The First 2018 College Football Playoff

[Across The Field]

Only way "you'll" be national champs is if you start rooting for Bama.

I have no way to argue that right now.

Also, I thought it was acceptable to say "we" if you were an alum. Did I miss a memo?

 

[Across The Field]

He's a lifelong gumper just like 4d20

I've actually got no problem with the Gumps. My soon to be Father-in-Law was a huge Bama fan for a while because they offered him a football scholarship coming out of HS and OSU didn't. He is now a big OSU fan, but still likes to see Bama win, so I'm cool with them.

 

[Deep Creek]

Teams have lost their CCG and made the BCS title game...it will happen eventually.

Yeah but the BCS's only human element was the polls.

And some claim the CCGs are defacto first rounds of the playoffs.

 

[ericd7633]

I have no way to argue that right now.

Also, I thought it was acceptable to say "we" if you were an alum. Did I miss a memo?

It is acceptable, which is why I said the only way you'll be saying that is if you became a Bama fan.

 

[Across The Field]

It is acceptable, which is why I said the only way you'll be saying that is if you became a Bama fan.

Ah, I misinterpreted. No arguments here, carry on.

 

[rmilia1]

If OU played either on a neutral field, what do you think the Vegas line would be?

Oklahoma is 3 in the Vegas top 25, UGA 5, LSU 7 so OU would be favored by Vegas

 

[Yo Tee]

Oklahoma is 3 in the Vegas top 25, UGA 5, LSU 7 so OU would be favored by Vegas

Well thankfully the Vegas Top 25 isn't taken into consideration into REAL rankings lol

 

[rmilia1]

Well thankfully the Vegas Top 25 isn't taken into consideration into REAL rankings lol

I know. We were just talking about which team was better. Vegas thinks that's OU

 

[Yo Tee]

I know. We were just talking about which team was better. Vegas thinks that's OU

Yeah I got that. I just think Vegas might not know what it's talking about putting OU over those two lol

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah I got that. I just think Vegas might not know what it's talking about putting OU over those two lol

If you put OU and UGA on a neutral field, I would guess that would be a push. If it was OU vs. LSU, I might be inclined to put my money on OU with that offense being so dangerous and Orgeron being so unpredictable.

 

[WizardHawk]

So many matrix options.

By S&P OU on a neutral field would be favored by 1 over Michigan, 2 over UGA, and 5 over ND. They would be 10 point favorites over LSU.

Looking at FEI Georgia is second only to Clemson. After UGA it's LSU, Bama, then Oklahoma.

It's not hard to reverse engineer the main vegas matrices, but they wouldn't be far off from a lot of these public ones. I would peg them closer to the S&P model, even if I prefer the stats of the FEI.

Looking at this weeks games, S&P would have Bama by 13.6 (line opened at 14), Auburn by 3.3 over A&M (opened at 6, sits at 4 now), UW by 10.5 over Stanford (opened 9.5 sits at 10), Georgia by 11.5 (opened 10).
Doesn't get every game close like it is WAY off for ND/northwestern. S&P has ND by 15.7 while the line opened at 7 and is sitting around 9.5. S&P clearly values northwestern well below the vegas matrix sets.

In looking at them, Oklahoma is currently ranked #1 in offense on S&P and 59th in defense. Georgia is 6th and 22nd. LSU sits pretty low on the S&P at 13th overall and 67th offense and 8th defense.

Of course who you would like yourself is different from how the odds would be set. Right now I'd bet Oklahoma is favored or pickem against any other team on a neutral field right now outside of Bama and Clemson.

 

[osubuckeye89]

So Bama is basically a lock to get in even if they lose to LSU........which would make their best win on the season against either Texas A&M or Miss State (they arent losing to them) who will both either barely crack the top 25 or finish unranked.

Sweet!

 

[Deep Creek]

Well thankfully the Vegas Top 25 isn't taken into consideration into REAL rankings lol

Yeah, Vegas doesn't want to make any money or anything like that! lol

 

[WizardHawk]

So Bama is basically a lock to get in even if they lose to LSU........which would make their best win on the season against either Texas A&M or Miss State (they arent losing to them) who will both either barely crack the top 25 or finish unranked.

Sweet!

I'm not saying it's right, but the difference with bama and quite a few other teams is they are entirely undressing their meh opponents while many others are narrowly escaping against questionable teams. I don't think their starters have played much into the 4th quarter in a single game have they?

The FEI has bama 4th overall, but 2nd in both offense and defense on adjusted numbers that throw out their garbage time stats and normalize to the level of teams they have played.

These indexes do not take human poll bias into consideration past any type of early season seeds that are used until there is enough data to stand on their own.

UCF is currently 25th overall in the FEI sitting at 6th in offense and 32nd in defense.

They probably have UW way too high and maybe ND a bit too low, others I might not agree with based on the 'eye test', but these are number crunching algorithms and nothing more.

Given that the committee is allowed to use 'other' as criteria they can basically use any of these types of matrix data points to supplement their views.

Teams with 1 loss (or none in UCF's case) are not getting as much love because they just aren't destroying everyone in front of them, whether or not their opponents are considered good.

 

[WizardHawk]

Since I struggle with short answers, Bama getting in with one loss against LSU is nothing more than they look a LOT better against the rest of their games than every other 1 loss team in the country. And it's not close.

Better?

 

[osubuckeye89]

I'm not saying it's right, but the difference with bama and quite a few other teams is they are entirely undressing their meh opponents while many others are narrowly escaping against questionable teams. I don't think their starters have played much into the 4th quarter in a single game have they?

The FEI has bama 4th overall, but 2nd in both offense and defense on adjusted numbers that throw out their garbage time stats and normalize to the level of teams they have played.

These indexes do not take human poll bias into consideration past any type of early season seeds that are used until there is enough data to stand on their own.

UCF is currently 25th overall in the FEI sitting at 6th in offense and 32nd in defense.

They probably have UW way too high and maybe ND a bit too low, others I might not agree with based on the 'eye test', but these are number crunching algorithms and nothing more.

Given that the committee is allowed to use 'other' as criteria they can basically use any of these types of matrix data points to supplement their views.

Teams with 1 loss (or none in UCF's case) are not getting as much love because they just aren't destroying everyone in front of them, whether or not their opponents are considered good.

If a 1 loss non division champ Bama gets in over a 1 loss P5 champ, its complete and utter BS. No matter how anyone wants to try to spin it. ESPECIALLY this season, considering how meh their resume would be if they lose to LSU.

Theyd also be basically rewarding Bama for missing the SEC title game again, Bama sits at home for losing to LSU without the possibility of risking another loss, where in essence LSU/UGA or Kentucky would be getting punished as one of them is forced to take a loss (which would be their 2nd effectively eliminating them from the Playoff)

Bama is pretty much the only team who would ever be afforded this luxury under nothing more than "Well theyre bama!"

 

[Deep Creek]

So many matrix options.

By S&P OU on a neutral field would be favored by 1 over Michigan, 2 over UGA, and 5 over ND. They would be 10 point favorites over LSU.

Looking at FEI Georgia is second only to Clemson. After UGA it's LSU, Bama, then Oklahoma.

It's not hard to reverse engineer the main vegas matrices, but they wouldn't be far off from a lot of these public ones. I would peg them closer to the S&P model, even if I prefer the stats of the FEI.

Looking at this weeks games, S&P would have Bama by 13.6 (line opened at 14), Auburn by 3.3 over A&M (opened at 6, sits at 4 now), UW by 10.5 over Stanford (opened 9.5 sits at 10), Georgia by 11.5 (opened 10).
Doesn't get every game close like it is WAY off for ND/northwestern. S&P has ND by 15.7 while the line opened at 7 and is sitting around 9.5. S&P clearly values northwestern well below the vegas matrix sets.

In looking at them, Oklahoma is currently ranked #1 in offense on S&P and 59th in defense. Georgia is 6th and 22nd. LSU sits pretty low on the S&P at 13th overall and 67th offense and 8th defense.

Of course who you would like yourself is different from how the odds would be set. Right now I'd bet Oklahoma is favored or pickem against any other team on a neutral field right now outside of Bama and Clemson.

And after all the stats are considered, then one might consider the "match up" issue. Some teams match up well against one team, and then not worth a shit against a team that might be inferior to them.

I believe the horse racing term is "Horses for courses" or something like that. Horse will run like the wind on one track and then turn around and be so slow on another track he couldn't scatter his own shit with a rake tied to his tail.

 

[Yo Tee]

Since I struggle with short answers, Bama getting in with one loss against LSU is nothing more than they look a LOT better against the rest of their games than every other 1 loss team in the country. And it's not close.

Better?

I agree. I feel like 1-loss Bama gets in regardless. They would have to lose 2 games to not get in, in my opinion.

 

[Yo Tee]

If a 1 loss non division champ Bama gets in over a 1 loss P5 champ, its complete and utter BS

It's happened each of the last 2 years. Ohio State in 2016 and Bama last year.

 

[WizardHawk]

If a 1 loss non division champ Bama gets in over a 1 loss P5 champ, its complete and utter BS. No matter how anyone wants to try to spin it. ESPECIALLY this season, considering how meh their resume would be if they lose to LSU.

Theyd also be basically rewarding Bama for missing the SEC title game again, Bama sits at home for losing to LSU without the possibility of risking another loss, where in essence LSU/UGA or Kentucky would be getting punished as one of them is forced to take a loss (which would be their 2nd effectively eliminating them from the Playoff)

Bama is pretty much the only team who would ever be afforded this luxury under nothing more than "Well theyre bama!"

There will be an argument more years than not. There hasen't been one yet where 4th wasn't scoffed at and some team 5th or lower was peddled by outraged online talking heads as more deserving. I honestly don't care. At all. And no, it has nothing to do with UW being 4th one of those years and people upset it should have been another. I'd have been fine if it was UW 5th as well.

The only purpose of the playoff is to have a unanimous winner tested by the teams placed in around them. It is more relevant that first and second ranked teams are solid than who is 3rd or 4th. In the years of the BCS and before that in human polls, those 3rd through 6th were irrelevant so why should that change now?

I couldn't care less if Bama sneaks in again at 4th in such a scenario. Every team left out, EVERY TEAM only had to win their games to reach it and failed to do so. Period. End of discussion as far as I'm concerned. As soon as you lose a game you lose control of any argument over a playoff berth. And I am 10000% ok with that. The system as it stands works as intended and every one of their champions earned the right to be crowned.