The PAC12 THREAD v.2

[4down20]

not debating your team has good quality games...but lets not act like the SEC doesn't have several colorado caliber type teams. arkansas, miss st, vanderbilt, tennessee, etc....the #8 pac 12 team played the team that represented SEC in championship game and it was a 7 point game. washington st qb threw for nearly 400 yards against another "great" sec defense....thats more than aj threw in their game. seems to me a more mid level team like arizona st would have beat them at home. but again you have poor teams in your conference lets not act like every game is a grudge match..your team coasted for 7 straight weeks after playing texas a&m last season.

Those teams are not Colorado caliber or even close to being that bad. It's somewhat funny that here we are talking about adding SEC games, when the teams you mention would in some cases be pretty decent/above average teams in other conferences.

Auburn has never been about defense and likely never will. So claiming they are "another great sec defense" is absurd.

Arizona St hasn't really been mid level lately IMO.

And I'm the first to point out Alabama's schedule has been weak the past 2 years, but that's not hardly the entire SEC.

 

[4down20]

You're the one who brought up PAC teams playing Colorado . I'm just pointing out that while you brag about the big bad SEC. Colorado has won a NC more recently than a big chuck of your SEC teams.

Except as I have already pointed out, you are wrong an stuck, on top of you are talking about a teams strength 25 years ago as if it even remotely has relevance today.

But since you want to count the number of National Champions since 1990 on the schedules, Alabama plays 4 such teams next year. How about USC? Any beyond Colorado?

 

[TexasExes98]

Those teams are not Colorado caliber or even close to being that bad. It's somewhat funny that here we are talking about adding SEC games, when the teams you mention would in some cases be pretty decent/above average teams in other conferences.

Auburn has never been about defense and likely never will. So claiming they are "another great sec defense" is absurd.

Arizona St hasn't really been mid level lately IMO.

And I'm the first to point out Alabama's schedule has been weak the past 2 years, but that's not hardly the entire SEC.

 

[7Samurai13]

Those teams are not Colorado caliber or even close to being that bad. It's somewhat funny that here we are talking about adding SEC games, when the teams you mention would in some cases be pretty decent/above average teams in other conferences.

Auburn has never been about defense and likely never will. So claiming they are "another great sec defense" is absurd.

Arizona St hasn't really been mid level lately IMO.

And I'm the first to point out Alabama's schedule has been weak the past 2 years, but that's not hardly the entire SEC.

Arizona State's last year was the only good year in the past 6 years. 8-5, 6-7, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7 are what ASU's records were for the previous 5 seasons. That's barely mid-tier if I ever saw it.

Many in the SEC have pretty weak schedules. But most teams in most conferences have weak schedules. Hopefully the new committee can put some weight on OOC SoS to push the envelope and get better games.

 

[4down20]

Arizona State's last year was the only good year in the past 6 years. 8-5, 6-7, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7 are what ASU's records were for the previous 5 seasons. That's barely mid-tier if I ever saw it.

Many in the SEC have pretty weak schedules. But most teams in most conferences have weak schedules. Hopefully the new committee can put some weight on OOC SoS to push the envelope and get better games.

ASU has been better lately and playing in the 2nd best conference. Yes, only lately though. If we are going to go back over seasons, then Arkansas is a top tier team.

As I pointed out earlier. I have 10 of the 14 SEC teams in the top25 for SoS.

The 4 that have weaker schedules are: Alabama, LSU, Vandy and Kentucky.

 

[7Samurai13]

ASU has been better lately and playing in the 2nd best conference. Yes, only lately though. If we are going to go back over seasons, then Arkansas is a top tier team.

As I pointed out earlier. I have 10 of the 14 SEC teams in the top25 for SoS.

The 4 that have weaker schedules are: Alabama, LSU, Vandy and Kentucky.

If we are going to be going by one season then Duke is a top tier team in the ACC and Florida is a FCS school.

 

[outofyourmind]

ASU has been better lately and playing in the 2nd best conference. Yes, only lately though. If we are going to go back over seasons, then Arkansas is a top tier team.

As I pointed out earlier. I have 10 of the 14 SEC teams in the top25 for SoS.

The 4 that have weaker schedules are: Alabama, LSU, Vandy and Kentucky.

Can you give us some basics on how you construct that SOS analysis.

 

[TexasExes98]

Those teams are not Colorado caliber or even close to being that bad. It's somewhat funny that here we are talking about adding SEC games, when the teams you mention would in some cases be pretty decent/above average teams in other conferences.

Auburn has never been about defense and likely never will. So claiming they are "another great sec defense" is absurd.

Arizona St hasn't really been mid level lately IMO.

And I'm the first to point out Alabama's schedule has been weak the past 2 years, but that's not hardly the entire SEC.

Pure speculation on your part, but what is fact is that former, weak Big 12 teams can immediately compete for the SEC CCG and immediately be pretty decent/above average teams in the SEC after being punching bags in the Big 12. That we know for sure....

 

[7Samurai13]

Can you give us some basics on how you construct that SOS analysis.

You're in the SEC, +100 points on a 100 point scale.

 

[7Samurai13]

Pure speculation on your part, but what is fact is that former, weak Big 12 teams can immediately compete for the SEC CCG and immediately be pretty decent/above average teams in the SEC after being punching bags in the Big 12. That we know for sure....

Come on, everyone knows that Kentucky would be competing for national titles if they were in any other conference.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Arizona St hasn't really been mid level lately IMO.

And I'm the first to point out Alabama's schedule has been weak the past 2 years, but that's not hardly the entire SEC.

Truth on both points here.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Come on, everyone knows that Kentucky would be competing for national titles if they were in any other conference.

You got it wrong, you mean if Kansas went to the SEC they would be a 9 or 10 win team playing in SEC title games.

 

[4down20]

If we are going to be going by one season then Duke is a top tier team in the ACC and Florida is a FCS school.

They were last year.

We can say we think teams will get better or not maintain, but that's about it.

 

[4down20]

Can you give us some basics on how you construct that SOS analysis.

Sure.

1st thing is done is I take all the stats from all games last year(or will be this year after 5 FBS games are on the schedule for the team).

From these stats, they are adjusted into stats that have more meaning. IE: Rushing for 500 yards again the countries worst rush defense isn't the same value as rushing against the #1 rushing defense. This is done in rushing, passing offenses and defenses.

Predictions are then made for each team against every other FBS school, and you get an overall % of expected wins. That becomes a power score for the team. A team like FSU last year had a power score of 100, which is to say they were the team favored against all other teams. And no, it did not predict Oklahoma to beat Alabama. Nor would it in a rematch, nor would Vegas.

From that point, it's pretty much just an average power score of the teams they will play. FCS teams count as 0 power by default and hurt a teams SoS.

How many conference games a team has doesn't mean anything here.

 

[4down20]

Pure speculation on your part, but what is fact is that former, weak Big 12 teams can immediately compete for the SEC CCG and immediately be pretty decent/above average teams in the SEC after being punching bags in the Big 12. That we know for sure....

Missouri:

2010: 10-2
2011: 8-4 (3 conference losses, 4th was to ASU)

Texas:
2010: 5-7
2011: 7-5

 

[outofyourmind]

Sure.

1st thing is done is I take all the stats from all games last year(or will be this year after 5 FBS games are on the schedule for the team).

From these stats, they are adjusted into stats that have more meaning. IE: Rushing for 500 yards again the countries worst rush defense isn't the same value as rushing against the #1 rushing defense. This is done in rushing, passing offenses and defenses.

Predictions are then made for each team against every other FBS school, and you get an overall % of expected wins. That becomes a power score for the team. A team like FSU last year had a power score of 100, which is to say they were the team favored against all other teams. And no, it did not predict Oklahoma to beat Alabama. Nor would it in a rematch, nor would Vegas.

From that point, it's pretty much just an average power score of the teams they will play. FCS teams count as 0 power by default and hurt a teams SoS.

How many conference games a team has doesn't mean anything here.

ok, got it.
I didn't think you did the standard W/L bullshit thing.
Do you tweak it from year to year at all.

 

[TexasExes98]

Missouri:

2010: 10-2
2011: 8-4 (3 conference losses, 4th was to ASU)

Texas:
2010: 5-7
2011: 7-5

It took MIZZWHO 11 years to play in their 1st Big 12 CCG; It only took MIZZWHO their 2nd year to play in their 1st SECCG. Not really sure what 2010 or Texas's record has to do with a middle of the pack former punching bag Big 12 team almost winning the SEC in their 2nd year. You sure as hell love to get off subject when you're trying to save face....

 

[4down20]

ok, got it.
I didn't think you did the standard W/L bullshit thing.
Do you tweak it from year to year at all.

The SoS formula itself pretty much never changes. I do try to improve the prediction model, and that can affect the SoS as it can affect the power.

 

[4down20]

It took MIZZWHO 11 years to play in their 1st Big 12 CCG; It only took MIZZWHO their 2nd year to play in their 1st SECCG. Not really sure what 2010 or Texas's record has to do with a middle of the pack former punching bag Big 12 team almost winning the SEC in their 2nd year. You sure as hell love to get off subject when you're trying to save face....

I see, you believe that what a team did 11 years ago is more important than the 2(even more if I had wanted to go back further) years before the event we are talking about.

Excellent logic and thinking sir!

 

[TexasExes98]

I see, you believe that what a team did 11 years ago is more important than the 2(even more if I had wanted to go back further) years before the event we are talking about.

Excellent logic and thinking sir!

Ha ha I see you apparently believe CFB began in 2010. You basically said some middle of the road SEC teams would be decent to pretty good in other conferences when there is absolutely zero proof to that, on the other hand, it's already proven that 2 middle of the road Big 12 teams can immediately be decent to pretty good in the SEC.