Why did 11 - 1 Alabama get picked over 12 - 1 Wisconsin?

[7Samurai13]

I thought that was a requirement on the hoop?

Only little bitches make threads for every little slight against their team.

 

[4down20]

Yes. Hence the reason they release an unofficial line. I know this is going to sound crazy to someone who only knows about football what Saban tells you to believe — but people bet on games outside of Vegas. Pretty crazy, huh?

Could you bet on the Stanford vs USC game in Vegas? Yes

Could you bet on the Michigan vs App St game in Vegas? No.

Can you bet your cousin any bullshit you want? Yes.

It's not Vegas line if you can't bet on it.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I use to go to quite a few 49'rs games during those years.

I remember Singletary could not find a decent offensive coordinator and had a new one it seemed like every year, if not every year.

Their final season they started out like 0-5, maybe 0-6 before finishing with that 6-10 record. Mostly due to struggling on offense - including getting shut out in 1 game.

What Harbaugh did was fix the offense. If Singletary could have found an offense, Harbaugh never gets hired.

Yeah — they were a defensive juggernaut — the first 5 games, only gave up an avg of 27 Ppg in the 5 losses — damn offense.

Also figured I would throw it out there — the guy who built the 49ers in your eyes and was looking for an offensive coordinator every year it seems — he was Head Coach for..........2 years.

Stick to talking about topics you know — like anything Saban tells you to believe.

 

[4down20]

Yeah — they were a defensive juggernaut — the first 5 games, only gave up an avg of 27 Ppg in the 5 losses — damn offense.

Also figured I would throw it out there — the guy who built the 49ers in your eyes and was looking for an offensive coordinator every year it seems — he was Head Coach for..........2 years.

Stick to talking about topics you know — like anything Saban tells you to believe.

They fired the previous coach midway through the season and he was interim head coach. He had been on the defensive side of the ball for 3 years prior as well as LB coach...which the "interim" tag should have clued you in on.

And ask Alabama fans why they talk about the offensive struggles against Clemson last year rather than the fact the defense was out there for 99 plays and gave up 21 points in the 4th quarter after having a lead.

 

[ralphiewvu]

If you weren't such a jealous little fuck, you might not be so bad.

Your deflection is hilarious. If you weren’t such a bandwagon homer, maybe ya’d be worth a damn.

 

[4down20]

Your deflection is hilarious. If you weren’t such a bandwagon homer, maybe ya’d be worth a damn.

You might be worth a damn....in the Big 12.

 

[ralphiewvu]

You might be worth a damn....in the Big 12.

You might not be a bandwagon if you didn’t jump on gumpville in 2013. Or if you actually have been to an Alabama game.

But thanks for trying to get off topic.

 

[4down20]

You might not be a bandwagon if you didn’t jump on gumpville in 2013. Or if you actually have been to an Alabama game.

But thanks for trying to get off topic.

You'd still be mad though.

 

[ralphiewvu]

You'd still be mad though.

Can’t be mad, especially tonight. Already watched “Its a Wonderful Life” and currently watching a “Christmas Carol” circus 1938.

Merry Christmas too all.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

They fired the previous coach midway through the season and he was interim head coach. He had been on the defensive side of the ball for 3 years prior as well as LB coach...which the "interim" tag should have clued you in on.

And ask Alabama fans why they talk about the offensive struggles against Clemson last year rather than the fact the defense was out there for 99 plays and gave up 21 points in the 4th quarter after having a lead.

I respect the fact you are trying everything to save face in this discussion, but you are truly grasping at straws. Singletary ‘built their defense’ as a LB coach now. And every year was searching for an OC when he was HC for two years. Keep trying, it is entertaining.

I will leave you with this:
4 years before Harbaugh 26-38
4 years with Harbaugh 44-19-1
3 years since Harbaugh 11-36

 

[4down20]

I respect the fact you are trying everything to save face in this discussion, but you are truly grasping at straws. Singletary ‘built their defense’ as a LB coach now. And every year was searching for an OC when he was HC for two years. Keep trying, it is entertaining.

I will leave you with this:
4 years before Harbaugh 26-38
4 years with Harbaugh 44-19-1
3 years since Harbaugh 11-36

And they still fired him.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

I know there's 35 pages of this, but I'll take a stab at what happened.

Colley Matrix (CM) had Alabama at #5 with the 43rd best schedule in the country. Wisky was #4 with the 36th best schedule. Alabama had 1 top 25 win. Wisky had 2 top 25 wins.

Anderson & Hester (A&H) had similar results. Wisky was ranked #4 overall with the 47th best schedule in the country and 3 wins in the top 25. Alabama had ranked #7 overall with the 51st best schedule in the country, and only 1 top 25 win.

If we used "earned" ranking models, Wisconsin was a better team in 2017 than Alabama. Better schedule, better wins, and so forth. Also, Wisky lost by 6 points against an 11-2 team ranked 6th by both CM and A&H. Alabama lost by 12 points against a 10-3 team ranked 12th and 14th.

But when we go to predictive models, classic example would be Jeff Sagarin's formula, we see a radically different kind of result. Sagarin had Alabama as the #1 seed and Wisconsin as the #7 seed. The reason why is people BELIEVE that Alabama would beat Wisconsin on a neutral field with both teams at full strength. And quite frankly, it's obvious why humans would see it that way:

- Alabama was ranked #1, #2, and #1 for the last three seasons.
- Alex Hornibrook is viewed as a liability due to his INT issues. I think Hurts is seen as a more reliable QB. See his comeback performance against Miss State.
- If we look at points per game vs. points allowed per game, Alabama would have the advantage. Offensively, Alabama averaged 39.1 points per game, Wisky had 33.8 points per game. That is +5.3 for Alabama. Defensively, Alabama permitted 11.5 points per game vs. Wisky with 13.2 points per game. That is +1.7 for Alabama. This makes it +7 for Alabama.

Seeing as how the committee was asked to put in the "four best teams" over "the four most deserving" or "the four teams with the best resume", it's pretty clear that they picked Alabama because they win the "eye test".

Reputation and perception of strength won over resume here. If you asked people, would you rather have Saint Nick as your coach or Paul Chryst, most people would say Saban.

Personally, I am not a fan of these "predictive model" mindset. We should judge teams based on what was produced on the field and not worry about what Vegas says. Unless, you find a guy who accurately predicts every single game, I am sticking with earned models. These predictive models, didn't see Utah beating Bama coming or UCF beating Baylor. The predictive models favored Notre Dame over Miami, and look at what happened there.

And quite frankly, until they finish the regular season with at least 2 losses, Alabama will continue to sneak into the final four, regardless of their SOS.

All season long, pollsters and the committee distrusted Wisconsin, even though they won every game by at least 9 points and took down 9-3 Northwestern (which is not worse than beating LSU). The reason is simple: They don't trust Wisky.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

And they still fired him.

Yep, and the 49ers learned the front office is only as good as the head coach. While Trent Baalke went from ‘hot shot GM’ to fired in two years.

Keep grasping at straws though — this is fun.

 

[4down20]

Yep, and the 49ers learned the front office is only as good as the head coach. While Trent Baalke went from ‘hot shot GM’ to fired in two years.

Keep grasping at straws though — this is fun.

It's funny how you say the 49'rs suck because Harbaugh left, but yet at the same time you give Harbaugh all the credit for Shaw and everything Shaw does is a product of Harbaugh.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

It's funny how you say the 49'rs suck because Harbaugh left, but yet at the same time you give Harbaugh all the credit for Shaw and everything Shaw does is a product of Harbaugh.

Another swing and miss, but I like that you keep trying. College and NFL are two different games. Saban would have been a great NFL coach if recruiting was part of the job.

Also, never said Shaw’s success is only because of Harbaugh. I said Harbaugh built the program from the ground floor (I.e. 42 point underdog to USC is how bad they were). Shaw stepped into a program completely turned around and has kept it going.

Not terribly difficult to understand — one took over a team who was 1-11 the prior year, the other took over a team that was 12-1.

 

[TheRobotDevil]

But more losses, one of which by over 30 points.

So replace ND with Mercer?No more Friday night games on the road or home and homes.And avoid the conference CCG..... @Myles is right time to expand the play offs to 6 or 8

 

[4down20]

College and NFL are two different games.

Which one is baseball?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Which one is baseball?

Not tough to figure out — the NFL is the one where the great SEC coach had a losing record. It is the place that actually has a level playing field, which I find funny, since Saban always talks about this, yet ran away from coaching on it? Go figure.

 

[4down20]

Not tough to figure out — the NFL is the one where the great SEC coach had a losing record. It is the place that actually has a level playing field, which I find funny, since Saban always talks about this, yet ran away from coaching on it? Go figure.

Oh, so college football is the one where Harbaugh hasn't won shit.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Oh, so college football is the one where Harbaugh hasn't won shit.

Other than the BCS bowl and Coach of the year — yeah.

Have you figured out the difference in CFB and NFL yet? Or do you need a further explanation?