Spring Training Thread

[lasportzphan]

I'm not sure if Greinke will stick around honestly, I don't think the front office enjoys signing guys to large contracts. I can see them flipping anyone not named Kershaw, Puig and our top prospects.

It's hard to speculate on Greinke right now.... if his elbow flares up again and they have to shut him down for a multiple starts or his production dips this season, he may have a hard time getting a better deal.

I must add the caveat, I have no idea what the free agent pitching market looks like in 2015/2016. At first glance, Cueto was the only name that jumped out at me. With that in mind, Greinke might be able to command huge dollars if the market is as weak as I suspect.

 

[LASports96]

Fair enough.... Kendrick may not be a long term option. So I am hoping Guerrero can figure out his fielding issue before then.

Good read in the Times about Seager:

Corey Seager impresses Dodgers with his maturity - LA Times

If this kid pans out, Kershaw's arm remains intact and Grienke sticks around - we have a nice core over the next few years. Maybe in three years we can be in the World Series!

World Series this year.

 

[lasportzphan]

World Series this year.

Well, I'll need to see this bullpen and batting order before I claim a WS appearance this year.

 

[LALakersboy24.7]

We need to Find Alex Guerrero some REAL playing time already. I don't care if you have to kick Juan Uribe to the curb, Alex Guerrero NEEDS everyday playing time RIGHT NOW.

 

[Chilipepper]

Sure a lot of good hitters now. What tough choices to make. Turner and Van Slyke deserve a lot of playing time just to name two. Pretty much all the new kids are shinning too. Dodgers are deep with hitters. In case of injuries I am not worried too much. The starting pitching looks better. The bullpen will still be the weakest spot but has improved. J Howel has to be let go for sure. He still has big time velocity issues.

 

[lasportzphan]

I don't think either of those players played a factor in not going after Moncada. Guerrero is bench fodor regardless, and Seager is playing SS next year regardless too.

I do think the Dodgers will perhaps sign Hector Olivera, the other Cuban 3B soon to become a free agent.

I never like to say I told you so, but I told you so:

'Comfortable' Alex Guerrero adds shortstop to utility belt - True Blue LA

 

[LASports96]

"comfortable" exactly, you don't want him at SS.

 

[lasportzphan]

"comfortable" exactly, you don't want him at SS.

Seager has 12 at bats this Spring Training, so I do not see him making the opening day roster. He needs more seasoning. Arrubruena is the shits at the plate, I hope he does not make the team. We have a log jam at second base with Kendrick, Barney and Guerrero.

Uribe is no longer an every day third baseman and he will end up on the DL multiple times this season for being too fat. I imagine Turner will see some time at third because of this.

Guerrero is putting up solid numbers, so I hope he works out at SS. Rollins is at the point in his career where time off will do him well from week to week.

Pint being, it would be a shame to lose out on Guerrero because we can't send him down. I'd like to seem him get a fair shake.

 

[Villain]

We need to Find Alex Guerrero some REAL playing time already. I don't care if you have to kick Juan Uribe to the curb, Alex Guerrero NEEDS everyday playing time RIGHT NOW.

I agree with that, which is why I'd be very happy with him if he decided to accept a trip to the minors. I disagree that he should be starting ahead of Uribe, though.

 

[lasportzphan]

Ryu shut down with shoulder issue.... Hope it's not the rotator cuff.

 

[LASports96]

If Ryu misses the first month it's fine, but if it's something worse that requires surgery, well that's obviously not good.

Apparently we'll find out the MRI results tonight, let's hope for good things.

 

[Villain]

Ryu shut down with shoulder issue.... Hope it's not the rotator cuff.

LOL, everyone always thinks "rotator cuff" whenever there's a shoulder injury or pain.

 

[lasportzphan]

LOL, everyone always thinks "rotator cuff" whenever there's a shoulder injury or pain.

Or torn labrum? Point being, he's had some many MRIs and issues with it, you hope it did not tear. Had he not had so many issues, I'd just assume swelling/inflammation. I've had a torn labrum and until I fixed it I had swelling and constant set backs. But I also was misdiagnosed with a rotator cuff tear.

 

[Villain]

Or torn labrum? Point being, he's had some many MRIs and issues with it, you hope it did not tear. Had he not had so many issues, I'd just assume swelling/inflammation. I've had a torn labrum and until I fixed it I had swelling and constant set backs. But I also was misdiagnosed with a rotator cuff tear.

Yeah, I know what you meant. Sorry, wasn't trying to be dismissive. Mrs. Villain is a physical therapist so I always crack up when people tell her "oh I think I wrecked my rotator cuff at the gym" and then they point to their trap or AC joint or something.

 

[LASports96]

Paco Rodriguez looks great.

 

[LALakersboy24.7]

Puig has 4 Hr's in the past week, and looks like Ether is playing pretty well. I am excited to see also Joc doing well. It will be interesting to see if we can stay healthy, but we do have a very deep team.

 

[lasportzphan]

Nice read....

Dodgers plan meets regular-season reality

 

[lasportzphan]

• 
  
  Joe Peta, ESPN Chalk

ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism. Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason for optimism: Strength of schedule differences may hide it by season's end, but the Dodgers (not the Nationals) have the best team in baseball.

Reason for pessimism: Neither Pittsburgh nor Chicago may be good enough to keep St. Louis from the playoffs.

Is it even possible that a team with the largest payroll in baseball history (over $272 million, per Cot's Contracts) coming off two straight division titles while averaging 93 wins a year, and in possession of the most dominant starting pitcher since Pedro Martinez, could possibly be overlooked and underrated entering the 2015 season? It looks that way due to a variety of factors:

1) The Dodgers reside in the division of the San Francisco Giants, a team that's won the World Series crown three times in the past five seasons -- including in 2014.


2) Despite 186 total regular-season wins the past two years, the Dodgers have gone 3-7 against the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs, with the aforementioned Clayton Kershawgoing an inconceivable 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA in those two series.

3) The Washington Nationals, by signing Max Scherzer to a 7-year, $210 million contract, have become the choice of National League oddsmakers.

4) The Dodgers' most notable offseason move, trading former MVP runner-up Matt Kemp to the Padres, involved the jettisoning of a big name.

I think there is a case to be made that the Dodgers are still the best team in baseball. Behind the Rockies, the Dodgers were the highest-scoring team in the NL last season, no small feat when you consider their home environment. Instead, consider it from this perspective: The Dodgers were by far the highest-scoring team in the NL on the road. Yes, they played nine games in Colorado and Arizona, but they also played that many in San Francisco and San Diego. That run-scoring production wasn't a fluke, either -- the Dodgers actually had a mild strain of negative cluster luck over the course of the season.

So how does last year's best-in-league offense stack up with this year's version? Pretty well, even if it's not quite as potent. First, the trade of Kemp brought over Yasmani Grandal, who will take over the starting catching duties from A.J. Ellis. That's significant because the 1 hole in the Dodgers' lineup last season was at catcher, where they got league-worst production of .181/.283/.261. (Yes, that's a slugging percentage 22 points below the on-base percentage.)

Elsewhere, despite the very serviceable job Dee Gordon did last year at second base, Howie Kendrick is an upgrade. Jimmy Rollins doesn't have the power Hanley Ramirez provided at shortstop, but it's a good bet that even Ramirez's best year in the field isn't better than Rollins' worst. Rookie of the Year candidate Joc Pederson made Kemp expendable. Along with a rejuvenated Carl Crawford and MVP candidate Yasiel Puig, not to mention fourth outfielder Andre Ethier, the Dodgers have the best outfield in baseball. Despite the absence of Kemp and Ramirez, look for the Dodgers to once again have the best offense in the National League.

On the mound, the addition of Scherzer vaults the Nationals into the discussion for best rotation in the league, but don't be fooled by the flashy headlines; at best they've merely matched the Dodgers, especially in a three-game series. Kershaw, the perpetually underappreciated Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu give the Dodgers three pitchers with legitimate sub-3.00 ERA skills. The Dodgers have rounded out the rotation expertly with the offseason signings of Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson.

Finally, on the topic of run suppression, the Dodgers knew exactly what they were doing when they jettisoned Kemp for Grandal. While Grandal may create an additional 30 runs on offense year-over-year versus Ellis' 2014 production at the plate, he may create just as much value on the run suppression side of the ledger. Baseball Prospectus ranked Grandal as the sixth-most valuable catcher in terms of runs suppressed through pitch framing; Ellis was ranked 99th. But even that doesn't quite reveal all the value because runs suppressed is a counting stat, and Grandal saw far fewer pitches than the five catchers ranked ahead of him. It's very possible Grandal will make a dominant starting rotation even better.

The discussion in this capsule focuses not on the Dodgers' competition in the NL West, but rather their pursuit of home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Nationals have an easier schedule, maybe equating to a two-game advantage, but the Dodgers look poised to still finish with the best record in the league all while cruising to a third straight division title.

It's not often you see a team with a win total of 92 and think there is value to be had, but that appears to be the case with the Dodgers. It is the Nationals sporting the highest win total (94) and the best NL pennant and World Series odds. The oddsmakers have made a mistake here; take the "over" for the Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers Record, 2011-Present
YEAR SEASON WIN TOTAL RECORD O/U DIV. FINISH WORLD SERIES ODDS
2011 83.5 82-79 Under 3rd 33-1
2012 81.5 86-76 Over 2nd 40-1
2013 91.5 92-70 Over 1st 15-2
2014 92.5 94-68 Over 1st 7-1
2015 92 -- -- -- 6-1
Evan Abrams, ESPN Stats & Info
Win totals and WS odds courtesy of Vegas sportsbooks


2015 projection: 98-64 (first, NL West)

Bet recommendation: Over

 

[lasportzphan]

You're welcome, fun boys.

Mvpuig will cream his pants over this effusive preview.

 

[lasportzphan]

• 
  
  Mark Saxon, ESPNLosAngeles.com

For the last dozen years or so, baseball’s decision makers have been divided into two general groups. The analytics people focus on objective criteria, things that can be quantified. The other group, mostly scouts and veteran executives, has focused on subjective criteria, such as a player’s physical tools and his mental and psychological makeup.

The Dodgers, under new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, have vowed to use a blended approach in their player-personnel decisions. With that in mind, we will look at five key Dodgers players heading into the upcoming season using objective and subjective criteria. For the project, we sought the help of one major-league executive with an analytics bent and one veteran scout.

The focus is on key players who have some question mark heading into 2015. For example, Clayton Kershaw's performance obviously is a key to the team, but a 7-year old could tell us that, as long as he’s healthy, he will produce at an elite level.

Joc Pederson. What to expect from the rookie center fielder?

Objective: He was a “three true outcomes” player in 2014, meaning it often was a home run, walk or strikeout. His last 60 games or so at Triple-A were interesting. His slugging continued to improve, but there was some decline in his on-base and batting averages.

Subjective: This kid has a chance to become a very good major leaguer. He has all the tools -- drive, motivation and will. It’s a perfect situation for him. Surrounded by veterans, he shouldn’t feel the need to carry the load. If he continues to be in the bottom of the order, which he should, I can’t think of any club that has that kind of production down there.

Consensus: Some things to worry about, but a lot to like.