Auction keeper - pick 1

[SmokingMonkey]

FWIW, here's fantasypros values



Pickens is $10

 

[MilkSpiller22]

How many auction league you in?

Havent been in one in a while... not by my choice... just get stuck doing leagues that do drafts... if i could drop any money leagues i am in, i would absolutely jump back into Auction leagues... as i think it is the best way to draft...

But my question to you is why does it matter?? most of us are not in many, if any... why should that stop us from giving opinions??? and what did i say that was so wrong??


But what i know about auctions... is that the timing of calling a player for auction is more important for that players price than their actual projected price... and in most leagues, the better players prices fluctuate more.... as you are more willing to pay for them... and people will pay for upside, no matter where that player is projected... just like in snake... where there are players you jump to get, while others you let them fall to you...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Havent been in one in a while... not by my choice... just get stuck doing leagues that do drafts... if i could drop any money leagues i am in, i would absolutely jump back into Auction leagues... as i think it is the best way to draft...

But my question to you is why does it matter?? most of us are not in many, if any... why should that stop us from giving opinions??? and what did i say that was so wrong??


But what i know about auctions... is that the timing of calling a player for auction is more important for that players price than their actual projected price... and in most leagues, the better players prices fluctuate more.... as you are more willing to pay for them... and people will pay for upside, no matter where that player is projected... just like in snake... where there are players you jump to get, while others you let them fall to you...

I was just curious. I don't go into auction drafts thinking I'll pay big ( $43 is pretty substantial) for a guy that doesn't have a track record of having a big season, is coming off a major injury and his team just signed a big name FA for serious money for his position. Course once the auction starts plans go out the window unless your very disciplined ( I'm not).

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I was just curious. I don't go into auction drafts thinking I'll pay big ( $43 is pretty substantial) for a guy that doesn't have a track record of having a big season, is coming off a major injury and his team just signed a big name FA for serious money. Course once the auction starts plans go out the window unless your very disciplined ( I'm not).

when did i say i would pay 43 for that?? i said if he was healthy, i would pay for him... But he is not.. so i wouldnt...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

i said if he was healthy, i would pay for him.

OK each his own.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

OK each his own.

if he was coming into the season healthy he would have been a first rounder in snake drafts.... they would have also probably not Gotten Cook... so there is a lot to digest there.... but it doesnt matter... he is not full strength... so it doesnt matter, its all conjecture...

the downgrade is already priced in... Smokingmonkey showed a chart saying that in the average 1/2 pt PPR league he would go 20... 23 is pretty close to that... so it is not like the price is off...

so i am not sure, what you are even questioning....

 

[Shanemansj13]

Well how healthy is he?

This question alone tells you Hall isn't worth the price. Too many questions no one can answer. A lot of if's.

Spending 1/4 of your budget on a guy that was out his full rookie year, the team has a new QB, the team signed a guy that will at least take away 40% of his production...no thanks. He probably goes for half that in the auction.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I suck at auctions, but did alright in my first season in a home league that's been running for at least a couple decades now.
last year's keeper was Justin Jefferson for $39....that worked out, was able to scramble together some high score weeks and won the division so I doubled up my entry fees on the year
but came up just short in the semi-finals, and no 3rd place match in this league.

12tm half ppr, +3pts at 100/200/300yds rush and rec, 300/400/500yds pass
$200 auction budget, can't keep same player more than 1 year

options:
Jahan Dotson...$1
Kirk Cousins....$1
George Pickens....$3
Christian Kirk....$9
Breece Hall....$23
Derrick Henry....$65

90% sure that Dotson for $1 is going to be the keeper here. Thought process on not keeping Hall, who was the original planned target to keep before the injury, was that re-bidding on Hall or even Henry could see both RBs go for a lower price than what my keeper value has them at to retain.

all thoughts are welcome

I’d say Cousins might even be better. Depending on the average price range for QB, a $1 set it and forget it QB might be yummy.

What’s Dotson’s ceiling? Top 30 WR?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I’d say Cousins might even be better. Depending on the average price range for QB, a $1 set it and forget it QB might be yummy.

What’s Dotson’s ceiling? Top 30 WR?

looking at the last 5 games from 2022 after Dotson came back from injury, he avg 4.2rec, 68.8yds, 0.6tds, which would project out to 71rec, 1170yds, 10tds over a full season, good enough for WR8-10 range last year with Amon-Ra and Cooper.

I realize that's wishful thinking and more of a best case scenario vs realistic scenario, but even if TD pace drops off, Howell looks good enough to support two WR2s for fantasy

 

[TKOSpikes]

looking at the last 5 games from 2022 after Dotson came back from injury, he avg 4.2rec, 68.8yds, 0.6tds, which would project out to 71rec, 1170yds, 10tds over a full season, good enough for WR8-10 range last year with Amon-Ra and Cooper.

I realize that's wishful thinking and more of a best case scenario vs realistic scenario, but even if TD pace drops off, Howell looks good enough to support two WR2s for fantasy

Certainly a good case for him. I just don’t trust that… and it’s not like you can keep him the next year, so it would be a 2023 bet.

Can’t get safer than a $1 top ten QB…who will probably lead the league in pass attempts.

 

[eaglesnut]

This question alone tells you Hall isn't worth the price. Too many questions no one can answer. A lot of if's.

Spending 1/4 of your budget on a guy that was out his full rookie year, the team has a new QB, the team signed a guy that will at least take away 40% of his production...no thanks. He probably goes for half that in the auction.

Would you not keep Hall for a 7th rounder in a 10-man? Other options are Fields, Pierce, or Hockenson for the same 7th round pick.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Would you not keep Hall for a 7th rounder in a 10-man? Other options are Fields, Pierce, or Hockenson for the same 7th round pick.

7th is pretty good value but it depends what the options are at RB. Fields has a lot of upside for a 7th too....

 

[averagejoe]

options:
Jahan Dotson...$1
Kirk Cousins....$1
George Pickens....$3
Christian Kirk....$9
Breece Hall....$23
Derrick Henry....$65

I do an auction league every year. Love 'em.
Honestly think you should keep Kirk for $9.

Everyone will overspend for the top guys at each position.
As the choices dwindle down, some desperate owners will overpay for mediocre talent. Kirk is pretty reliable and he doesn't miss games.

Henry's value is low this season. But again, some guys will miss out on CMC, Bijan, etc. The choices after Henry should scare anyone into a buying frenzy.

The worst scenario in an auction draft is desperate owners with much of their budget left to squander.

The players you're listing fit right into that window where they could overpay.

 

[TREFF]

when did i say i would pay 43 for that?? i said if he was healthy, i would pay for him... But he is not.. so i wouldnt.

I got yer back man, dunno what Harold is smoking. You never said you'd pay $43 for Hall...you said you'd easily pay $46...for Cook


"and sure, i would pay 46 for a healthy Cook... pretty easily too..."

 

[averagejoe]

The only way I see Henry going for the $40 that FantasyPros has on him is if he is nominated for auctuon first. (Or the first RB.)

Some owners will reason to themself, older, lots of mileage, bad team.... I'll save my budget for a younger guy.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I got yer back man, dunno what Harold is smoking. You never said you'd pay $43 for Hall...you said you'd easily pay $46...for Cook


"and sure, i would pay 46 for a healthy Cook... pretty easily too..."

Your right, I had some reading comprehension issue there. Apologizes @MilkSpiller22.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I got yer back man, dunno what Harold is smoking. You never said you'd pay $43 for Hall...you said you'd easily pay $46...for Cook


"and sure, i would pay 46 for a healthy Cook... pretty easily too..."

I did have a typo in saying cook when I was clearly talking about hall...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Treff is probably wondering where everyone is getting the kick ass weed from. LOL

 

[TREFF]

Treff is probably wondering where everyone is getting the kick ass weed from. LOL

I do live in Colorado...I'm getting used to it...friggin potheads

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I do live in Colorado...I'm getting used to it...friggin potheads