WAY too quiet! ...are you all sleeping?

[TKOSpikes]

Wow. July 4th really does a number on you guys doesn't it...

TKO 2015 Sleepers

We all have various descriptions of what a sleeper is... I'm keeping it simple and using the "you should be able to get them late" approach.

QB - Teddy Bridgewater ...seemed to get pretty efficient as the season progressed and there's a pretty good player behind him this year. Wouldn't shock me to see 3500 yards with 22-8, along with 400 rushing and maybe a couple TD on the ground.

RB - Jonas Gray ...I know, the Belichick rule, but is it so crazy to think Blount smokes more blunts and Gray has a Corey Dillon type season? BB isn't holding a grudge anymore. Wakey wakey Gray.

RB - Shane Vereen ...the Giants defense isn't great, they play in lots of shootouts and are in a division where they need points. I see lots of action for Vereen and maybe he didn't reach his potential with the Pats, but I still think that potential is reachable. And I'm not sold on Williams as anything more than a plodder. Jennings is untrustable.

WR - Davante Adams ...I'm pretty convinced Adams will have a James Jones type season. No reason three Packers can't be in the top 20 at WR.

WR - Seantavius Jones ...many of you knew this was coming! The Saints lost something like 240 receptions this offseason. Colston keeps declining and Cooks is fine, but I see this kid emerging as a big option for Brees. They have another UFA from last year in Brandon Coleman (6'6), but I think he's a year behind in coordination for a big guy.

TE - Jace Amaro ...just seems to be left behind in ADP, maybe with the Gates suspension more people dig a little deeper and he starts to rise. Like I said before, literally anyone can be a top five TE, and that includes Amaro.

K - just kidding!

DST - Vikings. Zimmer is a defensive master mind. Took a 29th ranked D, to a 17th ranked in one season (or something like that), and I bet they're in the top ten for years to come.

Enjoy.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I like your QB sleeper, spot on!

 

[averagejoe]

We all have various descriptions of what a sleeper is... I'm keeping it simple and using the "you should be able to get them late" approach.

D/ST - may seem like a homer pick, but John Fox does have the magic touch with defenses. Carolina, Broncos, and now the Bears. (At least I'm hoping.)

 

[The Foot]

Loved this write up TKO great job!

 

[The Foot]

Love Jonas Grey and your Saints wr is an eye opener. I have bben very high on Cooks for that reason but you clued me into the fact there very well could be another wr from the saints to emerge and for the cost it could be tremendous value. Better hedge your bets and grab as many after cooks as you can.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

I can see Jonas having 3-4 games of awesome performances only to fall back behind Blount... Happens every year with that RB corps, just different names.

 

[TKOSpikes]

The day after my sleeper report, Payton comes out talking up Nick Toon. I don't buy it, in his final year of his contract and failed to make an impression when Colston was nowhere last year. Jones all the way!

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I am all on board the Sweaty Teddy Train this year.
He will be my QB2 in every league I can get him in.
I'll let others take their chances on Palmer, Flacco, Foles etc.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Holy crap! How didn't you guys demolish me for this dribble last year!

1 - 7 (and the one was a DST, so it doesn't even really count)

Let's try for some redemption....

2016 - sleepers and busts

QB: Matthew Stafford... quietly productive second half and a great September schedule.
QB: Cam Newton... everyone paying for last year's numbers and more importantly last year's positional separation will be disappointed.... still a top 8, but not worth the price.

RB: Melvin Gordon... a disappointing season has everyone staying away... for now. A good summer might improve his ADP, but lots of Woodhead eyes out there (for good reason, but he ain't repeating last year!)
RB: Jamaal Charles... I understand the value in the 2nd, I just won't comply.

WR: Sammy Coates... Big Ben to the BBC! The three B's just turned into the BBC! Coates will fill Marty's shoes nicely. Wheaton is not a problem and DHB is a straight liner.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins... I just don't see a repeat of that performance. Worst 1st round pick this year. Book it.

TE: Cameron Brate... ASJ gets all the attention, unfortunately this is football, not the combine and Brate will prove better.
TE: Julius Thomas... looks good, great fit, up and coming team... I just don't trust his durability.


Happy 4th weekend gentlemen!

 

[SteelersPride]

Holy crap! How didn't you guys demolish me for this dribble last year!

1 - 7 (and the one was a DST, so it doesn't even really count)

Let's try for some redemption....

2016 - sleepers and busts

QB: Matthew Stafford... quietly productive second half and a great September schedule.
QB: Cam Newton... everyone paying for last year's numbers and more importantly last year's positional separation will be disappointed.... still a top 8, but not worth the price.

RB: Melvin Gordon... a disappointing season has everyone staying away... for now. A good summer might improve his ADP, but lots of Woodhead eyes out there (for good reason, but he ain't repeating last year!)
RB: Jamaal Charles... I understand the value in the 2nd, I just won't comply.

WR: Sammy Coates... Big Ben to the BBC! The three B's just turned into the BBC! Coates will fill Marty's shoes nicely. Wheaton is not a problem and DHB is a straight liner.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins... I just don't see a repeat of that performance. Worst 1st round pick this year. Book it.

TE: Cameron Brate... ASJ gets all the attention, unfortunately this is football, not the combine and Brate will prove better.
TE: Julius Thomas... looks good, great fit, up and coming team... I just don't trust his durability.


Happy 4th weekend gentlemen!

why does everyone thing coates can play

 

[averagejoe]

why does everyone thing coates can play

Why do you think he can't? Would really like your hometown analysis?

 

[SteelersPride]

Why do you think he can't? Would really like your hometown analysis?

Truthfully very little buzz about him, theres always buzz, there was about AB, there was about Marty B, there was about Sanders......

Nothing but gotta work on routes and hands.

 

[TREFF]

Gosh, I must've missed this one while we were in Disneyland for the 4th last year. I surely would've razed you for Jonas friggin' Gray, probably TeddyB and Vareen too..but would've sailed ship with you on Adams and Jones through

I like all the picks you made this time except at QB, Cam is legit. If he can do what he did last year with Ginn and Olsen, and Dirty Mike and the boys, I can't see him failing to impress with Benji and a second year Funchess too.

And Stafford couldn't maintain relevancy with Calvin, can't see any scenario where he does better without him.

 

[broncosmitty]

Gosh, I must've missed this one while we were in Disneyland for the 4th last year. I surely would've razed you for Jonas friggin' Gray, probably TeddyB and Vareen too..but would've sailed ship with you on Adams and Jones through

I like all the picks you made this time except at QB, Cam is legit. If he can do what he did last year with Ginn and Olsen, and Dirty Mike and the boys, I can't see him failing to impress with Benji and a second year Funchess too.

And Stafford couldn't maintain relevancy with Calvin, can't see any scenario where he does better without him.

Staff was 5th in completion percentage last year. (67.2%). By far the best of his career. (Cam was 28th) Had 19 more TDs than Ints(2nd best ratio of his career) and was 8th in QB points.

He's going to be a much better QB in his years without CJ than he was with him, imo.

Lessening the impact of his errors will be key. No more #81 to chuck it deep to. But that works both ways.

Cam had a career high in carries and the most rushing TDs since his rookie year. (Also a career high in passing TDs)I see an increase in picks and a much higher injury risk if the play calling isn't different in Carolina. (Lowest yards per carry of his career last year. And rushing is what sets him apart from a fantasy scoring standpoint.). I like Cam, but he concerns me this year.

 

[TREFF]

Staff was 5th in completion percentage last year. (67.2%). By far the best of his career. (Cam was 28th) Had 19 more TDs than Ints(2nd best ratio of his career) and was 8th in QB points.

He's going to be a much better QB in his years without CJ than he was with him, imo.

Lessening the impact of his errors will be key. No more #81 to chuck it deep to. But that works both ways.

Cam had a career high in carries and the most rushing TDs since his rookie year. (Also a career high in passing TDs)I see an increase in picks and a much higher injury risk if the play calling isn't different in Carolina. (Lowest yards per carry of his career last year. And rushing is what sets him apart from a fantasy scoring standpoint.). I like Cam, but he concerns me this year.

Cam had never had great QB Passer peripheral stats, all but one year has been a great as far as fantasy is concerned #3, #4, #3, #17, and #1 finishes. .pretty hard to argue with. The career highs don't really worry me, he could regress to his career averages and still be a top 5 QB.
.

And Stafford had usually had some great numbers, but had never been a strong fantasy asset. Sure #8 sounds good but when only 1.2 points per week seperate #8 from #13 (12 team league, #13 shouldn't even be a starter) ..kinda hard to get excited about, especially given how often he's been put up there on the pedestal preseason, and has disappointed virtually every time.

Not sure what "standard " scoring system pro football reference.com uses, but they've got him being the 26th ranked QB as a rook, 40th (injured), 5th, 11th, 7th, 19th, and 9th last year, and had a HOF WR for no less than 13 games each and every season.

I can see the pro/con, pro side of not feeling the need to force the ball to Calvin, but that doesn't come close to outweighing the con of his presence on the field making every other route runner's job easier. Just can't see him doing any better, probably not even as good.

 

[broncosmitty]

I used numbers from Fantrax.

8, 14, 4, 8, 4 from 2015 to 2011 for Staff. (His worst fantasy season, 2014, being his only ProBowl appearance. And best record.). He missed too much time his first two season to even register.

1, 16, 5, 5, 5 for Cam. Staff out scoring Cam 3 out of 5 years. 1922 total for Staff. 1985 total for Cam. +63 Newton over five years. +93 for Cam in 2015 alone.

Id still take Cam ahead of him, but I'm expecting a drop from Newton in fantasy production this year as I mentioned. That style isn't sustainable imo.

 

[Stomp]

taff was 5th in completion percentage last year. (67.2%). By far the best of his career. (Cam was 28th) Had 19 more TDs than Ints(2nd best ratio of his career) and was 8th in QB points.

Also set an NFL record by being the first QB in NFL history to have a 60+ completion percentage in every game of a season

 

[Stomp]

I like Cam, but he concerns me this year.

Especially after how thin skinned he was the 2 weeks leading up to the Superbowl and after plus the fumble thing in the Superbowl both NFL defenders and reporters should smell blood in the water. Not touching Cam this year even if he drops in a draft.(Had Cam in several leagues last year though and was very happy with him)

 

[TREFF]

I used numbers from Fantrax.

8, 14, 4, 8, 4 from 2015 to 2011 for Staff. (His worst fantasy season, 2014, being his only ProBowl appearance. And best record.). He missed too much time his first two season to even register.

1, 16, 5, 5, 5 for Cam. Staff out scoring Cam 3 out of 5 years. 1922 total for Staff. 1985 total for Cam. +63 Newton over five years. +93 for Cam in 2015 alone.

Id still take Cam ahead of him, but I'm expecting a drop from Newton in fantasy production this year as I mentioned. That style isn't sustainable imo.

Interesting, In CBS, Yahoo, ESPN, ..basically anything I can think of but Fantrax's "standard" scoring, Stafford never outscored Cam..outside of 2014.
Must be something in how they scoring the rushing side of his game.

 

[ehb5]

I think Cam is definitely due for some regression but he's still the #1 QB in all formats. Stafford I'm not a big fan of but he'll probably be decent in fantasy.

Coates I don't get the hype with and Hopkins may regress a little but he's still a stud I wouldn't worry about him too much.

And I do like brate. I think asj is on the brink of being cut.