The 2021 NFL Draft Thread.

[Clayton]

Chris Simms "Mac Jones is a better prospect than Tua"

Not the biggest compliment there but he is definitely locked into the top 10 if the media hype is true. We're officially in smokescreen season, though.

What I'm seeing from Mac Jones is that he is a robot. He sees a throw, he makes the throw. Stares guys down a bit and gets his WRs killed a bit. Throws off his backfoot a lot and it can sail but you see Mahomes do that, too, and it works out for him. Arm strength is good enough but the fit looks like West Coast with Play Action Deep Throws.

When Drew Lock was coming out I thought he was a mix of Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. It turns out that the Carson Wentz comp wasn't exactly as much of a complement as I thought and Lock's erratic nature really isnt anything Denver can work with. With Mac Jones, I just see Derek Carr. Not the most talented guy ever but someone who can be on the same page with his surrounding talent and can compete and win if put in the situation to do so. As such, I do think its possible Denver is in play for Mac Jones as a last resort. He doesn't fit the Elway stereotype for a QB but that might not be that main factor in Denver anymore. I think the Patriots would need to pick up some free agents on offense before even considering him but thats a fit. Steelers and Saints also seem like they might be fits.

I'd still take Fields before him, though.

 

[cwalke3408]

Chris Simms "Mac Jones is a better prospect than Tua"

Not the biggest compliment there but he is definitely locked into the top 10 if the media hype is true. We're officially in smokescreen season, though.

What I'm seeing from Mac Jones is that he is a robot. He sees a throw, he makes the throw. Stares guys down a bit and gets his WRs killed a bit. Throws off his backfoot a lot and it can sail but you see Mahomes do that, too, and it works out for him. Arm strength is good enough but the fit looks like West Coast with Play Action Deep Throws.

When Drew Lock was coming out I thought he was a mix of Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. It turns out that the Carson Wentz comp wasn't exactly as much of a complement as I thought and Lock's erratic nature really isnt anything Denver can work with. With Mac Jones, I just see Derek Carr. Not the most talented guy ever but someone who can be on the same page with his surrounding talent and can compete and win if put in the situation to do so. As such, I do think its possible Denver is in play for Mac Jones as a last resort. He doesn't fit the Elway stereotype for a QB but that might not be that main factor in Denver anymore. I think the Patriots would need to pick up some free agents on offense before even considering him but thats a fit. Steelers and Saints also seem like they might be fits.

I'd still take Fields before him, though.

I'm in the same boat with "Mac Jones is a better prospect than Tua". It's not so much that Mac Jones is a top 10 pick in this year's draft, it is that I wasn't that sold on Tua (and for Simms, Tua was his #4 QB behind Jordan Love). What I like Jones over Tua is that he's not injured coming into the draft, I think he handles pressure better and is better with his post-snap reads

 

[Clayton]

What I like Jones over Tua is that he's not injured coming into the draft, I think he handles pressure better and is better with his post-snap reads

I agree with all of this although I did think Tua was more accurate.

Its is worth noting somewhat that Tua actually had more talent around him. With Jones, it was the Devonta Smith show which is actually a bit more like a normal 'good' college football offense. Tua's offense was like a freaking Dream Team.

A good film to watch on Mac Jones, imo, is the Tennessee game. There is a lot to like but he does put that ball out there like he is Joe Burrow or Kurt Warner and but he isn't Joe Burrow or Kurt Warner. He misses an easy throw to Devonta Smith and almost gets him killed. He misses a TD wide open down the middle of the field because he is locked into Devonta Smith on the same drive. Still, you look at what he is doing and its not hard to think he can't come into the NFL day 1 and start for at least a few teams as he starts out the game going 10/10.

 

[JohnShadows]

Chris Simms "Mac Jones is a better prospect than Tua"

Not the biggest compliment there but he is definitely locked into the top 10 if the media hype is true. We're officially in smokescreen season, though.

What I'm seeing from Mac Jones is that he is a robot. He sees a throw, he makes the throw. Stares guys down a bit and gets his WRs killed a bit. Throws off his backfoot a lot and it can sail but you see Mahomes do that, too, and it works out for him. Arm strength is good enough but the fit looks like West Coast with Play Action Deep Throws.

When Drew Lock was coming out I thought he was a mix of Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. It turns out that the Carson Wentz comp wasn't exactly as much of a complement as I thought and Lock's erratic nature really isnt anything Denver can work with. With Mac Jones, I just see Derek Carr. Not the most talented guy ever but someone who can be on the same page with his surrounding talent and can compete and win if put in the situation to do so. As such, I do think its possible Denver is in play for Mac Jones as a last resort. He doesn't fit the Elway stereotype for a QB but that might not be that main factor in Denver anymore. I think the Patriots would need to pick up some free agents on offense before even considering him but thats a fit. Steelers and Saints also seem like they might be fits.

I'd still take Fields before him, though.

Lot of noise about the Panthers taking Jones. I just think like with Tua, it's hard to tell how pro-ready he is because :
(1) Yes, his numbers were phenomenal this year, but:
(2) CFB has never seen the speed and ability of Bama's WR corps this and last year. They've been hitting little slant routes that go for 60-80 yard touchdowns. That's biased the sample.
(3) Was he in a close game this year?

I got Fields and Jones about tied. Lance below both of them.

 

[Clayton]

Lot of noise about the Panthers taking Jones. I just think like with Tua, it's hard to tell how pro-ready he is because :
(1) Yes, his numbers were phenomenal this year, but:
(2) CFB has never seen the speed and ability of Bama's WR corps this and last year. They've been hitting little slant routes that go for 60-80 yard touchdowns. That's biased the sample.
(3) Was he in a close game this year?

I got Fields and Jones about tied. Lance below both of them.

I think Mac Jones should be grouped with Kellen Mond. Late 1st-early 2nd round QBs.

Lawrence and Wilson are pretty much locked into #1 and #2 imo.

Fields and Lance could go anywhere. They're in the Josh Allen/Paxton Lynch/Justin Herbert/Mitch Trubisky zone. A team will have to fall in love with them and it could work out or maybe it won't. I do think Fields should go before Lance but I think those are the 2 QBs that the Panthers should realistically be choosing from. I'll admit that I haven't looked at QBs as much as other positions, though, because its one of the few positions the Chiefs dont need.

 

[cwalke3408]

Lot of noise about the Panthers taking Jones. I just think like with Tua, it's hard to tell how pro-ready he is because :
(1) Yes, his numbers were phenomenal this year, but:
(2) CFB has never seen the speed and ability of Bama's WR corps this and last year. They've been hitting little slant routes that go for 60-80 yard touchdowns. That's biased the sample.
(3) Was he in a close game this year?

I got Fields and Jones about tied. Lance below both of them.

Matt Rhule and Jones were practically best friends during the Senior Bowl. Mac Jones to the Panthers is pretty much a done deal

 

[Clayton]

I guess to be fair to Mac Jones, if I'm saying he isn't Joe Burrow its worth mentioning that he also isnt as old as Joe Burrow coming out and he didn't have as much talent around him as Burrow, as crazy as that sounds, and still did a pretty good imitation.

Chris Simms definitely has some hot takes right now but they're things to consider. He puts Zach Wilson in the Rodgers/Mahomes territory while making Trevor Lawrence sound kinda like Matt Ryan with wheels. Kinda makes Justin Fields sound like Cam Newton.

This is going to be a really fun offseason.

 

[JohnShadows]

Quantifying Quarterbacks: Mac Jones (yahoo.com)

^^ This is pretty good. The things that stood out to me:

(1) Strong in the pocket, can take hits. Made some nice "boutique" throws under pressure with unconventional mechanics in the RZ.
(2) Doesn't come out of the pocket much, is not athletic, or a good improvisor on the run. Last is not a good look, out of keeping with the current standard.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I guess to be fair to Mac Jones, if I'm saying he isn't Joe Burrow its worth mentioning that he also isnt as old as Joe Burrow coming out and he didn't have as much talent around him as Burrow, as crazy as that sounds, and still did a pretty good imitation.

Chris Simms definitely has some hot takes right now but they're things to consider. He puts Zach Wilson in the Rodgers/Mahomes territory while making Trevor Lawrence sound kinda like Matt Ryan with wheels. Kinda makes Justin Fields sound like Cam Newton.

This is going to be a really fun offseason.

Yeah well it’s Chris Simms lol

 

[cwalke3408]

I agree with all of this although I did think Tua was more accurate.

Yeah Tua has the better arm and is very accurate

Its is worth noting somewhat that Tua actually had more talent around him. With Jones, it was the Devonta Smith show which is actually a bit more like a normal 'good' college football offense. Tua's offense was like a freaking Dream Team.

A good film to watch on Mac Jones, imo, is the Tennessee game. There is a lot to like but he does put that ball out there like he is Joe Burrow or Kurt Warner and but he isn't Joe Burrow or Kurt Warner. He misses an easy throw to Devonta Smith and almost gets him killed. He misses a TD wide open down the middle of the field because he is locked into Devonta Smith on the same drive. Still, you look at what he is doing and its not hard to think he can't come into the NFL day 1 and start for at least a few teams as he starts out the game going 10/10.

This is a fair take on Jones that goes allow in what you are saying. Mac Jones is probably one of the best in the draft at processing the field but his arm talent and mobility is something to be desired.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Simms rankings:

1. Wilson and he says he’s clearly, without a doubt. He compares him to Mahomes/Rodgers.
2. Lawrence
3. Jones
4. Mond?
5. Fields
6. Lance

 

[Clayton]

Yeah Tua has the better arm and is very accurate

This is a fair take on Jones that goes allow in what you are saying. Mac Jones is probably one of the best in the draft at processing the field but his arm talent and mobility is something to be desired.

I say just get him some big targets. Trent Green had a middling size, arm, athletic profile and he had a pretty good career and it doesn't really show up in his stat line because his RBs got so many TDs. Give Mac Jones a big TE to work the middle of the field and a speed guy on the outside and he is good to go.

 

[cwalke3408]

Simms rankings:

1. Wilson and he says he’s clearly, without a doubt. He compares him to Mahomes/Rodgers.
2. Lawrence
3. Jones
4. Mond?
5. Fields
6. Lance

I have respect for Simms on his QB rankings but Mond in the top 5?

 

[Shanemansj13]

I have respect for Simms on his QB rankings but Mond in the top 5?

Yeah same here. He loves him.

I definitely see why he puts Fields at 5. A lot of mechanical issues, reading defenses at times...if he can fix those though I believe he has a never ending ceiling. I never know what to expect after the Josh Allen transformation. I think Fields would benefit sitting tbh

 

[SteelersPride]

i like mond, he had some underground hype last year, see if he gets a chance, smart player

 

[SteelersPride]

Crazy stat. 40% of first round qbs, Sign a second contract with their drafting team. Oof.


Shows how little make it.

 

[Clayton]

Crazy stat. 40% of first round qbs, Sign a second contract with their drafting team. Oof.


Shows how little make it.

A big part of this is how the contracts shake out. Justin Herbert makes about half as much as a decent WR Free Agent and about a third as much as a star WR contract. Patrick Mahomes makes about as much as one star WR and one decent WR. You can't pay a guy that much unless he is a real difference maker and there are only about 7 or 8 of those a decade.

The teams that are about to be in for a rude awakening are the Ravens and the Browns. The Bills are going to pay Josh Allen the Mahomes type of money because they have their offense built around Allen and he is pretty close to that MVP level you want to see and he'll make WRs look good. Browns and Ravens are mostly running teams that have had the opportunity to stack themselves with talent. Would you give Baker or Jackson a 'Mahomes' contract?

The Chiefs are going to get seriously challenged in the AFC next year and as Super Bowl losers it doesn't have a good track record there, either. That said, a couple of those challengers are probably going to drop off in the long run

 

[SteelersPride]

A big part of this is how the contracts shake out. Justin Herbert makes about half as much as a decent WR Free Agent and about a third as much as a star WR contract. Patrick Mahomes makes about as much as one star WR and one decent WR. You can't pay a guy that much unless he is a real difference maker and there are only about 7 or 8 of those a decade.

The teams that are about to be in for a rude awakening are the Ravens and the Browns. The Bills are going to pay Josh Allen the Mahomes type of money because they have their offense built around Allen and he is pretty close to that MVP level you want to see and he'll make WRs look good. Browns and Ravens are mostly running teams that have had the opportunity to stack themselves with talent. Would you give Baker or Jackson a 'Mahomes' contract?

The Chiefs are going to get seriously challenged in the AFC next year and as Super Bowl losers it doesn't have a good track record there, either. That said, a couple of those challengers are probably going to drop off in the long run

True. But i dint think any team is going “man my qb costs too much” they get it done. Qbs are too valuable. Sans dak right now.

what qbs that were even half decent, werent signed for second contracts? Cousins?

 

[Clayton]

True. But i dint think any team is going “man my qb costs too much” they get it done. Qbs are too valuable. Sans dak right now.

what qbs that were even half decent, werent signed for second contracts? Cousins?

Dak and Cousins were the first two that came to mind although neither were first rounders. I think Mariota and Winston will both be starters again at some point but I'm not really sure they're in the 'half decent' category. Same with Bridgewater although you can argue his injury was a factor.

Darnold might be a starter again at some point but he is almost certainly done with the Jets. You might see Haskins starting for the Steelers.

 

[SteelersPride]

Dak and Cousins were the first two that came to mind although neither were first rounders. I think Mariota and Winston will both be starters again at some point but I'm not really sure they're in the 'half decent' category. Same with Bridgewater although you can argue his injury was a factor.

Darnold might be a starter again at some point but he is almost certainly done with the Jets. You might see Haskins starting for the Steelers.

yeah, i guess that my point, dak i still TBD. With the exception of cousin(who washington didnt believe in for whatever reason)........all the rest of the guys were semi bust......

Mariota was not good in his time, winston went(fwiw i want him in black and gold), haskins was abysmal, darnolds been really bad actually.......teddy was hurt........but all of them were just not worth a contract over a journeyman or another rookie........


When i think of round 1 qb's, i think of, heres a solution for 5-6-7-8 year