Trade deadline rumor/wishlist thread - 2015

[tzill]

Spitballing...

Belt and Beede

for

Howard and Hamels



I think that blows up the offense too much. We have a good thing going, and making a BIG trade like that is not a good idea. But your thoughts?

I can't see upsetting the apple cart with our homegrown infield. Now, Belt and Vogey for Howard and Hamels....

 

[calsnowskier]

Z to the Royals...

Royals are going all-in, going to the ATM and going all-in again.

 

[calsnowskier]

I can't see upsetting the apple cart with our homegrown infield. Now, Belt and Vogey for Howard and Hamels....

Phillies would laugh at that offer. Throw in Stratton and Mejia maybe?

Belt, Vogey, Stratton, Mejia

4

Howard, Hamels

 

[calsnowskier]

Chances A's get swept by the dogs? 85%

 

[MarcoPolo]

Spitballing...

Belt and Beede

for

Howard and Hamels

I *DO NOT WANT* Howard on our team. He is way too expensive, and way too fat, and way too old. I'd love to have '2008 Howard' or '2009 Howard', but that ship sailed long ago.

I'd actually rather the Gaints didn't trade for Hamels (at least not if it means losing Beede and Susac and more). Let the Phillies dream of getting a huge haul for him, and I hope that they are stuck with him again because they are asking too much.

 

[MarcoPolo]

PS: Belt had a higher OPS+ than Howard in 2012, 13, 14, and so far in 15. Lower # of HRs, yes, but higher OPS+. And much better defense.

 

[calsnowskier]

PS: Belt had a higher OPS+ than Howard in 2012, 13, 14, and so far in 15. Lower # of HRs, yes, but higher OPS+. And much better defense.

Nobody is saying we were winning the Belt/Howard portion of the trade. Belt is CLEARLY a better 1B than Howard at his point. And it really isnt that close.

 

[van_basten]

I *DO NOT WANT* Howard on our team. He is way too expensive, and way too fat, and way too old. I'd love to have '2008 Howard' or '2009 Howard', but that ship sailed long ago.

I'd actually rather the Gaints didn't trade for Hamels (at least not if it means losing Beede and Susac and more). Let the Phillies dream of getting a huge haul for him, and I hope that they are stuck with him again because they are asking too much.

If it takes Beede and Susac, I don't think Phillies are asking for too much. If I am the Phillies, I would not trade my Ace who is locked up in a reasonable contract for one good pitching prospect and an average major-league-ready young catcher. It's not like they need to dump Hamel's salary. They need pieces to rebuild.

I agree I would not touch Howard. This infield is the best thing going on with the Giants right now.

 

[tzill]

If it takes Beede and Susac, I don't think Phillies are asking for too much. If I am the Phillies, I would not trade my Ace who is locked up in a reasonable contract for one good pitching prospect and an average major-league-ready young catcher. It's not like they need to dump Hamel's salary. They need pieces to rebuild.

I agree I would not touch Howard. This infield is the best thing going on with the Giants right now.

Some fail here:
1. Is Hamel's contract "reasonable?" 24M a year for the next three years when Hamels will be 32, 33, and 34 yo. Plus a $6MM buy out. That's a minimum of $78MM. ERA+ over the last three years of 104/151/104. That's #3/ace/#3. Say he repeats that. He's overpriced, at least by ERA+ and he's not clearly an "ace."
2. The Suss is not an "average" ML catcher. He's 25 and has a career OPS+ of 113. Thats significantly above average for just an MLB hitter, much less a catcher. MLB average OPS+ for catchers is about 85. He's probably, offensively speaking, top 10 in MLB right now, and he's not hit his prime yet. ML catchers are an offensive wasteland. Further, dis him again and I will cut you.

Other than that, good post.

 

[van_basten]

Some fail here:
1. Is Hamel's contract "reasonable?" 24M a year for the next three years when Hamels will be 32, 33, and 34 yo. Plus a $6MM buy out. That's a minimum of $78MM. ERA+ over the last three years of 104/151/104. That's #3/ace/#3. Say he repeats that. He's overpriced, at least by ERA+ and he's not clearly an "ace."
2. The Suss is not an "average" ML catcher. He's 25 and has a career OPS+ of 113. Thats significantly above average for just an MLB hitter, much less a catcher. MLB average OPS+ for catchers is about 85. He's probably, offensively speaking, top 10 in MLB right now, and he's not hit his prime yet. ML catchers are an offensive wasteland. Further, dis him again and I will cut you.

Other than that, good post.

After this season, Cueto, Price and Greinke will ask for $25M-$30M per. If Jon Lester could get a $155M contract last till age of 37, you bet Cueto, Price and Greinke will get more than that in terms of dollar and years. Hamel's contract lasting through age of 34 with $78M owed is probably as low risk as you can get in this market.

 

[tzill]

After this season, Cueto, Price and Greinke will ask for $25M-$30M per. If Jon Lester could get a $155M contract last till age of 37, you bet Cueto, Price and Greinke will get more than that in terms of dollar and years. Hamel's contract lasting through age of 34 with $78M owed is probably as low risk as you can get in this market.

Not my definition of "reasonable." Yours maybe, but not mine. If the market is going crazy over SP and overpaying for a couple of good years followed by 3 or so of albatross, then you stay out of the market. I don't think Hamels contract is awful, but I wouldn't give up Beede AND Susac to test that. Also, you're lumping Hamels in with Greinke, Price, and Cueto...I don't think he's in that class.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not my definition of "reasonable." Yours maybe, but not mine. If the market is going crazy over SP and overpaying for a couple of good years followed by 3 or so of albatross, then you stay out of the market. I don't think Hamels contract is awful, but I wouldn't give up Beede AND Susac to test that. Also, you're lumping Hamels in with Greinke, Price, and Cueto...I don't think he's in that class.

I think the belief is that to have his contract end right at the theoretical end of his effectiveness makes his contract much more potent. Paying him the 24 per is MUCH better than paying him 20 per for twice the years. He is a relative bargain, which means that he has value. Value costs.

Signing someone to a FA contract would theoretically give that player zero net value to the team at the time of signing (his salary should perfectly offset his perceived value). A player's value rises or falls based on past/current performance and expected future performance compared to salary. Hamels has basically performed for the duration of the contract and is not expected to have any of the "crap" at the end of most contracts, so his production > salary.

Is he the same pitcher, today, as Greinke or Kershaw or Price or Cueto? No. But come March of next year, his value > their value (given the obnoxious contracts they will sign).

 

[tzill]

I think the belief is that to have his contract end right at the theoretical end of his effectiveness makes his contract much more potent. Paying him the 24 per is MUCH better than paying him 20 per for twice the years. He is a relative bargain, which means that he has value. Value costs.

Signing someone to a FA contract would theoretically give that player zero net value to the team at the time of signing (his salary should perfectly offset his perceived value). A player's value rises or falls based on past/current performance and expected future performance compared to salary. Hamels has basically performed for the duration of the contract and is not expected to have any of the "crap" at the end of most contracts, so his production > salary.

Is he the same pitcher, today, as Greinke or Kershaw or Price or Cueto? No. But come March of next year, his value > their value (given the obnoxious contracts they will sign).

All of this is correct, but it ignores the elephant in the room: the cost of acquistion. I don't disagree that Hamels contract, ceteris paribus, is not awful. I DO disagree that he'll be a "value" next year compared to other pitchers. He will cost $24MM PLUS the cost of losing Beede and Susac, in the hypo. That's a bad deal.

Geinke/Price/Cueto will cost only money plus maybe a draft pick. Apples and oranges.

 

[van_basten]

Not my definition of "reasonable." Yours maybe, but not mine. If the market is going crazy over SP and overpaying for a couple of good years followed by 3 or so of albatross, then you stay out of the market. I don't think Hamels contract is awful, but I wouldn't give up Beede AND Susac to test that. Also, you're lumping Hamels in with Greinke, Price, and Cueto...I don't think he's in that class.

Hamel is not in the class of Cueto, Price, Greinke. I was just saying if the Giants is going after a SP available now or this off season, I would rather take Hamel's friendly contract for next 3 years than offering 7/$200M to Cueto or Price this off season. That's going to be the price whether we like it or not.

And no I would rather not give up Beede and Susac. I am ok if they don't make any move. I just don't think that's enough to get the deal done.

 

[calsnowskier]

All of this is correct, but it ignores the elephant in the room: the cost of acquistion. I don't disagree that Hamels contract, ceteris paribus, is not awful. I DO disagree that he'll be a "value" next year compared to other pitchers. He will cost $24MM PLUS the cost of losing Beede and Susac, in the hypo. That's a bad deal.

Geinke/Price/Cueto will cost only money plus maybe a draft pick. Apples and oranges.

Exactly.

The cost in value that the Giants give up theoretically will equal the value that Hamels adds. And the Giants FO get paid the big bucks to determine what those values equate to.

But if the trade is made, and Giants make it 4 in 6, is it possible that the price was too high?

If the trade is made, and the Giants do NOT win this year, they still have a valuable asset moving forward, which would not be the case if they were to go after Price or Cueto or Scrabble (or Beltran).

The best way to look at this is to determine his value if we were to make the trade in the Off Season. Once that figure has been determined, add to it the opportunity to improve this years team moving into the playoffs. and potentially getting ANOTHER ring.

I do not pretend to know what these values are. I am insanely ignorant in this regard. As are all of us here.

But I do know that this team is potentially very good. This team has elite defense (CF and LF are probably only average at best) and sneakingly elite hitting (another util player would be the cherry on top). If we can get a 3rd starter for the rotation, I like our chances.

 

[calsnowskier]

Hamel is not in the class of Cueto, Price, Greinke. I was just saying if the Giants is going after a SP available now or this off season, I would rather take Hamel's friendly contract for next 3 years than offering 7/$200M to Cueto or Price this off season. That's going to be the price whether we like it or not.

And no I would rather not give up Beede and Susac. I am ok if they don't make any move. I just don't think that's enough to get the deal done.

When all is said and done, I think we all reside in this camp. We are just debating the fringes.

 

[calsnowskier]

Paps to the Nats. Phils toss in unannounced cash and they get a so-so SP prospect in return. I would guess the prospect is about on par to Ty Blach.

 

[Hangman]

I want them to make a move for a starting pitcher, but not an ace. Just someone better than Hudson. My perfect fit player is Samardzija. Solid number 3 or 4 pitcher. Not signed to a long big money deal. Pushes Peavy back to being a number 4 and Hestan to number 5 pitcher.

Another player I might try and get is someone who might be shocking. It is Porcello from Boston. He is a sinker baller who pitches to contact. He gets a lot of ground balls. The problem he is having in Boston is that they are finding holes all the time. Most of that is due to a very poor defensive infield. Pablo fatter than ever and making errors all the time. At first base they have a heavy ex catcher with no knees and a bad hip. At short they have Bogarts who is average in both range and throwing. Flipping him from SS to 3rd and back has messed up his thinking. He routinely throws the ball to the wrong base and is not good at double plays or holding runners on second. It seems he always goes to first. At second they have their captain, but his oft injured and have been out for about a third of the season and his range is gone in his old age. The Giants' defense is much better and there would be more double plays and more balls gotten to in the infield. The Red Sox would basically give him away and pay a lot of his salary too. He is signed to a big deal though. $21 mill a year for 4 years.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Phillies would laugh at that offer. Throw in Stratton and Mejia maybe?

Belt, Vogey, Stratton, Mejia

4

Howard, Hamels

 

[calsnowskier]

Heston as our #5???

I should have stopped reading at that point. But I didn't...

The ink on the Porcello deal is not dry yet. They signed that thing less than 4 months ago. They are not going to "give him away and pay a lot of his salary too". He is an innings eater, and those are valuable, almost at any cost. He ain't going anywhere.

But, Heston as our #5? Really?