flyerhawk
Well-Known Member
Incoming (somewhat) objective stance on Lonzo and Simmons.
I'll start with the easiest part, rebounding. I'm not disputing how great Lonzo has been on the boards, but you have to look at how he gets them. Lonzo isn't exactly banging inside and ripping them down. He's getting all the long rebounds and weakside rebounds as he should, being 6'7". You look at how Russell Westbrook got all his rebounds last year and it's similar. His teammates are doing the dirty work of boxing out and Lonzo is able to go in to grab the boards. That's not to say what he's doing isn't valuable, but saying Simmons should out rebound Lonzo is not a good argument. Hell Curry out-rebounded Draymond in the Finals last year, but that doesn't mean Curry was more of a rebounding force than Draymond.
Scoring wise, both will always have their issues unless they're able to develop reliable jumpshots. However, the one thing that works in Simmons favor is positional versatility. Because he's able to play the PF position he can be both at the same time. That means he'll have the added bonus of being guarded many times by a slower defender and has more ways to generate offense for himself. Lonzo won't have the same opportunity being guarded by quicker opponents. He's not the most explosive athlete to begin with so an outside shot for him is more imperative, IMO.
Comparing shooting percentages to these two players is ridiculous. Lonzo's looks are more perimeter oriented(as they should be) and Simmons is more midrange and in (again as it should be). What would be a much more telling statistic is the QUALITY of their looks. You want efficiency. Lonzo is shooting 5.3 3pt attempts per game at a 28% clip. That's pretty bad any way you look at it.
Simmons is doing exactly what he needs to do. Shooting a high percentage with quality looks. Lonzo is shooting a lesser percentage from non quality looks. The reason they are non-quality is because of volume and result. If you're not a good 3 point shooter, you should not be taking that many per game. Lonzo has elite size at his position and could find many other ways to be productive in scoring the ball.
This is a great post. Spot on.
Simmons has an early on advantage because he's a 6'10" ball handler with a power forward physique. So teams can't just ignore him because he can drive to the hoop for high percentage shots. Ball simply can't do that. He's not quick enough or big enough to ever be a guy that make his living driving on the net.
But as they develop the outside is going to be more important for both of them. If neither can develop an effective outside shot they will never be more than good players. IMO, Simmons probably doesn't need to develop a good 3 point shot whereas Ball probably does.
There is no reason to think that Ball and Simmons can't develop a good outside shot. But it takes time in the NBA because nothing is free. Every shot is contested.