Strength of Schedule

[MHSL82]

Yes, you play 82 games. 41 at Home, 41 on the Road.

End thread.

Boring.

Now that we got that out of the way, Larry Bird:

Jazz are 8-13 against teams with a better record (not counting games we played).
Jazz are 5-2 against teams with the same record (not counting games we played).
Jazz are 7-5 against teams with a worse record (not counting games we played).

For example, the Kings are 19-20. So worse record, right? Yes, but the Jazz are 2-1 against them. Removing the Jazz-Kings games, they are 18-18 - the same as the 20-20 Jazz.

So the Jazz have 8 wins against teams we "should" lose to and 7 losses to teams we "should" beat. We are ahead of the game - even though we "should" be better, in my opinion anyway. But much of that goes beyond wins and losses.

The Jazz are the better team, I think, at least this year? The Kings are improving. But I wanted to see us against others without us affecting the results.

The Jazz have 18 games against teams with a better record (not counting games we played). (6.85)
The Jazz have 3 games left against teams with the same record (not counting games we played). (2.14)
The Jazz have 21 games left against teams with a worse record (not counting games we played). (12.25)

6.85+2.14+12.25 = 21 wins. 21 + 20 = 41. Boo. So we must actually play better to win.

I have a question: If I did this for all teams, would we necessarily end up with the same winning percentage? Yes.

So, you are right, Mr. Bird.

Sorry to waste your time.

 

[MHSL82]

We are 5-2 against 500 teams. 7-5 against worse teams. I was expecting to be around 10-11 against teams above .500. Hoping for 11-10.

If I were expecting a step-up this year, 10-11 or 9-12 against +.500 teams. We will play 18 more games against these teams. 18 + 21 = 39. 39 split is 20-19 or 19-20. Let's say 19-20. We need to go 11-7 the rest of the way.

5-2 against .500 teams - since we are a .500 team with potential to play better, I want to have the edge. So 10 games by the end of the season. We need to win 6. That's just one more to have (at worst) a 6-4 record against .500 teams. (Yes, they, too could have potential, but whatever, they are not my team.)

9-3 against sub-500 teams (my expectation) works out to be .750. Maybe 9-3? We will have played 33 teams sub-500 by the end of the season (based upon current standings). So we'd need to be 25-8. I don't think we will go 18-3 the rest of the way. Maybe 15-6?

So what I "want" our current record to be is 26-14. Hahaha, sounds stupid now. Maybe 22-18 would have been reasonable given the "Schedule" - even though we've lost too many against so-so teams (yes, we're so-so, too).

Expecting too much? Maybe. But now we need to go 28-14 to get to last year's record.

11-7 and 1-2 (at least) and 15-6 - 27-15. Plus 20-20 now = 47-35. Worse record. So let's go 3-0 against .500 teams, 10-8 against .500+, and 15-6 against sub .500.

Deal?

:P

 

[MHSL82]

Larry Bird says this thread is still boring. Even more so. Pfft, what does he know?