Top ten RBs year to year

[Brees#1]

I needed a place to prove my point about performances changing every year. I went to FF today to look at top FF RBs and QBs each year. This is for RBs.

The last two seasons only two RBs stayed in the top ten from the previous season. Four RBs moved over from 2013 and three from 2012.

Here were last season's top 10 RBs.
1.DJ
2.Elliott(because Bell suspension)
3.McCoy(Bell suspension)
4.Bell
5.Murray
6.Freeman
7.Blount
8.Gordon
9.Howard
10.Ingram

If we had to pick at least six to fall out........I would say Elliott, Murray, Freeman, Blount, Ingram, and Howard. Howard is probably the one that will have people blinded by last year but that's the thing teams know they are going to run the ball and with the bears playing from behind a lot against a hard schedule, I don't know how much involved he will be. But there's too many changes to say his performance will be top ten again. Now if the recent trend holds of eight RBs falling out, then I think it's between Bell, Gordon, and McCoy. Is this the year DJ has a injury? Or does a healthy Brown mean less catches for him? Bell will suffer if Big Ben goes down and that's something hard to predict, though Big Ben gets hurt significantly is non playoff years for Pittsburgh and 06, 09, and 12 were clearly years they were not expected to miss the playoffs and expected to win the division. This is a division that has had no repeat winner. So if Big Ben goes down, it could hurt Bell. McCoy's in danger of the bills coaching and the possibility if Buffalo struggles they will tank the season.

I may only draft one of the top ten RBs from last year but staying away from a second. RBs I actually like this year to get into top ten
Crowell
Montgomery(people are not picking it though but GB's been pretty loyal to their starters)
Fournette
Gillislie
Henry(in a surprise)

Possibilities
Woodhead
Mixon(looking like a three man RBBC)
Anderson(RB situation one to avoid)
Foreman(when Miller gets exposed)
Gurley(because bounce backs happen all the time)
Ajayi
Cook(depends how Minnesota does this but I don't think they paid Murray to do nothing)
Lynch(can he really just pick it back up?)
Perrine(but Thompson isn't losing the COP/passing down role)

This is why early round draft picks rarely pay off for your team. I got lucky last year with Bell's value and Murray's. And that's the players you have to draft, those being written off with clear number one roles. One example is Gurley.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Except, just because something is a trend, and just because it will probably happen, doesn't mean it will...

You will get yourself in trouble by saying because of the trend, there will likely be many new top 10 players... you have to first look at why someone was a top player, and if they have a better/worse situation this season...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

all aboard the hype train!

half of your targets are rookies.
call me skeptical, but I just don't see it.

last year's top 10 included 2 rookies, and I don't see any of this year's crop falling into a perfect scenario like Zeke and Howard did last year.

 

[averagejoe]

Howard is probably the one that will have people blinded by last year but that's the thing teams know they are going to run the ball and with the bears playing from behind a lot against a hard schedule, I don't know how much involved he will be.

Um. The Bears were 3-13 last season. They played from behind nearly ALL SEASON LONG.
Howard didn't even start until week 3.
And yes, the other teams knew the Bears were going to run the ball. Because our WR were a MASH unit and we had a carousel of QB splitting duties/games.

I know it may seem to go against logic (and I've stated this before) but a team's win/loss record does not dictate whether a RB will used. Many good RB emerge from bad teams. In fact, a couple of the RB you said that you like this year play on bad teams.

RBs I actually like this year to get into top ten
Crowell
Fournette

 

[Brees#1]

all aboard the hype train!

half of your targets are rookies.
call me skeptical, but I just don't see it.

last year's top 10 included 2 rookies, and I don't see any of this year's crop falling into a perfect scenario like Zeke and Howard did last year.

I said those were possibilities. I believe the middle list has more weight and those aren't rookies(except one)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Um. The Bears were 3-13 last season. They played from behind nearly ALL SEASON LONG.
Howard didn't even start until week 3.
And yes, the other teams knew the Bears were going to run the ball. Because our WR were a MASH unit and we had a carousel of QB splitting duties/games.

I know it may seem to go against logic (and I've stated this before) but a team's win/loss record does not dictate whether a RB will used. Many good RB emerge from bad teams. In fact, a couple of the RB you said that you like this year play on bad teams.

​

I am beginning to like crowell more and more as well... and don't call jacksonville a bad team, they are my sleeper playoff team...

 

[Brees#1]

Um. The Bears were 3-13 last season. They played from behind nearly ALL SEASON LONG.
Howard didn't even start until week 3.
And yes, the other teams knew the Bears were going to run the ball. Because our WR were a MASH unit and we had a carousel of QB splitting duties/games.

I know it may seem to go against logic (and I've stated this before) but a team's win/loss record does not dictate whether a RB will used. Many good RB emerge from bad teams. In fact, a couple of the RB you said that you like this year play on bad teams.

​

The bears were also in a lot of close games against two of the easiest divisions and division games against the lions, packers once, and vikings once. In the five blowout losses he played in, Howard produced in three of them but didn't score a TD and also fumbled in one of the games(TB).

 

[Brees#1]

Um. The Bears were 3-13 last season. They played from behind nearly ALL SEASON LONG.
Howard didn't even start until week 3.
And yes, the other teams knew the Bears were going to run the ball. Because our WR were a MASH unit and we had a carousel of QB splitting duties/games.

I know it may seem to go against logic (and I've stated this before) but a team's win/loss record does not dictate whether a RB will used. Many good RB emerge from bad teams. In fact, a couple of the RB you said that you like this year play on bad teams.

​

And on that other note. Crowell's in his second year under Hue Jackson, generally a run-first coach(Dalton in Cinci kept that philosophy from sticking) and should have a improved OL. Cleveland might actually surprise and stay in games. Jacksonville has the defense to potentially allow the running game to keep games close. No one knows what Fournette will do. He's going to sneak up on teams early on before they catch on and then we'll see what he has. Howard plays for a suspect oline and will be the number one target for defenses. Also, one other reason for regression is six months away from the field is enough time to reflect and a player may not have that same mental toughness as before.

 

[SteelersPride]

And on that other note. Crowell's in his second year under Hue Jackson, generally a run-first coach(Dalton in Cinci kept that philosophy from sticking) and should have a improved OL. Cleveland might actually surprise and stay in games. Jacksonville has the defense to potentially allow the running game to keep games close. No one knows what Fournette will do. He's going to sneak up on teams early on before they catch on and then we'll see what he has. Howard plays for a suspect oline and will be the number one target for defenses. Also, one other reason for regression is six months away from the field is enough time to reflect and a player may not have that same mental toughness as before.[/QUOTE]
so every nfl player regresses

 

[averagejoe]

Howard plays for a suspect oline and will be the number one target for defenses.

At the risk of sounding like a homer, that's false.
The Bears have been banged up on both sides of the ball. Especially last season.
Despite Trevathan and McPhee missing half the season, the Bears still had the #15 D. (If you recall, Fox has turned the D around from ranking dead last in most categories just 2 seasons ago.)
As for the O-line, here's one ranking that puts the Bears O-line ahead of Jacksonville's.

I'm not trying to convince you.
We all have our reasons for liking or not liking certain players.
You don't like Howard - fine.

Just seems that reasons like schedules, games and O-lines will convince you enough to stay away from some players but for the players you like you're willing to dismiss those reasons because you think said player will break the mold so to speak.

 

[TREFF]

At the risk of sounding like a homer, that's false.
The Bears have been banged up on both sides of the ball. Especially last season.
Despite Trevathan and McPhee missing half the season, the Bears still had the #15 D. (If you recall, Fox has turned the D around from ranking dead last in most categories just 2 seasons ago.)
As for the O-line, here's one ranking that puts the Bears O-line ahead of Jacksonville's.

I'm not trying to convince you.
We all have our reasons for liking or not liking certain players.
You don't like Howard - fine.

Just seems that reasons like schedules, games and O-lines will convince you enough to stay away from some players but for the players you like you're willing to dismiss those reasons because you think said player will break the mold so to speak.

Careful Joe, pointing out flaws and introducing reality into Brees's posts lands you on his ignore list

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Just seems that reasons like schedules, games and O-lines will convince you enough to stay away from some players but for the players you like you're willing to dismiss those reasons because you think said player will break the mold so to speak.

hahahaha

 

[averagejoe]

And on that other note. Crowell's in his second year under Hue Jackson, generally a run-first coach(Dalton in Cinci kept that philosophy from sticking) and should have a improved OL. Cleveland might actually surprise and stay in games.

I agree Hue is a run-first guy. But there are a couple of cautions here.
As OC/HC of CIN/CLE he has really not deviated from splitting touches among his RB.
Including rush attempts plus passing targets, here's how his top 2 backs divvied touches:

• 2014 - Hill led with 53% of touches; Bernard had 47%
• 2015 - Hill led with 52% of touches; Bernard had 48%
• 2016 - Crowell led with 63% of touches; Duke had 37%

If Hue holds true to form, and the rumors pan out that Duke gets more involved, I expect Crowell's touches to drop a little. That's not good news if you expect Crowell to be a top 12 RB. For reference, there were 12 other RB with more total yards than Crowell last season. In standard scoring, Crowell finished 15th.

I should also point out that since Cincy's offense was more potent than Cleveland's offense, as Hue was able to get his 2 top RB an average of 73 more touches in both seasons in Cincy.​

Jacksonville has the defense to potentially allow the running game to keep games close. No one knows what Fournette will do.

Isn't that what they said about Todd Gurley and the Rams' defense?

I think this is another stretch to think that Fournette single-handedly catapults the Jacksonville offense from their dismal 23rd ranking. Not saying that Jacksonville can't improve. But I don't see Jacksonville's offense keeping up with division rivals Colts and Titans. And I'm pretty sure the Texans D will not cave in so easily either.

 

[Brees#1]

I agree Hue is a run-first guy. But there are a couple of cautions here.
As OC/HC of CIN/CLE he has really not deviated from splitting touches among his RB.
Including rush attempts plus passing targets, here's how his top 2 backs divvied touches:

• 2014 - Hill led with 53% of touches; Bernard had 47%
• 2015 - Hill led with 52% of touches; Bernard had 48%
• 2016 - Crowell led with 63% of touches; Duke had 37%

If Hue holds true to form, and the rumors pan out that Duke gets more involved, I expect Crowell's touches to drop a little. That's not good news if you expect Crowell to be a top 12 RB. For reference, there were 12 other RB with more total yards than Crowell last season. In standard scoring, Crowell finished 15th.

I should also point out that since Cincy's offense was more potent than Cleveland's offense, as Hue was able to get his 2 top RB an average of 73 more touches in both seasons in Cincy.​

Isn't that what they said about Todd Gurley and the Rams' defense?

I think this is another stretch to think that Fournette single-handedly catapults the Jacksonville offense from their dismal 23rd ranking. Not saying that Jacksonville can't improve. But I don't see Jacksonville's offense keeping up with division rivals Colts and Titans. And I'm pretty sure the Texans D will not cave in so easily either.

Duke is looking to be a slot receiver. That means more for Crowell. i never got the impression Hue preferred two RBs given what McFadden did in 10 and 11 before he got hurt. In 2015, its not like the rams passing offense was any better. If Fournette were not a rookie, I would not like him at all and I am still leary of drafting him.

 

[Hambombs]

Bell was always #1

 

[Brees#1]

Bell missed the first three games. So therefore, he did not finish at number 1.

 

[Red_Chaos]

I got a bad feeling about gurley, i know our line was bad but he didn't hit holes like he did his first year. LA might be eating him alive and turning him into another Tavon Austin

 

[eaglesnut]

I got a bad feeling about gurley, i know our line was bad but he didn't hit holes like he did his first year. LA might be eating him alive and turning him into another Tavon Austin

Just read that he's been running hard in camp. I think McVay will get him rolling. He's gotta be hungry after last season. I mean, shit, he's Todd Gurley!

 

[Brees#1]

I got a bad feeling about gurley, i know our line was bad but he didn't hit holes like he did his first year. LA might be eating him alive and turning him into another Tavon Austin

Austin was drafted in 2013, a year where second rounders were drafted in the first. It's hard to hit your holes when you don't get enough carries because of playing on a bad offense or defenses going all out to stop you.