Toughest Conference heading into 2020 season..

[Thiefery]

"ESPN FPI ranks college football's toughest conferences"

By BRAD CRAWFORD Apr 28th

Who will earn the title of college football's toughest conference this season? With the SEC already tooting its horn following another impressive NFL Draft showing, the road to a national title could once again go through the South.

According to ESPN's latest Football Power Index preseason power rankings, the SEC and Big Ten will garner top billing in the national title hunt during the 2020 season. Every Power 5 conference has at least three squads ranked inside the way-too-early projections, but the SEC and Big Ten — who each produced a College Football Playoff participant last season — are dwarfing the others.

However, neither is the most balanced Power 5 league when it comes to competitive balance.

ESPN defines its FPI as a "measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

ESPN revealed its updated FPI Top 25 for 2020 earlier this spring and now has a comprehensive look at the nation's toughest conferences entering the summer. This Power 5 conference ranking is determined by average FPI ranking position by team in every league:

5. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

Number of teams ranked in ESPN's FPI Top 25: 3

Average FPI ranking by ACC team: 47.5

The word: The ACC can thank its lucky stars for Clemson, college football's new perennial juggernaut. Outside the of the Tigers, the league is relatively weak with only three teams inside ESPN's preseason FPI Top 25. However, Florida State and North Carolina, at Nos. 26 and 29, respectively, could be worthy nationally-ranked teams if both can start the season on a hot streak given the schedule. Still, this league's national relevance revolves around Clemson and how the Tigers shoulder expectations to go 12 with an over-under win total projection of 11.5, per oddsmakers.

Travis Etienne's return to the ACC's best offense can't be understated. He makes Trevor Lawrence's life much easier offensively following Tee Higgins' departure to the NFL. Brent Venables will need to find a new alpha on defense since he'll no longer have Isaiah Simmons to lead, but that's never been an issue during his impressive tenure as Dabo Swinney's most important assistant. Keep an eye on wide receiver Justyn Ross. He should achieve first-team All-America status this fall as WR1. Given the schedule and Clemson's track record of dominance in the ACC, safe to assume the Tigers will be unbeaten once more as a top four seed entering the postseason.

4. PAC-12 CONFERENCE



Number of teams ranked in ESPN's FPI Top 25: 3

Average FPI ranking by Pac-12 team: 41.9

The word: Hoping to break a nation-leading four-year drought of missing the College Football Playoff (Washington, 2016) this season, the Pac-12 flexes two national contenders and a third team that should hover around the Top 25 this fall according to ESPN's FPI. Before we get to the league's best squad, let's look at the other two — USC and Utah. With quarterback Kedon Slovis returning, the Trojans are ranked No. 13 in the preseason FPI, sandwiched between Florida and USC. ESPN pens the Utes at No. 24.

Equipped with one of the more talented rosters in program history on the strength of an elite signing class, Oregon expects to compete for a final four berth this fall after squandering its opportunity in 2019 with an unexpected late-season loss at Arizona State. Much of that could fall on the shoulders of quarterback Tyler Shough, who was Justin Herbert's backup last season as a redshirt freshman. In limited duty, he showed command of an offense that shouldn't change all that much under new OC Joe Moorhead, who coached at Mississippi State in 2019. Tailback CJ Verdell will be one of the playmakers helping Shough ease into that transition as QB1. The Ducks are ranked No. 8 in ESPN's preseason FPI.

3. BIG TEN CONFERENCE

Number of teams ranked in ESPN's FPI Top 25: 7

Average FPI ranking by Big Ten team: 35.7

The word: The Big Ten Conference may have nation-leading seven teams ranked inside ESPN's preseason FPI rankings, however low rankings from Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan State have skewed the numbers a bit and given the Big Ten an average FPI ranking by team at 35.7 — third-best in college football. The Big Ten has two teams — Ohio State and Wisconsin — with a greater than 5 percent chance to win the national championship. No other Power 5 conference has more than one team held in such high regard. In fact, the Buckeyes have a 63.3 percent chance to get back to the Playoff and a 38.3 chance to reach the national championship game. Ohio State is one of four teams in college football this season with at least a 16 percent chance to go unbeaten and is projected to go 11-1 in the regular season.

The two wild-card contenders in the Big Ten, per the FPI, are Penn State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions come in at No. 7, while the Wolverines appear at No. 19. Coming off another 11-win season, James Franklin's team has a 29.1 percent chance of winning arguably college football's toughest division and a 15.2 percent chance to win the conference. Ironically, the Nittany Lions have a better chance at reaching the Playoff than they are standing tall as champs of the Big Ten. That's a testament to Ohio State and potentially a quality loss for Penn State in they eyes of the final four selection committee.

2. SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

Number of teams ranked in ESPN's FPI Top 25: 6

Average FPI ranking by SEC team: 34.4

The word: Surprised to see the SEC in the No. 2 spot, here? We were too. The SEC has the second-most preseason Top 25 teams with six — all included inside the first 15 — but the issue is with the bottom of the league. It's a top-heavy conference, ESPN's FPI predicts, with Vanderbilt (No. 100) and Mississippi State (No. 72) bringing up the rear to skew the league's average FPI rating. No conference nationally has more Top 10 teams than the SEC (Alabama, LSU, Georgia and Auburn).

Can the SEC repeat as national champions? After losing 14 starters and its top two assistant coaches, LSU's task to win another one will be difficult. Surprisingly, there's only two SEC teams even inside ESPN's Top 5 after placing three of the top four in last year's preseason FPI rankings and the Tigers aren't one of them (No. 6). The return of Biletnikoff winner JaMarr Chase bolsters a talented core of wideouts despite heavy draft losses and the Tigers are confident new assistants they've hired to fill holes left by Dave Aranda (Baylor head coach) and Joe Brady (Panthers offensive coordinator) will be home runs.

1. BIG 12 CONFERENCE

Number of teams ranked in ESPN's FPI Top 25: 4

Average FPI ranking by Big 12 team: 33.6

The word: Here's a surprise — the Big 12 enters the 2020 season as potentially college football's most competitive league. Thanks to top-to-bottom balance per ESPN's FPI, the Big 12 features two title contenders — Oklahoma at No. 10 and Texas at No. 11 — along with several teams on the verge, including Oklahoma State (No. 17) and Iowa State (No. 27). With nine teams in the Top 45, the Big 12 flexes strength across the league with Kansas being the lone bottom-dweller (No. 98). The FPI projects West Virginia and Texas Tech to also rebound in 2020 as possible bowl teams.

Following a full coaching staff makeover, this is a make or break campaign for Longhorns leader Tom Herman, who enters his fourth season knowing all eyes will be glued to Austin to see if Texas is Big 12 title material and then some. Chris Ash inherits a defense that largely underachieved last season for various reasons and will continue the development of Joseph Ossai and Caden Sterns, two leaders on that side. The most important player for Texas is quarterback Sam Ehlinger. This team's championship hopes ride on his shoulders. If he can stay healthy, new OC Mike Yurcich believes the sky is the limit for this offense.

ESPN FPI ranks college football's toughest conferences

 

[outofyourmind]

Seems a little surprising

 

[Thiefery]

Seems a little surprising

It really isn't, the gap between the top middle then lower half of the B16, SEC, ACC, and PAC is growing wider and wider. Not that ou isn't doing the same but week in, week out.. Big 12 is crapshoot because of QB play. My whole argument with the SEC thing was, they didn't have elite QBs throwing the ball around in spread offenses 7 years ago. Defense doesn't travel week in week out like pass happy offenses who scheme to pick on your LBs or your big LB looking safety.
Sure when it came to the bowl games and CFP, you could prepare and get healthy enough for 3 weeks or so til the game. But doing that in conference play over and over will leave you vulnerable.

 

[Deep Creek]

Until another conference (or conferences) can obtain more top 10 recuiting classes, than the SEC, the toughest conference will remain the SEC IMHO. i.e. per 24/7, the SEC had 7 of the top 10 recruiting classes in 2020. The B1G (Ohio State), Big 12 (Texas) and ACC (Clemson) each had one!
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
4. LSU
6. Texas A&M
7. Auburn
9. Florida
10. Tennessee

Now if we are talking the most competitive/balanced conference, that is another discussion.

 

[Thiefery]

Until another conference (or conferences) can obtain more top 10 recuiting classes, than the SEC, the toughest conference will remain the SEC IMHO. i.e. per 24/7, the SEC had 7 of the top 10 recruiting classes in 2020. The B1G (Ohio State), Big 12 (Texas) and ACC (Clemson) each had one!
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
4. LSU
6. Texas A&M
7. Auburn
9. Florida
10. Tennessee

Now if we are talking the most competitive/balanced conference, that is another discussion.

That's what the article is about.. Sure the SEC has more legit teams heading into 2020 but there's realistically only 3, that will be hunting for the CCG. Bama, GA/FL. LSU was always tripping over itslef til the perfect storm came this past season.

In the big.. it may be tough but not for tosu, last season showed that, no one could keep scoring with them. I think psu is the clear #2.. then there is another drop and you have the wisconsin, michigan, iowa of the world.. then you have the bottom where rutgers, indiana, NW, IL dwell at

 

[We Are Decent]

These "experts" still think Wisconsin is the #2? Christ.

 

[Thiefery]

These "experts" still think Wisconsin is the #2? Christ.

Probably because they win the west.. but yeah I even have psu as the clear #2.. I mean I know they got beat on the rd at MN but psu is clearly the biggest threat to tosu (but i think tosu wins comfortably)

 

[GoldRusher]

Nailed it.

Big12 is the toughest conference in CFB.

9 conference games, tough non conference tilts. No breaks in November..

The worst program has a NC winner at HC.

Brutal.

 

[Thiefery]

Nailed it.

Big12 is the toughest conference in CFB.

9 conference games, tough non conference tilts. No breaks in November..

The worst program has a NC winner at HC.

Brutal.

Then you add a rematch championship game to it

 

[GoldRusher]

Then you add a rematch championship game to it

Yep, best two teams play twice every single year. The other conferences cant say that.


Now, having said all that, IMHO the Big12 SHOULD take a page from the SEC and schedule our “cupcake” opponent in November to help protect the players and brand a bit.
The SEC does it right playing that “easy” team late in the season when guys are beat up.

 

[Across The Field]

It really isn't, the gap between the top middle then lower half of the B16, SEC, ACC, and PAC is growing wider and wider. Not that ou isn't doing the same but week in, week out.. Big 12 is crapshoot because of QB play. My whole argument with the SEC thing was, they didn't have elite QBs throwing the ball around in spread offenses 7 years ago. Defense doesn't travel week in week out like pass happy offenses who scheme to pick on your LBs or your big LB looking safety.
Sure when it came to the bowl games and CFP, you could prepare and get healthy enough for 3 weeks or so til the game. But doing that in conference play over and over will leave you vulnerable.

This may seem that way because Ohio State is consistently elite and was so dominant last year, but it's jut not the case. Over the last 3 years, the Big Ten has seen 8 of their 14 teams win 10 or more games. The Big 12 has seen 5 of it's 10 teams hit that mark. Also in that timeframe, the Big 12 has gone 10-11 in bowl games while the Big 10 has gone 16-10.

 

[Wild Turkey]

LOL

 

[Across The Field]

LOL

The 3rd best team in the entire Big 12 last year was 8-5 and barely finished in the top 25. That would've been good for the 7th best team in the Big Ten and 6th best in the SEC. The conversation for top conference in 2020 is between the B1G and SEC and nobody else is even close.

 

[gob]

This may seem that way because Ohio State is consistently elite and was so dominant last year, but it's jut not the case. Over the last 3 years, the Big Ten has seen 8 of their 14 teams win 10 or more games. The Big 12 has seen 5 of it's 10 teams hit that mark. Also in that timeframe, the Big 12 has gone 10-11 in bowl games while the Big 10 has gone 16-10.

Yeah, but Kansas is better than Rutgers!

 

[Wild Turkey]

The 3rd best team in the entire Big 12 last year was 8-5 and barely finished in the top 25. That would've been good for the 7th best team in the Big Ten and 6th best in the SEC. The conversation for top conference in 2020 is between the B1G and SEC and nobody else is even close.

Texas fan posting crap....nothing to see here.

 

[lilchi721]

Isn't this an old article cause I thought I saw this in March?

 

[Blackshirts BLVD]

 

[ericd7633]

1. SEC
2. B1G
3. Big 12
4. Pac 12
5. ACC

 

[Thiefery]

The 3rd best team in the entire Big 12 last year was 8-5 and barely finished in the top 25. That would've been good for the 7th best team in the Big Ten and 6th best in the SEC. The conversation for top conference in 2020 is between the B1G and SEC and nobody else is even close.

I mean there are 14 schools in the BIG.. the west is lackluster because it doesn't play tosu, um or psu consistently.

 

[Thiefery]

Texas fan posting crap....nothing to see here.