Will 2011 be Timmy's best season yet?

[nateistheshi]

I know he was badass in 2008 and 2009 and still very good in 2010 (except for August,) but I still think that he can be even better this next season and here is why:

Remember that horrendous August stretch where his mechanics were all out of whack? Remember the key to him getting out of it? His mechanics did eventually get sorted out, but his former velocity was never restored in 2010; he regained his dominance due to his increased use of his new slider.
Tim Lincecum PitchFx Game Graphs 0 | FanGraphs Baseball

I've placed Timmy's slider usage by start according to the link above.

04/05=2
04/11=3
04/17=11
04/23=13
04/28=2
05/04=20
05/09=3
05/15=6
05/20=15
05/26=6
05/31=0
06/06=15
06/11=2
06/16=5
06/22=9
06/27=0
07/02=6
07/07=2
07/15=6
07/20=1
07/25=9
07/30=1
08/05=6
08/10=2
08/15=3
08/21=4
08/27=10
09/01=5
09/07=11
09/12=10
09/18=17
09/24=35
09/29=8
10/07=20
10/16=16
10/21=20
10/27=28
11/01=41
These numbers are probably not all exact as it's possible that in the earlier starts of the season his curveball and slider could have been confused (it didn't get its distinct and crisp movement according to the graphs in the link until later in the season.) I've come to the conclusion that (feel free to refute me if you disagree) Timmy has always thrown a slider, but he might've figured out a new grip on the pitch which created a much more distinct movement from his curve. He used this pitch more and more at the end of the season when his starts were more crucial due to the new movement he and Posey might have trusted it more and it sure paid off.

So, everyone heard about how it turns out that Timmy had been skipping the long toss that had helped earlier, well I'd imagine that he's keeping up with his workout regimen and doing plenty of long toss this offseason. The guy named his dog Cy, so I'm sure he cares a lot about losing the CYA to Halladay, so now we have a motivated Timmy that will be working on his long toss, getting his velocity up, and he has a nasty new slider.

Is anybody else anxious to see what kind of numbers he's going to put up next year? I see him honestly having his best year yet, what are everybody else's thoughts on this?

 

[calsnowskier]

Your analysis is stronger than mine, but I totally think he COULD have his best year in 2011.

My reasoning is that he was still a total stud in 2010 if you remove August. Take August out of the equation, and he is seriously in the talk for the CY. This, I think, slapped him in the face that he needs to continue to work to be at the top of the game, and I think he WANTS to be at the top of the game.

 

[SFAnthem]

I don't have the statistical data to back up my claims either but I think Timmy is going be a better pitcher than the previous three seasons, too.

The ability to adjust and make adjustments based on your opponent adjustments has been key to maintaining success in a sport like Baseball where you face your opponents so many times a year.

His ability to evolve into a different pitcher each year is proof that Timmy is ahead of the adjustment curve so when hitters adjusted to his 96+ fastball - he dropped that power changeup on them.

When he lost his control in August 2010, he learned to make adjustments to regain his form .. then after learning the slider, he really took off again.

He is gaining a new weapon with every pitch he learns. Now, hitters have to be aware of the slider..along with the fastball..and the curve...and the changeup.

If he can maintain control, I see him becoming Maddux-like.

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't have the statistical data to back up my claims either but I think Timmy is going be a better pitcher than the previous three seasons, too.

The ability to adjust and make adjustments based on your opponent adjustments has been key to maintaining success in a sport like Baseball where you face your opponents so many times a year.

His ability to evolve into a different pitcher each year is proof that Timmy is ahead of the adjustment curve so when hitters adjusted to his 96+ fastball - he dropped that power changeup on them.

When he lost his control in August 2010, he learned to make adjustments to regain his form .. then after learning the slider, he really took off again.

He is gaining a new weapon with every pitch he learns. Now, hitters have to be aware of the slider..along with the fastball..and the curve...and the changeup.

If he can maintain control, I see him becoming Maddux-like.

If Tim gains control of Maddux-level, I think we are talking about him being in his own league out there.

His new slider grip has already shown that it can be a top pitch in the league along with the already top-of-the-league pitch in the changeup, the fastball keeps them honest and he can whip out the big curve anytime. Hitters will have no chance if he can do that with impeccable command.

 

[calsnowskier]

If Tim gains control of Maddux-level, I think we are talking about him being in his own league out there.

His new slider grip has already shown that it can be a top pitch in the league along with the already top-of-the-league pitch in the changeup, the fastball keeps them honest and he can whip out the big curve anytime. Hitters will have no chance if he can do that with impeccable command.

Kid came up with a 100 mph heater, and now it is only there to "keep them honest"...

Talk about a young pitcher who has COMPLETELY evolved his game is only 3 years (amassing 2 CYA's and a WS ring in the process)...

 

[nateistheshi]

Timmy certainly has the motivation this year, and his control is light years beyond what it was just a few years ago. Keep in mind that in addition to his frame and injury concerns, teams passed on him because he wasn't much of a strike thrower (at least according to Dave Cameron they did.) Take increased control (it doesn't even need to be Maddux like, lets go with Dan Haren like) and the fact that his stuff will be nastier in 2011 than in 2010 (assuming he works on it this offseason) and you have a very lightweight strikeout artist with incredibly nasty stuff and very good control. Think about this for a second, here are the 162 game averages of Lincecum and a pitcher that I think he's very similar to:
Lincecum:
IP = 225 HR = 14 ERA+ = 142 WHIP = 1.182 K/BB = 3.10 K/9 = 10.1 BB/9 = 3.3 H/9 = 7.4
Pedro:
IP = 217 HR = 18 ERA+ = 154 WHIP = 1.054 K/BB = 4.15 K/9 = 10.0 BB/9 = 2.4 H/9 = 7.1

Obviously these are in different settings, with Pedro pitching in the height of the steroid era, but their career arcs are very similar. Pedro lost velocity as he aged and made up for it by improving his control, his command, and his secondary pitches. These numbers include Pedro's decline so you could argue they aren't fair, but they also include his prime which you could argue Lincecum hasn't hit yet, so the comp is somewhat fair. If we've already seen Timmy's prime then of course he has no chance of being Pedro, but I see those numbers, and the only real difference I see is that one pitcher has better control than the other. If Timmy's arsenal slightly improves this offseason due to his new pitches and his workout regimen should help his velocity and endurance, then improved control can turn him into the next Pedro, which is an incredibly scary thought for NL West hitters.

 

[nateistheshi]

To sum up the above post, yes I did just compare Lincecum to Pedro Martinez, and yes I do know who Pedro Martinez is. The only way this comes to fruition is if Timmy keeps up with his workouts to maintain his velocity and his stuff and if he improves his control...ok you can all make fun of me for calling him the next Pedro now.

 

[calsnowskier]

To sum up the above post, yes I did just compare Lincecum to Pedro Martinez, and yes I do know who Pedro Martinez is. The only way this comes to fruition is if Timmy keeps up with his workouts to maintain his velocity and his stuff and if he improves his control...ok you can all make fun of me for calling him the next Pedro now.

???

Havent we all been comparing him to Pedro for the last couple years? Or was it just me?

 

[nateistheshi]

???

Havent we all been comparing him to Pedro for the last couple years? Or was it just me?

I thought that all of the Pedro comparisons thus far were driven from his size + velocity. I'm comparing him to Pedro based on where I see his career heading if he keeps trying to improve. Of course if you guys meant that as well, then I guess I'm just late to the party.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not one to get TOOOO far into the stats. I like looking at stats to confirm (or completely destroy) my initial take on things.

My initial take was that Timmeh, in both physical stature as well as game stature, reminded me of Pedro. I think that if Timmeh continues, we will remember him on a level with Pedro, meaning their general production will be about the same (a 1-1 trade would be a realistic deal).

I leave all the math-y, stat-y stuff to you guys

(BTW, this was where I was coming from in the now-infamous Posey/Biggio debate, although that was a bit more direct comparison than my intentions with Timmeh/Pedro)

 

[SFGRTB]

I seriously think that Tim could reach 280-300 K's this year, without blowing out his arm.

He reached 265 in 08' when all he had was the fastball/curve combo and it was also when he was beginning to toy with the changeup.

His K's took a dip last year, but in that August where he struggled he averaged 14 less K's than the rest of the months (besides October since it was only 1 month) and if you add in those K's to his average, it puts him closer to 263 (his average over 08'-09').

With improved command, I don't think that he will have less K's, I think they will increase, with more efficiency. More 3/4 pitch strikeouts. And I've already covered why I think his stuff will be the best yet in a previous post.

So while his K's overall took a dip last year even when factoring in the bad August, I'm thinking with his repertoire of pitches, improved command and motivation to be the best, I think that he will not only get back to his average K numbers, but reach the upper 200s even 300s and at the same time, not being concerned over pitch counts.

 

[nateistheshi]

I seriously think that Tim could reach 280-300 K's this year, without blowing out his arm.

He reached 265 in 08' when all he had was the fastball/curve combo and it was also when he was beginning to toy with the changeup.

His K's took a dip last year, but in that August where he struggled he averaged 14 less K's than the rest of the months (besides October since it was only 1 month) and if you add in those K's to his average, it puts him closer to 263 (his average over 08'-09').

With improved command, I don't think that he will have less K's, I think they will increase, with more efficiency. More 3/4 pitch strikeouts. And I've already covered why I think his stuff will be the best yet in a previous post.

So while his K's overall took a dip last year even when factoring in the bad August, I'm thinking with his repertoire of pitches, improved command and motivation to be the best, I think that he will not only get back to his average K numbers, but reach the upper 200s even 300s and at the same time, not being concerned over pitch counts.

Exactly, I couldn't have said that any better. +1 Rep to you sir.