The 2014 Broncos: Schedule and Predictions

[iknowftbll]

I usually get this out shortly after the draft, but I've been a little lazy this year. But better late than never, right?

History is against the Broncos this season. It was the early 1970s the last time a team lost the Super Bowl and won it the following year. It's been the early 1990s since the losing team even made it back at all. But last year the 49ers came pretty close, and as solid as this Broncos team is, I don't see any reason they do not have a legitimate shot.

First some assumptions:

Team health. The Broncos are capable of beating every team on their schedule and being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But if the injury bug hits them like it did last year, they can easily be relegated to "bubble team" status going into week 17.

Offensive strategy: The Broncos averaged nearly 38 PPG last season. That's a tough act to follow and I don't expect the team to come close to replicating that. However I don't think they are going to need to. I believe they are going to place a higher focus on balancing the running game with the pass and as a result they are going to have lower scores.

Defensive strategy: Part of the defensive stats last year were inflated due to teams having to play catch up. But there were times the defense was just ineffective. That is somewhat to be expected considering how many starters we were missing. With that said, if this unit stays healthy the Broncos are probably going to have the best defense in the AFC, and one of the best league-wide.

Special teams: Last year was a mixed bag. Any time Trinden Holliday fielded a punt I'd hold my breath and hope for the best. There were times the coverage was pretty bad, too. If this year's special teams unit is good enough to eliminate muffed punts that's a huge win right there. I think Andre Caldwell should be the guy taking punts. He has good hands and decent size and speed.

The schedule: We already knew it was going to be a tough slate based on the opponents. When you play them and where matters. The league has configured this schedule into a pretty challenging sequence. The schedule is front loaded with home games, so health factors heavily into the later half of the season as the team plays more road games.

So here are my predictions for the season:

Week 1: vs Indianapolis Colts (SNF): Win 34-17. The Colts are one of the better teams in the AFC this year, but they have the misfortune of drawing the Broncos on kickoff weekend. The Broncos are going to be hungry for this game, eager to shake off an ugly Super Bowl loss. The Broncos came out flat last year against the Colts and still came close to winning. They are going to come out hot and it's going to be a tough one for the Colts. Broncos 1-0.

Week 2: vs Chiefs: Win 41-14. The Chiefs had a great season last year, going 11-5 after 2-14 the year prior. But what happened to them after they started playing the better teams? A team that started 9-0 finished 2-5. Color me unimpressed. I think the Chiefs take a step back this season, especially in the face of better competition. The Broncos roll in this one. Broncos 2-0.

Week 3: @ Seahawks: Loss 21-31. There will be talk of this being a "revenge game." That is utter nonsense. The only way to avenge a Super Bowl loss would be a repeat of last year's Super Bowl with the Broncos coming out on top this time. This game is just a regular season game and the first road game of the season for the Broncos. A win would be a huge statement, but a loss will have all the detractors pontificating about how the Broncos are not legit contenders. Broncos 2-1.

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: vs Cardinals: Win 27-13. The Cardinals were one of the more under-rated teams last season. They bring a will bring a stout defense and emerging offense into this contest. Still they are not a better team than the Broncos, who will be coming off a loss and a bye. Broncos 3-1.

Week 6: @ Jets: Win 31-17. The Jets are simply not on the Broncos level. Broncos cruise through this one. Broncos 4-1.

Week 7: vs 49ers (SNF): Win 26-16. The Broncos are going to have their work cut out for them in this one. The 49ers play a very physical style of offense and defense alike. A win will help the Broncos shed their image of being a finesse team. Broncos 5-1.

Week 8: vs Chargers (TNF): Loss 20-24. To play on Sunday Night Football and turn right around and play Thursday Night Football against a solid team like the Chargers is asking a lot, even for a contender like the Broncos. The Chargers won in near identical circumstances late in the 2013 season and are able to catch the Broncos on a bad week here. Broncos 5-2.

Week 9: @ Patriots: Loss 24-31. I will never understand all this talk about Tom Brady no longer being an elite QB. I've read a lot about this in the past few months and just don't see it. I don't think the Patriots are a better team than the Broncos, but playing this one in their own house will be enough to make the difference. Broncos 5-3.

Week 10: @ Raiders: Win 41-14. The Raiders may be on the brink of turning the corner. They are finally playing with a full deck, draftwise and don't have the dead money problems left over from the Al Davis years. But this year they have an unusually tough schedule and their improvements may not translate into wins this season. The team would be wise to keep Reggie and Denis Allen around beyond this season. Broncos 6-3.

Week 11: @ Rams: Win 28-17. The third consecutive road game for the Broncos and against a team that may have been a 9 or 10 game winner in any other NFC division last year. The Rams have a solid defense and always seem on the brink of greatness on offense. Still they are just not as strong a team as the Broncos and it will show in this one. Broncos 7-3.

Week 12: vs Dolphins: Win 41-10. A home game after three consecutive road games is going to be refreshing. Against a lesser opponent like the Dolphins and this one has the makings of a blowout win. Broncos 8-3.

Week 13: @ Chiefs (SNF): loss 27-28. While I may not be impressed with the Chiefs, I still recognize they are usually a tough team to beat in Kansas City. The Broncos have won 3 straight in Kansas City, a trend the Chiefs would like to halt. This year they do. Broncos 8-4.

Week 14: vs Bills: Win 35-10. The Bills did show some signs of life last season, but just couldn't keep it going. But even if they are able to continue to improve, the Broncos are a far superior team. It will show in this one. Broncos 9-4.

Week 15: @ Chargers: Win 24-21. I expect the Chargers will still be in the running for the AFC West title at this point, so this game will bring huge playoff seeding implications. It'll be a hard fought game, but the Broncos will avenger their earlier loss. Broncos 10-4.

Week 16: @ Bengals: Win 27-13. The Bengals defense may be able to slow the Broncos offense down, but I doubt they'll be able to contain them for a whole game. The Broncos pull away after the half. Broncos 11-4.

Week 17: vs Raiders: Win 37-13. Like last season's finale, the Broncos will do most of their damage in the first half and probably pull some of the key players in the second half. I believe they are going to have their playoff seed locked up at this point, unload on the Raiders in the first half, then put it in cruise to close out the regular season. Broncos final record: 12-4.

A record of 12-4 against this schedule reflects a few things. First, their offense is still the best in the league. Secondly, their defense is going to be a contributing factor especially late in the season. The Broncos will score 484 points and surrender 289. Manning will pass for about 4,800 yards, 40 TDs, and under 10 picks. Monte Ball will lead the Broncos in rushing, going for nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and 7 or 8 TDs.

But a look at the Patriots and the Colts schedules tells me the Broncos at 12-4 will be the #3 playoff seed. I see the playoffs shaping up like this:

Patriots: 14-2
Colts: 13-3
Broncos: 12-4
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6
Chargers 11-5*
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6

The Chargers schedule looks highly favorable, but the last 5-6 weeks are brutal. It is possible they close out the season on a 4 or 5 game skid but still make the playoffs due to winning enough games early.

AFC West predicted finish:

Broncos: 12-4
Chargers: 11-5
Chiefs: 8-8
Raiders: 5-11

Your thoughts?

 

[cdumler7]

Wow I don't really disagree with you on much here. I don't think the Chargers finish 11-5. I have them at 9-7. Honestly I think they are a better team this year than last but the problem just being this schedule is going to make life hell on every team in the NFC West and AFC West. They are going to end up knocking each other out of the playoffs.


As for our individual schedule the difference I would have is I do think we beat Seattle (just a homer decision right now with very little evidence to back it up) but then lay a stinker against the Rams later in the year with it being a 3rd straight road game for us.

 

[iknowftbll]

Wow I don't really disagree with you on much here. I don't think the Chargers finish 11-5. I have them at 9-7. Honestly I think they are a better team this year than last but the problem just being this schedule is going to make life hell on every team in the NFC West and AFC West. They are going to end up knocking each other out of the playoffs.


As for our individual schedule the difference I would have is I do think we beat Seattle (just a homer decision right now with very little evidence to back it up) but then lay a stinker against the Rams later in the year with it being a 3rd straight road game for us.

I went back and forth on that Rams game, being it is the third consecutive road game and the Rams are not a bad team. But ultimately I believe the Broncos are the better team and it will show. A lot of my confidence this season hinges on the defense being closer to the 2012 levels.

As for the Chargers you have to look at the sequence of the teams they play. I have them going 10-1 to start the season but 1-4 to close it out. They are either better than the teams on the first half of their schedule or they catch them at the right time, as is the case in their game with the Broncos. They are going to challenge for the AFC West title this season.

 

[cdumler7]

See for me I look at San Diego and I see 5 of the first 9 games being a challenge. Not all the teams being better than them but because of the road challenge making it difficult. It has been proven that teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast struggle. So those games against Buffalo and Miami could have the great equalizer just in the distance traveled plus those being the early games. Then I look at the games against Seattle and then @Arizona and I see San Diego especially getting beat up if nothing else early on by 2 very hard hitting defenses. I could see them split those games but last year teams struggled after playing an NFC West opponent just because their body needed time to recover. Then of course @Denver. I think Denver learned their lesson from last year in not letting San Diego come in and knock them in the teeth like they did. I also do think the Franklin moving to guard and Clady being back should secure the OL where we struggled quite a bit against San Diego.


So this is why for me though those first 11 games I have them closer to 7-4 than 10-1 at this point. Then I have them finishing out the season 2-3 as San Diego does seem to do well down the stretch of seasons.

 

[iknowftbll]

Those are all valid point, CD. I just have a feeling about the Chargers. This is the second year of Mike McCoy's tenure as head coach. He took a team that was faltering and got them to 9-7 without a stellar lineup at many of the skill positions. Now they are going to require better O-line play this season especially against some of the defenses they will face. If they get that, look out. Their defense really turned it around through the second half of the season last year and if they continue that surge this team is a contender.

 

[cdumler7]

Yeah we shall see. For me I am not that impressed with San Diego's OL. They got fortunate enough that the Broncos had a horrible pass rush last season giving Rivers all day to throw. Honestly he went up against very few decent pass rushes that were decent last year so I think the OL is going to have their hands full this year.


I also think Gates is going to really have a down year. All those injuries at his age are going to take a toll. Especially this season going against so many physical defenses I just have a hard time seeing him play all year or play at such a high level.


Defensively not sure how much better they actually got. You are right they started playing better but other than us on a shortened week it is not like they played a lot of great offenses either. Verrett was a decent pick but I don't see him covering D. Thomas when we play them. They really have no starting Corner that can match up with that size and speed (given not many teams do).


Anyway we see it just a bit differently but in the NFL anything can happen so who knows how it will turn out.

 

[iknowftbll]

Honestly I hope you are right. I dislike the Chargers intensely having lived in San Diego for a few years when they were running the show in the AFC West. Chargers fans are some of the most annoying and ignorant you'll ever meet. I can at least appreciate Chiefs fans and Raiders fans because they draw fan interest regardless of how good or bad the team is. But I loathe fair weather fans, especially when they are complete ass hats the way Chargers fans are.

Here is my rationale for the Chargers finishing 11-5:

@ Cardinals: Win. I'm really just giving the Chargers the benefit of the doubt in this one. The Cardinals finished 10-6 and have a pretty solid defense. But the Chargers are much better on offense and as I've alluded I expect their defense to be pretty solid as well, so I think they go into Phoenix and spoil the Cards home opener. Chargers 1-0.

vs Seahawks: Loss. I don't expect the Seahawks to come in and push the Chargers around, but I do expect their defense to keep a lid on Rivers and the offense. The Chargers defense will keep them in this one, but the Seahawks are the better team all around and it will show. Chargers 1-1.

@ Bills: Win. I agree that traveling east takes its toll on West Coast teams and the Chargers are a good example of that. Plus I am hearing the Bills get a little hype after the off season they've had. I'll believe it when I see it. Right now I think the Chargers are a much better team than the Bills and will be able to handle them even on the road. Chargers 2-1.

vs Jaguars: win. The Jags have a solid history against the Chargers, but I give Mike McCoy the benefit of the doubt, especially since these Jags haven't proven anything yet. Chargers 3-1.

vs Jets: win. The Jets remind me of the Chargers just a few years ago: dysfunctional. I think Mike McCoy has brought a level of poise and professionalism to that team and the Chargers are probably going to blow out the Jets in this one. Chargers 4-1.

@ Raiders: win. This is a huge game for both teams because it is the first divisional rivalry game between the teams. I believe the Raiders are improved but they are going up against an extremely tough schedule, including a Chargers team that is better than last year's. Chargers 5-1.

vs Chiefs: win. I've already alluded to being unconvinced by the Chiefs 11-5 finish last year. That team was very much an 8-8 team masquerading as a playoff team. They've also lost a few key pieces and with Andy Reid what we saw last year is what we're going to see this year. In other words, I don't expect to see a lot of expansion in the play book or play calling. The Chargers are much more aggressive. Chargers 6-1.

@ Broncos: Win. This one is hard for me to pick, but I've explained my rationale in my initial post. This win will have all the pundits jumping on the Chargers band wagon the way many were on the Chiefs band wagon last year. That's fine with me, really. Chargers 7-1.

@ Dolphins: Win. Another trip to the East Coast where the Chargers usually lay an egg. The whole AFC West typically fares poorly against the Dolphins in Miami, regardless of what season it is. But I am not expecting much from this year's Phins, and the Chargers are going to be rolling at this point. They carry the momentum of a freight train into their bye week. Chargers 8-1.

Bye week.

vs Raiders: win. Coming out of their bye week and facing off against the Raiders at home the Chargers are primed to keep it moving in the right direction. Chargers 9-1.

vs Rams: win. I've said repeatedly the Rams are a better team than they get credit for. If this game were in St. Louis I'd probably pick them to win. But this game will be in San Diego where the home crowd will believe something special is brewing. Chargers 10-1, but there is trouble on the horizon.

@ Ravens: Loss. The Ravens finished 8-8 last year but they are not a bad team. I expect they'll be duking it out in a three-way fight with the Steelers and Bengals and be in contention for their division this year. The Chargers will have survived two East Coast trips against lesser teams, but the Ravens are good enough to put a stop to the Chargers streak. Chargers 10-2.

vs Patriots: Loss. This game will feature to AFC heavy weights. You saw my prediction for the Patriots to go 14-2, so that means this game will be hyped up with major playoff implications. The Patriots emerge winners. Chargers 10-3.

vs Broncos: Loss. The Broncos bring a 9-4 record into this one while the Chargers are a game better but reeling in a 2 game skid and desperate to break it. The Broncos are going to need a win to even out their record with the Chargers and avoid a season sweep, which would all but seal the division for the Chargers. It'll be a close game, but the Broncos take it. Chargers 10-4.

@ 49ers: Loss. The Chargers are in a full-fledge plunge at this point, having lost 3 in a row and facing off against an elite NFC powerhouse. The 49ers are likely in a dogfight for their own division title, and possibly jockying for playoff seeding position as well. The Chargers are a solid team, but this 49ers team has more experience and knows how to win and the disparity will be evident in this one. Chargers 10-5.

@ Chiefs: Win. The Chargers will have won enough games early to stamp their playoff ticket even during a 4 game skid. But they do not want to go into the playoffs on a 5 game skid and would love nothing more than to end the Chiefs season on a bad note. I expect the Chiefs to be 8-7 coming into this one, but already eliminated from the playoffs. It'll be a quiet finish for them, and temporarily right the ship for the Chargers as they lock up the #5 seed in the playoffs. Chargers 11-5.

Going off of my playoff seeding above, this will put the Chargers playing the #4 seeded Ravens, Steelers, or Bengals. I see them winning if they play the Ravens (a second look will give them a different outcome) Bengals (sooner or later Dalton will lead them to a playoff win. Or will he?) but losing if they play the Steelers. If the Steelers are good enough to go 10-6 and win their division, I assume they'll be good enough to put an end to the Chargers season there in Pittsburgh.

I actually picked wins and losses for the Chiefs and Raiders too. Maybe I'll post those later.

 

[cdumler7]

Haha I know your pain at least a little bit in I lived in Seattle the last 2 years. Thankfully moved just a bit before they won the Super Bowl so didn't have to deal with that. I couldn't believe in my time how quickly that whole city just all of a sudden became life long Seahawks fans. Heck before they became good all people wanted to talk about was their soccer team and could care less to talk about the Seahawks. Every once in a while I would find somebody when I wore my Elway jersey that would want to talk but usually the conversation didn't go much further than "Elway sucks!" Now given yes I am sure there are plenty of knowledgeable fans before a bunch of Seahawk fans come on here and try to take over the thread just in the few years I was there didn't meet many that actually knew much about football. Definitely glad now to be closer to Bronco Country and getting the chance to once again dig into the little details of football that the average fan just ignores.


Now at least for me right now division wise here is how I see it finishing up...


Broncos 12-4
San Diego 9-7
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 6-10


I see Kansas City falling flat on their face this season. They lost over half their starting OL, added very little to the offense that was already pretty average, and defensively losing Flowers is going to hurt big time. I honestly jumped for joy when I saw that they released him.


With Oakland I see them showing signs of improvement (as much as I hate saying that). They are still a long ways away from fully competing and honestly not sure Free Agency went well for them as they let the little bit of young talent they had get away and replaced it with over the hill veteran talent that might have a year of decent talent left in them. The OL still looks like a patch work unit that especially early on is going to get eaten alive. It takes time to build that unity in the OL so I see Oakland struggling quite a bit at the beginning of the year. Schaub was a nice choice as they try to transition but I see him as a middle of the road quarterback who had it pretty darn good in Houston with a great offensive minded coach and some great weapons around him. He doesn't have that in Oakland so I see him having a pretty average year. Again steps in the right direction with the draft especially but they had fallen a long ways down.

 

[cdumler7]

A little off topic but just had someone point out our back ups on defense and have to say I am liking even our back up line up. As of right now...


DE: Q Smith--hasn't played a snap but from all accounts is showing some major elite speed
DT: Vickerson--Dude has started for us for quite a few years and is not being beaten out because he is a bad player but because we just have that much talent at the position
DT: Unrein/Austin--Austin has starting experience just injury concerns while Unrein has shown to be a quality situational guy for us.
DE: Wolfe/Jackson--Both guys have played well when healthy. This honestly could be one of the best competitions in Training Camp of who wins the starting role.
WLB: Johnson/Nelson--Not the strongest of positions for sure. Probably the weakest at this point in our back ups.
MLB: Barrow--I am one that has said I expect big things from this guy. If nothing else he learns for a year and should be one heck of a special teams guy.
SLB: McCray--This guy was tearing it up in the pre season last year. From what I have heard he has started where he left off making some impressive plays.
CB: Webster--Started some last year with decent results
CB: Roby--Very high potential rookie
FS: Q. Carter--Rookie year showed great promise starting at the end of the year and all accounts say he is once again showing high quality play on the field.
SS: Ihenacho--starter for us last year that was decent.


So as I count it depending who ends up getting some of the back up roles about 6 of those guys have starting experience with some of it being high quality. The rest are filled with young players with pretty decent potential. For once I have to say I am just down right impressed with the depth of this team at least on defense. We are definitely suited to handle more injuries this season than we were last year. Not that I hope we have to see if that is true but I do like what I am seeing and if nothing else should help our players stay fresh throughout the year knowing we can send in a quality back up to give them a breather.

 

[iknowftbll]

Haha I know your pain at least a little bit in I lived in Seattle the last 2 years. Thankfully moved just a bit before they won the Super Bowl so didn't have to deal with that. I couldn't believe in my time how quickly that whole city just all of a sudden became life long Seahawks fans. Heck before they became good all people wanted to talk about was their soccer team and could care less to talk about the Seahawks. Every once in a while I would find somebody when I wore my Elway jersey that would want to talk but usually the conversation didn't go much further than "Elway sucks!" Now given yes I am sure there are plenty of knowledgeable fans before a bunch of Seahawk fans come on here and try to take over the thread just in the few years I was there didn't meet many that actually knew much about football. Definitely glad now to be closer to Bronco Country and getting the chance to once again dig into the little details of football that the average fan just ignores.

I had a feeling the most vocal Seahawks fans were the fair weather ones, same as Chargers fans. That tends to be how it works. I had people getting in my face for wearing a Broncos hat and I would be out with my wife and kids. Fans know better than that. Real fans do, anyway. I reached a point where I was okay with the Broncos going through a down era, just as long as the Chargers didn't accomplish anything either. Every year they didn't win the Super Bowl was a success.

One of my favorite memories came after the divisional round of the playoffs for the 2009 season. I was in Afghanistan and got back just in time for the Broncos to close out the season on a 4 game skid and finish 8-8. The Chargers finished 13-3 and had the #2 playoff seed. A lady* from my church made certain to run her mouth after every Broncos loss/Chargers win. Then the Jets went into San Diego and upset the Chargers. That evening my wife said to this woman, "How about them Chargers!" (I never realized how much it pissed my wife off this woman ran her mouth all the time.) She flipped out. It was hilarious. The excuses, the "bad calls" the "if our kicker hadn't." When she made that excuse my wife replied, "Yeah, but he DID. He's part of the team, too." It was awesome to see how pissed off she and her mother were.

I imagine it would've been tough to be a Broncos fan in the Seattle area the day after the Super Bowl. I've come away from that season still feeling like the Broncos accomplished something special, though. And as a franchise they are still a vastly superior institution than the Seahawks. One head to head Super Bowl doesn't change that.

*This lady was all over facebook during the Super Bowl, posting stuff like, "way to go, Seahawks!" I thought she was a Chargers fan? That's the kind of fan you have in San Diego.

Now at least for me right now division wise here is how I see it finishing up...


Broncos 12-4
San Diego 9-7
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 6-10

I see Kansas City falling flat on their face this season. They lost over half their starting OL, added very little to the offense that was already pretty average, and defensively losing Flowers is going to hurt big time. I honestly jumped for joy when I saw that they released him.

We definitely agree on the Chiefs, though I've got them at 8-8, possibly 7-9. I just was not impressed with how they won last season and have to believe they would have dropped a couple of games had they not gone through a stretch in which they played 5 teams trotting out backup QBs, some of which hadn't started in years or were making their first career start. I was puzzled at the release of Flowers, but I don't presume to know more than the Chiefs brain trust. Still, I look at last year's Chiefs as an 8-8 team with an 11-5 record and don't see them really trending upward right now.

With Oakland I see them showing signs of improvement (as much as I hate saying that). They are still a long ways away from fully competing and honestly not sure Free Agency went well for them as they let the little bit of young talent they had get away and replaced it with over the hill veteran talent that might have a year of decent talent left in them. The OL still looks like a patch work unit that especially early on is going to get eaten alive. It takes time to build that unity in the OL so I see Oakland struggling quite a bit at the beginning of the year. Schaub was a nice choice as they try to transition but I see him as a middle of the road quarterback who had it pretty darn good in Houston with a great offensive minded coach and some great weapons around him. He doesn't have that in Oakland so I see him having a pretty average year. Again steps in the right direction with the draft especially but they had fallen a long ways down.

I see the Raiders as a better team this year too, but not so great they are going to survive this schedule they have. If they are smart they won't fire Dennis Allen because I have a feeling now that he's got his feet underneath him he can turn that team into a solid outfit. I can see them at 6-10 this year, 10-6 next year with one more high draft pick and Allen's direction.

 

[KwitYerWhinin]

I usually get this out shortly after the draft, but I've been a little lazy this year. But better late than never, right?

History is against the Broncos this season. It was the early 1970s the last time a team lost the Super Bowl and won it the following year. It's been the early 1990s since the losing team even made it back at all. But last year the 49ers came pretty close, and as solid as this Broncos team is, I don't see any reason they do not have a legitimate shot.

First some assumptions:

Team health. The Broncos are capable of beating every team on their schedule and being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But if the injury bug hits them like it did last year, they can easily be relegated to "bubble team" status going into week 17.

Offensive strategy: The Broncos averaged nearly 38 PPG last season. That's a tough act to follow and I don't expect the team to come close to replicating that. However I don't think they are going to need to. I believe they are going to place a higher focus on balancing the running game with the pass and as a result they are going to have lower scores.

Defensive strategy: Part of the defensive stats last year were inflated due to teams having to play catch up. But there were times the defense was just ineffective. That is somewhat to be expected considering how many starters we were missing. With that said, if this unit stays healthy the Broncos are probably going to have the best defense in the AFC, and one of the best league-wide.

Special teams: Last year was a mixed bag. Any time Trinden Holliday fielded a punt I'd hold my breath and hope for the best. There were times the coverage was pretty bad, too. If this year's special teams unit is good enough to eliminate muffed punts that's a huge win right there. I think Andre Caldwell should be the guy taking punts. He has good hands and decent size and speed.

The schedule: We already knew it was going to be a tough slate based on the opponents. When you play them and where matters. The league has configured this schedule into a pretty challenging sequence. The schedule is front loaded with home games, so health factors heavily into the later half of the season as the team plays more road games.

So here are my predictions for the season:

Week 1: vs Indianapolis Colts (SNF): Win 34-17. The Colts are one of the better teams in the AFC this year, but they have the misfortune of drawing the Broncos on kickoff weekend. The Broncos are going to be hungry for this game, eager to shake off an ugly Super Bowl loss. The Broncos came out flat last year against the Colts and still came close to winning. They are going to come out hot and it's going to be a tough one for the Colts. Broncos 1-0.

Week 2: vs Chiefs: Win 41-14. The Chiefs had a great season last year, going 11-5 after 2-14 the year prior. But what happened to them after they started playing the better teams? A team that started 9-0 finished 2-5. Color me unimpressed. I think the Chiefs take a step back this season, especially in the face of better competition. The Broncos roll in this one. Broncos 2-0.

Week 3: @ Seahawks: Loss 21-31. There will be talk of this being a "revenge game." That is utter nonsense. The only way to avenge a Super Bowl loss would be a repeat of last year's Super Bowl with the Broncos coming out on top this time. This game is just a regular season game and the first road game of the season for the Broncos. A win would be a huge statement, but a loss will have all the detractors pontificating about how the Broncos are not legit contenders. Broncos 2-1.

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: vs Cardinals: Win 27-13. The Cardinals were one of the more under-rated teams last season. They bring a will bring a stout defense and emerging offense into this contest. Still they are not a better team than the Broncos, who will be coming off a loss and a bye. Broncos 3-1.

Week 6: @ Jets: Win 31-17. The Jets are simply not on the Broncos level. Broncos cruise through this one. Broncos 4-1.

Week 7: vs 49ers (SNF): Win 26-16. The Broncos are going to have their work cut out for them in this one. The 49ers play a very physical style of offense and defense alike. A win will help the Broncos shed their image of being a finesse team. Broncos 5-1.

Week 8: vs Chargers (TNF): Loss 20-24. To play on Sunday Night Football and turn right around and play Thursday Night Football against a solid team like the Chargers is asking a lot, even for a contender like the Broncos. The Chargers won in near identical circumstances late in the 2013 season and are able to catch the Broncos on a bad week here. Broncos 5-2.

Week 9: @ Patriots: Loss 24-31. I will never understand all this talk about Tom Brady no longer being an elite QB. I've read a lot about this in the past few months and just don't see it. I don't think the Patriots are a better team than the Broncos, but playing this one in their own house will be enough to make the difference. Broncos 5-3.

Week 10: @ Raiders: Win 41-14. The Raiders may be on the brink of turning the corner. They are finally playing with a full deck, draftwise and don't have the dead money problems left over from the Al Davis years. But this year they have an unusually tough schedule and their improvements may not translate into wins this season. The team would be wise to keep Reggie and Denis Allen around beyond this season. Broncos 6-3.

Week 11: @ Rams: Win 28-17. The third consecutive road game for the Broncos and against a team that may have been a 9 or 10 game winner in any other NFC division last year. The Rams have a solid defense and always seem on the brink of greatness on offense. Still they are just not as strong a team as the Broncos and it will show in this one. Broncos 7-3.

Week 12: vs Dolphins: Win 41-10. A home game after three consecutive road games is going to be refreshing. Against a lesser opponent like the Dolphins and this one has the makings of a blowout win. Broncos 8-3.

Week 13: @ Chiefs (SNF): loss 27-28. While I may not be impressed with the Chiefs, I still recognize they are usually a tough team to beat in Kansas City. The Broncos have won 3 straight in Kansas City, a trend the Chiefs would like to halt. This year they do. Broncos 8-4.

Week 14: vs Bills: Win 35-10. The Bills did show some signs of life last season, but just couldn't keep it going. But even if they are able to continue to improve, the Broncos are a far superior team. It will show in this one. Broncos 9-4.

Week 15: @ Chargers: Win 24-21. I expect the Chargers will still be in the running for the AFC West title at this point, so this game will bring huge playoff seeding implications. It'll be a hard fought game, but the Broncos will avenger their earlier loss. Broncos 10-4.

Week 16: @ Bengals: Win 27-13. The Bengals defense may be able to slow the Broncos offense down, but I doubt they'll be able to contain them for a whole game. The Broncos pull away after the half. Broncos 11-4.

Week 17: vs Raiders: Win 37-13. Like last season's finale, the Broncos will do most of their damage in the first half and probably pull some of the key players in the second half. I believe they are going to have their playoff seed locked up at this point, unload on the Raiders in the first half, then put it in cruise to close out the regular season. Broncos final record: 12-4.

A record of 12-4 against this schedule reflects a few things. First, their offense is still the best in the league. Secondly, their defense is going to be a contributing factor especially late in the season. The Broncos will score 484 points and surrender 289. Manning will pass for about 4,800 yards, 40 TDs, and under 10 picks. Monte Ball will lead the Broncos in rushing, going for nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and 7 or 8 TDs.

But a look at the Patriots and the Colts schedules tells me the Broncos at 12-4 will be the #3 playoff seed. I see the playoffs shaping up like this:

Patriots: 14-2
Colts: 13-3
Broncos: 12-4
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6
Chargers 11-5*
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6

The Chargers schedule looks highly favorable, but the last 5-6 weeks are brutal. It is possible they close out the season on a 4 or 5 game skid but still make the playoffs due to winning enough games early.

AFC West predicted finish:

Broncos: 12-4
Chargers: 11-5
Chiefs: 8-8
Raiders: 5-11

Your thoughts?

While I don't necessarily predict the Bronco's with a record much better than 12-4, I don't see any chance at all that they lose to the Chiefs especially, as well as the Chargers. I also don't understand all the love for New England. I think people are just accustomed to touting them and fail to see how little talent they truly have. I'm well aware that most people would disagree with this assessment, but if it weren't for the AFC East, I think the Pats are a 7-9 team. The Bronco's certainly will lose some games, frankly I hope they do for their sake, I just don't think it will be to those three teams. I also think the Raiders will be much stronger than people give them credit for.

Chargers 9-7
Raiders 7-9
Chiefs 5-11...and that's being optimistic ..they will likely go 1-6 in the AFC West, with the single win being against the Chargers.

 

[iknowftbll]

While I don't necessarily predict the Bronco's with a record much better than 12-4, I don't see any chance at all that they lose to the Chiefs especially, as well as the Chargers. I also don't understand all the love for New England. I think people are just accustomed to touting them and fail to see how little talent they truly have. I'm well aware that most people would disagree with this assessment, but if it weren't for the AFC East, I think the Pats are a 7-9 team. The Bronco's certainly will lose some games, frankly I hope they do for their sake, I just don't think it will be to those three teams. I also think the Raiders will be much stronger than people give them credit for.

Chargers 9-7
Raiders 7-9
Chiefs 5-11...and that's being optimistic ..they will likely go 1-6 in the AFC West, with the single win being against the Chargers.

But the Pats ARE in the AFC East where an 8-8 finish would be considered a good finish for any of the Jets, Phins, or Bills. One of them may pull an upset over the Pats, but I doubt it. Outside of their own division the Patriots have the AFC West and the NFC North. They are better than the 4 NFC teams and better than at least the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. I'm not saying they have an easy schedule, but I definitely can see them hitting 14-2 or 13-3. Same with the Colts. I think they are on the brink of taking a major step forward after two solid 11-5 seasons.

It is hard to pick a Pats win over the Broncos, though, I agree with that. The Broncos will have 10 days to recover from their SNF-TNF games and put in the extra work for the Pats. It won't surprise me if the Broncos nail them, really. Same with the Chargers and Chiefs. The truth is this Broncos team can beat any on their schedule, even the Seahawks. But we all know they are going to drop some games. Maybe even some games we expected them to win, hence my rationale for the 4 losses.

 

[iknowftbll]

Now that the regular season is over it's time to revisit this thread. Take a look at some of my predictions. I was fairly close on a few. I nailed the record, though that's actually one of the easier ones to get right. The combination of wins and losses I didn't get right, but the 12-4 is there. I nailed one score (Broncos 31, Jets 17) and came pretty close on Manning's numbers (predicted ~4800 yards, 40+ TDs, under 10 picks; actual 4727 yards, 39 TDs, 15 picks) and missed entirely on Monte Ball. I predicted 484 points for the Broncos (they earned 482) and 289 against (they surrendered 354).

Overall, not too shabby. I'm glad to say I whiffed on the Chargers, giving them way too much credit and predicting them an 11-5 team.

I also have to admit the 9-7 Chiefs turned out to be a slightly better team than I expected them to be.

The Raiders I believe would have been a better team (and would be a better team next year) had they not fired DA. With that said, we have no way of knowing, so I'll just be happy they suck and finished 3-13!

 

[cdumler7]

Well I nailed them laying a stinker against the Rams! Well not sure that actually excites me that much but it is fun looking back. Definitely missed on the Broncos getting revenge on the Seahawks though. And missed on the Chiefs. I honestly think this was one of Andy Reids better coaching jobs of his career as talent wise the Chiefs against this kind of schedule were not as good as their record.


Also definitely nailed the Chargers record. So 2 of the 4 teams in the division got them right. Gave the Raiders way too much credit but should have thought through that it would take time for the rookies to develop.