What is Panda worth?

[tzill]

Pablo Sandoval hits arbitration for the first time this winter. Given his willingness to get in great shape and play through several injuries, the Giants might be looking to sign him to a multiyear deal. His WAR for the last few years:

2009 -- 4.8 WAR in 153 games
2010 -- 0.5 WAR in 152 games
2011 -- 4.1 WAR in 97 games (projects to 4.9 WAR)

in 2011, 1.0 WAR is worth approximately $4.75MM. Conservatively, I'm assuming Pablo will generate 4.5 WAR over his arb years, which he should be able to do easily if healthy. That's worth about $21MM a year on the FA market. The general rule of thumb is that a player gets 40% of his FA worth in his first arb year, 60% in arb2, and 80% in arb3.

For Panda, that conservatively yields: $8M, $12.5M, $17M.

Question: how much and for how long do you sign Pablo?

My thought: 2 years/$18M or 5 years/$60M

Thoughts?

 

[BeerMe]

Hey tzill, thanks for the chat.

I'm on board with signing Pablo to that 5 yr deal. I think he plays great defense and will continue hitting for a great average for many years. My question to you is can we put a clause in the contract to void it if he goes over a certain weight or body fat %?

 

[CameronFrye]

Hey tzill, thanks for the chat.

I'm on board with signing Pablo to that 5 yr deal. I think he plays great defense and will continue hitting for a great average for many years. My question to you is can we put a clause in the contract to void it if he goes over a certain weight or body fat %?

No. MLB rules do not permit that kind of clause. They do allow the vague "personal conduct clause" to be added, but I think that any major league team would have a hard time arguing that a player's inability to control his weight violates that clause.

 

[BeerMe]

Thanks Cam. I think the Pablo had enough pride to not let his weight slip so I guess thats not a big deal

 

[calsnowskier]

Thanks Cam. I think the Pablo had enough pride to not let his weight slip so I guess thats not a big deal

The weight, although an issue he will be dealing with his whole life, was blown out of control due to other life-issues he was dealing with last year.

I would be OK with signing him up long term, but I would PREFER to wait one year and let him prove that '10 was a fluke by putting up back-to-back good years. That may end up costing the Giants too much, though.

 

[SFGRTB]

No. MLB rules do not permit that kind of clause. They do allow the vague "personal conduct clause" to be added, but I think that any major league team would have a hard time arguing that a player's inability to control his weight violates that clause.

But they could reward him for keeping it down couldn't they?

Not that it matters much, I don't think it will ever be a big deal.

 

[gp956]

Pablo Sandoval hits arbitration for the first time this winter. Given his willingness to get in great shape and play through several injuries, the Giants might be looking to sign him to a multiyear deal. His WAR for the last few years:

2009 -- 4.8 WAR in 153 games
2010 -- 0.5 WAR in 152 games
2011 -- 4.1 WAR in 97 games (projects to 4.9 WAR)

in 2011, 1.0 WAR is worth approximately $4.75MM. Conservatively, I'm assuming Pablo will generate 4.5 WAR over his arb years, which he should be able to do easily if healthy. That's worth about $21MM a year on the FA market. The general rule of thumb is that a player gets 40% of his FA worth in his first arb year, 60% in arb2, and 80% in arb3.

For Panda, that conservatively yields: $8M, $12.5M, $17M.

Question: how much and for how long do you sign Pablo?

My thought: 2 years/$18M or 5 years/$60M

Thoughts?

I'd go for the two year deal. I might tack on a club controlled third year option in the 12-15M range, which, If he performs in year's one and two, can be bought out with a new three to four year deal.

 

[sfsportsfan]

The weight, although an issue he will be dealing with his whole life, was blown out of control due to other life-issues he was dealing with last year.

I would be OK with signing him up long term, but I would PREFER to wait one year and let him prove that '10 was a fluke by putting up back-to-back good years. That may end up costing the Giants too much, though.

this.

 

[tzill]

The weight, although an issue he will be dealing with his whole life, was blown out of control due to other life-issues he was dealing with last year.

I would be OK with signing him up long term, but I would PREFER to wait one year and let him prove that '10 was a fluke by putting up back-to-back good years. That may end up costing the Giants too much, though.

Ok, that said: how much do you offer him for 2012? His value is about $8MM.

 

[tzill]

I'd go for the two year deal. I might tack on a club controlled third year option in the 12-15M range, which, If he performs in year's one and two, can be bought out with a new three to four year deal.

That's an excellent idea....and just might be the route Sabes takes.

 

[tzill]

this.

Ok, same question: how much for 2012?

 

[SF11704]

The weight, although an issue he will be dealing with his whole life, was blown out of control due to other life-issues he was dealing with last year.

I would be OK with signing him up long term, but I would PREFER to wait one year and let him prove that '10 was a fluke by putting up back-to-back good years. That may end up costing the Giants too much, though.

I also agree with waiting another year before extending a long term offer. If I remember correctly GP put up some graphs that indicated Panda was swinging at the same stuff in 2009 and 2010. The only difference was that he wasn't squaring to the pitch in 2010. To me that is a direct reflection of his weight problem. I'm still leery that a long term contract will put him into a very relaxed state of mind and this could lead to some weight issues again. I'd like to see a two year contract for 18M.

 

[tzill]

I also agree with waiting another year before extending a long term offer. If I remember correctly GP put up some graphs that indicated Panda was swinging at the same stuff in 2009 and 2010. The only difference was that he wasn't squaring to the pitch in 2010. To me that is a direct reflection of his weight problem. I'm still leery that a long term contract will put him into a very relaxed state of mind and this could lead to some weight issues again. I'd like to see a two year contract for 18M.

I'm confused...would you sign him to a one or a two year deal?

 

[SF11704]

I'd go for two at 18M. I wouldn't go for the 5yr at 60M. In today's world I just don't see to many 1 year contracts for players with Panda's talent. Most seem to want long term deals (5-7 years). I'm still not sure about his commitment to maintain his weight at this point.

I didn't get the impression we were talking about 1 year contracts which I think would be an interesting concept.

 

[SFGRTB]

Normally, I'd say they'd sign him to a 1 year deal to cover arbitration. But in this case, I would think management is under some pressure to retain their hitters. I know, we've got him for 3 years at least via arbitration but in a time where we need hitters, it may be in their best interests to lock him up on a 5-6 year deal.

While gp's idea is ideal and realistic, at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to lock him up on a nice long deal. He is their guy, along with Posey.

 

[SF11704]

I guess the 2010 year still scares me. I still think it was attributed to his weight gain at that time. I guess the weight issue could be tied to his personal problems but he doesn't have a track record to go by. I'd feel much more at ease if he had back-to-back solid years and proved that 2010 was a fluke.

 

[msgkings322]

I guess the 2010 year still scares me. I still think it was attributed to his weight gain at that time. I guess the weight issue could be tied to his personal problems but he doesn't have a track record to go by. I'd feel much more at ease if he had back-to-back solid years and proved that 2010 was a fluke.

Another casualty of Huff fucking us this year...we're all extra skeptical of good production...

 

[tzill]

I guess the 2010 year still scares me. I still think it was attributed to his weight gain at that time. I guess the weight issue could be tied to his personal problems but he doesn't have a track record to go by. I'd feel much more at ease if he had back-to-back solid years and proved that 2010 was a fluke.

Everyone would feel more at ease. If he'd have had a 2010 similar to 2009 and 2011, he'd be extremely expensive to lock up for 5 years...he'd top $100MM.

 

[TKellion]

I would sign him 5 years 8m,12m,16,16,16 and trade him during year 3 for prospects When we have a new 3B ready to go.Go ahead and hammer me for that but I am not enamored with his production.He is impatient at the plate he strikes out or pops up the majority of time he has RiSP.Most of his HRs are solo shots.Still sketchy at 3B.I would rather put him back at C and move Posey to 3B.

 

[sfsportsfan]

Ok, same question: how much for 2012?

8-10 sounds fair to me.