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Too early to talk about draft

MrS

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My question then is which top QBs did you correctly judge as top-notch talent while they were playing in college? Did you watch Mahomes in college and say that guy is great. Did you watch Jared Allen and think he's going to be really good? Herbert? We fans need to understand our limitations in judging talent coming out of college. I think it's reasonable to say that QB by far is the most crucial position to fill. Think it's likely that this may be the last top 5 pick the Seahawks have for the foreseeable future. Think it's fair to say that it's hard to land a franchise QB and the later you draft him the less likely you hit on one, the percentage goes down drastically with each round.
Listening to those who get paid to watch and judge college players entering the draft, this is supposed to be a good draft for QBs.

How would you feel if the Seahawks passed on a QB then found themselves searching for a quality QB for the next decade and turns out that a quality QB was there for the taking with that first pick?

Speaking for myself, taking a QB with the first pick is a no-brainer. It's not only the most important position but the hardest to fill and it gets harder if you wait and draft him later in the draft.
im not a scout, obviously
but where is the fun in being a fan if you cant debate these things?

that being said, reading scouting reports Levis sounds like the kind of QB they would want and that scares the shit out of me.
 

JMR

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im not convinced any of the top rated QBs are going to be good.
stroud looks a lot like geno, has the skills but cant follow through and lead his team to victory, even when surrounded by top tier talent.
young is a skinny midget, hard pass.
It's just too difficult to hit on a QB that isn't a generational type talent like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, and even many of the ones we thought were generational QBs busted. And you can't hide them once they're on your team. If they aren't good then they're either taking every snap and losing you games, or your prized pick is on the sideline. If it's any other position, you can work them in here and there and try to bring them along. You can get a DB some help or slide a tackle inside or play rush end on passing downs, and right off the bat they can at least contribute on ST. Not QB. It's all or nothing, boom or bust. Mostly bust, so no thanks with the top pick.
meanwhile a guy like will anderson has the potential to be the next von miller.

if we take DL and hold off on reaching for a QB, one will probably be there when we pick again
DL all the way for me. You play 4 or 5 of them at once with a few more in a rotation, and you just can't have too many good ones. They also get hurt a lot, so if you have 7 then you probably really only have 5 or maybe 6.
 

HaroldSeattle

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It's just too difficult to hit on a QB that isn't a generational type talent like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, and even many of the ones we thought were generational QBs busted. And you can't hide them once they're on your team. If they aren't good then they're either taking every snap and losing you games, or your prized pick is on the sideline. If it's any other position, you can work them in here and there and try to bring them along. You can get a DB some help or slide a tackle inside or play rush end on passing downs, and right off the bat they can at least contribute on ST. Not QB. It's all or nothing, boom or bust. Mostly bust, so no thanks with the top pick.

DL all the way for me. You play 4 or 5 of them at once with a few more in a rotation, and you just can't have too many good ones. They also get hurt a lot, so if you have 7 then you probably really only have 5 or maybe 6.
I consider hitting on a generational-type QB equal to hitting the mega million, hitting on a decent franchise QB however is feasible to me. I hold the opinion that a lot of QBs bust because they land on bad teams with bad coaching staffs and few players with talent on the team. I doubt GMs let fear of failing to pick correctly be a factor while drafting. Certainly the later you pick a QB the odds of hitting get greater. Teams that have a need at QB now or the very near future spend expensive draft capital to move up the draft to where the Seahawks are to have better odds of hitting.

All positions are a crap shoot in the draft. All one has to do is look at the past drafts to verify that. The easiest positions to hit on are the positions you wait on to draft, say RB for example. The harder it is to hit on a position the earlier you want to have a shot to pick.
 

Sharkonabicycle

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I consider hitting on a generational-type QB equal to hitting the mega million, hitting on a decent franchise QB however is feasible to me. I hold the opinion that a lot of QBs bust because they land on bad teams with bad coaching staffs and few players with talent on the team. I doubt GMs let fear of failing to pick correctly be a factor while drafting. Certainly the later you pick a QB the odds of hitting get greater. Teams that have a need at QB now or the very near future spend expensive draft capital to move up the draft to where the Seahawks are to have better odds of hitting.

All positions are a crap shoot in the draft. All one has to do is look at the past drafts to verify that. The easiest positions to hit on are the positions you wait on to draft, say RB for example. The harder it is to hit on a position the earlier you want to have a shot to pick.

Unless it's Stroud I'm not interested...

This teams biggest weakness is ILB, Center, and EDGE. Blythe can't run block, Barton has zero ability or reason being on the field... and Taylor is a mediocre pass rusher (thought he would be better woops) and horrible run defender.

QB is not the weak point of this team. If Smith wants some massive $30M+ contract, fine... let him walk. But he's far from the 'need to solve' situation on the team.

Barton is absolute garbage. Literally anyone we march out there next year would be better.... Blythe is also on that same page. OKAY (and I'm saying OKAY - AVERAGE) pass blocker, and one of the worst run blockings Centers in the league. And then Taylor.... somehow the talking heads fooled the fuck out of us on that one, because Taylor is the most useless EGDE players the Hawks have started in the last 50 years.
 
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HaroldSeattle

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Unless it's Stroud I'm not interested...
That's fine because you're not drafting for the Seahawks ( neither am I). I'll ask you the same question I asked MrS . Did you tout Allen, Herbert Mahomes while they were in college? No? Well, there you have it.
 

HaroldSeattle

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Unless it's Stroud I'm not interested...

This teams biggest weakness is ILB, Center, and EDGE. Blythe can't run block, Barton has zero ability or reason being on the field... and Taylor is a mediocre pass rusher (thought he would be better woops) and horrible run defender.

QB is not the weak point of this team. If Smith wants some massive $30M+ contract, fine... let him walk. But he's far from the 'need to solve' situation on the team.

Barton is absolute garbage. Literally anyone we march out there next year would be better.... Blythe is also on that same page. OKAY (and I'm saying OKAY - AVERAGE) pass blocker, and one of the worst run blockings Centers in the league. And then Taylor.... somehow the talking heads fooled the fuck out of us on that one, because Taylor is the most useless EGDE players the Hawks have started in the last 50 years.
Maybe we should start a thread grading QBs coming out of college for this draft and see how it works out.
 

Sharkonabicycle

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Maybe we should start a thread grading QBs coming out of college for this draft and see how it works out.

prisonrules.gif
 

JMR

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I consider hitting on a generational-type QB equal to hitting the mega million, hitting on a decent franchise QB however is feasible to me. I hold the opinion that a lot of QBs bust because they land on bad teams with bad coaching staffs and few players with talent on the team. I doubt GMs let fear of failing to pick correctly be a factor while drafting. Certainly the later you pick a QB the odds of hitting get greater. Teams that have a need at QB now or the very near future spend expensive draft capital to move up the draft to where the Seahawks are to have better odds of hitting.

The supporting cast is a factor, agreed. But the supporting cast is also a factor in enabling a career backup (and previously labeled a bust) like Geno Smith to play as he has this year. He probably wouldn't be doing as well in Denver or Carolina or Houston. And of course GMs aren't fearful of failing when making picks. Those type guys don't land jobs like GM of an NFL football team. But that doesn't diminish how difficult it is or change the poor batting average of NFL teams picking top round QBs. If you go back to like 2017 and list out all the QBs taken in the top 10, it's brutal. There are like 3 guys total who are living up. What do you do with QBs who don't? They hang on you like a bad rash, setting your franchise back for years. Most of the teams drafting a QB toward the top of round 1 aren't just doing it once. And sure, teams that have a need at QB are spending draft capital to get one, but that doesn't make it a good move. There are plenty of teams out there not doing it.

But to your point, I think it would be a great move if the team takes advantages of the other teams out there willing to pay a king's ransom to move up and take a gamble on a QB. We stockpile more picks and use them to build the team even stronger, and you can get a lot in return for a top 5 pick without even having to move down too far. Take a look at Chicago a few years ago when they went up 1 spot to get Trubisky. Let's find the next Chicago who is trying to find the next Trubisky. They end up sucking for doing it, and we make hay.

All positions are a crap shoot in the draft. All one has to do is look at the past drafts to verify that. The easiest positions to hit on are the positions you wait on to draft, say RB for example. The harder it is to hit on a position the earlier you want to have a shot to pick.
I understand what you're getting at here, but that last sentence means you're compounding the risk. And since we already have a QB in place (notwithstanding looming free agency) who is functioning in our system at a high level, I don't see the sense in taking great risk on that same position with a highly coveted top 5 pick. It would only have a chance to make sense to me if Geno leaves *and* we are in love with whatever QB is there with our best pick. And if Geno does leave, why doesn't this front office just go out and find the next Geno instead of drafting the next Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, or Josh Rosen?

Pete & John found their last franchise QB in the 3rd round and went to 2 SBs not long after. By not blowing multiple top picks finding a QB (like most teams have to do before they are done), they were able to build one of the all time best defenses. Now they have a reclamation project who is playing at a level unmatched by all but a few at the position this year. Given that, I have to believe they are fully confident they can "address" the QB position in more ways than using a top 5 pick on one. I think PC/JS are not totally opposed to a QB with their best pick in '23, but I don't think that's their most desired course.
 

HaroldSeattle

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The supporting cast is a factor, agreed. But the supporting cast is also a factor in enabling a career backup (and previously labeled a bust) like Geno Smith to play as he has this year. He probably wouldn't be doing as well in Denver or Carolina or Houston.
The coaching staff as well.
But to your point, I think it would be a great move if the team takes advantages of the other teams out there willing to pay a king's ransom to move up and take a gamble on a QB.
If the Seahawks don't feel there is a franchise type, then I'd be OK selling the pick for a big haul. Preferably to a bad franchise and will include their next year's first.
I understand what you're getting at here, but that last sentence means you're compounding the risk.
You are risking more value but getting better odds, Surely you agree the later the round the longer the odds of hitting on a QB. I do not find using pennies to buy junk a good idea, but yeah you are only tossing away pennies but that doesn't solve the QB problem. Think it's unrealistic to expect PC and JS to hit on a QB when the odds are that bad. QB is not where you want to be frugal or cheap or scared. So even if the Seahawks think they have identified an unpolished gem I think the right move is to draft a QB early then draft that unpolished gem later for insurance.
Pete & John found their last franchise QB in the 3rd round and went to 2 SBs not long after. By not blowing multiple top picks finding a QB (like most teams have to do before they are done), they were able to build one of the all time best defenses. Now they have a reclamation project who is playing at a level unmatched by all but a few at the position this year.
I feel we should credit Pete and John for their QB savvy and think Pete knows how to bring a QB along and not put more on their plate than is wise.
He runs a QB-friendly system. As for Geno, I can't convince myself that his level of play will hold up. He'll have ups and downs. The first half yesterday is an example of one of those "down" times. He's going to be a FA on top of that. I felt the plan from the get-go was to find a franchise QB in 2023 and not a single poster thought otherwise this off-season. Folks are just getting carried away because their expectations have been exceeded by Geno thus far, he's still a mediocre QB who has been playing above his head temporarily.
 

JMR

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You are risking more value but getting better odds, Surely you agree the later the round the longer the odds of hitting on a QB. I do not find using pennies to buy junk a good idea, but yeah you are only tossing away pennies but that doesn't solve the QB problem.

I am just not convinced we have a QB problem that needs solving. Maybe we will if Geno leaves, but you seem to feel that way even if Geno is re-signed. I also don't think Pete & John see it that way for reasons I've already mentioned. But yeah, that's pretty much a fundamental difference we have about this team and what would be the best way to spend Denver's pick. To me, it makes a lot more sense to risk some money on Geno than it does to risk a top 5 pick on a QB.
 

MrS

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is pete going to stay around beyond his current contract?
if not, they may decide to pay geno and draft for DL and OL this year and make a big push to win in year 3 post wilson.

the rams taking another hit, aaron donald may have a high ankle sprain. looking like #3 is our absolute best case scenario.
 

seattlefan75

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As cool as Geno has been and he has been an awesome surprise if our actual goal is to be great and get back to the super bowl and win it then I dont think he is our guy. If our goal is to be competitive, make the playoffs and win a playoff game I think that would be his ceiling. Luckily the NFC is pretty thin with great QBs as the best QBs are more so in the AFC. CJ Stroud looks to be destined to go to the Texans and if the Rams keep losing then the Lions could look at Bryce Young.

But let me tell you if we walk away with Will Anderson out of Alabama that guy looks like a freakin terror
 

JMR

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As cool as Geno has been and he has been an awesome surprise if our actual goal is to be great and get back to the super bowl and win it then I dont think he is our guy. If our goal is to be competitive, make the playoffs and win a playoff game I think that would be his ceiling. Luckily the NFC is pretty thin with great QBs as the best QBs are more so in the AFC. CJ Stroud looks to be destined to go to the Texans and if the Rams keep losing then the Lions could look at Bryce Young.
A year ago, everyone was over the moon at the '23 QB draft class, but that seems backed off a bit now. I agree with you that Houston will be ahead of Denver's pick and will probably go with Stroud if they don't trade the pick (and if they do, that team presumably makes the move to get Stroud anyway). Let's say we are at 1.3 (from Denver) and didn't re-sign Geno or sign any of the other free agent QBs that are scheduled to be available. With Stroud off the board, what QB is worth that pick? I like Caleb Williams more than Bryce Young for sure, but he's only a true sophomore.

I agree that your best bet is to have a great QB, but you can't just go into the QB store and grab one of those off the shelves. Additionally, I've also seen guys like Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, Rex Grossman, Rich Gannon, Nick Foles, and Phil Simms play in Super Bowls. As it stands now, I don't see a realistic pathway to acquiring a great QB for the '23 season or even improving the position compared to what we have right now. Drafting a developmental player for the future is fine, but I don't think that's what you do with a top 5 pick.
But let me tell you if we walk away with Will Anderson out of Alabama that guy looks like a freakin terror
This is the direction we need to go. Maybe it's Will Anderson or a different name, but adding an "extra meeting" type talent on the DL is vital.
 
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Sharkonabicycle

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A year ago, everyone was over the moon at the '23 QB draft class, but that seems backed off a bit now. I agree with you that Houston will be ahead of Denver's pick and will probably go with Stroud if they don't trade the pick (and if they do, that team presumably makes the move to get Stroud anyway). Let's say we are at 1.3 (from Denver) and didn't re-sign Geno or sign any of the other free agent QBs that are scheduled to be available. With Stroud off the board, what QB is worth that pick? I like Caleb Williams more than Bryce Young for sure, but he's only a true sophomore.

I agree that your best bet is to have a great QB, but you can't just go into the QB store and grab one of those off the shelves. Additionally, I've also seen guys like Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, Rex Grossman, Rich Gannon, Nick Foles, and Phil Simms play in Super Bowls. As it stands now, I don't see a realistic pathway to acquiring a great QB for the '23 season or even improving the position compared to what we have right now. Drafting a developmental player for the future is fine, but I don't think that's what you do with a top 5 pick.

This is the direction we need to go. Maybe it's Will Anderson or a different name, but adding an "extra meeting" type talent on the DL is vital.

We need to address DL and ILB and EDGE (might be able to get away with EDGE but Mafe/Nwosu is really all we have, and Mafe is raw/developmental). Our defense just doesn't have any talent there. Brooks is fine, but whenever Barton is on the field for more than 40 snaps it's a huge liability. Our DL needs a replacement for Woods who is too old and Ford/Jefferson just don't seem to fit the scheme, because we're getting destroyed against the run this year which is also a fault of Barton (he's okay in coverage, but is not great against much else), and then EDGE will be needed unless Mafe continues development (he's very raw, so that was expected this year) because it looks like Taylor is just not the answer. Taylor was always a liability against the run but at least he could pass rush, but now he's not even doing that.

As for the offensive side of the ball, I'm fine resigning Smith but we desperately need a new Center. Blythe just can't run block.... he just can't.

I'd honestly be fine with EDGE, ILB, C, DL with our first 4 picks, trade down some for additional value as needed. If a QB is there and you really think that's the guy, then sure, fine..... but whether or not the one we want is there or Schneider likes those guys, is TBD. And then stop running that stupid ass 2 down lineman crap with Barton/Taylor on the field where teams are just like, "K, guess we're running lol. Audible it up."

Schneider liked Wilson (Wilson was still a great QB, he's just lost the athleticism and started acting entitled), and reportedly he wanted Allen/Mahomes. Assuming the later is true, that's a pretty damn good track record... so if true and Schneider likes a QB, I'll all for it... and then try to pick up some of those above holes in free agency.
 
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kcden

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I consider hitting on a generational-type QB equal to hitting the mega million, hitting on a decent franchise QB however is feasible to me. I hold the opinion that a lot of QBs bust because they land on bad teams with bad coaching staffs and few players with talent on the team. I doubt GMs let fear of failing to pick correctly be a factor while drafting. Certainly the later you pick a QB the odds of hitting get greater. Teams that have a need at QB now or the very near future spend expensive draft capital to move up the draft to where the Seahawks are to have better odds of hitting.

All positions are a crap shoot in the draft. All one has to do is look at the past drafts to verify that. The easiest positions to hit on are the positions you wait on to draft, say RB for example. The harder it is to hit on a position the earlier you want to have a shot to pick.
Were you pounding the table for us to take a QB this year with Denver's pick? If not, why not?
 

HaroldSeattle

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Were you pounding the table for us to take a QB this year with Denver's pick? If not, why not?
Nobody was, because it was considered a poor draft for QBs.
 

kcden

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Nobody was, because it was considered a poor draft for QBs.
We still had a Top 10 pick and a (perceived) MUCH greater need at the most important position on the field. Could have had the "best" one in the draft. Your stance this year seems to be that we MUST take a QB with that (similar) pick, even though it won't be the "best" in the draft. Seems a bit of a rigid take... I'd go with the best player they can get based on how John & Pete grade them.
 

MrS

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espn projection moved us up to the #2 slot with a drastically higher chance of a top 5 pick:

2. Seattle Seahawks (via 3-8 DEN)​

Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 84.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.1%

thats prime to pick a QB or cash in bigly with a trade down.
 

HaroldSeattle

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We still had a Top 10 pick and a (perceived) MUCH greater need at the most important position on the field. Could have had the "best" one in the draft. Your stance this year seems to be that we MUST take a QB with that (similar) pick, even though it won't be the "best" in the draft. Seems a bit of a rigid take... I'd go with the best player they can get based on how John & Pete grade them.
Maybe I am being rigid about it but for reasons:
1) QB is the most crucial position
2) Looks like a good QB class
3) This could be the only chance to have a shot at the cream at QB in a draft. Seahawks won't have that again short of an utter collapse. Top 10 misses out on including the cream of QBs because QBs go so early.

This being said, Seahawks have not drafted a QB in the 1st under Pete ever. If Pete decides to wait until the 2nd first or wait until the 2nd round, so be it. I'll assume it's for good reasons. I haven't really studied the college QBs yet. In general though, if you need a QB and you have a top 5 pick in a good QB class you should take a shot IMO.

Now I understand that the QB could be a bust no matter which round you pick, but the odds of hitting are better if you take on early rather than taking one late.
 

JMR

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2) Looks like a good QB class
Is it though? I don't think the pundits are in love with it right now as much as they were about a year ago. Houston is probably taking whatever QB is at the top of their board (most likely Stroud), and they are going to be picking ahead of us. When Stroud is gone, what QB do you think is worth our top pick?
 
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