What is Panda worth?

[xxERICSMITHXX]

I would sign him 5 years 8m,12m,16,16,16 and trade him during year 3 for prospects When we have a new 3B ready to go.Go ahead and hammer me for that but I am not enamored with his production.He is impatient at the plate he strikes out or pops up the majority of time he has RiSP.Most of his HRs are solo shots.Still sketchy at 3B.I would rather put him back at C and move Posey to 3B.

Where exactly are you getting this shiny, brand new, impact 3B from?


I hate to break it to you, but most of the home runs on this team are solo shots. Thats because the line up is full of out machines instead of hitters.

 

[mistgl]

I would sign him 5 years 8m,12m,16,16,16 and trade him during year 3 for prospects When we have a new 3B ready to go.Go ahead and hammer me for that but I am not enamored with his production.He is impatient at the plate he strikes out or pops up the majority of time he has RiSP.Most of his HRs are solo shots.Still sketchy at 3B.I would rather put him back at C and move Posey to 3B.

First off, that is way too much. When you buy out a players arb years, you don't give them their FA value. You give them guaranteed millions in return for taking less than they may or may not make in arb. The deal you proposed is complete insanity, 5/68mil? There is no precedent for such a buyout. Hell Zimmerman only got 5/45 when the Nats bought out a huge chunk of his FA years.

When the Rays bought Longoria out he got 6/17.5

Panda will get his arb years bought at 5/20 or somewhere around that.

 

[tzill]

First off, that is way too much. When you buy out a players arb years, you don't give them their FA value. You give them guaranteed millions in return for taking less than they may or may not make in arb. The deal you proposed is complete insanity, 5/68mil? There is no precedent for such a buyout. Hell Zimmerman only got 5/45 when the Nats bought out a huge chunk of his FA years.

When the Rays bought Longoria out he got 6/17.5

Panda will get his arb years bought at 5/20 or somewhere around that.

No, you don't. But if you had read my OP, you'd see that Pablo is a $20MM player on the FA market. Using the general consensus 40/60/80 rule on arb years, he'll likely earn 8/12/16 or 3/36.

Longoria was locked up before he even hit the majors, IIRC. Not the same case at all. 5/68 sounds about right to me.

I'll be you $100 right now Panda bets more than $4MM a year. YOUR post is insanity.

 

[the_broom]

No, you don't. But if you had read my OP, you'd see that Pablo is a $20MM player on the FA market. Using the general consensus 40/60/80 rule on arb years, he'll likely earn 8/12/16 or 3/36.

Longoria was locked up before he even hit the majors, IIRC. Not the same case at all. 5/68 sounds about right to me.

I'll be you $100 right now Panda bets more than $4MM a year. YOUR post is insanity.

The answer is somewhere between....I think he gets closer to a 5/30 to a 5/35 deal....

I love the Panda...but he is not a $20mm dollar player....not yet.

 

[tzill]

The answer is somewhere between....I think he gets closer to a 5/30 to a 5/35 deal....

I love the Panda...but he is not a $20mm dollar player....not yet.

He produces like a $20MM player, but I agree that given his arb status, he isn't one yet. No way his agent advises him to take a 5/30 or 5/35 deal.

I'm guessing 3/30.

 

[SF11704]

His current deal calls for a $374,000 salary this season. The extension calls for a $1.5 million signing bonus and salaries of $1 million next year, $5 million in 2008, $7.5 million in 2009, $10 million in 2010, $14 million in 2011 and $15 million in 2012. There is a $1 million buyout if the Mets do not exercise a $16 million option for the 2013.


This what David Wright signed for in 2006. 55M over 6 years. That was 5 years ago. Panda is in a similar situation at the moment but it's 5-6 years later. I'm thinking 3/30 as an initial offer. 3/36M isn't out of the question

 

[tzill]

His current deal calls for a $374,000 salary this season. The extension calls for a $1.5 million signing bonus and salaries of $1 million next year, $5 million in 2008, $7.5 million in 2009, $10 million in 2010, $14 million in 2011 and $15 million in 2012. There is a $1 million buyout if the Mets do not exercise a $16 million option for the 2013.


This what David Wright signed for in 2006. 55M over 6 years. That was 5 years ago. Panda is in a similar situation at the moment but it's 5-6 years later. I'm thinking 3/30 as an initial offer. 3/36M isn't out of the question

+1...anybody who thinks we're getting Panda on a multiyear deal at $6MM per is waaaaay off base.

 

[sfsportsfan]

i dont see how pablo is a 20 mill a year player. maybe in a couple years, but as it stands he's never hit 30 bombs in a year, never reached 100 rbis in a year. in fact, his 162 game average for his career is 22/85. career 303/352/489 is boosted dramatically by his 2009 season. he's young, he plays good D, but he also is a risk to put taco bell out of business again.

 

[SF11704]

SEASON TEAM GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 NYM 69 263 41 77 17 1 14 40 14 40 6 0 .293 .332 .525 .857
2005 NYM 160 575 99 176 42 1 27 102 72 113 17 7 .306 .388 .523 .911
2006 NYM 154 582 96 181 40 5 26 116 66 113 20 5 .311 .381 .531 .912


2009 SF 153 572 79 189 44 5 25 90 52 83 5 5 .330 .387 .556 .943
2010 SF 152 563 61 151 34 3 13 63 47 81 3 2 .268 .323 .409 .732
2011 SF 98 67 47 109 21 1 18 55 28 56 2 2 .297 .341 .507 .848


Listed are Wrights stats before the 55M offer. Very similar to Panda's three years even with the 2010 fluke (if it was) thrown in. If Wright can pull 55M after three years with these stats I thibnk that Panda can do the same but at today's market value. Wright is projected at 16M in the 5th year of his contract. If the Giants were to offer Panda a 5 year contract I think we'd be in the 20M arena by the time the 5th year rolled around.

 

[tzill]

i dont see how pablo is a 20 mill a year player. maybe in a couple years, but as it stands he's never hit 30 bombs in a year, never reached 100 rbis in a year. in fact, his 162 game average for his career is 22/85. career 303/352/489 is boosted dramatically by his 2009 season. he's young, he plays good D, but he also is a risk to put taco bell out of business again.

Take a look at this:

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Position Players) - Beyond the Box Score

Pretty good primer on WAR. Pablo very much IS a $20MM player.

 

[msgkings322]

i dont see how pablo is a 20 mill a year player. maybe in a couple years, but as it stands he's never hit 30 bombs in a year, never reached 100 rbis in a year. in fact, his 162 game average for his career is 22/85. career 303/352/489 is boosted dramatically by his 2009 season. he's young, he plays good D, but he also is a risk to put taco bell out of business again.

All those numbers get adjusted for the ballpark factor when the agent and the FO are negotiating. But I tend to agree using a simple $/WAR metric isn't the whole story and thus $20mil per seems high. But it shouldn't be downplayed how good his stats look compared to others playing 3B.

How many better hitters are there in baseball at the position? Longoria (when healthy), A-Rod (when healthy), Reynolds (on AZ), Youkilis...not any others I can think of.

 

[tzill]

All those numbers get adjusted for the ballpark factor when the agent and the FO are negotiating. But I tend to agree using a simple $/WAR metric isn't the whole story and thus $20mil per seems high. But it shouldn't be downplayed how good his stats look compared to others playing 3B.

How many better hitters are there in baseball at the position? Longoria (when healthy), A-Rod (when healthy), Reynolds (on AZ), Youkilis...not any others I can think of.

Put another way: if he were a free agent at the end of the year, you don't think there would be a team offering him 5/$100?

 

[BeerMe]

Beltre got 6 years/96 mil, 80 mil guaranteed. 6th year can be voided if he fails to reach 1200 combined ABs in 2015 and 2016. His WAR was 6.1 last year and as high as 10.1 when with LA. I know injuries were a concern with him but I can't see Pablo making more than him at this point in his career.

 

[mistgl]

No, you don't. But if you had read my OP, you'd see that Pablo is a $20MM player on the FA market. Using the general consensus 40/60/80 rule on arb years, he'll likely earn 8/12/16 or 3/36.

Longoria was locked up before he even hit the majors, IIRC. Not the same case at all. 5/68 sounds about right to me.

I'll be you $100 right now Panda bets more than $4MM a year. YOUR post is insanity.

My estimate was on the was on the conservative side, but at least it was realistic. Panda has had one flat out successful season, one fat fuck fail year, and one promising rise from the ashes year.

The issue isn't what he's worth or the arb model. It's what he will actually get. When issuing a buyout, you don't say "this is what you would have made, here you go" You say "this is whats possible based on what you have done, but that's not going to happen" In return for taking less, said player gets guaranteed millions and financial security from injury.

FYI, Votto's buyout, coming off an MVP season + 3 better years than the Panda has ever had, was 3/38. I repeat, Sandovals' buyout will be for 3/20 something million.

So now I counter your claim of me being insane, with you being super insane.

 

[tzill]

Beltre got 6 years/96 mil, 80 mil guaranteed. 6th year can be voided if he fails to reach 1200 combined ABs in 2015 and 2016. His WAR was 6.1 last year and as high as 10.1 when with LA. I know injuries were a concern with him but I can't see Pablo making more than him at this point in his career.

Beltre is an interesting example. He was a complete FA when he signed with Texas, so he got his market value. Pablo is entering his first arb year, and is three years away from a similar situation. Pablo won't/shouldn't make as much.

 

[Hysteria]

Ok, same question: how much for 2012?

8 mil. If they gave Ross 6 mil, Sandoval is certainly worth 8.

 

[gp956]

 

[msgkings322]

Agreed, but if he keeps the posts this vanilla I have no problem with it.

Still, the desperation is enormous, and a little sad.

 

[mistgl]

Agreed, but if he keeps the posts this vanilla I have no problem with it.

Still, the desperation is enormous, and a little sad.

In really twisted, fucked up kind of way, I think he likes you guys.

 

[msgkings322]

In really twisted, fucked up kind if way, I think he likes you guys.

Yeah. It's off-putting.