The season so far

[Hit-n-Run]

You would think it's impossible for the team with the lowest ERA to be in last place nearly 1/4 into the season. Usually the teams with the best ERA's make the playoffs. This team is on pace to lose 96 games.

Sonny Gray is trending towards the guy New York fans remember. He has a 5+ ERA his last 5 starts. Sal Romano could have given them that for a lot less.

Some individual struggling hitters can be reasonably explained. Votto's age and back. Kemp injury history and past prime age. A few guys like Schebler and Barnhart that exceeded expectations early on, but were never projected to hit much in the Majors. But how do you explain nearly the entire team struggling?

 

[JohnU]

You would think it's impossible for the team with the lowest ERA to be in last place nearly 1/4 into the season. Usually the teams with the best ERA's make the playoffs. This team is on pace to lose 96 games.

Sonny Gray is trending towards the guy New York fans remember. He has a 5+ ERA his last 5 starts. Sal Romano could have given them that for a lot less.

Some individual struggling hitters can be reasonably explained. Votto's age and back. Kemp injury history and past prime age. A few guys like Schebler and Barnhart that exceeded expectations early on, but were never projected to hit much in the Majors. But how do you explain nearly the entire team struggling?

Votto is getting 5 plate appearances every game and is reaching base less than once a game. He should go on the DL with that back. They have patronized his past performance. Suarez is not a No. 3 hitter.
You can't go 11 innings without a run against the A's.
Honestly, we can just enjoy a few moments this year. I've lost interest already.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I feared the Reds pitching. The bullpen still looks leaky, but the SP have done surprisingly well so far. We’ll see how they do when they start reaching more than 130 innings- lots of young arms haven’t had many more than that in a season.

The offense has been tragic. When your best BA is below .250, it’s a bad sign. Votto historically is a 2nd half hitter, but he sure looks especially bad right now. Senzel has been a hitter, but he can’t carry a team. I look for Scooter to be traded shortly after he’s healthy unfortunately. Peraza looks like he’s taken a step back, as did Schebler. I can’t figure Winker out- he’s opposite what I expected- went from good contact and low power to HR or nothing.

Gotta wonder how the new hitting coach is going to last with so many underperforming hitters- I’m not blaming him, but front offices usually do.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'd agree Votto has had some great second halves, but last year wasn't a great 1st or second half. A lot of people thought Votto had an off year in 2018. I think it's the beginning of a trend.

I'd say Peraza has regressed the most. He began to show a little more strike zone discipline last season, but now he's back to swinging at everything. Why throw a strike if he'll swing at balls.

Good point on Winker. He's gone from a patient line drive machine to a homer or bust clone. Jay Bruce did the same thing. The early scouting reports on Jay Bruce said he would hit for average. Then he fell in love with trying to hit flyball home runs and we know the rest of the story.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Maybe it's that a .230 hitter with 30 HR makes more money than a .290 hitter with 18 HR. Also, you only need to rely on 1 guy for a HR. Need to be stronger as a hitter for the HR, but arguably, you don't have to be any smarter, especially as a manager or basecoach. Scoring with HR is easier, in that regard, even if it happens less frequently.

Best teams in my memory all pitched well, played solid D, manufactured runs to win close games, and blew teams out when they hit some HR. Parks were bigger and mounds were higher then though, especially before the DH. I think 2 decades of PEDS, smaller parks, the DH, Video game and TV exposure, the HR derby, and MUCH bigger contracts kind of helped players, managers, coaches and scouts to be more single minded- looking for power for hitters (and pitchers) above all other skills. Generally now, hitters aren't asked to see many pitches, hit behind the runner, sac fly, or God forbid, they expect them (even a pitcher) to get a bunt down. Opposition isn't blind or stupid- they pitch more breaking balls, and play shifts that hitters stubbornly refuse to acknowledge. I don't think it's improved the game.

I still believe the more baserunners you have, the more opportunities you have to score. K's never advance a runner. Almost every hitter has terrible BB:K ratios now, and I don't believe it's because the pitching is better- more than half of missed swings are out of the zone. I don't think the Reds aren't hitting enough HR , I think there aren't enough runners on when they hit them. I think they believe they can't score without a HR.

 

[JohnU]

The so called 3rd time through the order seems to be something Bell worries about but other teams aren't. Reds get 3 runs in the first inning and 3 hits the rest of the way. Can't have Peraza and Votto back to back generating an offense where one is looking for a walk he isn't going to get and the other isn't trying to get a walk no matter how bad the pitches.

The batted balls in play ratio for this team is a joke.

I liked it when Senzel gave the ump some lip on that shitty strike 3. He's going to get respect for knowing the zone if he's clear he knows what it is.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The 3rd time through the order thing has been gaining traction for a few years now. Not every pitcher falls victim to it, but there are a lot of guys that do. As for the Reds.... the NL average for SP pitches per game is 90. The Reds SP average 90 pitches per start. The NL average for SP innings per start is 5.4 and the Reds average 5.4. I'd say David Bells handling of the rotation is NL average.

The Babip stat tends to illustrate whether a player has been lucky or unlucky in his batted balls. It can be misleading in smaller sample sizes. Derek Dietrich has 19 hits this season, but 10 are home runs. Home runs aren't included in Babip. It all goes to the point 1507 made.... this team hits enough home runs, but they don't get on base nearly enough.

You see a lot of lip service by a lot of batters this year. The Umps have been tolerant of it for the most part. Makes me think the Umps know their strike zone sucks.

 

[JohnU]

The intent to provide exit velocity to launch angle has turned pitchers into sinker-ballers. We aren't going to get a lot of base hits through the shift and the Reds runners aren't fast enough to leg 'em out or turn bloopers into doubles. Of course, once they get to 2nd base, they can always try to steal third with 2 out. Who the fuck ever coached that?

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think the more they change the game, the worse it is.

I don’t think they need more rules, just need to enforce the ones they have.

MLB keeps harping on length of game, and enhancing fan experience, but lots of contradictions exist. Limiting mound visits, pitch clocks, and considering placing a runner at 2b in extra innings vs. multiple call reviews, letting hitters step out and adjust every pitch. They haven’t called the actual strike zone for 3 decades. They warn both teams when someone gets thrown inside, but they don’t stop players celebrating like it’s a walk off series play at every opportunity. They don’t want pitchers throwing purpose pitches, but hitters are allowed to hang over the plate in those short parks, and in half the games, pitchers don’t go to the plate themselves.

Players bitch about collusion on free agents and holding rookies back to delay their contract clocks, but no agent will discuss players that don’t hit their weight or can’t throw a strike with 5 years left on a guaranteed contract. Owners are greedy bad people if they make money, but players are exploited at 500k minimum salary and no payroll cap. The price of baseball skyrockets...Meanwhile, 6 big markets scalp best talent and contend yearly while 20 lesser markets vie with each other for a playoff spot or two (mostly 1 game play-ins). Players jump teams yearly, and no one can understand why fans don’t have team loyalty anymore.

I don’t want to hear Iglesias excuse not getting outs on being asked to pitch in non-save situations, or Gray blaming his Yankees bloated ERA on forced pitch selection...especially while he’s not exactly a top pitcher this season pitching what he wants with a new team. I don’t like the Reds paying tens of millions in eaten contracts for players they trade for nothing or release, and plead poor when they can’t sell 25,000 fans a game. Sorry, I’m not a huge fan of outfielders so inept pitchers have to be defensive replacements, especially when the OF is hitting 50 points less than the pitcher.

Sorry for the rant.

 

[Redsfan1507]

On the other hand, Dietrich appears to enjoy his job.

 

[Redsfan1507]

...and the guy killing Jeopardy is going to get an offer by Billy Beane to join the A’s front office.

 

[Redsfan1507]

..and they say Trump is incompetent, dems have 20 (incompetent) candidates to run against him, and Selig got to name Manfred as his replacement, and no one bitched or tried to impeach him.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Hmmm.

 

[JohnU]

Selig at least was honest. He was trying to turn a profit.

 

[eburg5000]

I think the more they change the game, the worse it is.

I COULDN'T AGREE MORE

 

[Redsfan1507]

3-3 on a west coast trip would be a good thing for the Reds, usually...but considering it was against 2 bad teams in the Bay, one of which was a no-no against an underwhelming dude with a 5.00 plus ERA, has me wondering...

Cubs are heating up just in time for the Reds homestand. Half the (probably small) crowd may be blue.

I saw the Twins lowered tickets to $5 and sold 20k in 24 hrs. Maybe the Reds should try that.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Still early, but just thinking about the roster changes from last year and trying to see why the math hasn’t changed that much- in last place on pace for 71 wins.

Reds didn’t lose much other than lots of money (and Homer)in the LA trade, but basically they only have an underperforming expiring contracted Puig, and bench player Farmer so far, on the plus side of the deal.

Iglesias has done a fine fill in job that may be more permanent than first thought at SS, ditto Dietrich. Roark and Gray have been what I expected- innings but not many wins... other than them aren’t all the other “additions” returning injured or Reds products ?

Starting pitching is better than I expected, but lots of arms without a history of Innings past about half a season...

Peraza, Votto and Schebler have been biggest disappointments for me, offensively...no one has come close to picking up all that slack. Scooter’s injury has hurt the offense, but Senzel brings longer term optimism.

 

[JohnU]

I can't see the Reds going after an extension for J. Iglesias unless it's cheep-cheep-cheep. He is a more valuable trade chip at the deadline. The farm system infield versatility doesn't compel keeping him over the winter.

I think Peraza's numbers will move up but he needs to show he belongs in the lineup, not hitting 9th.

Puig's numbers reflect his career. He's an enormous talent with major flaws in his swing.

The pitching is a mirage. Reds only played 10 games at home, the rest in airports.

 

[eburg5000]

The Reds have spent a lot of time out on the west coast, I think at least 12 games and they still have to play AZ, the Angles and Seattle, I'm not a late night person anymore so those are all game I don't watch, and I am not interested enough to record them.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Hard to believe the Reds first walk off win came in their 43rd game. As bad as the offense has been..... I guess it's not all that hard to believe.

I quit watching after the 6th inning. Figures they rally and win after I quit watching. I might try that strategy more often, but much earlier in the game. Watching this team flounder offensively wears me out.