Too early to talk about draft

[HaroldSeattle]

Every lottery winner bought a ticket.

That's right. Reminds me of the parable where someone prayed to God asking to win the lottery, after a few drawings God finally spoke up and said: "Son I wanted to answer your prayer but you got to at least buy a ticket ". The pool of QBs in any draft that have the potential to be a starting QB is small, usually about 3, but could be 5 or none. Now the majority of those QBs in the pool will be busts, but outside of that pool of QBs your chances of hitting on a starting QB don't exist in any realistic sense. So you have to find a way to draft a QB in the pool and take your chances. Seahawks have that chance this next draft, pass and who knows how long it will be to have another shot or how expensive ( see what the 49ers paid to draft within the pool).

 

[JMR]

That's right. Reminds me of the parable where someone prayed to God asking to win the lottery, after a few drawings God finally spoke up and said: "Son I wanted to answer your prayer but you got to at least buy a ticket ". The pool of QBs in any draft that have the potential to be a starting QB is small, usually about 3, but could be 5 or none. Now the majority of those QBs in the pool will be busts, but outside of that pool of QBs your chances of hitting on a starting QB don't exist in any realistic sense. So you have to find a way to draft a QB in the pool and take your chances. Seahawks have that chance this next draft, pass and who knows how long it will be to have another shot or how expensive ( see what the 49ers paid to draft within the pool).

You said "almost every" team has a QB starter picked in the 1st round. The actual number is 21 out of 32, which I would not consider to be almost every team. It's a solid majority but definitely not almost every team. And that counts Deshaun Watson as a starter even though he has yet to play a single down for Cleveland. Of those 21, 8 were not even picked by their current team. So 13 of 32 teams have a starting QB (some are good, some aren't, some unproven) that they picked in the 1st round, which means most teams in the league have starting QBs that were acquired either after the 1st round, via trade, or in free agency.

I think it was around 10 years ago now where I looked at all 1st round QBs drafted since 1990. What I found was that around half of them were flaming busts, 25% were mediocre type NFL starters (think Trent Dilfer) and then 25% were pro bowl type players. It's a boom or bust proposition when you pick a QB in rnd 1, and you're stuck with them for a few years. You have to play them to figure out if they're good, and if they aren't then not only did you waste that critical pick but you also have that player on the field losing you games. You can't use them on special teams, can't just use them as situational players, can't find something they can do outside of what you drafted them for. They're either taking every snap for your team, or they are benched. No other position carries such risk.

You're looking at the problem differently than I and a few others here. You're trying to figure out the best chance to find a good QB, while some of us are assessing what is the best use of a top 5 draft pick. When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

So name me some QBs that impress you that were not taken early in round 1. Also what's the plan if Geno turns back into a pumpkin, how do the Seahawks find a franchise QB?

I think we can play the what if game if we want but let's see how Geno does for now. As for later picks, of the newer guys, Jalen hurts was mid second round and Philly had Wentz which is a lot worse than Geno. Lamar Jackson was the end of rd 1. Dak is a 4th rounder and he has worked out, although I'm not sure if he can win the big game but we will see. Going further back to 2012, we got Russ in the 3rd round. Meanwhile the can't miss talent of Andrew Luck ended up almost crippled because they didn't have a team around him. And RG3 was ROY and done. My thing with this is that not being pressured to play these kids at first due to the draft capital invested is a good thing. Let them watch and learn a bit.
As far as the Hawks are concerned, we have much more glaring needs right now and getting that high pick from Denver is a gift that nobody saw coming so let's not pass up the chance to get a game wrecker on defense to draft a QB when our team is scoring almost 30 points a game. Maybe Geno is the answer or maybe just a bridge but the team isn't competing for a championship with this defense. 2 of our 5 losses, we score 30+ pts and we gave up 45 pts to the Lions. I'm not saying we shouldn't look for the future "franchise QB" (God, I hate that term). I'm just saying don't waste a top 5 pick when there is about an 80% failure rate. Right now, Seattle needs an edge rusher, or a DT like Carter that can push the middle and make teams account for. We have a chance to get a guy like Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, etc., I say go that route all day long.

 

[SJ76]

Top 5 potential and top 25 in the first and 2nd?

Who is on your wish list?

Postions?

For me. A fat boy like Bryan Breeze ( Clemson) would be good. But would be overjoyed if it's Will Anderson (Alabama Edge)

Count me in. Lol

Haven’t looked at the draft this early in years.

Crazy how bad y’all have drafted over the past 5-10 years but killed it this year. I was very wrong on the Hawks and Broncos this year. Russ just sucks


Bring on our early 2nd rounder!!

 

[Judge Fudge]

Count me in. Lol

Haven’t looked at the draft this early in years.

Crazy how bad y’all have drafted over the past 5-10 years but killed it this year. I was very wrong on the Hawks and Broncos this year. Russ just sucks


Bring on our early 2nd rounder!!

For me. We had a glaring weakness that got exposed on Sunday.

We need a Fatboy to help.

 

[SJ76]

For me. We had a glaring weakness that got exposed on Sunday.

We need a Fatboy to help.

Dline?

That fat boy from Georgia that went to the eagles went around 15 overall I think. That was a steal and I knew it

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You said "almost every" team has a QB starter picked in the 1st round. The actual number is 21 out of 32, which I would not consider to be almost every team. It's a solid majority but definitely not almost every team. And that counts Deshaun Watson as a starter even though he has yet to play a single down for Cleveland. Of those 21, 8 were not even picked by their current team. So 13 of 32 teams have a starting QB (some are good, some aren't, some unproven) that they picked in the 1st round, which means most teams in the league have starting QBs that were acquired either after the 1st round, via trade, or in free agency.

I think it was around 10 years ago now where I looked at all 1st round QBs drafted since 1990. What I found was that around half of them were flaming busts, 25% were mediocre type NFL starters (think Trent Dilfer) and then 25% were pro bowl type players. It's a boom or bust proposition when you pick a QB in rnd 1, and you're stuck with them for a few years. You have to play them to figure out if they're good, and if they aren't then not only did you waste that critical pick but you also have that player on the field losing you games. You can't use them on special teams, can't just use them as situational players, can't find something they can do outside of what you drafted them for. They're either taking every snap for your team, or they are benched. No other position carries such risk.

You're looking at the problem differently than I and a few others here. You're trying to figure out the best chance to find a good QB, while some of us are assessing what is the best use of a top 5 draft pick. When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

21 out of 32 is enough to indicate that the vast majority of starters get drafted in the first round. Yes an occasional exception like Brady or Wilson happens or Dalton, Carr or Jimmy G, or Geno ( tier 2 or 3 types), but some are Davis mills or Taylor Heinicke of the world. Overall they are rare and your much more likely to end up with a Mills or Heinicke then a Brady or Wilson.

Yes I am looking for the best chance to land a franchise QB and not have to get by with a Jimmy G. type. We all should. I get that some feel taking
a Will Anderson or Jalen Carter is a safer bet or more sure bet, but is it? I'm not so sure, as every position has a history of busts with early picks, Seahawk fans remember Brian Bosworth and Aaron Curry for example. QB is the supreme important position and by far the hardest to fill properly.
So yes for the future of the team we need to consider taking a QB first and only passing on that if there is only busts left to choose from and I don't think that is established yet. If that turns out to be the case......well it's going to be a long long search for a frachise QB then, barring a football miracle, but the team will be semi good at least, so there is that.

Lots of time to evaluate the QBs in the draft and the ones rated highest today may not be come draft time. If they take a QB with the Broncos 1st that still leaves a 1st, two 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th,a 5th and a 6th to fill out the roster ( I think).

 

[Judge Fudge]

Dline?

That fat boy from Georgia that went to the eagles went around 15 overall I think. That was a steal and I knew it

Dline. DT especially.

Jacobs just destroyed us

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think we can play the what if game if we want but let's see how Geno does for now. As for later picks, of the newer guys, Jalen hurts was mid second round and Philly had Wentz which is a lot worse than Geno. Lamar Jackson was the end of rd 1. Dak is a 4th rounder and he has worked out, although I'm not sure if he can win the big game but we will see. Going further back to 2012, we got Russ in the 3rd round. Meanwhile the can't miss talent of Andrew Luck ended up almost crippled because they didn't have a team around him. And RG3 was ROY and done. My thing with this is that not being pressured to play these kids at first due to the draft capital invested is a good thing. Let them watch and learn a bit.
As far as the Hawks are concerned, we have much more glaring needs right now and getting that high pick from Denver is a gift that nobody saw coming so let's not pass up the chance to get a game wrecker on defense to draft a QB when our team is scoring almost 30 points a game. Maybe Geno is the answer or maybe just a bridge but the team isn't competing for a championship with this defense. 2 of our 5 losses, we score 30+ pts and we gave up 45 pts to the Lions. I'm not saying we shouldn't look for the future "franchise QB" (God, I hate that term). I'm just saying don't waste a top 5 pick when there is about an 80% failure rate. Right now, Seattle needs an edge rusher, or a DT like Carter that can push the middle and make teams account for. We have a chance to get a guy like Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, etc., I say go that route all day long.

The Seahawks have good draft capital after the Broncos pick to strengthen the rest of the roster.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

For me. We had a glaring weakness that got exposed on Sunday.

We need a Fatboy to help.

Do you feel that's not possible with a pick or picks after the Broncos pick? I think it is.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Do you feel that's not possible with a pick or picks after the Broncos pick? I think it is.

I think that 2nds can give us a couple.

I'm on the thing if Geno wants big money. Get a Qb at top 5

If not. Anderson/Murphy/Breeze.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think that 2nds can give us a couple.

I'm on the thing if Geno wants big money. Get a Qb at top 5

If not. Anderson/Murphy/Breeze.

Your a also a Jag fan right? Travon Walker was the #1 overall pick last year and he's not even the best defensive rookie on the team, Delvin Lloyd is. Seahawks drafted Woolen in the 5th the last draft and he's in the conversation for DROY. My point is you find good to great defensive players throughout the draft, not necessary ( or even a sure bet) to use a top 5 pick.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Your a also a Jag fan right? Travon Walker was the #1 overall pick last year and he's not even the best defensive rookie on the team, Delvin Lloyd is. Seahawks drafted Woolen in the 5th the last draft and he's in the conversation for DROY. My point is you find good to great defensive players throughout the draft, not necessary ( or even a sure bet) to use a top 5 pick.

True.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

If Geno signs cheap (talking $20M per) and Seattle has a successful season (playoffs), the team you can build up with the draft and cap capital that we have next season is insane... and you can grab a QB in the 3rd...

I mean if your guy is there with the 1st, snag him... but if Geno has a good season and Seattle spends those picks on DL/OL/WR/ILB free agents are going to flock here for SUPER cheap to get Carroll another SBOWL.

Time will tell... If we can get Geno for $20M per year for a few years, I'm for it. Only QB I'd be happy with in the first is Stroud. I could stomach a trade down with our pick for Levis as a late 1st, assuming we resign Smith.

Definitely think anything more than 25 for Geno is crazy talk.

And he should take 25. This fucking guy was nearly out of the league. Take your 4 years 100 mil and be thrilled

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Dline?

That fat boy from Georgia that went to the eagles went around 15 overall I think. That was a steal and I knew it

Jordon Davis? He's been banged up all year and only played about 33% on the snaps and is on IR right now I think.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Definitely think anything more than 25 for Geno is crazy talk.

And he should take 25. This fucking guy was nearly out of the league. Take your 4 years 100 mil and be thrilled

I think guaranteed money will be the sticking point.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Jordon Davis? He's been banged up all year and only played about 33% on the snaps and is on IR right now I think.

Well he played pretty good in the games he started, but it was against lesser teams. That said you're correct, he's on IR right now.

Most draft reports I've seen have said despite Jordan going in the 1st middle frame (high teens) that Carter was the reason for their large success and Carter doesn't really seem to have lost a step despite some of the DL talent Georgia lost. But that would make sense as you've got a guy projected to go top 5 vs. another at top 15 and 2021 was regarded as a weaker class with little QB early round prospects.

I think Georgia kind of runs Pete's hybrid system. So you'd have Harris, a nose tackle, and Carter, and then a stand up LEO linebacker.... so if Seattle can find a decent nose tackle, you have the ability to run Brooks, Nwosu, Mafe, and I think that's specifically what Adams was brought in for (a MONEY linebacker role, but that's a failed experiment).... Taylor seems like a lost cause but he might work if you had Carter, Harris, <insert average nose tackle>.

I mean I can't knock Pete John if they draft two DLs with 2 of their first 4 picks. Someone like Carter/Murphy in the 1st and a solid nose tackle in the 2nd. Our pass D has been so-so this year, but teams have been trampling us on the run. Mafe is raw so I can excuse him, Nwosu/Brooks are solid against the run... and then you have Barton/Taylor who can't stop the run for shit, and Woods is just too old to handle on his own.

 

[MrS]

21 out of 32 is enough to indicate that the vast majority of starters get drafted in the first round. Yes an occasional exception like Brady or Wilson happens or Dalton, Carr or Jimmy G, or Geno ( tier 2 or 3 types), but some are Davis mills or Taylor Heinicke of the world. Overall they are rare and your much more likely to end up with a Mills or Heinicke then a Brady or Wilson.

Yes I am looking for the best chance to land a franchise QB and not have to get by with a Jimmy G. type. We all should. I get that some feel taking
a Will Anderson or Jalen Carter is a safer bet or more sure bet, but is it? I'm not so sure, as every position has a history of busts with early picks, Seahawk fans remember Brian Bosworth and Aaron Curry for example. QB is the supreme important position and by far the hardest to fill properly.
So yes for the future of the team we need to consider taking a QB first and only passing on that if there is only busts left to choose from and I don't think that is established yet. If that turns out to be the case......well it's going to be a long long search for a frachise QB then, barring a football miracle, but the team will be semi good at least, so there is that.

Lots of time to evaluate the QBs in the draft and the ones rated highest today may not be come draft time. If they take a QB with the Broncos 1st that still leaves a 1st, two 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th,a 5th and a 6th to fill out the roster ( I think).

theoretically, if stroud and young go 1/2 or 2/1 and we are picking 3rd and 15th would you want to reach on a QB at 3 or wait and see who drops to 15?

this is where I am right now, I think the top two will be gone and we will be holding our dicks at #3. if that happens, taking the top D player makes the most sense.

 

[SJ76]

Jordon Davis? He's been banged up all year and only played about 33% on the snaps and is on IR right now I think.

He’s been out 4 games. Since Oct 30 but he’s probably back this week. Dude is a beast

He’s behind Cox so he’s just a rotational rookie for now. In Seattle he’d be starting

 

[SJ76]

Hopefully y’all don’t mind me Crashing you site. I just can’t go to the Rams board - I love Retro but just over the top there. It was a mess last year when we won lol