Super Bowl 51: Patriots -3 Over ATL

[soxfan1468927]

Atlanta played the 2nd best defensive schedule in the league.

Oh please, based on what? Yards?

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Oh please, based on what? Yards?

Did you watch that Arsenal/Burnley game on Sunday?

 

[Carnzo]

This game will likely be one of the highest scoring Super Bowl game ever. It's just hilarious to listen to you guys " oh BB will figure something out to stop Atlanta". Lol.

Laughing out loud at anyone who discounts our Dark Lord Bill Belichick.
<In deepest voice, you will pay the price for doubt>

 

[soxfan1468927]

Did you watch that Arsenal/Burnley game on Sunday?

No I was too depressed after the Liverpool loss to Swansea. I saw that Burnley had drawn even only because one of the local sports guys tweeted about it not being a bad week for Liverpool in the standings, since Tottenham and ManCity also drew. Then I checked later and saw Arsenal scored late.

 

[rmilia1]

Yeah I'm an idiot. I was looking at the wrong year when I plugged in the games missed number. Okay let me change my point:

34.1 points per game when he catches 5+ receptions, 34.9 points per game when he catches 0-4.

In those 8 games, you faced the 15th, 31st, 4th, 21st, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, and 26th ranked defense in PPG allowed. The only time you faced a top 10 defense that shut down Julio Jones, Falcons scored 23 points. Sounds like a recipe for success.

OK so I know people love scoring defense and I get why but I prefer total defense because that's a better indicator of how easy it is to move the ball on a team. Scoring defense is more an indicator of how inept a teams offense is ( putting their D in bad field position or turning it over ) and it's an indicator of a teams red zone proficiency ( which is important). However all that is dependent more on the opposing offenses ability to score. New England simply hasn't played any elite offenses this year. Pitt is the best and they were without Ben and then Bell in those 2 games. Seattle is probably the next best and they dropped 31. Your point is valid but skewed imo.

 

[rmilia1]

Oh please, based on what? Yards?

DVOA.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

No I was too depressed after the Liverpool loss to Swansea. I saw that Burnley had drawn even only because one of the local sports guys tweeted about it not being a bad week for Liverpool in the standings, since Tottenham and ManCity also drew. Then I checked later and saw Arsenal scored late.

yeah, that was an awful loss...First time ever Swansea won at Anfield........With Coutino back, they should be able to start scoring again, they were going through that ugly drought that plagued them last year

 

[soxfan1468927]

OK so I know people love scoring defense and I get why but I prefer total defense because that's a better indicator of how easy it is to move the ball on a team. Scoring defense is more an indicator of how inept a teams offense is ( putting their D in bad field position or turning it over ) and it's an indicator of a teams red zone proficiency ( which is important). However all that is dependent more on the opposing offenses ability to score. New England simply hasn't played any elite offenses this year. Pitt is the best and they were without Ben and then Bell in those 2 games. Seattle is probably the next best and they dropped 31. Your point is valid but skewed imo.

I like points allowed because that's the point of the game. If we're going by defensive yards allowed, then the Rams are a top 10 defense. And the Pats will have had 11 of their 18 games played against defenses in the top 12. And if offensive yards is your measuring stick, the Pats played a top 10 offense in Arizona.

It will certainly be the best offense we've faced all year in two weeks. No denying that.

 

[soxfan1468927]

DVOA.

Oh good, we are putting weight into DVOA?

Falcons are have the 23rd best offense in the last 28 seasons according to DVOA, so not historic. And the Pats offense is currently playing better than Atlanta based on Weighted DVOA. According to weighted DVOA, the Pats are playing better offensively, defensively, and better on special teams.

 

[flyingelvis]

OK so I know people love scoring defense and I get why but I prefer total defense because that's a better indicator of how easy it is to move the ball on a team. Scoring defense is more an indicator of how inept a teams offense is ( putting their D in bad field position or turning it over ) and it's an indicator of a teams red zone proficiency ( which is important). However all that is dependent more on the opposing offenses ability to score. New England simply hasn't played any elite offenses this year. Pitt is the best and they were without Ben and then Bell in those 2 games. Seattle is probably the next best and they dropped 31. Your point is valid but skewed imo.

Completely backwards. Who had the best defense based on yards this season? Houston. Why? Because of their inept offense turning the ball over and leaving a short field for the defense to defend. So yeah, they gave up less yards and more TDs. So this is a better indicator than a team that forced the opposing offense to travel between the 20s and kick FGs?

 

[Hank Kingsley]

Butler was on Antonio Brown with help on the top from McCourty. But this is probably because BB didn't respect the Steelers secondary receivers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Logan Ryan on Julio Jones with the same help on top. And Butler on an island with Sanu.

I have no idea, but don't assume Belichick to do the expected and put Butler on Jones.

The Pats will look to shut down the big plays and force Ryan to dink and dunk down the field. Then force FGs. This is how they play defense.

Jones might be too large for the smallish Butler. I think Ryan or Rowe with help gets Jones.

 

[rmilia1]

Oh good, we are putting weight into DVOA?

Falcons are have the 23rd best offense in the last 28 seasons according to DVOA, so not historic. And the Pats offense is currently playing better than Atlanta based on Weighted DVOA. According to weighted DVOA, the Pats are playing better offensively, defensively, and better on special teams.

Um no??... Where are you getting those numbers? Lol. Atlanta finished with the 9th best DVOA since the merger and in the top 99.5% of all offenses ever

 

[soxfan1468927]

Um no??... Where are you getting those numbers? Lol. Atlanta finished with the 9th best DVOA since the merger and in the top 99.5% of all offenses ever

Their offensive DVOA was 25.3%. List of offensives with a higher DVOA in just the last 10 seasons:

2013 Broncos
2012 Patriots
2011 Packers
2011 Saints
2011 Patriots
2010 Patriots
2009 Patriots
2007 Patriots

And 9th best since the merger? Offensive or total? Because they didn't even have the highest DVOA this year if it's total.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Um no??... Where are you getting those numbers? Lol. Atlanta finished with the 9th best DVOA since the merger and in the top 99.5% of all offenses ever

So where are you getting your numbers?

 

[rmilia1]

So where are you getting your numbers?

Football Outsiders and I'm talking offense not total.

 

[molsaniceman]

So where are you getting your numbers?

out of his ass

 

[Rex Racer]

Atlanta played the 2nd best defensive schedule in the league.

That would be a nifty trick since Tampa, New Orleans, Carolina, Washington, San Diego, Green Bay and Oakland all have weak defenses. All of them rank in the bottom half (or worse) in the two most important defensive metrics, yards per game and points per game and those teams accounted for 10 of the 16 games on their schedule.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Football Outsiders and I'm talking offense not total.

Yeah I'm getting them from footballoutsiders as well, and those offenses all have a higher DVOA than the Falcons in the last 10 years.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Football Outsiders and I'm talking offense not total.

I was being generous by the way, they actually have the 26 ranked offense since 1989.

 

[rmilia1]

I was being generous by the way, they actually have the 26 ranked offense since 1989.

No.