4 games in, time to choose: who are the surprise teams going to be this year?

[msgkings322]

Niners might need to be added to the 'bad surprise' list, the tough part of their schedule is still to come.

Is it too soon to call the Broncos surprisingly good?

 

[Shanemansj13]

Every year a couple teams that are supposed to be good are bad instead, and every year a couple are the opposite, teams that make the playoffs that are surprising etc. Often injuries are part of this.

4 games is enough to speculate (this isn't curing cancer here just sports chatter), we see how the teams look.

Better than expected: Vikings, Commanders (maybe Steelers?)

Worse than expected: Dolphins, Bengals (maybe Browns and/or Jaguars?)

What are your picks?

These are easy.

Better: Vikings and Commanders

Worst: Browns

I thought Jayden would be a baller but what he is doing in his rookie year is amazing and they have a solid team around him with some good pieces. The scary thing is they can do a lot better building around him and he is already playing so well. The kid just gets it. You can't teach the type of talent he already has.
Darnold has been a revelation and their defense is one of the best in the NFL.

The Browns suck. Watson sucks. The new scheme is a terribly, failed experiment that won't end anytime soon. The offense is easily the worst in the NFL too

 

[Moab]

The Vikings are the surprise to me. They went out and signed a bunch of free agents for their D and those guys are playing their butts off. None of them are what you'd consider big splash signings, but they all play hard and do their job. It's amazing that none are big name guys, just guys that probably understand the scheme, their job and play together to get the job done. I honestly don't hate that...

 

[msgkings322]

These are easy.

Better: Vikings and Commanders

Worst: Browns

I thought Jayden would be a baller but what he is doing in his rookie year is amazing and they have a solid team around him with some good pieces. The scary thing is they can do a lot better building around him and he is already playing so well. The kid just gets it. You can't teach the type of talent he already has.
Darnold has been a revelation and their defense is one of the best in the NFL.

The Browns suck. Watson sucks. The new scheme is a terribly, failed experiment that won't end anytime soon. The offense is easily the worst in the NFL too

Yeah I agree with all 3 of these. Are the Bengals and Jags also worse than expected?

 

[ducky]

The Vikings are the surprise to me. They went out and signed a bunch of free agents for their D and those guys are playing their butts off. None of them are what you'd consider big splash signings, but they all play hard and do their job. It's amazing that none are big name guys, just guys that probably understand the scheme, their job and play together to get the job done. I honestly don't hate that...

Our General Manager has been under fire because his drafts have not been good.

But he has absolutely knocked it out of the park when signing low value free agents. It literally is nutty at how good he has been at it. He hardly has missed at all and the bang we get for the buck has been incredible.

Defensive starters
Harrison Phillips.
Blake Cashman
Jonathan Greenard
Andre Van Ginkel
Stephon Gilmore
Shaquill Griffin
Byron Murphy

1 DT, 2 Edge defenders, a MLB, and the top 3 CB's on our defense.
All in free agency for what has been one of the better defenses in the league. And all for not a ton of money (not cheap....but not super expensive).

You throw Aaron Jones and Sam Darnold into that mix and that is 9 starters on bargain free agent contracts for a 5-0 team. And there are other non-starters that have contributed too.

Long and short they have figured out the FA market possibly better than any other team in the league. It really is what is going to save his job. Because his draft history is....um....spotty to say the least. Definitely something he needs to get better with. But if he can continue to fill out the roster

 

[Clayton]

Our General Manager has been under fire because his drafts have not been good.

But he has absolutely knocked it out of the park when signing low value free agents. It literally is nutty at how good he has been at it. He hardly has missed at all and the bang we get for the buck has been incredible.

Defensive starters
Harrison Phillips.
Blake Cashman
Jonathan Greenard
Andre Van Ginkel
Stephon Gilmore
Shaquill Griffin
Byron Murphy

1 DT, 2 Edge defenders, a MLB, and the top 3 CB's on our defense.
All in free agency for what has been one of the better defenses in the league. And all for not a ton of money (not cheap....but not super expensive).

You throw Aaron Jones and Sam Darnold into that mix and that is 9 starters on bargain free agent contracts for a 5-0 team. And there are other non-starters that have contributed too.

Long and short they have figured out the FA market possibly better than any other team in the league. It really is what is going to save his job. Because his draft history is....um....spotty to say the least. Definitely something he needs to get better with. But if he can continue to fill out the roster

If he is that good with making moves and that bad at making picks then he sounds like he should be a member of the 'f them picks' club.

 

[ducky]

If he is that good with making moves and that bad at making picks then he sounds like he should be a member of the 'f them picks' club.

Well he kind of is in that club to a certain extent. We are missing our 3rd and 4th picks plus some later picks in the draft too already.

 

[Clayton]

Niners might need to be added to the 'bad surprise' list, the tough part of their schedule is still to come.

Is it too soon to call the Broncos surprisingly good?

If the Niners lose next week then I think they're in serious trouble. 2-4 overall and 0-3 in division would be bad. If they beat Seattle then I think they're still in a decent spot because I dont really think the Cardinals are going to win the division and the Rams are dependent on some players getting and staying healthy.

Broncos being alright seems...right? Maybe if they win more than 9 games this year that would be a surprise. Sean Payton has a reputation, they have a defense, and they drafted an old QB.

 

[msgkings322]

If the Niners lose next week then I think they're in serious trouble. 2-4 overall and 0-3 in division would be bad. If they beat Seattle then I think they're still in a decent spot because I dont really think the Cardinals are going to win the division and the Rams are dependent on some players getting and staying healthy.

Backing in to winning a crappy division is still a big step down from SB favorites like many considered them. And as I said this is the easy part of their schedule where they should be at least 3-2 and really 4-1

Broncos being alright seems...right? Maybe if they win more than 9 games this year that would be a surprise. Sean Payton has a reputation, they have a defense, and they drafted an old QB.

Right, 3-2 is a start but they don't look obviously good the way Washington and Minnesota do

 

[Moab]

Our General Manager has been under fire because his drafts have not been good.

But he has absolutely knocked it out of the park when signing low value free agents. It literally is nutty at how good he has been at it. He hardly has missed at all and the bang we get for the buck has been incredible.

Defensive starters
Harrison Phillips.
Blake Cashman
Jonathan Greenard
Andre Van Ginkel
Stephon Gilmore
Shaquill Griffin
Byron Murphy

1 DT, 2 Edge defenders, a MLB, and the top 3 CB's on our defense.
All in free agency for what has been one of the better defenses in the league. And all for not a ton of money (not cheap....but not super expensive).

You throw Aaron Jones and Sam Darnold into that mix and that is 9 starters on bargain free agent contracts for a 5-0 team. And there are other non-starters that have contributed too.

Long and short they have figured out the FA market possibly better than any other team in the league. It really is what is going to save his job. Because his draft history is....um....spotty to say the least. Definitely something he needs to get better with. But if he can continue to fill out the roster

It's interesting to me that for the most part the guys signed were starters that other teams wanted to replace, back ups that got reps and in some cases moved into a starting role when injuries forced that situation. To me, that states that these guys get the reality of the NFL, you're only as good as your tape. Buy in and availability are extremely important skills to have, sometimes even more than talent. I'm sure they looked at the talent in front of them and saw the pitfalls that some of those guys in front of them had or fell into and are not interested in that nonsense, so they're working their asses off to be included and earn their pay.

As far as drafts go, it's really kind of a crap shoot no matter how you look at it. I think scouting is very much an art as opposed to a science. GMs and scouts love measurables, coaches love production. So those things are kind of at odds for the draft depending on where the scouts, GM and coaches are coming from. It's not even a 50/50 proposition if you're looking for long term solutions as I'd guess, and didn't look, that less than 50% of most teams draft picks are still with that team after year 3 or 4. There are just too many things that you can't measure to make it some kind of science, so a system of who knows what and luck are what's needed to really hit it in the draft. That's why I personally pay no attention to the draft gurus in the media or here. You just don't know for sure and the professional have shown us that time and again. Read the posts on this board, guys on here post all the time "bust" "stud" and all kinds of stuff like they're a guru, but none of them are paid a cent by any NFL team.