We need a big bat: discuss

[calsnowskier]

To be fair, NO ONE thought Timmeh was an over-pay at the time.

Zeets was a marketing move, not a player move.

 

[calsnowskier]

If Belt + Crick + Williamson were enough I'd do that yesterday

I think he meant Crick + Blackburn + Williamson + Belt/Craw.

I would still make that trade as well, though (with Belt, not Craw).

 

[msgkings322]

To be fair, NO ONE thought Timmeh was an over-pay at the time.

Zeets was a marketing move, not a player move.

I'm just saying we have overpaid guys and won WS titles. We can do so again. We're not the As.

 

[msgkings322]

I think he meant Crick + Blackburn + Williamson + Belt/Craw.

I would still make that trade as well, though (with Belt, not Craw).

Yep, me too. Crick and Blackburn and Williamson might all be solid MLers in 3 years, or all might be busts.
Stanton is an Allstar and young. He's what you hope Williamson turns into, only it's here, now.

 

[Band of Brothers]

The Giants have almost no chance at Stanton. It won't happen. Sabean will not trade his farm system for one player even though it's a good player and the Giants don't have enough good players to get Stanton anyway. It's time to move on from all this Stanton talk. Other teams have far more to offer Miami then the Giants .

If the Giants can find a good power hitter their best shot is the international market. Spend the money.

 

[calsnowskier]

We are all in agreement, SYM.

These are all trades that WE would make. Miami would not even pick up the phone on these deals. We would have to include Bum to get Stanton, and that aint happening.

Past that, there is no deal at all that Miami would accept.

 

[msgkings322]

The Giants have almost no chance at Stanton. It won't happen. Sabean will not trade his farm system for one player even though it's a good player and the Giants don't have enough good players to get Stanton anyway. It's time to move on from all this Stanton talk. Other teams have far more to offer Miami then the Giants .

If the Giants can find a good power hitter their best shot is the international market. Spend the money.

This might be indeed true. But as has been mentioned Choo would be perfectly fine as an upgrade in the outfield, we can spend the money there on a known quantity. It's not strictly HRs we need, just a legit productive bat.

Also, I'm not opposed to getting the next Cespedes or Puig but that seems a crapshoot compared to overpaying established bats.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think we should consider the SP a little more, Cain and Bum are the only 2 guys under contract, Volgy has a modest option that will likely be picked up but then it's filled with unknowns. I don't think any of us have a clue what Tim's market is like, then if Gaudin keeps this pace up he is due to make a lot more than his $750,000 salary this year.

Yes, we are losing Zito's and Lincecum's $20m contracts, but guys are due for raises. Posey gets a big raise, Pagan gets a raise, Bum, Pablo, Romo all get raises. Lopez is a FA and will likely get a raise.

I know this team has money, they have increased payroll substantially every year since 2008 but I'm sure they want to slow that trend. Just a few things to consider.

 

[tzill]

Actually he's more like a 3-4 WAR player. In Cleveland he was 5-6 WAR

You gotta overpay a guy or two to keep up with the Dogs. It's not our money. I'm not saying turn into the Dodgers but as has been discussed many times including in this thread, if you don't have hitters you develop yourself you are going to have to overpay a couple to play here. It's time to do that, in this window we have.

We overpaid pitchers for years (Zito, Timmy), let's do the hitters now.

His WAR the last three years: 1.6, 3.4, 2.7 (projects to 3.8)...let's call him a 3.0 WAR player, who has two years left in his prime. He hasn't seen 5-6 WAR territory in years. That's a $15MM/year guy. IMO 60/4 is an overpay as the back end of that deal for a 34 yo guy who depends on his legs isn't likely to deliver value. n.b. Pagan, Angel. He's on pace to deliver 0.0 WAR this year for the tidy sum of $8.2MM and he's a year older than Choo. In other words, there's going to be a year on even a 60/4 contract for Choo that will see very little or no value.

Unfortunately, some team is going to give him more.

If I follow your logic it's "we screwed up overpaying pitchers, so now let's make the same mistake with hitters?"

 

[tzill]

We are all in agreement, SYM.

These are all trades that WE would make. Miami would not even pick up the phone on these deals. We would have to include Bum to get Stanton, and that aint happening.

Past that, there is no deal at all that Miami would accept.

 

[msgkings322]

His WAR the last three years: 1.6, 3.4, 2.7 (projects to 3.8)...let's call him a 3.0 WAR player, who has two years left in his prime. He hasn't seen 5-6 WAR territory in years. That's a $15MM/year guy. IMO 60/4 is an overpay as the back end of that deal for a 34 yo guy who depends on his legs isn't likely to deliver value. n.b. Pagan, Angel. He's on pace to deliver 0.0 WAR this year for the tidy sum of $8.2MM and he's a year older than Choo. In other words, there's going to be a year on even a 60/4 contract for Choo that will see very little or no value.

Unfortunately, some team is going to give him more.

If I follow your logic it's "we screwed up overpaying pitchers, so now let's make the same mistake with hitters?"

My logic is more 'overpaying clearly doesn't kill a team, and is in fact necessary to realistically compete'
Especially with our present circumstance. The logic is:
1. We just don't have enough offense to really compete, and we need a legit left fielder
2. We don't have one available by trade or in the minors
3. Conclusion: we have to get a FA, and to get a FA bat we have to overpay

If you disagree with 1 or 2 that's fine, that's just where I'm at

 

[calsnowskier]

tz, if we don't overpay SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE, we will not compete.

You don't want to get Choo? Fine. I understand your reasoning, and your arguments are sound. What other choices do we have?

 

[calsnowskier]

Also, just for the record, if we do nto have a protected pick, I do not advocate signing Choo.

 

[msgkings322]

tz, if we don't overpay SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE, we will not compete.

You don't want to get Choo? Fine. I understand your reasoning, and your arguments are sound. What other choices do we have?

EXACTLY my take. See the post above this one.

 

[tzill]

My logic is more 'overpaying clearly doesn't kill a team, and is in fact necessary to realistically compete'
Especially with our present circumstance. The logic is:
1. We just don't have enough offense to really compete, and we need a legit left fielder
2. We don't have one available by trade or in the minors
3. Conclusion: we have to get a FA, and to get a FA bat we have to overpay

If you disagree with 1 or 2 that's fine, that's just where I'm at

Can't see the logic here. Here's the 2010 team, salaries above $5MM, WAR returned, over (under) pay

Zito 18.5MM -- 1.5, 11.0MM
RoRo 13.6 -- 0.3, 11.1MM
Rent 10.0 -- 0.4, 8.0MM
Timmy 9.0 -- 3.7, (9.5)MM
DeRo 6.0 -- -0.8, 10.0MM
Franchez 6.0 -- 1.6, (2.0)MM

So, in 2010, we overpayed Zeets, RoRo, Rent, and DeRo a cumulative $41.1MM relative to their production. Explain to me how spending that $41.1MM was "necessary to compete?" If we had not spent it at all, our payroll would've been $55MM instead of $96MM and we'd have won approximately one less game than we did. If we had spent half of that and gotten average return, we'd have won the division by 3 games, all else being equal (which of course it never is, butterfly effect, etc. etc.).

My point is that overspending is overspending and it's money you can't use elsewhere (other FAs, international talent, scouting). It's bad business. It may not kill you, but it's NEVER a good idea or "necessary."

As for solving the LF quandary, we may indeed pick up a FA. But an overpay for Choo (or anyone else for that matter) is dumb.

 

[tzill]

tz, if we don't overpay SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE, we will not compete.

You don't want to get Choo? Fine. I understand your reasoning, and your arguments are sound. What other choices do we have?

Don't agree, see previous post.

It's a flawed premise.

 

[msgkings322]

Can't see the logic here. Here's the 2010 team, salaries above $5MM, WAR returned, over (under) pay

Zito 18.5MM -- 1.5, 11.0MM
RoRo 13.6 -- 0.3, 11.1MM
Rent 10.0 -- 0.4, 8.0MM
Timmy 9.0 -- 3.7, (9.5)MM
DeRo 6.0 -- -0.8, 10.0MM
Franchez 6.0 -- 1.6, (2.0)MM

So, in 2010, we overpayed Zeets, RoRo, Rent, and DeRo a cumulative $41.1MM relative to their production. Explain to me how spending that $41.1MM was "necessary to compete?" If we had not spent it at all, our payroll would've been $55MM instead of $96MM and we'd have won approximately one less game than we did. If we had spent half of that and gotten average return, we'd have won the division by 3 games, all else being equal (which of course it never is, butterfly effect, etc. etc.).

My point is that overspending is overspending and it's money you can't use elsewhere (other FAs, international talent, scouting). It's bad business. It may not kill you, but it's NEVER a good idea or "necessary."

As for solving the LF quandary, we may indeed pick up a FA. But an overpay for Choo (or anyone else for that matter) is dumb.

Man, I hear you and I agree mostly. But the bolded is where your logic runs aground. If we have to pick up a FA (I think so, you I can't tell), we will HAVE TO overpay, because that's how it works these days, especially for us.

If you think we have enough without changing anything from this team we see play every day, save adding Pagan back...I just can't agree. And I also can't agree with the idea that Peggs/RK/whomever will do it.

So that's why I'm where I'm at: I think we need someone from outside the org, and to get that someone we will have to overpay in trade or overpay a FA.

The other choice is to me just praying for a miracle, which usually doesn't happen, and hope that we can make it work in 2015. I just feel when you have a window you gotta keep hammering it until you don't.

Now, the flipside (and you alluded to it), is if you avoid overpaying you can maintain at least a decent team for years and years, because you are always marshalling your resources well and so you always have good prospects in the pipeline, I get that. But if you are one piece away, which I think we are, dammit you gotta just get that piece. Money you save not overpaying a FA to get 'other FAs'? You're gonna have to overpay them too...that's where the sport is. The good ones get locked up young like Posey, Longoria, etc, so the FA pool each year is thin. Add in AT&T and that's what we deal with.

 

[BigDDude]

I am a little suprised that nobody has mentioned going after Cano just yet. He would be the big bat the Giants would need, AND, would be able to fill the 2B slot, that someone earlier mentioned as a defensive liability.

Or, is this a thread only about trades, and not signings?

 

[msgkings322]

I am a little suprised that nobody has mentioned going after Cano just yet. He would be the big bat the Giants would need, AND, would be able to fill the 2B slot, that someone earlier mentioned as a defensive liability.

Or, is this a thread only about trades, and not signings?

I think it's because

1. We have a decent enough 2b already signed for next year, while LF is a total pile of suck

2. Overpaying CHoo is one thing, Cano will cost 2x that. We can stretch some but not like that.

Classic post from a Dodger fan though..."gee just go get the priciest FA out there! Problem solved!"

 

[BigDDude]

I think it's because

1. We have a decent enough 2b already signed for next year, while LF is a total pile of suck

2. Overpaying CHoo is one thing, Cano will cost 2x that. We can stretch some but not like that.

Classic post from a Dodger fan though..."gee just go get the priciest FA out there! Problem solved!"

Fair enough. Just trying to move the conversation along, and playing off somebodies not liking the current 2B defense.