia and Bama. Also their OOC sets up to have a win over the potential Pac 12 Champion, and get wins over .500+ teams in Tulane and Kent State. Their schedule will be one of the toughest in the CFP era. Does 11-1 get them in?
Wisconsin - Much like Auburn they had a chance to go in 2017, but lost in the B1G CG to Ohio State. Schedule is certainly tough, but manageable. They get ranked Michigan State and Iowa at home, but have to travel to Columbus in late October. OOC doesn't really do them any favors with USF and CMU looking like bad teams. Kent State may provide a .500+ win for them. Will a split with Ohio State be enough, it may be if the win they get is in the B1G CG.
Florida - Haven't really come all that close to making the CFP in their history. They have a brutal schedule as well having to play Auburn, LSU and Georgia over a 4 game stretch. With Miami and FSU being down again this year, it doesn't appear getting those wins will fall in the ranked win category, but I can see both of them potentially being a .500+ win.
Iowa - Had a chance to go to the CFP in 2015, but lost a close one to Michigan State in the B1G CG. Have to play at Michigan and Wisconsin, while getting Penn State at home. Certainly possible for a 2-1 stretch in those games, but for them to be a true contender would likely have to go 3-0. Have a solid win over Iowa State which could give them an additional ranked win, but at the very least will give them a .500+ win.
Penn State - Came close in 2016, but finished ranked 5th by the committee, who correctly chose Ohio State to go to the playoff. Have a brutal schedule for them as well. Travel to Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State and get Michigan at home. OOC have a win over Pitt and Buffalo who both could be a .500+ win on the resume.
Highly unlikely contenders:
UVA - Still undefeated, and have a huge opportunity this weekend travelling to Notre Dame. If they get by ND they have a schedule set up for them to go 12-0 heading into an ACC CG against Clemson.
Boise State - Also still undefeated, need help from FSU, Marshall and BYU so they have some resume wins on their schedule. Even going undefeated probably won't be enough.
Teams that possibly still control their own destiny:
Texas.
Who has the best chance to break through to the CFP?
2015: Michigan State, Clemson, Oklahoma
2016: Washington
2017: Georgia
2018: Notre Dame
Is this a trend that will continue or end this season?
The contenders:
LSU - Haven't really come close to getting selected to the CFP. Schedule is brutal the rest of the way for them. Have to play at Alabama and get UF and Auburn at home. OOC could set up really nice for them. Have a win over potential Big 12 Champion Texas, and potential Mtn. West Champion Utah State, also Georgia Southern has the potential to be a .500+ win. Does 11-1 get them in with the potential of their wins?
Auburn - Had a chance to go in 2017 but lost in the SEC CG to Georgia. Schedule is brutal with still having to play UF, LSU, Georgia and Bama. Also their OOC sets up to have a win over the potential Pac 12 Champion, and get wins over .500+ teams in Tulane and Kent State. Their schedule will be one of the toughest in the CFP era. Does 11-1 get them in?
Wisconsin - Much like Auburn they had a chance to go in 2017, but lost in the B1G CG to Ohio State. Schedule is certainly tough, but manageable. They get ranked Michigan State and Iowa at home, but have to travel to Columbus in late October. OOC doesn't really do them any favors with USF and CMU looking like bad teams. Kent State may provide a .500+ win for them. Will a split with Ohio State be enough, it may be if the win they get is in the B1G CG.
Florida - Haven't really come all that close to making the CFP in their history. They have a brutal schedule as well having to play Auburn, LSU and Georgia over a 4 game stretch. With Miami and FSU being down again this year, it doesn't appear getting those wins will fall in the ranked win category, but I can see both of them potentially being a .500+ win.
Iowa - Had a chance to go to the CFP in 2015, but lost a close one to Michigan State in the B1G CG. Have to play at Michigan and Wisconsin, while getting Penn State at home. Certainly possible for a 2-1 stretch in those games, but for them to be a true contender would likely have to go 3-0. Have a solid win over Iowa State which could give them an additional ranked win, but at the very least will give them a .500+ win.
Penn State - Came close in 2016, but finished ranked 5th by the committee, who correctly chose Ohio State to go to the playoff. Have a brutal schedule for them as well. Travel to Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State and get Michigan at home. OOC have a win over Pitt and Buffalo who both could be a .500+ win on the resume.
Highly unlikely contenders:
UVA - Still undefeated, and have a huge opportunity this weekend travelling to Notre Dame. If they get by ND they have a schedule set up for them to go 12-0 heading into an ACC CG against Clemson.
Boise State - Also still undefeated, need help from FSU, Marshall and BYU so they have some resume wins on their schedule. Even going undefeated probably won't be enough.
Teams that possibly still control their own destiny:
Texas.
Who has the best chance to break through to the CFP?
