So let's talk 2021 draft

[MrS]

Again, the accepted wisdom is that your typical draft has a top tier of solid first rounders of 15 to 20 players deep. This year is thought to be on the thin side due to other factors. We haven't drafted in that range for years. If Adams was drafted this year he woukd be a top pick and certainly cost you more than two 1sts, even in the #23 range.

its not easy to get elite players in that range, but it is to get starters especially at positions like G, RT and C.

You are also right in that Adams is worse in many categories than Thomas and Kam were. But unfortunately for your comparision Thomas and Kam are 2 seperate players (but Kenny Easley was close to a hybrid of the two!). Adams is as effective in coverage as Kam, just in a different way. Adams is more capable of covering in space (such as a zone), while Kam matched up a bit better with TEs and such.

sure he is better in space than kam, but not nearly as good as earl was. he feels like a jack of all trades master of none, which is fine i just dont see the trade value adding up.

As to your questions:
*All the talking heads on national stations and radio discussed his early HOF track during the trade last year. Literally everyone. Here is an SI article from before last season that proposed him as a top-10 player in the entire NFL! (No, I personally don't think he is a top-10 overall player)

you said players and coaches, media people are wh*res seeking attention they will say anything.

*The value the Seahawks have received from trades is debatable but I would say that each trade needs to be evaluated individually, and that this regime's success speaks for itself (Please don't make me post the historic W/L numbers again).

the wins are not from making trades, they are 90% because of russell wilson and good defensive coaching. if you did an analysis of the first round trades I think you would find we got very little value out of them.

I agree you need elite players. I disagree that we don't have them on D. Wagner is still elite, and so is Adams. I am hoping Dunlap can be a DL difference maker for a couple more years also.

I dont think wagner has been elite the past few years, still good but not dominating games anymore.

Read this article. It speaks on Adams' leadership skills and value in the locker room. It is an aspect we haven't discussed about him. He has been reported to be a great locker room guy. It also has some great breakdowns of his stats.

the knock on him in new york was that he was a cancer, if the team starts losing he might turn into one here.

 

[blstoker]

if you did an analysis of the first round trades I think you would find we got very little value out of them.

I did, during the 2019 season. Seattle is average at drafting first round players. Granted that analysis only went up to Penny, but Collier put up a decent season this year (as well as starting all 16 games). Penny has been the only pick that severely underperformed his draft position - missing nearly half his career due to injury can do that to a guy.

 

[MrS]

I did, during the 2019 season. Seattle is average at drafting first round players. Granted that analysis only went up to Penny, but Collier put up a decent season this year (as well as starting all 16 games). Penny has been the only pick that severely underperformed his draft position - missing nearly half his career due to injury can do that to a guy.

I didnt mean the picks, the trades where we gave away our 1sts.

 

[blstoker]

I didnt mean the picks, the trades where we gave away our 1sts.

2013 - Can't do much to defend Percy Harvin. All I can say is that I can see they were trying to get what they would eventually get in Lockett a few years later. Genuine 1st round talent, just didn't get first round production.

2014 - traded back. Richardson is probably the best of the package they would ultimately turn that into. 1 good year out of 4 and then gone.

2015 - Jimmy Graham. This one, as much as it is maligned by some, was a hit as far as talent and production. Graham's 3 years in Seattle compares very favorably to the output of the TEs taken during the first round since 2010. 57-683-6 per year would make his production better than every 1st round TE in that time.

2017 - Of the package the pick eventually turned into, Chris Carson is easily the cream of the crop. Lano Hill and Tedric Thompson were also producers, and Malik McDowell was rated as a 1st round talent and only his own stupidity that kept us from seeing what he could become.

I'd say only 1 in the 4 years we've moved out of the first round did we not at least acquire a talent that was worthy of a first round selection. Whether it panned out that way on the field as opposed to just paper, well that's a different argument.

 

[Screamin12th]

funny how we talk about how his trade value isn't as high as what we paid and people think we are saying he sucks lol. The only players in the NFL worth 2 #1's and a #3 and a player ( 4 back ) is players like Henry, Cook, TJ Watt, Bosa, Allen and even Wilson. Adams is just not there, he could get there and is talented enough to get there but he is not there yet. That capital they paid for him was Very expensive. VERY expensive.

 

[MrS]

2013 - Can't do much to defend Percy Harvin. All I can say is that I can see they were trying to get what they would eventually get in Lockett a few years later. Genuine 1st round talent, just didn't get first round production.

We got a kickoff return in the SB which was great but was it.

2014 - traded back. Richardson is probably the best of the package they would ultimately turn that into. 1 good year out of 4 and then gone.

Meh on richardson, and he did zip when he left.

2015 - Jimmy Graham. This one, as much as it is maligned by some, was a hit as far as talent and production. Graham's 3 years in Seattle compares very favorably to the output of the TEs taken during the first round since 2010. 57-683-6 per year would make his production better than every 1st round TE in that time.

We also gave up a probowl center. i loved having jimmy but this was a bad trade and the production we got out of him paled in comparison to to what he did with the saints.

2017 - Of the package the pick eventually turned into, Chris Carson is easily the cream of the crop. Lano Hill and Tedric Thompson were also producers, and Malik McDowell was rated as a 1st round talent and only his own stupidity that kept us from seeing what he could become.

Well shouldnt have drafted an idiot, thats on the GM.

I'd say only 1 in the 4 years we've moved out of the first round did we not at least acquire a talent that was worthy of a first round selection. Whether it panned out that way on the field as opposed to just paper, well that's a different argument.

I dont think we got much value for those trades and we would have been better off picking a player in most cases.

 

[returnofjakedog]

its not easy to get elite players in that range, but it is to get starters especially at positions like G, RT and C.

sure he is better in space than kam, but not nearly as good as earl was. he feels like a jack of all trades master of none, which is fine i just dont see the trade value adding up.

you said players and coaches, media people are wh*res seeking attention they will say anything.

the wins are not from making trades, they are 90% because of russell wilson and good defensive coaching. if you did an analysis of the first round trades I think you would find we got very little value out of them.

I dont think wagner has been elite the past few years, still good but not dominating games anymore.

the knock on him in new york was that he was a cancer, if the team starts losing he might turn into one here.

Well, again, the majority would disagree with on Wagner. It is hard to dominate the game from an inside LB position and BW continues to consistently make plays every game as well as calling the D and pre-snap adjustments.

All the reports I read on the situation indicate that Adams was never a problem in the organization until a report leaked that they were discussing a trade to the Cowboys. They had never talked to him about any intention of any trades so it was a big surprise for a young, potential franchise player. It was then that he started openly criticizing the owner, gm, and coach with the sole intent of initiating a trade.
Was he right to do it this way? No fan likes to see it and it doesn't make for good impression.......BUT.......in this specific instance all of his criticisms were completely legit! The Jets have been a horrible f'n clown show for years now. I don't like how he approached it but I don't blame him for not wanting to waste his career there.
All reports are that he has been a large positive and leader in the Seahawks' locker room.
Of course the easy way to keep him from not becoming a problem is to WIN and this team has proven that they are capable of achieving that, the only question is how much winning.

 

[returnofjakedog]

funny how we talk about how his trade value isn't as high as what we paid and people think we are saying he sucks lol. The only players in the NFL worth 2 #1's and a #3 and a player ( 4 back ) is players like Henry, Cook, TJ Watt, Bosa, Allen and even Wilson. Adams is just not there, he could get there and is talented enough to get there but he is not there yet. That capital they paid for him was Very expensive. VERY expensive.

Look at a trade value chart.

*I would say that if Adams was to enter the draft now as a known commodity he would go between #1 and #3, but lets say he potentially could drop to #5. Is that reasonable?
*A #5 pick is rated at 1700 points. A #23 is rated at 760 points. So even with the slightly higher than expected pick given by us (I thought we would pick in the #25 to #28 range) the trade still favors us! Even with McDougald and 3rd round for fourth round swap it stll would slightly favor us!
*Note: #1 pick = 3000 points, #2 = 2600 #3 = 2000, #4 = 1800 so the value only goes up from there.

So from that perspective it is actually a small net positive, and certainly not a huge overpay.

In other words, if you went to the team and said "I'll trade you the #22 & #23 for your #5", they would turn it down and say that it wasn't enough.

Please explain to me again how this was a huge overpay of draft capital because the numbers just do not add up to support that theory.

(Waits for inevitable rant about how draft charts are wrong. I will pre-counter that with it is an established and accepted system that, while not perfect, gives a good general guideline that is at least more concrete than our opinions).

 

[Screamin12th]

here lets let some other people answer this question that are unbias. The question was

Is Adams worth the price the Seahawks paid?

[Mike Clay, fantasy writer]: No. Trading away a pair of first-round picks means you intend to sign Adams to a pricey, long-term extension. Though Adams is worth the hefty salary, that’s a) cap space that can’t be used on other positions, and b) a loss of a pair of first-round talents on reasonably-priced, four-plus-year rookie contracts. The opportunity cost is simply too high.

[Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders]: No. This is the same problem as the Khalil Mack trade. You’re essentially trading a bunch of draft value (future cost-controlled talent) so that you can give a player a market-level extension. If you give Adams the highest contract for a safety, and he plays like the league’s best safety, you still aren’t getting a discount. You’re getting what you paid for. And if he doesn’t play that well, you’re overpaying. And if you aren’t giving him an extension, why is he trying to get out of New York in the first place?

Now remember Adams wants to be the highest paid Safety in the game that means his resigning cost is right now at over 15 mill a year. We will see what some of the best FA Safeties this year get and his price might go up. If the Hawks don't resign him then HELL NO it wasn't worth the picks not even remotely close.

 

[MrS]

Now remember Adams wants to be the highest paid Safety in the game that means his resigning cost is right now at over 15 mill a year

Thats gonna be a yikes from me dawg.

Wilson better take a discount like brady did if he wants to win another superbowl.

 

[Screamin12th]

Imagine this also, Blair comes back from his injury and plays lights out. He has looked good when he has been on the field and he looks special. Sure not a probowl all star stud but he looks like he could grow into a borderline probowl player. Blair has looked good in coverage also. I mean he is sticky for a Safety covering like WR/RB he is able to hang. TE he isn't bad also because he plays physical. That 200 pound frame of his needs to get to 210 though or more. He is way to light to play the way he likes to and the way he did in college. He is going to get himself killed unless he bulks up.

 

[MrS]

If we are gonna pay a defender that much money, we should have just kept frank clark.

 

[returnofjakedog]

here lets let some other people answer this question that are unbias. The question was

Is Adams worth the price the Seahawks paid?

[Mike Clay, fantasy writer]: No. Trading away a pair of first-round picks means you intend to sign Adams to a pricey, long-term extension. Though Adams is worth the hefty salary, that’s a) cap space that can’t be used on other positions, and b) a loss of a pair of first-round talents on reasonably-priced, four-plus-year rookie contracts. The opportunity cost is simply too high.

[Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders]: No. This is the same problem as the Khalil Mack trade. You’re essentially trading a bunch of draft value (future cost-controlled talent) so that you can give a player a market-level extension. If you give Adams the highest contract for a safety, and he plays like the league’s best safety, you still aren’t getting a discount. You’re getting what you paid for. And if he doesn’t play that well, you’re overpaying. And if you aren’t giving him an extension, why is he trying to get out of New York in the first place?

Now remember Adams wants to be the highest paid Safety in the game that means his resigning cost is right now at over 15 mill a year. We will see what some of the best FA Safeties this year get and his price might go up. If the Hawks don't resign him then HELL NO it wasn't worth the picks not even remotely close.

I could easily pull up many who state the opposite so I won't bother going into a back and forth. No one disagrees with the fact that it was a high price. In fact, many say the Jets "won the trade" but no one gave the Seahawks an F grade on this trade despite the picks. Everyone openly admits that Adams has a very high value.

My trade value chart post proves the point. Since no one bothered to debate that and just moved on I will take it as acceptance of that specific point.

 

[returnofjakedog]

Also:

The franchise tag was $11.15 million a year for safeties and will probably be going down a little with the cap shrinking.

He might want $15 million. Everyone wants more. (My guess would be that he is starting his negotiation number intentionally high). But we have him at $9.8 million next year and then, worst case scenerio, up to two years under franchise tag at probably about $11 million and then $13 million. So I have serious doubts he is getting $15 million. I guess we will see.

 

[blstoker]

We got a kickoff return in the SB which was great but was it.

Meh on richardson, and he did zip when he left.

We also gave up a probowl center. i loved having jimmy but this was a bad trade and the production we got out of him paled in comparison to to what he did with the saints.

Well shouldnt have drafted an idiot, thats on the GM.

I dont think we got much value for those trades and we would have been better off picking a player in most cases.

Again, didn't defend Percy Harvin's production, but was definitely considered a talent worth the trade when it occurred.

Again, Richardson had one "good" season out of 4. Don't know what you're complaining about with that description.

Unger was a pro bowl center, coming off a season ended by severe leg injuries that had him miss 10 games the season before. Personally, I always looked at that trade as a 1st for Jimmy Graham and a 4th for Unger.

Yeah, McDowell in the first would've been a huge mistake because there was issues with his decision making heading into the draft, but a second for him was a decent gamble. It just didn't pay off.

You don't see much value because you don't want to see value. It's what happens when forming arguments around a conclusion instead of forming a conclusion around the arguments.

Here's a breakdown from a year ago about the production Seattle has had in the first round since Carroll:

The reality is this, no matter what you think of the individual players, coming into 2019, the first round has provided:

1 starting LT
1 All Pro S
1 starting LG
1 starting LB
1 starting RT
1 Backup RB

So, the fact is, despite complaints and questions about Seattle’s drafting in the first round, they’ve gotten a starter 5 of the 6 draftees. Hopefully, Collier develops into starter to make it 6 of 7.

You wanna go deeper, you can throw in first round trades netting:

1 Super Bowl KO return & a headache
1 Pro bowl TE
1 Starting WR
1 Starting S
1 Starting RB
1 Starting TE
3 Backup DE
1 Backup WR
1 Backup S
1 Backup QB
1 Cut OT
1 Cut FB
1 NFI DE

So, the first round has produced 11 starters in 11 years.

 

[Podunkparte]

You don't see much value because you don't want to see value. It's what happens when forming arguments around a conclusion instead of forming a conclusion around the arguments.

 

[MrS]

You don't see much value because you don't want to see value. It's what happens when forming arguments around a conclusion instead of forming a conclusion around the arguments.

on the flip side, you see it because you want to.

Here's a breakdown from a year ago about the production Seattle has had in the first round since Carroll:


1 starting LT

Okung? This was a no brainer

1 All Pro S

Again, no brainer

1 starting LG

James carpenter? An absolute reach and hot garbage

1 starting LB

Bruce irvin was a good pick, he worked out ok on a stacked defense.

1 starting RT

Ifedi? Lmfao cmon maaaan

1 Backup RB

Huge reach and a bust, could have bad chubb.

So, the fact is, despite complaints and questions about Seattle’s drafting in the first round, they’ve gotten a starter 5 of the 6 draftees. Hopefully, Collier develops into starter to make it 6 of 7.

You wanna go deeper, you can throw in first round trades netting:

1 Super Bowl KO return & a headache

Enough said

1 Pro bowl TE

I loved the potential, but he was wasted here. Just look at his stat line in NO and what he did here and we set our OL back quite a bit giving up unger.

1 Starting WR

Im not sure who this is referring to

1 Starting S

Adams? We just wont agree on this.

1 Starting RB

7th round good value

1 Starting TE

who?

So, the first round has produced 11 starters in 11 years.

sure, starters, but not necessarily good ones.

 

[blstoker]

on the flip side, you see it because you want to.

True, I could have my own bias, but I've provided objective reasoning beyond "me likey" or "me no likey" as a defense of my position. Your analysis has been laughable, to say the least as you try to justify your issues. Hell, you've already moved the goalpost in this debate just on this page alone.

 

[MrS]

True, I could have my own bias, but I've provided objective reasoning beyond "me likey" or "me no likey" as a defense of my position.

Not even able to admit you have a personal bias. You can disagree with my analysis but ive been more correct in my assessments than the rest of you.

Hardly anyone is willing to call out the team when they make a stupid decision.

I will be here to continue doing it and ill continue to be right.

i was right about ifedi, i was right about carpenter, i was right about penny, and ill be right about collier. And probably adams too.

And whatever bum they draft this year ill call that out too.

Oh and i was right about bevell

 

[blstoker]

True, I could have my own bias, but I've provided objective reasoning beyond "me likey" or "me no likey" as a defense of my position. Your analysis has been laughable, to say the least as you try to justify your issues. Hell, you've already moved the goalpost in this debate just on this page alone.

I should clarify that my objective reasoning is in the posts I'm quoting from a year ago - when we had this exact same debate.