Who is your current MVP? Pre-Week 15.

[Fountain City Blues]

Agree on Buffalo but not on KC. The Eagles match up very well vs KC. Eagles likely + 3 vs Buffalo and -1.5 to -2 vs KC.

Vegas thinks otherwise. But that's *very* debatable on if that ought to be the case. The market derived lines have consistently implied KC would be favored by like a point against the Eagles. As you can see in the numbers I posted, the AFC HFA race cannibalizes the SB odds for now. Unless Cincy gets HFA, it's very possible the AFC HFA Holder jumps the Eagles as favorites. And I wouldn't be that surprised if Cincy's stock rose enough to put them past the Eagles either if they won out + others lose.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Vegas thinks otherwise. But that's *very* debatable on if that ought to be the case. The market derived lines have consistently implied KC would be favored by like a point against the Eagles.

Eagles are the Colts D but with better personnel. And the Chiefs defense really lacks talented play makers. If the choices are Bills Bengals or Chiefs I’m ecstatic if the Eagles draw the Chiefs among that group. It’s the best matchup and that’s before even injecting Andy Reid in a big game into the equation.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Eagles are the Colts D but with better personnel. And the Chiefs defense really lacks talented play makers. If the choices are Bills Bengals or Chiefs I’m ecstatic if the Eagles draw the Chiefs among that group. It’s the best matchup and that’s before even injecting Andy Reid in a big game into the equation.

I am not sure why I should feel remotely threatened by a Colts level D. The Chiefs have ripped up several better defenses mercilessly- including the 49ers- pretty effortlessly. The biggest threat to the Chiefs offense is themselves. Namely fumbling it away. Mahomes really is that good.

Now, the Chiefs mediocre defense and... not so special teams.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I am not sure why I should feel remotely threatened by a Colts level D. The Chiefs have ripped up several better defenses mercilessly- including the 49ers- pretty effortlessly. The biggest threat to the Chiefs offense is themselves. Namely fumbling it away.

Now, the Chiefs mediocre defense and... not so special teams.

My bad. I should have provided more context. I’m talking about the scheme that gets played. The Eagles have personnel where they can handle all of the marginal pieces and give extra attention to Kelce. The Colts scheme gave the Chiefs some issues. Additionally, if the Eagles need to score 35-42 points to get it done, they can win a matchup that way vs the Chiefs as well. The Eagles can win games a bunch of different ways. They’ve been really adept at taking advantage of team’s warts and the Chiefs have more to exploit than the Bills or Chiefs. I’ve really come around on your Mahomes argument for MVP. He and Kelce really are the only thing elite about that squad. It’s impressive that they’re a top 5 team considering the lack of talent they put on the field.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

My bad. I should have provided more context. I’m talking about the scheme that gets played. The Eagles have personnel where they can handle all of the marginal pieces and give extra attention to Kelce. The Colts scheme gave the Chiefs some issues. Additionally, if the Eagles need to score 35-42 points to get it done, they can win a matchup that way vs the Chiefs as well. The Eagles can win games a bunch of different ways. They’ve been really adept at taking advantage of team’s warts and the Chiefs have more to exploit than the Bills or Chiefs. I’ve really come around on your Mahomes argument for MVP. He and Kelce really are the only thing elite about that squad. It’s impressive that they’re a top 5 team considering the lack of talent they put on the field.

I would have to ask what specific part of the scheme about the Colts caused this? Mahomes is... literally elite against every single coverage there is. Mahomes had an EPA/Play of .250 in that game. Hurts, an MVP candidate, has an EPA/Play of .235, for perspective. While the Chiefs don't have a true #1 unless you count Kelce, they do have volume between JuJu, Toney, MVS, and Hardman. Even at their worst, the best outcome in most circumstances a team can hope for is a 1 score victory given how much the offense controls its own outcomes. They are capable (namely JuJu, Moore, and Pacheco) of turning it over, and despite only allowing 3.8 Yards Per Play to the Texans, it became a 1 score game. Even when they turn it over they very plausibly push 30 points. The past two weeks are probably as *bad* as the Chiefs offense can be.

The Chiefs have more to exploit, but their floor is very high any given week compared to the rest of the NFL only because Mahomes exists - and their not so good outcomes involve 1 score games where anything happens. Not sure you can say that about the Bills, Eagles, or Bengals offense, good as they are.

Their peak? Well, night night you need 45-50 points to beat them regardless of personnel gaps- see the 49ers. Certainly the Eagles can beat them and I spent a lot of words to justify the Chiefs having somewhere between a 45-55% chance of beating the Eagles on a neutral field, but Mahomes is such a freak it would be difficult to drive the stake through their hearts.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Speaking of Andy Reid... I fail to see how his pass-happy nature is anything but an asset given his QB is a freak. There's an argument Hurts is the clear MVP if Mahomes doesn't exist.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Mahomes is... literally elite against every single coverage there is.

How is Mahomes stats in 3 games against the Bengals coverage, including this last game where the Bengals didn't even have their #1 CB? They were covering with Eli freaking Apple, Hilton and a couple rookies. I agree Mahomes is elite, but you act like the Bengals are no threat what so ever even after beating the Chiefs 3 times in 12 months.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think Burrow took a step back this weekend. Looks like it is a run away with Hurts and Mahomes now.

Not sure I agree with this - maybe from a yards perspective, sure - but that really wasn't his fault entirely. While the offense did struggle in the 1st half, nearly all of the Bengals drives started in TB territory in the 2nd half. Hard to throw for a lot of yards when you are constantly playing on a 40 yard field...he completed nearly 70% of his passes and 4-1 TD/INT isn't bad. The INT was tipped as well, so not like it was a bad decision that was picked off....

That being said, I didn't think Burrow had a legit shot to win the MVP - but, like several others in the same boat, he deserves to be in that discussion.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

How is Mahomes stats in 3 games against the Bengals coverage, including this last game where the Bengals didn't even have their #1 CB? They were covering with Eli freaking Apple, Hilton and a couple rookies. I agree Mahomes is elite, but you act like the Bengals are no threat what so ever even after beating the Chiefs 3 times in 12 months.

#1, this is an MVP thread. That is gonna create Mahomes-centric argumerts. I'm pretty aware of how precarious their situation is against the Bills and Bengals and think they need HFA to have anything more than a 50% chance to beat either team. Maaaaaybe Vegas likes the Chiefs still on the road in Cincy, but I kinda doubt it. All the main AFC contenders do (KC, BUF, CIN) as they don't really stand out from each other per se. Same rough tier, imo. Vegas would rank them BUF, KC, CIN, but there's no reason to think there'd be a multi-score spread or something that could happen like if the Jets/Jags rolled into Buffalo/KC/Cincy for a playoff game.

I would point out losses are also banked and the Chiefs have a pretty *easy* schedule. The Bills have to play Cincy and Cincy still has to keep 1 eye open on the Ravens, who they already lost to. It's the whole only 3 games back, but with multiple teams ahead of you and a team right on your tail from baseball thing. It's less about Cincy not being very good, it's about how likely they are to get HFA compared to KC and Buff.

I also think a sample of 3 games isn't overly impressive against anyone. The Colts don't have a secret sauce either. Each loss has been by 3 points as well if we're obsessing over QB wins and losses. I am not really into H2H in MVP arguments. Especially when there is a big personnel gulf. Which would favor Mahomes if anything.

Since you asked:

Week 17: .350
AFCCG:. -06
2022: .350

.350 EPA/Play would usually win MVP if protracted over a full year. Don't think the Bengals have any special sauce here other than Burrow consistently scores against the Chiefs defense more consistently than maybe anyone has. Regardless of pace. Which checks out, the Chiefs aren't very good if Mahomes doesn't exist, and frankly never would be since 2018. They just aren't as talented as people think. Joe Burrow is very good.

Mahomes, isn't just elite, he's quite a bit better than every other QB. He's transcendent and even at his worst, he's better than most all QB's ever do. Here's a basic comparison. The delta between Mahomes and other QB's is like Burrow to Dalton. It's just not a very serious comparison. And why an MVP argument for Hurts is low-key insane based on anything analytical.

Mahomes Adjusted EPA/Play: .330 (1st)
Burrow Adjusted EPA/Play: .206 (7th)

EPA/Play gap: .124 EPA/Play

Which... is roughly the gap between Joe Burrow and Marcus Mariota.

Career Adjusted EPA/Play:

Mahomes: 308.
Burrow: .179

 

[fightinfunbags]

#1, this is an MVP thread. That is gonna create Mahomes-centric argumerts. I'm pretty aware of how precarious their situation is against the Bills and Bengals and think they need HFA to have anything more than a 50% chance to beat either team. Maaaaaybe Vegas likes the Chiefs still on the road in Cincy, but I kinda doubt it. All the main AFC contenders do (KC, BUF, CIN) as they don't really stand out from each other per se. Same rough tier, imo. Vegas would rank them BUF, KC, CIN, but there's no reason to think there'd be a multi-score spread or something that could happen like if the Jets/Jags rolled into Buffalo/KC/Cincy for a playoff game.

I would point out losses are also banked and the Chiefs have a pretty *easy* schedule. The Bills have to play Cincy and Cincy still has to keep 1 eye open on the Ravens, who they already lost to. It's the whole only 3 games back, but with multiple teams ahead of you and a team right on your tail from baseball thing. It's less about Cincy not being very good, it's about how likely they are to get HFA compared to KC and Buff.

I also think a sample of 3 games isn't overly impressive against anyone. The Colts don't have a secret sauce either. Each loss has been by 3 points as well if we're obsessing over QB wins and losses.

Since you asked:

Week 17: .350
AFCCG:. -06
2022: .350

.350 EPA/Play would usually win MVP if protracted over a full year. Don't think the Bengals have any special sauce here other than Burrow consistently scores against the Chiefs defense anymore than anyone does. Regardless of pace. Which checks out, the Chiefs aren't very good if Mahomes doesn't exist, and frankly never would be since 2018. They just aren't as talented as people think.

Mahomes, isn't just elite, he's quite a bit better than every other QB. He's transcendent and even at his worst, he's better than most all QB's ever do. Here's a basic comparison. The delta between Mahomes and other QB's is like Burrow to Dalton. It's just not a very serious comparison. And why an MVP argument for Hurts is low-key insane based on anything analytical.

Mahomes Adjusted EPA/Play: .330 (1st)
Burrow Adjusted EPA/Play: .206 (7th)

EPA/Play gap: .124 EPA/Play

Which... is roughly the gap between Joe Burrow and Marcus Mariota.

The only thing that is insane is the fact that you lean so heavily upon a single stat. I apologize. Don’t take this personally because what I’m about to say isn’t an attack on you personally. This push for analytics has altered sports and the way we perceive sports. It’s over the top ridiculous. It’s absolutely ruined the game of baseball. It’s become a way for pencil necked geeks and nerds to make themselves a part of the nation’s sports culture. An award like MVP should be decided based on a holistic approach in weighing many different factors. That’s not what you and others who lean so heavily upon stats do. There is no “perfect” stat. There should never be an instance in which a single stat is propped up to be the end all be all. This is also seen in the NBA. They’ve created these new metrics that are absolutely insane. They have some stat called VORP wherein if Nikola Jokic has 8 assists it scores higher on that metric than if Chris Paul has a game with 15 assists. Why? Because the stat says that assists from a center are uncommon relative to a guard so it inordinately weighs 1 Jokic assist as being on par with 2 Chris Paul assists. It’s just tantamount to a broken analysis. I’m hoping that in the real world you aren’t as stringent in making assessments as what you’ve put on display in this MVP conversation. I’m hoping that this is just you being a homer.

I’m primarily reacting to you calling Hurts winning MVP “insane” when he’s the QB on the best regular season team in football and for decades this has been the criteria for winning MVPs. When a competitor fits the bill for what has decided an award for that long it’s absolutely not “insane” for that person to win that award now.

And I’ll close with what I said weeks ago. Mahomes can have it. It absolutely fits the trend. The Chiefs don’t have the looks of a Super Bowl winner. The trend will continue that the winner of the regular season MVP doesn’t win the Super Bowl.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The only thing that is insane is the fact that you lean so heavily upon a single stat. I apologize. Don’t take this personally because what I’m about to say isn’t an attack on you personally. This push for analytics has altered sports and the way we perceive sports. It’s over the top ridiculous. It’s absolutely ruined the game of baseball. It’s become a way for pencil necked geeks and nerds to make themselves a part of the nation’s sports culture. An award like MVP should be decided based on a holistic approach in weighing many different factors. That’s not what you and others who lean so heavily upon stats do. There is no “perfect” stat. There should never be an instance in which a single stat is propped up to be the end all be all. This is also seen in the NBA. They’ve created these new metrics that are absolutely insane. They have some stat called VORP wherein if Nikola Jokic has 8 assists it scores higher on that metric than if Chris Paul has a game with 15 assists. Why? Because the stat says that assists from a center are uncommon relative to a guard so it inordinately weighs 1 Jokic assist as being on par with one Chris Paul assist. It’s just tantamount to a broken analysis. I’m hoping that in the real world you aren’t as stringent in making assessments as what you’ve put on display in this MVP conversation. I’m hoping that this is just you being a homer.

I’m primarily reacting to you calling Hurts winning MVP “insane” when he’s the QB on the best regular season team in football and for decades this has been the criteria for winning MVPs. When a competitor fits the bill for what has decided an award for that long it’s absolutely not “insane” for that person to win that award now.

And I’ll close with what I said weeks ago. Mahomes can have it. It absolutely fits the trend. The Chiefs don’t have the looks of a Super Bowl winner. The trend will continue that the winner of the regular season MVP doesn’t win the Super Bowl.

You can create a similar finding with DYAR, as well. I prefer to use EPA Play because you can type in RBSDM.com and confirm what I am saying as factual.

Mahomes leads in total EPA, DVOA, PFF grade, amongst other metrics. The only thing that's kinda close is PFF WAR between Mahomes and Burrow, and Mahomes comes ahead and the other stats are so slanted in Mahomes favor it's pretty much cherrypicking to make the argument for Burrow at that point.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The only thing that is insane is the fact that you lean so heavily upon a single stat. I apologize. Don’t take this personally because what I’m about to say isn’t an attack on you personally. This push for analytics has altered sports and the way we perceive sports. It’s over the top ridiculous. It’s absolutely ruined the game of baseball. It’s become a way for pencil necked geeks and nerds to make themselves a part of the nation’s sports culture. An award like MVP should be decided based on a holistic approach in weighing many different factors. That’s not what you and others who lean so heavily upon stats do. There is no “perfect” stat. There should never be an instance in which a single stat is propped up to be the end all be all. This is also seen in the NBA. They’ve created these new metrics that are absolutely insane. They have some stat called VORP wherein if Nikola Jokic has 8 assists it scores higher on that metric than if Chris Paul has a game with 15 assists. Why? Because the stat says that assists from a center are uncommon relative to a guard so it inordinately weighs 1 Jokic assist as being on par with one Chris Paul assist. It’s just tantamount to a broken analysis. I’m hoping that in the real world you aren’t as stringent in making assessments as what you’ve put on display in this MVP conversation. I’m hoping that this is just you being a homer.

I’m primarily reacting to you calling Hurts winning MVP “insane” when he’s the QB on the best regular season team in football and for decades this has been the criteria for winning MVPs. When a competitor fits the bill for what has decided an award for that long it’s absolutely not “insane” for that person to win that award now.

And I’ll close with what I said weeks ago. Mahomes can have it. It absolutely fits the trend. The Chiefs don’t have the looks of a Super Bowl winner. The trend will continue that the winner of the regular season MVP doesn’t win the Super Bowl.

It's roughly comparable to the 2019 outfit that won the SB. Both defenses rank 19th in EPA/Allowed when normalizing takeaway totals, which are historically random. It's probably my #1 beef with defensive DVOA going back to 2016 for grossly overrating the Chiefs shitty defense even back then. Now that DVOA has a paywall, I use it less. Just more top teams that can give KC problems than there were before. Easier for their roster failings to be exposed. And as much as I hype up Mahomes in this thread, they do ask him to be perfect essentially.


I would concede that oldheads are closer to your point of view than I'd like to admit. And this is kinda reflected by Mahomes not being an overwhelming favorite to win the MVP. This does have Embiid/Jokic argument energy, now that I think of it.

 

[fightinfunbags]

You can create a similar finding with DYAR, as well. I prefer to use EPA Play because you can type in RBSDM.com and confirm what I am saying as factual.

Mahomes leads in total EPA, DVOA, PFF grade, amongst other metrics. The only thing that's kinda close is PFF WAR between Mahomes and Burrow, and Mahomes comes ahead and the other stats are so slanted in Mahomes favor it's pretty much cherrypicking to make the argument for Burrow at that point.

Oy vey. PFF is the crutch for casuals. These are guys that can’t actually get jobs coaching the game who “grade” plays without any idea of what was called, what if any audibles were made, what a player’s responsibility was on a given play, etc…

Proud of you though on doubling down on nonsense. At least you stick to your guns.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Oy vey. PFF is the crutch for casuals. These are guys that can’t actually get jobs coaching the game who “grade” plays without any idea of what was called, what if any audibles were made, what a player’s responsibility was on a given play, etc…

Proud of you though on doubling down on nonsense. At least you stick to your guns.

Sure, I used it as part of several different stats/grades though is the thing. Not as a crutch. They have some funny ass QB grades every now and then.

 

[Cincyfan78]

So, honest question because I don't know - if his EPA play is so high, how come he can't score enough against the Bengals? I don't know the formula, or how it works, but bottom line is leading your team to enough points to win - and that has to factor in there somewhere. 1 game is an anomaly, 2 games is a trend, and 3 is a pattern (or however you want to put it).

All of that being said - Mahomes is a very good QB and is having a season worthy of an MVP. Burrow is having a really good season, but a crappy start likely pushes him off the platform. Still in the conversation as maybe a darkhorse if he blows up these last few weeks, and Mahomes is just "average" - but in general, I have zero issue with Mahomes being the top guy mentioned for MVP (or even Hurts for that matter).

Burrow has had a very good year, but not a "great" one by MVP standards, though he is on pace to throw for more yards and TD's than last year, despite his YPA is slightly down as this offense has evolved enough to not be so boom/bust in the passing game. Taking what the defense is giving them to keep drives alive.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

So, honest question because I don't know - if his EPA play is so high, how come he can't score enough against the Bengals? I don't know the formula, or how it works, but bottom line is leading your team to enough points to win - and that has to factor in there somewhere. 1 game is an anomaly, 2 games is a trend, and 3 is a pattern (or however you want to put it).

All of that being said - Mahomes is a very good QB and is having a season worthy of an MVP. Burrow is having a really good season, but a crappy start likely pushes him off the platform. Still in the conversation as maybe a darkhorse if he blows up these last few weeks, and Mahomes is just "average" - but in general, I have zero issue with Mahomes being the top guy mentioned for MVP (or even Hurts for that matter).

Burrow has had a very good year, but not a "great" one by MVP standards, though he is on pace to throw for more yards and TD's than last year, despite his YPA is slightly down as this offense has evolved enough to not be so boom/bust in the passing game. Taking what the defense is giving them to keep drives alive.

Same reason Tom Brady outscores Peyton Manning's defense.

I don't think it's super complicated.

 

[fightinfunbags]

So, honest question because I don't know - if his EPA play is so high, how come he can't score enough against the Bengals? I don't know the formula, or how it works, but bottom line is leading your team to enough points to win - and that has to factor in there somewhere. 1 game is an anomaly, 2 games is a trend, and 3 is a pattern (or however you want to put it).

All of that being said - Mahomes is a very good QB and is having a season worthy of an MVP. Burrow is having a really good season, but a crappy start likely pushes him off the platform. Still in the conversation as maybe a darkhorse if he blows up these last few weeks, and Mahomes is just "average" - but in general, I have zero issue with Mahomes being the top guy mentioned for MVP (or even Hurts for that matter).

Burrow has had a very good year, but not a "great" one by MVP standards, though he is on pace to throw for more yards and TD's than last year, despite his YPA is slightly down as this offense has evolved enough to not be so boom/bust in the passing game. Taking what the defense is giving them to keep drives alive.

And that’s in part my point about stats. The evolution of the Bengals offense comes in Burrow making the most of spotty OL play and utilizing check downs and timing routes that allow for the ball to come out quickly. Obviously this decision will grade lower than a 30 yard sideline 50/50 ball that Jamar Chase or Tee Higgins wins over a CB. But which decision leads to winning football which is what MVP is supposed to be all about? I would argue the check down and the timing route are more consistent with complimentary football which is winning football.

 

[PDay8810]

I don't think it's super complicated.

LOL...depends on who's telling the story.

Me? I still think we're all just homers talking football. Some have a higher opinion of themselves than others, and we all poke sticks.

 

[Cincyfan78]

And that’s in part my point about stats. The evolution of the Bengals offense comes in Burrow making the most of spotty OL play and utilizing check downs and timing routes that allow for the ball to come out quickly. Obviously this decision will grade lower than a 30 yard sideline 50/50 ball that Jamar Chase or Tee Higgins wins over a CB. But which decision leads to winning football which is what MVP is supposed to be all about? I would argue the check down and the timing route are more consistent with complimentary football which is winning football.

And that was my point with the formula - Mahomes is getting a ton of yards from 20 to 20, but then KC has had to settle for a lot of FG's and missed 4th downs. Bengals have their issues, no doubt, on offense - but in these games, Burrow is leading to more TD's or more FG's, and at the end of the day - the Bengals defense does enough in the redzone to prevent TD's from the other team, and Bengals offense moves the ball enough to score more points...And as I said - I don't know enough on this particular formula to really know where the biggest discrepancy is when facing the Bengals directly....

All of that being said, at the end of the day...when just looking at these games in a vacuum - Burrow would likely win the MVP - but, over the course of this season, as I've said - no qualms with Mahomes/Hurts being the top 2 horses.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

And that’s in part my point about stats. The evolution of the Bengals offense comes in Burrow making the most of spotty OL play and utilizing check downs and timing routes that allow for the ball to come out quickly. Obviously this decision will grade lower than a 30 yard sideline 50/50 ball that Jamar Chase or Tee Higgins wins over a CB. But which decision leads to winning football which is what MVP is supposed to be all about? I would argue the check down and the timing route are more consistent with complimentary football which is winning football.

I think I would highly question anyone who doesn't think Mahomes has been as good as anyone at just that, especially on 3rd down. It's not all pirouettes and no-look passes downfield. Speaking of 3rd down, would anyone take a QB over Mahomes on 3rd and long? I doubt it.

I can't help but feel some folks are doing the Jordan/Lebron thing where they seek an excuse to give literally anyone else MVP when the answer is kinda just right there. Doesn't mean there aren't other great players. But it's hard to argue Mahomes is anything but the MVP after Hurts went down (even if for a couple weeks)