Who is your current MVP? Pre-Week 15.

[fightinfunbags]

I think I would highly question anyone who doesn't think Mahomes hasn't been as good as anyone at just that, especially on 3rd down. It's not all pirouettes and no-look passes downfield. Speaking of 3rd down, would anyone take a QB over Mahomes on 3rd and long? I doubt it.

I can't help but feel some folks are doing the Jordan/Lebron thing where they seek an excuse to give literally anyone else MVP when the answer is kinda just right there. Doesn't mean there aren't other great players. But it's hard to argue Mahomes is anything but the MVP after Hurts went down (even if for a couple weeks)

When you dismiss the best QB on the best team argument I agree.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

When you dismiss the best QB on the best team argument I agree.

I don't think Hurts is the best QB this year and have cited a lot of stats either directly stating this or implying this. It's less that I am shitting on Hurts so much as Mahomes exists. Hurts is way more impressive to me than the Wentz MVP campaign was.

I also don't think the Chiefs are the best team right now. I'd - personally - say it's either the Bills or Eagles assuming good health for both QB's. I know Vegas really likes the Chiefs, but if you can't get home with 4 unless Chris Jones is a DPOTY candidate on a given play at DT, dunno for sure how this defense is stopping the top offenses in the NFL.

 

[molsaniceman]

last year rodgers was 5th in EPA but won the MVP
Herbert was 1st why didnt he win?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

last year rodgers was 5th in EPA but won the MVP
Herbert was 1st why didnt he win?

Rodgers led the NFL in EPA/Play.

Brady had volume stats. I would have given it to Brady with Rodgers' chickenshit regarding the Vaccine, but Rodgers was the most efficient QB that year.

Mahomes has volume and efficiency stats in his favor. There's not much of a statistical debate as of today.

Rodgers vs Brady offered efficiency vs volume. Efficiency won. The last QB to lead in EPA/Play to *not* win MVP was Carson Palmer in 2015 as he lost to Cam Newton.

The only question is what kind of efficiency do voters value more. Something more analytical like EPA/Play, or TD:INT ratio more.

IOW: How many MVP voters still think it's 2002?

 

[CrashDavisSports]

#1, this is an MVP thread. That is gonna create Mahomes-centric argumerts. I'm pretty aware of how precarious their situation is against the Bills and Bengals and think they need HFA to have anything more than a 50% chance to beat either team. Maaaaaybe Vegas likes the Chiefs still on the road in Cincy, but I kinda doubt it. All the main AFC contenders do (KC, BUF, CIN) as they don't really stand out from each other per se. Same rough tier, imo. Vegas would rank them BUF, KC, CIN, but there's no reason to think there'd be a multi-score spread or something that could happen like if the Jets/Jags rolled into Buffalo/KC/Cincy for a playoff game.

I would point out losses are also banked and the Chiefs have a pretty *easy* schedule. The Bills have to play Cincy and Cincy still has to keep 1 eye open on the Ravens, who they already lost to. It's the whole only 3 games back, but with multiple teams ahead of you and a team right on your tail from baseball thing. It's less about Cincy not being very good, it's about how likely they are to get HFA compared to KC and Buff.

I also think a sample of 3 games isn't overly impressive against anyone. The Colts don't have a secret sauce either. Each loss has been by 3 points as well if we're obsessing over QB wins and losses. I am not really into H2H in MVP arguments. Especially when there is a big personnel gulf. Which would favor Mahomes if anything.

Since you asked:

Week 17: .350
AFCCG:. -06
2022: .350

.350 EPA/Play would usually win MVP if protracted over a full year. Don't think the Bengals have any special sauce here other than Burrow consistently scores against the Chiefs defense more consistently than maybe anyone has. Regardless of pace. Which checks out, the Chiefs aren't very good if Mahomes doesn't exist, and frankly never would be since 2018. They just aren't as talented as people think. Joe Burrow is very good.

Mahomes, isn't just elite, he's quite a bit better than every other QB. He's transcendent and even at his worst, he's better than most all QB's ever do. Here's a basic comparison. The delta between Mahomes and other QB's is like Burrow to Dalton. It's just not a very serious comparison. And why an MVP argument for Hurts is low-key insane based on anything analytical.

Mahomes Adjusted EPA/Play: .330 (1st)
Burrow Adjusted EPA/Play: .206 (7th)

EPA/Play gap: .124 EPA/Play

Which... is roughly the gap between Joe Burrow and Marcus Mariota.

Career Adjusted EPA/Play:

Mahomes: 308.
Burrow: .179

So can we just give Mahomes the MVP for the next 10 years and just avoid this conversation? Doesn't appear anyone else has a real shot with how good Mahomes is in EPA.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I still dont understand what EPA is even measuring. I use the eye test. Which means Mahomes will still win it.

The only way he wont win it is if he gets into Peyton Manning syndrome. Where everyone looks for a reason not to give it to him & to someone else?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

So can we just give Mahomes the MVP for the next 10 years and just avoid this conversation? Doesn't appear anyone else has a real shot with how good Mahomes is in EPA.

With how predictive EPA/Play is of both future play and MVP awards, yeah, there's a distinct possibility Mahomes stacks up a lot of MVP's in his career unless he falls off, and falls off a lot. That's just the plain truth as we move more and more away from the old model of evaluating QB's. He's just that good.

There was a time Felix Hernandez would never have won Cy Young. But he did with like 12 wins.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Adjusted EPA/Play (regular season only) of every AP MVP Going back to 2010:

2010: .280
2011: .413
2012: Adrian Peterson (Peyton Manning had a .316 Adjusted EPA/Play)
2013:. .361
2014: .356
2015: .179 (Cam Newton beat out Palmer who had a .323 Adjusted EPA/Play)
2016: .339
2017: .261
2018: .380
2019: .344
2020: .370
2021: .265
2022: TBD; Mahomes currently leading QB's at .330

Mahomes Career Adjusted EPA/Play: .308


Other notable QB's this season:

Tagovailoa: .276
Hurts: .248
Allen: .240
Prescott: .213
Burrow: .206
Smith: .149

 

[molsaniceman]

With how predictive EPA/Play is of both future play and MVP awards, yeah, there's a distinct possibility Mahomes stacks up a lot of MVP's in his career unless he falls off, and falls off a lot. That's just the plain truth as we move more and more away from the old model of evaluating QB's. He's just that good.

There was a time Felix Hernandez would never have won Cy Young. But he did with like 12 wins.

and yet he has only 1 in 4 yrs
hes the MVP but EPA is not the only stat that gets him there

 

[Fountain City Blues]

and yet he has only 1 in 4 yrs
hes the MVP but EPA is not the only stat that gets him there

Mahomes has only led in EPA/Play in the regular season one year- the year he won MVP. You're just making my argument look better, boss.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Mahomes has only led in EPA/Play in the regular season one year- the year he won MVP. You're just making my argument look better, boss.

Cant argue EPA because I am not understanding it.
But if you remove Mahomes from this equation the rest of your stats is an argument against it.

Mahomes Career Adjusted EPA/Play: .308


Other notable QB's this season:

Tagovailoa: .276
Hurts: .248
Allen: .240
Prescott: .213
Burrow: .206
Smith: .149

You would lose this argument trying to claim Tua over Hurts.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Cant argue EPA because I am not understanding it.
But if you remove Mahomes from this equation the rest of your stats is an argument against it.

Mahomes Career Adjusted EPA/Play: .308


Other notable QB's this season:

Tagovailoa: .276
Hurts: .248
Allen: .240
Prescott: .213
Burrow: .206
Smith: .149

You would lose this argument trying to claim Tua over Hurts.

I would not and I would bet he continues to drop. Tua was over .400 a couple weeks ago and we had the typical trolls in the media arguing his candidacy such as Emmanuel Acho while ignoring a lot of context and historical data.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I would not and I would bet he continues to drop. Tua was over .400 a couple weeks ago and we had the typical trolls in the media arguing his candidacy such as Emmanuel Acho while ignoring a lot of context and historical data.

but these are current #'s correct? (if so)
The season ends today you would claim Tua over Hurts & you would probably be the only one. So that would make something definitely flawed in this EPA thing.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

but these are current #'s correct? (if so)
The season ends today you would claim Tua over Hurts & you would probably be the only one. So that would make something definitely flawed in this EPA thing.

No. We have eyeballs and error bars. Tua effectively dodged some of the best defenses by getting hurt when he did, including a game he wasn't performing all that well, and I suspect wouldn't regardless of health against a good Bengals defense.

We've seen him get thumped against the 49ers, Bills, and Chargers now as far as the MVP is concerned. Tua's appearance in an MVP race is probably a 1 year wonder thing, imo. Stock down, and out. Give me Burrow, Allen, and Hurts all day over Tua.

 

[Tainthappening]

Have to say did not know much about EPA/Play, so followed this thread some and read some about it elsewhere.

Stat appears to have some merit for moving the ball up and down the field per my present understanding. But also based on my understanding, do not think can be a one all stat to crown a MVP. From my understanding, does not really consider turnovers or red zone efficiency and punching the ball in for TD.

My eyeball and different stats tell me presently MVP race is 2 horse race... Mahomes and Hurts, both have good arguments. Hurts injury may take him out of the argument if Mahomes can have a big day.

Philly is much better in the red zone getting TDs (#1 73% to #6 66%)... KC I assume from the EPA stat is better at getting chunk plays to move up and down the field more quickly. Philly offensively I would say is more balanced... would assume this is why their red zone efficiency is much better than KC.

If I was given the option of either having Mahomes or Hurts as QB, I would easily select Mahomes. Although Hurts is more dynamic IMO... the career of running QB in NFL is shorter.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Have to say did not know much about EPA/Play, so followed this thread some and read some about it elsewhere.

Stat appears to have some merit for moving the ball up and down the field per my present understanding. But also based on my understanding, do not think can be a one all stat to crown a MVP. From my understanding, does not really consider turnovers or red zone efficiency and punching the ball in for TD.

My eyeball and different stats tell me presently MVP race is 2 horse race... Mahomes and Hurts, both have good arguments. Hurts injury may take him out of the argument if Mahomes can have a big day.

Philly is much better in the red zone getting TDs (#1 73% to #6 66%)... KC I assume from the EPA stat is better at getting chunk plays to move up and down the field more quickly. Philly offensively I would say is more balanced... would assume this is why their red zone efficiency is much better than KC.

If I was given the option of either having Mahomes or Hurts as QB, I would easily select Mahomes. Although Hurts is more dynamic IMO... the career of running QB in NFL is shorter.

To be fair though, the Philly offense > KC offense at every position outside of QB, TE and maybe 3 WR. I’m not sure how Quez Watkins stacks up against whomever KC cals their 3rd WR. KC’s WR Corp seems to be a whole bunch of number 2 and number 3 options as it is.

 

[Tainthappening]

To be fair though, the Philly offense > KC offense at every position outside of QB, TE and maybe 3 WR.

Cannot say I agree

Philly and KC have the 2 best offensive lines in NFL... both have 3 pro bowl selections. If looking to pass the ball give me KC OL... looking to run the ball give me Philly. I would take young Creed Humpheries over older Jason Kelce in either situation... guy is a monster in the middle. Wanted the Packers to draft him.. but they took Meyers over Humpheries.

- WRs definitely take Philly thanks to AJ Brown
- TE definitely take the future HOF Kelce
- RBs a wash for me... Philly RBs helped a lot with Hurts being the QB... defenses have to be much more alert who is running with the ball.
- I like Pachecho, put him in Philly backfield and I do not see much of a difference than Sanders
- Actually prefer McKinnon and Edwards to Gainwell and Scott... McKinnon is actually very good receiving RB... he has more receptions than all Philly RBs combined

 

[fightinfunbags]

Cannot say I agree

Philly and KC have the 2 best offensive lines in NFL... both have 3 pro bowl selections. If looking to pass the ball give me KC OL... looking to run the ball give me Philly. I would take young Creed Humpheries over older Jason Kelce in either situation... guy is a monster in the middle. Wanted the Packers to draft him.. but they took Meyers over Humpheries.

- WRs definitely take Philly thanks to AJ Brown
- TE definitely take the future HOF Kelce
- RBs a wash for me... Philly RBs helped a lot with Hurts being the QB... defenses have to be much more alert who is running with the ball.
- I like Pachecho, put him in Philly backfield and I do not see much of a difference than Sanders
- Actually prefer McKinnon and Edwards to Gainwell and Scott... McKinnon is actually very good receiving RB... he has more receptions than all Philly RBs combined

Agree to disagree. I take the Philly OL over the KC OL all day. I don’t use Pro Bowl designations to influence my thinking. As I noted earlier in this thread, the people determining these things have no idea how to evaluate line play. Run block, pass block, give me the Eagles OL all day. The proof is in the pudding. The Chiefs run game is pedestrian and generally a product of people playing 2 high and 5 in the box against Mahomes and the pass game. That’s a recipe for a top 5 rush offense and it hasn’t happened. The RBs as pass catchers are a product of Mahomes as well.

 

[Tainthappening]

Agree to disagree. I take the Philly OL over the KC OL all day. I don’t use Pro Bowl designations to influence my thinking. As I noted earlier in this thread, the people determining these things have no idea how to evaluate line play. Run block, pass block, give me the Eagles OL all day. The proof is in the pudding. The Chiefs run game is pedestrian and generally a product of people playing 2 high and 5 in the box against Mahomes and the pass game. That’s a recipe for a top 5 rush offense and it hasn’t happened. The RBs as pass catchers are a product of Mahomes as well.

You can check metrics as well... KC grades out pass blocking, #1... Philly #7.

Of course KC run game helped by their passing... just like Philly pass game helped by their strong run game.

Teams are #1 and #2 in scoring... difference of 4 points presently, they are both getting it done, just a little differently.

 

[fightinfunbags]

You can check metrics as well... KC grades out pass blocking, #1... Philly #7.

Of course KC run game helped by their passing... just like Philly pass game helped by their strong run game.

Teams are #1 and #2 in scoring... difference of 4 points presently, they are both getting it done, just a little differently.

Are you citing PFF? I have a problem with these outlets. They don’t know the protection that was called. They don’t know who is in charge of changing the protection due to the look the defense gives. Pass protection leans heavily on the role of TEs and RBs and that wouldn’t go into their metric. For individual lineman, they don’t know who has what responsibility. They’re taking best guesses. In fact, it wasn’t until the last 2 years or so that PFF actually was able to gain access to the All 22.

On this point we agree: these are two of the best offenses in the NFL and they have two different DNA’s so to speak for how they get the job done.