So, Is The "U" Back?

[Across The Field]

Well USC has won a Rose bowl and Pac 12 Championship Game in the last 4 years and Utah has not. Texas has won a Sugar Bowl and at least played for a big 12 Championship, Oklahoma State has not. And there hasn't been much difference the last 4 years in terms of performance on the field and recruiting between Miss St and Tennessee. Wisconsin is the one team I'll agree with, but they aren't ever going to sniff winning a title in CFB because they don't recruit well enough. They can beat a team at home with more talent, but they aren't beating a team on the road/neutral that has more talent. We've seen that play out the last couple seasons.

Over the past 5 years:

USC: 42-24
Utah: 46-21
USC is 3-2 against them, but the recruiting disparity is unreal. Utah's highest class over those 5 years was 33rd while USC's lowest rated class was 20th, with the other four classes being top 10, and three of those top 5. Now that is an actual talent disparity.

Oklahoma State: 45-20
Texas: 35-29
Oklahoma State is also 4-1 against Texas over the last five years. Obviously Texas had much higher classes all five years, but what difference did it make?

Mississippi State has a slightly better record, but look at recruiting - average class for Tennessee: 13th, Miss St: 24th. The biggest thing is, Mississippi State has played in the SECW, which has been the best division in college football over that time period, while Tennessee has floundered in a weak SECE.

Can't say I agree on Wisconsin. They've had all of the success they've had over the past 5 years with mediocre QB play. That says a lot for a program that is pumped up because, with the new 247 rankings, they have a 5* player in back-to-back years for the first time ever. Think about it: michigan has as many 5* commitments in their last 3 classes as Wisconsin has ever had in their entire history, and that doesn't include Shea Patterson, who was a top 5 overall prospect that transferred in.

There's a cap on teams that don't elite at high levels, yes. However, teams that have high-end coaches tend not to flounder very often, even if they don't recruit at high levels, while we've seen plenty of recent examples of name-brand schools imploding even though the recruiting rankings suggest otherwise.

 

[ericd7633]

Over the past 5 years:

USC: 42-24
Utah: 46-21
USC is 3-2 against them, but the recruiting disparity is unreal. Utah's highest class over those 5 years was 33rd while USC's lowest rated class was 20th, with the other four classes being top 10, and three of those top 5. Now that is an actual talent disparity.

Oklahoma State: 45-20
Texas: 35-29
Oklahoma State is also 4-1 against Texas over the last five years. Obviously Texas had much higher classes all five years, but what difference did it make?

Mississippi State has a slightly better record, but look at recruiting - average class for Tennessee: 13th, Miss St: 24th. The biggest thing is, Mississippi State has played in the SECW, which has been the best division in college football over that time period, while Tennessee has floundered in a weak SECE.

Can't say I agree on Wisconsin. They've had all of the success they've had over the past 5 years with mediocre QB play. That says a lot for a program that is pumped up because, with the new 247 rankings, they have a 5* player in back-to-back years for the first time ever. Think about it: michigan has as many 5* commitments in their last 3 classes as Wisconsin has ever had in their entire history, and that doesn't include Shea Patterson, who was a top 5 overall prospect that transferred in.

There's a cap on teams that don't elite at high levels, yes. However, teams that have high-end coaches tend not to flounder very often, even if they don't recruit at high levels, while we've seen plenty of recent examples of name-brand schools imploding even though the recruiting rankings suggest otherwise.

And stability plays a big factor in that. USC and Texas both went through coaching changes during that time period. Both those new coaches have accomplished more than Utah or Oklahoma State. Hell Clay Helton has coached in two Pac 12CG's and in the other season won a Rose Bowl. Utah also scheduled like crap OOC which guarantees them 3 wins OOC. USC had ND every year, along with playing Bama, and a H&H with Texas.

The gap in recruiting for Miss St and Tennessee isn't that big. Those numbers don't suggest they are. And the division they are in doesn't matter. On average the SOS for Miss St was 30 and for Tennessee it was 35.

And Wisconsin will never compete for a title.

 

[Across The Field]

And stability plays a big factor in that. USC and Texas both went through coaching changes during that time period. Both those new coaches have accomplished more than Utah or Oklahoma State. Hell Clay Helton has coached in two Pac 12CG's and in the other season won a Rose Bowl. Utah also scheduled like crap OOC which guarantees them 3 wins OOC. USC had ND every year, along with playing Bama, and a H&H with Texas.

The gap in recruiting for Miss St and Tennessee isn't that big. Those numbers don't suggest they are. And the division they are in doesn't matter. On average the SOS for Miss St was 30 and for Tennessee it was 35.

And Wisconsin will never compete for a title.

Wins are wins. Ok State, Wisconsin, Utah, and Miss St have them and the other 4 don't, despite large gaps in recruiting rankings. Reason? Significantly better coaching.

Sad thing is, those 4 schools aren't even remotely on the level of michigan in terms of clout with recruits. I mean, not even in the same universe.

Harbaugh hasn't done a bad job of recruiting at all, but he's done a horrible job of coaching and development. Horrible record vs ranked opponents, even worse job against top 10 teams. Can't win bowl games. 3 percentage points doesn't add up to a nearly 3 TD differential on the field if Harbaugh was doing his job, but he's not. That's really all it boils down to, and it's getting worse now that all of Hoke's recruits are leaving, which just strengthens my argument about the issues that are at michigan and always will be as long as he's there.

 

[ericd7633]

Wins are wins. Ok State, Wisconsin, Utah, and Miss St have them and the other 4 don't, despite large gaps in recruiting rankings. Reason? Significantly better coaching.

Sad thing is, those 4 schools aren't even remotely on the level of michigan in terms of clout with recruits. I mean, not even in the same universe.

Harbaugh hasn't done a bad job of recruiting at all, but he's done a horrible job of coaching and development. Horrible record vs ranked opponents, even worse job against top 10 teams. Can't win bowl games. 3 percentage points doesn't add up to a nearly 3 TD differential on the field if Harbaugh was doing his job, but he's not. That's really all it boils down to, and it's getting worse now that all of Hoke's recruits are leaving, which just strengthens my argument about the issues that are at michigan and always will be as long as he's there.

Outside of Bama, Clemson, OSU, LSU, UGA and probably OU I can't think of anybody that is going to have a good record against ranked teams.

 

[Across The Field]

Outside of Bama, Clemson, OSU, LSU, UGA and probably OU I can't think of anybody that is going to have a good record against ranked teams.

And what do those programs have that michigan doesn't have, but easily should?

Spoiler

Coaching and development

 

[ericd7633]

And what do those programs have that michigan doesn't have, but easily should?

Spoiler

Coaching and development

And outside of OU much better talent than anyone. And in OU's case they typically play an easy schedule to make up for the fact they aren't as talented as those other teams.

 

[Across The Field]

And outside of OU much better talent than anyone. And in OU's case they typically play an easy schedule to make up for the fact they aren't as talented as those other teams.

So that means Florida State (.91 avg recruit ranking), Texas (.91), and USC (.915) must've been better than ND, PSU, and michigan for the last 5 years, since they have more talent right? Isn't that how your trying to spin this?

 

[ericd7633]

So that means Florida State (.91 avg recruit ranking), Texas (.91), and USC (.915) must've been better than ND, PSU, and michigan for the last 5 years, since they have more talent right? Isn't that how your trying to spin this?

Not spinning anything. You need elite talent to win big.

 

[BamaDude]

Nah. There are way too many examples in college football over the past 5 years of why it's not. Coaching and development is exponentially more important than recruiting stars. It's why Wisconsin has been a better program that michigan, it's why Oklahoma State has been a better program than Texas, it's why Utah has been a better program than USC, it's why Mississippi State has been a better program than Tennessee, etc. It's what makes and breaks programs.

You are correct that coaching & developing talent has more to do with winning than raw latent alone. But it is also true that some student athletes get a bump in their ratings just because of the teams that are interested in them. Some athletes might move up from a 3-star to a 4-star just because a team like Texas, FSU, USC or Michigan is interested in them; and if one of those schools goes ahead & signs them, they look like they have a better class than they really do.

 

[Across The Field]

You are correct that coaching & developing talent has more to do with winning than raw latent alone. But it is also true that some student athletes get a bump in their ratings just because of the teams that are interested in them. Some athletes might move up from a 3-star to a 4-star just because a team like Texas, FSU, USC or Michigan is interested in them; and if one of those schools goes ahead & signs them, they look like they have a better class than they really do.

100% correct. It's why I don't really care about how many 5* guys OSU gets. We've had way too many guys turn into studs that were 4* or lower that using recruiting stars as an excuse for why your team isn't good is just BS, especially when you're consistently bringing in top 10 classes. If you can't parlay that into at least some level of success, you're probably in a job you aren't fit for.

 

[Across The Field]

Not spinning anything. You need elite talent to win big.

I'm not even talking about winning big. I'm talking about winning anything. If Harbaugh was actually a really good coach and developer, things wouldn't be going the way they're going at michigan.

 

[ericd7633]

I'm not even talking about winning big. I'm talking about winning anything. If Harbaugh was actually a really good coach and developer, things wouldn't be going the way they're going at michigan.

The biggest knock is not being able to beat OSU. OSU has significantly more talent though. And winning bowl games. But they are meaningless anyway. His results are in line with where Michigan has recruited. Actually even surpassed expectation if you include his first recruiting class which he had little time to assemble.

 

[Across The Field]

The biggest knock is not being able to beat OSU. OSU has significantly more talent though. And winning bowl games. But they are meaningless anyway. His results are in line with where Michigan has recruited. Actually even surpassed expectation if you include his first recruiting class which he had little time to assemble.

This is very, very wrong. Since his 2016 season, his teams have gotten worse, including two straight humiliating blowout losses to Ohio State. michigan's 2014 and 2015 classes were not highly ranked at all. His first season at michigan, he was blown out by OSU, but that was a ridiculously good OSU team with multiple high-end NFL players on the field. However, in 2016 when those 14/15 kids were playing a lot, it was a slugfest. That OSU team was also still very talented according to the recruiting rankings (the 2013-2016 classes were no worse than 7th nationally). That's been by far his best team so far, and his 2016 recruiting class was ranked 8th.

In 2017, against OSU, they had the lead until Haskins came in and saved the day, and OSU won by 11. The following year, OSU won at home by 24, and then in 2019 we demolished them by 27 at michigan. A very bad pattern is emerging as he's starting to integrate his own players. This is my point. In 2016/2017, when he still had guys from Hoke's classes, they were competitive against OSU. His recruiting classes are just as good, if not better, than Hoke's classes, but the quality has declined a lot as Hoke's guys have been filtered out. There's absolutely no chance he has surpassed any expectations, unless your expectations were to be a 7/8 win team. Also of note - the only top 10 wins he has at michigan in his 5 years were in 2016, when the team was still led mostly by Hoke's recruits.

So if it's all about recruiting stars, how could he be playing with the same level of talent as those teams that were competitive against OSU, but be getting beaten far worse?

Coaching and development.

 

[ericd7633]

This is very, very wrong. Since his 2016 season, his teams have gotten worse, including two straight humiliating blowout losses to Ohio State. michigan's 2014 and 2015 classes were not highly ranked at all. His first season at michigan, he was blown out by OSU, but that was a ridiculously good OSU team with multiple high-end NFL players on the field. However, in 2016 when those 14/15 kids were playing a lot, it was a slugfest. That OSU team was also still very talented according to the recruiting rankings (the 2013-2016 classes were no worse than 7th nationally). That's been by far his best team so far, and his 2016 recruiting class was ranked 8th.

In 2017, against OSU, they had the lead until Haskins came in and saved the day, and OSU won by 11. The following year, OSU won at home by 24, and then in 2019 we demolished them by 27 at michigan. A very bad pattern is emerging as he's starting to integrate his own players. This is my point. In 2016/2017, when he still had guys from Hoke's classes, they were competitive against OSU. His recruiting classes are just as good, if not better, than Hoke's classes, but the quality has declined a lot as Hoke's guys have been filtered out. There's absolutely no chance he has surpassed any expectations, unless your expectations were to be a 7/8 win team. Also of note - the only top 10 wins he has at michigan in his 5 years were in 2016, when the team was still led mostly by Hoke's recruits.

So if it's all about recruiting stars, how could he be playing with the same level of talent as those teams that were competitive against OSU, but be getting beaten far worse?

Coaching and development.

Sure. I said from the beginning its concerning that the games against OSU have become more lopsided the further into his tenure he is. But they aren't on osu's level so I think it's a little short sighted to compare them to OSU. It's similar to Tennessee and Bama. Tennessee gets talented players(not quite to the level Michigan does), but they have no chance to beat Bama because Bama.

OSU should replace Michigan as their rival and start thinking more in terms of it being Bama, Clemson, LSU etc. National teams, who they are competing with for titles.

 

[Across The Field]

Sure. I said from the beginning its concerning that the games against OSU have become more lopsided the further into his tenure he is. But they aren't on osu's level so I think it's a little short sighted to compare them to OSU. It's similar to Tennessee and Bama. Tennessee gets talented players(not quite to the level Michigan does), but they have no chance to beat Bama because Bama.

OSU should replace Michigan as their rival and start thinking more in terms of it being Bama, Clemson, LSU etc. National teams, who they are competing with for titles.

Tennessee doesn't recruit as well as michigan, and OSU doesn't recruit as well as Bama, so I don't think that's a great comparison, but I get it. Again, this sort of strengthens my point though. Tennessee's coaching situation has been garbage pretty much since Fulmer left and they've squandered a good amount of talent. Wouldn't shock me if that ended up being Harbaugh's legacy.

It'll always be michigan, but I'm more concerned facing Penn State for sure. The game last year wasn't as close as the score indicated, but it was still our closest game of the season. Then the two previous seasons were two wins for OSU by 1 point each. They're definitely a fun matchup, can't wait til Happy Valley this year.

I think Day is going to take the Clemson game as motivation for the 2020 team, and I could see us running into Bama or Clemson in the CFP. I don't see LSU sniffing the playoffs again for a while, though, unless they strike gold with an elite QB and OC - two things they haven't had in forever - to replace the ones that just left.

 

[ericd7633]

Tennessee doesn't recruit as well as michigan, and OSU doesn't recruit as well as Bama, so I don't think that's a great comparison, but I get it. Again, this sort of strengthens my point though. Tennessee's coaching situation has been garbage pretty much since Fulmer left and they've squandered a good amount of talent. Wouldn't shock me if that ended up being Harbaugh's legacy.

It'll always be michigan, but I'm more concerned facing Penn State for sure. The game last year wasn't as close as the score indicated, but it was still our closest game of the season. Then the two previous seasons were two wins for OSU by 1 point each. They're definitely a fun matchup, can't wait til Happy Valley this year.

I think Day is going to take the Clemson game as motivation for the 2020 team, and I could see us running into Bama or Clemson in the CFP. I don't see LSU sniffing the playoffs again for a while, though, unless they strike gold with an elite QB and OC - two things they haven't had in forever - to replace the ones that just left.

It was the closest I could think of off the top of my head. I don't think Michigan has squandered so much talent. Harbaugh is 10th in winning percentage since he got to Michigan in terms of P5 schools. Tennessee in that same time frame is 55th overall. Tennessee has been a complete mess the last 5 years, but maybe things appear to be better.

I do think I'd be more worried about PSU moving forward as well, not because they are recruiting better than Michigan or that Franklin is a better coach than Harbaugh is, but that game will always be at night in Happy Valley, that's a tough atmosphere. OSU has routinely struggled there in that environment.

 

[Across The Field]

It was the closest I could think of off the top of my head. I don't think Michigan has squandered so much talent. Harbaugh is 10th in winning percentage since he got to Michigan in terms of P5 schools. Tennessee in that same time frame is 55th overall. Tennessee has been a complete mess the last 5 years, but maybe things appear to be better.

I do think I'd be more worried about PSU moving forward as well, not because they are recruiting better than Michigan or that Franklin is a better coach than Harbaugh is, but that game will always be at night in Happy Valley, that's a tough atmosphere. OSU has routinely struggled there in that environment.

Harbaugh is 10th in winning percentage but being paid like a CFP-level coach, which he's not, and they're getting worse each year. It's not as bad as Tennessee, but Tennessee is no michigan in terms of the level of program, either, so expectations are higher at michigan, especially with such a (supposedly) big time head coach.

I'm significantly more worried due to Franklin being a better coach. Playing there at night isn't a concern. Before Franklin got there, we had won our last 4 straight in HV at night by an average of 14 points.

 

[ericd7633]

Harbaugh is 10th in winning percentage but being paid like a CFP-level coach, which he's not, and they're getting worse each year. It's not as bad as Tennessee, but Tennessee is no michigan in terms of the level of program, either, so expectations are higher at michigan, especially with such a (supposedly) big time head coach.

I'm significantly more worried due to Franklin being a better coach. Playing there at night isn't a concern. Before Franklin got there, we had won our last 4 straight in HV at night by an average of 14 points.

Okay, but money doesn't matter when you have an unlimited supply of it.

And what makes Franklin such a good coach if Harbaugh isn't? Franklin has a worse record against ranked teams since 2015(when Harbaugh arrived at Michigan) during the regular season. Is it simply the fluke win in 2016 against OSU?

 

[Across The Field]

Okay, but money doesn't matter when you have an unlimited supply of it.

And what makes Franklin such a good coach if Harbaugh isn't? Franklin has a worse record against ranked teams since 2015(when Harbaugh arrived at Michigan) during the regular season. Is it simply the fluke win in 2016 against OSU?

Beat OSU, has won the division, has won the conference, has looked WAY better in bowl games, has a better winning percentage.

Money matters when you're determining if a coach has underachieved. If Harbaugh was making $3-4m a year, it'd be different. Not only that, but all the fanfare and bullshit surrounding him has been useless, not to mention the current state of the program in terms of the players' mentality. He's been a colossal disappointment.

 

[ericd7633]

Beat OSU, has won the division, has won the conference, has looked WAY better in bowl games, has a better winning percentage.

Money matters when you're determining if a coach has underachieved. If Harbaugh was making $3-4m a year, it'd be different. Not only that, but all the fanfare and bullshit surrounding him has been useless, not to mention the current state of the program in terms of the players' mentality. He's been a colossal disappointment.

And winning the division and conference was simply a by product of beating osu on a fluke. How many times is a FG going to get blocked and returned for a TD. Conversely a couple inches on a spot of the ball is what kept Michigan from beating OSU. A rarity and a couple inches makes a big difference?

And I would disagree in regards to the money. It'd be one thing if a school like Maryland was paying huge for a coach since their athletic department has been in shambles for like a decade now. But not Michigan.