The NL is going to be a bitch next year

[msgkings322]

The fun part, after the transactions are all done, is not just picking winners, but picking which team will do way better than expected and which way worse. Always have one or two of each.

Last year obviously the overachievers were the Twins and Astros, kinda sorta the Mets. The unexpected busts were the Padres and White Sox. I'm not ready to pick mine but I will later on, will do a thread

 

[anotheridiot]

Have been a cub fan probably longer than most, 40 some years when I can remember. I dont see what changed the thought process. Yes 97 wins overachieved, but remember Lackey pitched for a contract last year, he only made 500k with the cardinals. I dont think sophomore slumps will hit every one of Schwarber, Bryant, Soler and Russell, but now theres a guy that might have a better year than those big three, but also might not. That has an effect on some players like bryant while filing a grievance to get out and paid a year early.

I put alot into contract years and now the cubs are willing to put two big dollar guys on that position player list and some of these guys making minimums might just not take it well. Zobrist got three years of no trade, tired of being the most moved guy, Lackey also has no trade rights, you never know how the nucleus is gonna take the big dollar players. Zobrist is fine, big leader, big professional, dont know about heyward.

I mean we have been told that 2016 was the timetable to sniff the playoffs, now guys like Baez are still out of a job and Almora and McKinney are scratching their heads too. We had no choice but to buy pitching, but buying the position players too kinda makes me think they are veering off the course a little.

 

[msgkings322]

Have been a cub fan probably longer than most, 40 some years when I can remember. I dont see what changed the thought process. Yes 97 wins overachieved, but remember Lackey pitched for a contract last year, he only made 500k with the cardinals. I dont think sophomore slumps will hit every one of Schwarber, Bryant, Soler and Russell, but now theres a guy that might have a better year than those big three, but also might not. That has an effect on some players like bryant while filing a grievance to get out and paid a year early.

I put alot into contract years and now the cubs are willing to put two big dollar guys on that position player list and some of these guys making minimums might just not take it well. Zobrist got three years of no trade, tired of being the most moved guy, Lackey also has no trade rights, you never know how the nucleus is gonna take the big dollar players. Zobrist is fine, big leader, big professional, dont know about heyward.

I mean we have been told that 2016 was the timetable to sniff the playoffs, now guys like Baez are still out of a job and Almora and McKinney are scratching their heads too. We had no choice but to buy pitching, but buying the position players too kinda makes me think they are veering off the course a little.

I get that being a Cub fan is about always looking for what can go wrong, but to wring your hands like this after these moves is kind of weak. You guys were very good and just got better. Stop concern trolling.

 

[Clayton]

Have been a cub fan probably longer than most, 40 some years when I can remember. I dont see what changed the thought process. Yes 97 wins overachieved, but remember Lackey pitched for a contract last year, he only made 500k with the cardinals. I dont think sophomore slumps will hit every one of Schwarber, Bryant, Soler and Russell, but now theres a guy that might have a better year than those big three, but also might not. That has an effect on some players like bryant while filing a grievance to get out and paid a year early.

I put alot into contract years and now the cubs are willing to put two big dollar guys on that position player list and some of these guys making minimums might just not take it well. Zobrist got three years of no trade, tired of being the most moved guy, Lackey also has no trade rights, you never know how the nucleus is gonna take the big dollar players. Zobrist is fine, big leader, big professional, dont know about heyward.

You are looking at a lot of this in a vacuum, though. You guys just grabbed the top positional player and probably the 3rd best starting pitcher from the perennial divisional competition.

Sophomore slump isn't a real concern. Having young talent is the ideal scenario and a blessing. Certainly the Cardinals could get a 'sophomore slump' from Carlos Martinez or Piscotty or Grichuk but you worries are in the wrong spot. Cards need to get prime years from Wainwright, Holliday and Molina and likely they'll suffer from real regression from the thing that always causes regression - age. Cubs really only have to worry about regression from Zobrist who they quite frankly dont need at all and Lackey...which is actually more than likely going to happen.

The reality is that the Cubs are going to have 3-6 players on their roster who are going to be better that what they were last year. The only chance most other teams have is if Arrieta regresses or Heyward regresses and the rest of the team continues to struggle with high heat. Granted, probably only a couple of teams can actually put enough high heat pitchers into play so that might not even be an issue.

 

[Bolts]

Even more of a bitch now. Why couldn't someone else have signed him!

 

[Clayton]

Why couldn't someone else have signed him!

I can tell you why the Cardinals didn't sign him but thats about it. I honestly think that money is going to be a sunk cost in about 3 years

 

[dredinis21]

I can tell you why the Cardinals didn't sign him but thats about it. I honestly think that money is going to be a sunk cost in about 3 years

The player opt out clause after 2 years has me rooting for him to pitch lights out so he opts out.

 

[Bolts]

I can tell you why the Cardinals didn't sign him but thats about it. I honestly think that money is going to be a sunk cost in about 3 years

They're probably hoping he'll opt out after the 2nd year, and unless he's dominate in those years and thinks he could get more then I don't see it happening.

 

[calsnowskier]

I actually doubt he will opt out, regardless. Have you looked at the 17/18 FA class?

 

[Clayton]

I actually doubt he will opt out, regardless. Have you looked at the 17/18 FA class?

Yeah, its very hard to see him opting out.

It is weird for a pitcher to get moved around like he has. From a tiny park in CIN to big parks in KC and SF.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

That SF rotation looks good now.

Greinke - Bumgarner
Miller - Cueto
Corbin - Samardzija

Your move, LA.

 

[calsnowskier]

That SF rotation looks good now.

Greinke - Bumgarner
Miller - Cueto
Corbin - Samardzija

Your move, LA.

They HAVE to get Leake now, right?

 

[CitySushi]

That SF rotation looks good now.

Greinke - Bumgarner
Miller - Cueto
Corbin - Samardzija

Your move, LA.

If Matt Cain proves he's not dead, then whoaaaa.....

 

[calsnowskier]

That SF rotation looks good now.

Greinke - Bumgarner
Miller - Cueto
Corbin - Samardzija

Your move, LA.

Bum/Greinke - Two HOF level pitchers. GREAT matchup. Slight Edge: Zona
Cueto/Miller - Cueto has the better track record. Both struggled in the second half of '15. Edge: Giants
Samardzija/Corbin - Another interesting matchup. Scrabble had a disastrous '15, but reportedly found the mechanical flaw late in the season and his last few starts were strong. Corbin is the young-gun on the rise. Edge: Giants (biased?)

 

[Arizona_Sting]

They HAVE to get Leake now, right?

Leake still wants to take a discount and sign with AZ, but if that doesn't happen I could see him forcing LA to overpay for him.

I think Kazmir, Chen or Leake have to be one of the three they sign, as they're the best 3 left on the market. Maybe they look to the trade market, but the prices for SP's are soaring right now. SF and AZ almost teamed up and put LA in a very shitty position. Stole Greinke, Cueto, Shark and Miller from them… all 4 were LA targets I believe.

 

[calsnowskier]

If Matt Cain proves he's not dead, then whoaaaa.....

The fan in me is very excited about his last start in '15. There are legit arguments to be made that he could be a monster in '16.

The realist in me is waiting to see something before I expect anything.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Bum/Greinke - Two HOF level pitchers. GREAT matchup. Slight Edge: Zona
Cueto/Miller - Cueto has the better track record. Both struggled in the second half of '15. Edge: Giants
Samardzija/Corbin - Another interesting matchup. Scrabble had a disastrous '15, but reportedly found the mechanical flaw late in the season and his last few starts were strong. Corbin is the young-gun on the rise. Edge: Giants (biased?)

I'd say:

Greinke-Bum- Slight edge AZ, two of the best SP's in baseball.
Cueto-Miller- Edge to SF, Miller has potential but Cueto has proven it for years now.
Corbin-Shark- Slight edge to AZ, Corbin has some nasty stuff and looked 100% when he returned last year. Samardizja did have nearly a 5.00 ERA so it's tough for me to put him over Corbin, but I know that he's a much better pitcher than that. I'm really high on Corbin, think he has one of the best sliders in baseball.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd say:

Greinke-Bum- Slight edge AZ, two of the best SP's in baseball.
Cueto-Miller- Edge to SF, Miller has potential but Cueto has proven it for years now.
Corbin-Shark- Slight edge to AZ, Corbin has some nasty stuff and looked 100% when he returned last year. Samardizja did have nearly a 5.00 ERA so it's tough for me to put him over Corbin, but I know that he's a much better pitcher than that. I'm really high on Corbin, think he has one of the best sliders in baseball.

I will add that LONG TERM, BIG edge to Arizona. Miller is on the rise. Cueto, long term, is more of a question mark.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

I will add that LONG TERM, BIG edge to Arizona. Miller is on the rise. Cueto, long term, is more of a question mark.

Yeah, true. I was mainly talking about for next year as both teams will be in contention for the playoffs most likely. Long term I like Miller more for obvious reasons (age gap, less innings on his arm)

 

[calsnowskier]

Yeah, true. I was mainly talking about for next year as both teams will be in contention for the playoffs most likely. Long term I like Miller more for obvious reasons (age gap, less innings on his arm)

Less $$$

My initial comparison was based on 2016 only as well. I was just expanding to make a point.

Expanding further, Big edge to the Giants in Bum/Greinke and edge Arizona in Corbin/Scrabble.