The I know its too early but can't wait......

[Sam Sportboy]

...........thread of helpful and not so helpful observaitons........please feel free to add as we get closer to your draft! First off, Stevan Ridley ran for 1263 yards and 12 TD's last year. Pretty damn good season for a RB that is on a "pass first" team right? Did you know that of his 12 TD's only 1 came from more than 10 yards out (14 yarder). The reason I bring this up is as most of us know by now the Pats traded Demps and a pick away for LeGerrette Blount. Now, BB has a way of well, let's just say making your fantasy RB situation just a little more interesting from year to year. Is Blount gonna steal those GL looks from Ridley? If he steals even just 1/3 thats 24 FP's in TD's alone in standard scoring leagues. Now personally I believed Blount to be pretty much washed up but the Pats do not usually just throw picks around for nothing...........so did Ridley's value just take a pretty good sized hit? I think it just may have! Am I saying go out and draft you a Blount? Nope and I am certainly not saying avoid Ridley. Just temper expectations as LB could really cut into Ridley's TD production this season.
Sam

 

[TREFF]

It may start out the season that way, but Blount will be his own worst enemy in this..he couldn't hack that role with TB, he won't hack it in NE either. A bigger detriment to Ridley's value will be the natural progression and further insertion of, Vareen, and which one of the two evolves faster.
My slug nickle's worth

 

[averagejoe]

Foxboro sure can mess with a fantasy outlook. On one hand you have a team that can churn out points. But you never know who's going to get the ball.

Ridley was used in 26.1% of NE's offense. By comparison, that puts him in the company of Ryan Mathews (25.7%), Bradshaw (26.6%), Spiller (27.7%), and McCoy (25.9%, who only played in 12 games also).

This shows that usage numbers are rather low. Most all other top 10 fantasy backs averaged better than 36% a part of their offense. Incidentally, Vereen was 6.4% involved.

The other side of the coin is fantasy points per-game. Ridley had 13.2 FPG. That's better than all of the other backs I mentioned above, with the exception of Spiller (14.0 FPG).

In fact, Ridley's FPG puts him in the same company as tier 1 RB's such as Richardson (13.5 FPG), Charles (13.6 FPG), and the less-than-elite Gore (12.8 FPG).

So you could say that Ridley made the most of his opportunities. Low usage% but high return on the FPG.

How does the addition of Blount and the future of Vereen factor in to Ridley's numbers for 2013? That's anybody's guess. And usually a situation I try to avoid. But for a RBBC with numbers like this, you could do worse in the middle rounds.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Great replies fellas! Didn't include Vareen as I was looking at what Blount might do to Ridley's value alone but in hindsight I probably should have thrown Vareen in there as who knows, he could be the lead back by week 4! Looking at some early rankings the honks over at "The old hangout" have Ridley the 9th ranked RB right in front of Shady and right after Charles. Point is, if Blount gets it together he could be BJGE Jr. in that offense and that would really hurt Ridley's production in the TD department thus cutting his average per game by say 2 points a game and putting him in the 10 to 11 PPG area.............just food for thought.
Sam

 

[wilwhite]

I have a hard time seeing Ridley as a top-10 RB next year... on the other hand if every time Brady looks downfield his receivers are in the infirmary the Pats might run more than expected anyway.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I have a hard time seeing Ridley as a top-10 RB next year... on the other hand if every time Brady looks downfield his receivers are in the infirmary the Pats might run more than expected anyway.

Yeah, in that case I could see all three possible being useful but top 10? Just don't see it...........and the way Vareen ended the season Ridley might want to start holding on to the ball or he might be out on his ass.
Sam

 

[Zig]

Eh Blount won't affect Ridley much at all. last year it was Ridley then Woodhead getting most of the touches and Woody is gone. Ridley/Vareen will be the top 2, not sure where Blount even fits in. Not a good 3rd down type, (Vareen is) not good at short yardage....Not sure what they got him for really. I'd say it's 50/50 he even makes the team. Already made him take a pay cut lol

 

[Zig]

also the Pats were 2nd in rush attempts, 1st in rush TDs last year. They aren't really that 'pass happy' anymore.

 

[averagejoe]

Blount won't affect Ridley much at all. ...not sure where Blount even fits in. Not a good 3rd down type.

Why would the Pats trade for the guy if they were going to cut him? (Can't remember if the draft order was affected by the trade?) Just doesn't seem right. Especially since the Pats have a reputation of getting the most out of certain players.

And not that I'm disagreeing with Zig, but where is all of this "information" coming from? I mean, every little bit of news that comes from an NFL organization might help with FF. But I've been burned before...

In fact, I remember one season, a head coach said emphatically that they were going to throw to the TE more. It didn't happen.

 

[Zig]

Why would the Pats trade for the guy if they were going to cut him? (Can't remember if the draft order was affected by the trade?) Just doesn't seem right. Especially since the Pats have a reputation of getting the most out of certain players.

And not that I'm disagreeing with Zig, but where is all of this "information" coming from? I mean, every little bit of news that comes from an NFL organization might help with FF. But I've been burned before...

In fact, I remember one season, a head coach said emphatically that they were going to throw to the TE more. It didn't happen.

They gave up a 7th rounder for him...and a pick from last year that wants to focus on track....so, not much of a gamble.

I'm just a Pats fan giving you my opinion....Hopefully Blount can help but jmo he isn't a good 'fit' for what the Pats do or need....So it's just my 'hunch' he might not make the team. (He did better his odds with the pay cut tho) I don't think he's a better 'feature back' than Ridley or a better 3rd down/receiving RB than Vareen....Ridley and Vareen will be the only fantasy relevant ones(barring injuries) I'd bet. Remember before last year the Pats brought in a bunch of fringe type guys including Addai and Anthony Gonzales...lot of hype, didn't even make team....Blount probably will but I'd be surprised if he has much impact. Late round fantasy flier or 'hand cuff' hows that? ha ha

 

[wilwhite]

I suspect Blount is insurance - an experienced back with low miles who at one point was pretty effective, dirt cheap. Might vault into a first/second-down back if Ridley goes down (in which case starting a NE RB would be a desperation move only), probably invisible if Ridley stays healthy.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I know this thread is 3 days stale, but after seeing Blount restructure his contract to get in with the Pats, I feel like it was more of a power play by the front office. They are sending a clear message to Ridley/Vareen when it comes to their position. Don't think twice about arguing for more money or a new contract, cause they will go out and replace your butt if you become a headache. I'd have to agree with Zig here though, I'm not sure you could put Blount on the field over a healthy Ridley/vareen combo.

And since he brought up Woodhead, can you say, 'Handcuff of the year'??? I don't mind sharing that I am looking at Woodhead for all of my teams on here, since we dont throw $$ in on the MBBRL or suicide league, but I will be gunning for Woodhead as one of my backup RBs in all of my other leagues. If Jackie Battle and a beat up Ronnie Brown can steal playing time from Ryan Matthews, Woodhead should easily be able to also.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Guys, great replies. My whole point is if Blount serves any purpose to this team at all it will be as a short yardage/goal line back and steal TD's from Ridley. This isn't so much about Blounts value as it is about what he could do to Ridley's value................Vareen will be Ridley's handcuff IMO.

 

[TREFF]

Guys, great replies. My whole point is if Blount serves any purpose to this team at all it will be as a short yardage/goal line back and steal TD's from Ridley. This isn't so much about Blounts value as it is about what he could do to Ridley's value................Vareen will be Ridley's handcuff IMO.

well, that's what I was saying..he won't handle that role..not unless the Pats line is markedly better than the Bucs line in short yardage situations..and if they are, why not go with Ridley?

 

[averagejoe]

Do I think Blount as any fantasy relevance? No.

Do I think Blount will eat into Ridley and Vareen's touches? No.

Woodhead had 76 rushing attempts and 4 TD. Had another 40 receptions with 3 more TD. Hardly made a fantasy dent. Plus he hardly made a dent in Ridley's fantasy numbers. He's now a Bolt.

Consider too that the Pats are a team that score a TON of TD's. They scored 59 offensive TD's. Personally, I don't see any change for Ridley. All systems go.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

The I know its too early but can't wait......

sam -focusing on the 'Can't wait' part of this.......

Does that make you the Bart Scott of fantasy football?

http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJshw2Axsqc

 

[Sox33OSU]

In other news, who is really high on Montee Ball? I couldn't help but think he instantly cemented himself as the ROY candidate to watch among RBs when he got taken by Denver. I hated going up against him in college as a Buckeye fan, and he evidently is not taking his time winning everyone in Mile High over. I could see a very similar Doug Martin-like situation. McGahee is done and Moreno is an injury risk. Hillman has yet to show up. Ball is the most complete back on the roster. I'm definitely buying high on him.

 

[TREFF]

I'm right there with ya on Ball, Sox.
I had him as the #1back in the draft, not Lacy or Bell, and he couldn't have landed in a better spot. If he's not the first rookie taken in fantasy drafts, than someone made a bad pick

 

[SmokingMonkey]

my favorite part about Ball, is that he understands what he can do, and what he is there to do. Critics were giving him shit about not having breakaway speed, and he was like 'shit, only 3-4 guys in the entire league can break 60yd TDs, of course I cant do that!'

He understands the game, and his role. extremely rare for rookies, imo. TD heavy leagues are where he will shine, I believe. I have him in the top of my RB2 tiers. need to see him do it at the next level before I say borderline RB1/2 though. Definitely fell into the right situation, as the younger/better version of McGahee, who played well behind Peyton and Teblow when healthy.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

as for ROY. Id be really interested in seeing the rookie QBs in AFC East. the media loves QBs, especially starting rookie QBs since Newton/Luck/RGIII/Wilson had so much success. I could see Manuel or Geno getting the award if their teams look to be much improved with them running the show.

Ball might get passed up by them if Peyton gets his arm strength back and can really pound those short yardage passes in to his amazing collection of WRs he has now.