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iknowftbll
Well-Known Member
I usually get this out shortly after the draft, but I've been a little lazy this year. But better late than never, right?
History is against the Broncos this season. It was the early 1970s the last time a team lost the Super Bowl and won it the following year. It's been the early 1990s since the losing team even made it back at all. But last year the 49ers came pretty close, and as solid as this Broncos team is, I don't see any reason they do not have a legitimate shot.
First some assumptions:
Team health. The Broncos are capable of beating every team on their schedule and being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But if the injury bug hits them like it did last year, they can easily be relegated to "bubble team" status going into week 17.
Offensive strategy: The Broncos averaged nearly 38 PPG last season. That's a tough act to follow and I don't expect the team to come close to replicating that. However I don't think they are going to need to. I believe they are going to place a higher focus on balancing the running game with the pass and as a result they are going to have lower scores.
Defensive strategy: Part of the defensive stats last year were inflated due to teams having to play catch up. But there were times the defense was just ineffective. That is somewhat to be expected considering how many starters we were missing. With that said, if this unit stays healthy the Broncos are probably going to have the best defense in the AFC, and one of the best league-wide.
Special teams: Last year was a mixed bag. Any time Trinden Holliday fielded a punt I'd hold my breath and hope for the best. There were times the coverage was pretty bad, too. If this year's special teams unit is good enough to eliminate muffed punts that's a huge win right there. I think Andre Caldwell should be the guy taking punts. He has good hands and decent size and speed.
The schedule: We already knew it was going to be a tough slate based on the opponents. When you play them and where matters. The league has configured this schedule into a pretty challenging sequence. The schedule is front loaded with home games, so health factors heavily into the later half of the season as the team plays more road games.
So here are my predictions for the season:
Week 1: vs Indianapolis Colts (SNF): Win 34-17. The Colts are one of the better teams in the AFC this year, but they have the misfortune of drawing the Broncos on kickoff weekend. The Broncos are going to be hungry for this game, eager to shake off an ugly Super Bowl loss. The Broncos came out flat last year against the Colts and still came close to winning. They are going to come out hot and it's going to be a tough one for the Colts. Broncos 1-0.
Week 2: vs Chiefs: Win 41-14. The Chiefs had a great season last year, going 11-5 after 2-14 the year prior. But what happened to them after they started playing the better teams? A team that started 9-0 finished 2-5. Color me unimpressed. I think the Chiefs take a step back this season, especially in the face of better competition. The Broncos roll in this one. Broncos 2-0.
Week 3: @ Seahawks: Loss 21-31. There will be talk of this being a "revenge game." That is utter nonsense. The only way to avenge a Super Bowl loss would be a repeat of last year's Super Bowl with the Broncos coming out on top this time. This game is just a regular season game and the first road game of the season for the Broncos. A win would be a huge statement, but a loss will have all the detractors pontificating about how the Broncos are not legit contenders. Broncos 2-1.
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: vs Cardinals: Win 27-13. The Cardinals were one of the more under-rated teams last season. They bring a will bring a stout defense and emerging offense into this contest. Still they are not a better team than the Broncos, who will be coming off a loss and a bye. Broncos 3-1.
Week 6: @ Jets: Win 31-17. The Jets are simply not on the Broncos level. Broncos cruise through this one. Broncos 4-1.
Week 7: vs 49ers (SNF): Win 26-16. The Broncos are going to have their work cut out for them in this one. The 49ers play a very physical style of offense and defense alike. A win will help the Broncos shed their image of being a finesse team. Broncos 5-1.
Week 8: vs Chargers (TNF): Loss 20-24. To play on Sunday Night Football and turn right around and play Thursday Night Football against a solid team like the Chargers is asking a lot, even for a contender like the Broncos. The Chargers won in near identical circumstances late in the 2013 season and are able to catch the Broncos on a bad week here. Broncos 5-2.
Week 9: @ Patriots: Loss 24-31. I will never understand all this talk about Tom Brady no longer being an elite QB. I've read a lot about this in the past few months and just don't see it. I don't think the Patriots are a better team than the Broncos, but playing this one in their own house will be enough to make the difference. Broncos 5-3.
Week 10: @ Raiders: Win 41-14. The Raiders may be on the brink of turning the corner. They are finally playing with a full deck, draftwise and don't have the dead money problems left over from the Al Davis years. But this year they have an unusually tough schedule and their improvements may not translate into wins this season. The team would be wise to keep Reggie and Denis Allen around beyond this season. Broncos 6-3.
Week 11: @ Rams: Win 28-17. The third consecutive road game for the Broncos and against a team that may have been a 9 or 10 game winner in any other NFC division last year. The Rams have a solid defense and always seem on the brink of greatness on offense. Still they are just not as strong a team as the Broncos and it will show in this one. Broncos 7-3.
Week 12: vs Dolphins: Win 41-10. A home game after three consecutive road games is going to be refreshing. Against a lesser opponent like the Dolphins and this one has the makings of a blowout win. Broncos 8-3.
Week 13: @ Chiefs (SNF): loss 27-28. While I may not be impressed with the Chiefs, I still recognize they are usually a tough team to beat in Kansas City. The Broncos have won 3 straight in Kansas City, a trend the Chiefs would like to halt. This year they do. Broncos 8-4.
Week 14: vs Bills: Win 35-10. The Bills did show some signs of life last season, but just couldn't keep it going. But even if they are able to continue to improve, the Broncos are a far superior team. It will show in this one. Broncos 9-4.
Week 15: @ Chargers: Win 24-21. I expect the Chargers will still be in the running for the AFC West title at this point, so this game will bring huge playoff seeding implications. It'll be a hard fought game, but the Broncos will avenger their earlier loss. Broncos 10-4.
Week 16: @ Bengals: Win 27-13. The Bengals defense may be able to slow the Broncos offense down, but I doubt they'll be able to contain them for a whole game. The Broncos pull away after the half. Broncos 11-4.
Week 17: vs Raiders: Win 37-13. Like last season's finale, the Broncos will do most of their damage in the first half and probably pull some of the key players in the second half. I believe they are going to have their playoff seed locked up at this point, unload on the Raiders in the first half, then put it in cruise to close out the regular season. Broncos final record: 12-4.
A record of 12-4 against this schedule reflects a few things. First, their offense is still the best in the league. Secondly, their defense is going to be a contributing factor especially late in the season. The Broncos will score 484 points and surrender 289. Manning will pass for about 4,800 yards, 40 TDs, and under 10 picks. Monte Ball will lead the Broncos in rushing, going for nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and 7 or 8 TDs.
But a look at the Patriots and the Colts schedules tells me the Broncos at 12-4 will be the #3 playoff seed. I see the playoffs shaping up like this:
Patriots: 14-2
Colts: 13-3
Broncos: 12-4
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6
Chargers 11-5*
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6
The Chargers schedule looks highly favorable, but the last 5-6 weeks are brutal. It is possible they close out the season on a 4 or 5 game skid but still make the playoffs due to winning enough games early.
AFC West predicted finish:
Broncos: 12-4
Chargers: 11-5
Chiefs: 8-8
Raiders: 5-11
Your thoughts?
History is against the Broncos this season. It was the early 1970s the last time a team lost the Super Bowl and won it the following year. It's been the early 1990s since the losing team even made it back at all. But last year the 49ers came pretty close, and as solid as this Broncos team is, I don't see any reason they do not have a legitimate shot.
First some assumptions:
Team health. The Broncos are capable of beating every team on their schedule and being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But if the injury bug hits them like it did last year, they can easily be relegated to "bubble team" status going into week 17.
Offensive strategy: The Broncos averaged nearly 38 PPG last season. That's a tough act to follow and I don't expect the team to come close to replicating that. However I don't think they are going to need to. I believe they are going to place a higher focus on balancing the running game with the pass and as a result they are going to have lower scores.
Defensive strategy: Part of the defensive stats last year were inflated due to teams having to play catch up. But there were times the defense was just ineffective. That is somewhat to be expected considering how many starters we were missing. With that said, if this unit stays healthy the Broncos are probably going to have the best defense in the AFC, and one of the best league-wide.
Special teams: Last year was a mixed bag. Any time Trinden Holliday fielded a punt I'd hold my breath and hope for the best. There were times the coverage was pretty bad, too. If this year's special teams unit is good enough to eliminate muffed punts that's a huge win right there. I think Andre Caldwell should be the guy taking punts. He has good hands and decent size and speed.
The schedule: We already knew it was going to be a tough slate based on the opponents. When you play them and where matters. The league has configured this schedule into a pretty challenging sequence. The schedule is front loaded with home games, so health factors heavily into the later half of the season as the team plays more road games.
So here are my predictions for the season:
Week 1: vs Indianapolis Colts (SNF): Win 34-17. The Colts are one of the better teams in the AFC this year, but they have the misfortune of drawing the Broncos on kickoff weekend. The Broncos are going to be hungry for this game, eager to shake off an ugly Super Bowl loss. The Broncos came out flat last year against the Colts and still came close to winning. They are going to come out hot and it's going to be a tough one for the Colts. Broncos 1-0.
Week 2: vs Chiefs: Win 41-14. The Chiefs had a great season last year, going 11-5 after 2-14 the year prior. But what happened to them after they started playing the better teams? A team that started 9-0 finished 2-5. Color me unimpressed. I think the Chiefs take a step back this season, especially in the face of better competition. The Broncos roll in this one. Broncos 2-0.
Week 3: @ Seahawks: Loss 21-31. There will be talk of this being a "revenge game." That is utter nonsense. The only way to avenge a Super Bowl loss would be a repeat of last year's Super Bowl with the Broncos coming out on top this time. This game is just a regular season game and the first road game of the season for the Broncos. A win would be a huge statement, but a loss will have all the detractors pontificating about how the Broncos are not legit contenders. Broncos 2-1.
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: vs Cardinals: Win 27-13. The Cardinals were one of the more under-rated teams last season. They bring a will bring a stout defense and emerging offense into this contest. Still they are not a better team than the Broncos, who will be coming off a loss and a bye. Broncos 3-1.
Week 6: @ Jets: Win 31-17. The Jets are simply not on the Broncos level. Broncos cruise through this one. Broncos 4-1.
Week 7: vs 49ers (SNF): Win 26-16. The Broncos are going to have their work cut out for them in this one. The 49ers play a very physical style of offense and defense alike. A win will help the Broncos shed their image of being a finesse team. Broncos 5-1.
Week 8: vs Chargers (TNF): Loss 20-24. To play on Sunday Night Football and turn right around and play Thursday Night Football against a solid team like the Chargers is asking a lot, even for a contender like the Broncos. The Chargers won in near identical circumstances late in the 2013 season and are able to catch the Broncos on a bad week here. Broncos 5-2.
Week 9: @ Patriots: Loss 24-31. I will never understand all this talk about Tom Brady no longer being an elite QB. I've read a lot about this in the past few months and just don't see it. I don't think the Patriots are a better team than the Broncos, but playing this one in their own house will be enough to make the difference. Broncos 5-3.
Week 10: @ Raiders: Win 41-14. The Raiders may be on the brink of turning the corner. They are finally playing with a full deck, draftwise and don't have the dead money problems left over from the Al Davis years. But this year they have an unusually tough schedule and their improvements may not translate into wins this season. The team would be wise to keep Reggie and Denis Allen around beyond this season. Broncos 6-3.
Week 11: @ Rams: Win 28-17. The third consecutive road game for the Broncos and against a team that may have been a 9 or 10 game winner in any other NFC division last year. The Rams have a solid defense and always seem on the brink of greatness on offense. Still they are just not as strong a team as the Broncos and it will show in this one. Broncos 7-3.
Week 12: vs Dolphins: Win 41-10. A home game after three consecutive road games is going to be refreshing. Against a lesser opponent like the Dolphins and this one has the makings of a blowout win. Broncos 8-3.
Week 13: @ Chiefs (SNF): loss 27-28. While I may not be impressed with the Chiefs, I still recognize they are usually a tough team to beat in Kansas City. The Broncos have won 3 straight in Kansas City, a trend the Chiefs would like to halt. This year they do. Broncos 8-4.
Week 14: vs Bills: Win 35-10. The Bills did show some signs of life last season, but just couldn't keep it going. But even if they are able to continue to improve, the Broncos are a far superior team. It will show in this one. Broncos 9-4.
Week 15: @ Chargers: Win 24-21. I expect the Chargers will still be in the running for the AFC West title at this point, so this game will bring huge playoff seeding implications. It'll be a hard fought game, but the Broncos will avenger their earlier loss. Broncos 10-4.
Week 16: @ Bengals: Win 27-13. The Bengals defense may be able to slow the Broncos offense down, but I doubt they'll be able to contain them for a whole game. The Broncos pull away after the half. Broncos 11-4.
Week 17: vs Raiders: Win 37-13. Like last season's finale, the Broncos will do most of their damage in the first half and probably pull some of the key players in the second half. I believe they are going to have their playoff seed locked up at this point, unload on the Raiders in the first half, then put it in cruise to close out the regular season. Broncos final record: 12-4.
A record of 12-4 against this schedule reflects a few things. First, their offense is still the best in the league. Secondly, their defense is going to be a contributing factor especially late in the season. The Broncos will score 484 points and surrender 289. Manning will pass for about 4,800 yards, 40 TDs, and under 10 picks. Monte Ball will lead the Broncos in rushing, going for nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and 7 or 8 TDs.
But a look at the Patriots and the Colts schedules tells me the Broncos at 12-4 will be the #3 playoff seed. I see the playoffs shaping up like this:
Patriots: 14-2
Colts: 13-3
Broncos: 12-4
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6
Chargers 11-5*
Steelers, Ravens, Bengals: 10-6
The Chargers schedule looks highly favorable, but the last 5-6 weeks are brutal. It is possible they close out the season on a 4 or 5 game skid but still make the playoffs due to winning enough games early.
AFC West predicted finish:
Broncos: 12-4
Chargers: 11-5
Chiefs: 8-8
Raiders: 5-11
Your thoughts?