Smith passer rating on the day

[I_am_1z]

He lost in a blowout, had a pick 6, lost a fumble, was only within 10 for ~ three minutes, and had a 77 (?)QBR. Something is flawed, it's not reliable. And I don't care for the "it'll even out in the end" BS. Passer rating already evens out, as well as public opinion. Why create one that is unreliable game by game and only confirms what we already know and on top of all that not tell anyone how it is formulated? Plus, reportedly removes credit to the QB when he recognizes a pass play that will get YAC (although it does treat all QBs equally unfair here).

I've been looking for a good reason and the best I can give you is that he brought his team right back with two TDs(17-23). Then the Packers went and dominated the rest of the game. Still not a reason to give Orton an MVP worthy QBR.

Under Yahoo stats though, Orton didn't fumble that game.

 

[MHSL82]

FYI Alex is now third in the league behind Rodgers and Brady in Passer Rating at 104.1 for the season.

I know that there's a lot of football left and passer rating is not the be all end all, but raise your hand if you thought Alex Smith would ever be top three this season.

 

[tomikcon1971]

MaioccoCSN Matt Maiocco
Alex Smith's passer rating is now up to 104.1 after a four-quarter beatdown of the Bucs. SportsHoopla.com/nC6qWb

 

[tomikcon1971]

sorry. The link didn't come through the first time.

Smith, 49ers offense puts together complete-game win

 

[mem49er]

sorry. The link didn't come through the first time.

Smith, 49ers offense puts together complete-game win

Think the biggest thing there was that it was a complete game. All four quarters and all three phases. About as satisfying as the steak I just ate...

 

[threelittleturds]

But he also made some very good throws today as well. Expecting perfection is foolish on ones part.... luck is always welcome and around.

Smith, this year, only has one INT IIRC... i may be wrong?

I wasn't trying to sound like a debbie downer, I just didn't want to ignore Alex Smith's negatives when discussing a possible longterm deal for him after the year.

The way the market is, with Kolb getting 60 million for the unknown... I'd have to imagine that if Alex Smith keeps this up and finishes with something like 21 TDs and 5 INTs, the 49ers are going to have competition with bringing him back. He won't be back for a 3 year 15 million dollar deal when other people are offering him 40 million or more.

 

[mem49er]

I wasn't trying to sound like a debbie downer, I just didn't want to ignore Alex Smith's negatives when discussing a possible longterm deal for him after the year.

The way the market is, with Kolb getting 60 million for the unknown... I'd have to imagine that if Alex Smith keeps this up and finishes with something like 21 TDs and 5 INTs, the 49ers are going to have competition with bringing him back. He won't be back for a 3 year 15 million dollar deal when other people are offering him 40 million or more.

There's alot of football left, not to mention alot of bad tape on Smith out there...but if anyone would take a home-team discount I think it would be Smith. He knows what it's like to be in a bad situation and if he has a good one here, finally, after seven years...I don't see him flushing it just for money. He's made a ton of money already and he's not a stupid kid, I'm sure he hasn't blown it on coke and gambling.

 

[tomikcon1971]

I bet we'll get a discount......he could have bolted this year and he stuck around. He seems to like Harbaugh and why would he want an 8th O-coordinator? Also, look what he did during the lockout with no contract. Now if someone offers 60 and we offer 10....well then who would blame him. But I doubt he gets that kind of money.

All that being said....I want more data points before we consider anything. I'm not sold yet.

 

[MHSL82]

I've been looking for a good reason and the best I can give you is that he brought his team right back with two TDs(17-23). Then the Packers went and dominated the rest of the game. Still not a reason to give Orton an MVP worthy QBR.

Under Yahoo stats though, Orton didn't fumble that game.[/QUOTE]

My fault, I was thinking of Kolb (I think).

 

[threelittleturds]

There's alot of football left, not to mention alot of bad tape on Smith out there...but if anyone would take a home-team discount I think it would be Smith. He knows what it's like to be in a bad situation and if he has a good one here, finally, after seven years...I don't see him flushing it just for money. He's made a ton of money already and he's not a stupid kid, I'm sure he hasn't blown it on coke and gambling.

That is a pretty good point, after all the years of a bad situation. He might not walk away from what is finally a great situation for him just for money, and walk into an unknown with another team. I think Smith made something around 20 million from his rookie contract before they restructured it, maybe 30 million overall from the 49ers after this year?? So, he may come back and give the 49ers that hometeam discount.

 

[imac_21]

So we're just judging it on one player, from last week, and now we're throwing the system out the window?

Well, if the system is going to be reliable, it probably shouldn't tell us that Alex Smith was below average in Philadelphia.

 

[CalamityX11]

Think the biggest thing there was that it was a complete game. All four quarters and all three phases. About as satisfying as the steak I just ate...

I said it in the game thread... this was a COMPLETE WIN at all levels... utter domination by our Niners from start to finish.

I'm going to be happy all week.

 

[CalamityX11]

I wasn't trying to sound like a debbie downer, I just didn't want to ignore Alex Smith's negatives when discussing a possible longterm deal for him after the year.

The way the market is, with Kolb getting 60 million for the unknown... I'd have to imagine that if Alex Smith keeps this up and finishes with something like 21 TDs and 5 INTs, the 49ers are going to have competition with bringing him back. He won't be back for a 3 year 15 million dollar deal when other people are offering him 40 million or more.

I can't imagine the market going crazy. Alex hasn't shown himself to be a $ guy. I think he's been loyal and grateful to the 49ers org since they drafted him and stuck with him through high and low low ends including injuries.

Plus Alex got something going on with this offense plus with his coaches and offensive system. I really can't see him bolting plus with Prime in the wings waiting to takeover he'll won't play hardball IMO(if it comes down to it)

 

[imac_21]

I've been looking for a good reason and the best I can give you is that he brought his team right back with two TDs(17-23). Then the Packers went and dominated the rest of the game. Still not a reason to give Orton an MVP worthy QBR.

Under Yahoo stats though, Orton didn't fumble that game.

So Orton is rewarded for bringing his team back to within 6 before they get blown out, yet Smith is PUNISHED for bringing his team back from a 21 point deficit to a 6 point deficit because the Niners ran the ball on the last drive?

This makes sense?

 

[imac_21]

According to Sando's write-up, Smith had a 98.2 Total QBR this week.

 

[I_am_1z]

According to Sando's write-up, Smith had a 98.2 Total QBR this week.

Seems like they're making up for last week.

 

[I_am_1z]

So Orton is rewarded for bringing his team back to within 6 before they get blown out, yet Smith is PUNISHED for bringing his team back from a 21 point deficit to a 6 point deficit because the Niners ran the ball on the last drive?

This makes sense?

Sometimes things don't have to make sense to work. For example, new medicine that's still in the R&D stages - occasionally chemists will create a product that works, but they don't have a full understanding of it.*

My reason for buying into the QBR because from what ESPN has shown at the end of the season, it will paint a fairly accurate picture of QB performance.

* - I realize that's a terrible analogy to use but I'm sticking to it anyways.

 

[mem49er]

Sometimes things don't have to make sense to work. For example, new medicine that's still in the R&D stages - occasionally chemists will create a product that works, but they don't have a full understanding of it.*

My reason for buying into the QBR because from what ESPN has shown at the end of the season, it will paint a fairly accurate picture of QB performance.

* - I realize that's a terrible analogy to use but I'm sticking to it anyways.

Only part of the post I agree with.

 

[imac_21]

Sometimes things don't have to make sense to work. For example, new medicine that's still in the R&D stages - occasionally chemists will create a product that works, but they don't have a full understanding of it.*

My reason for buying into the QBR because from what ESPN has shown at the end of the season, it will paint a fairly accurate picture of QB performance.

* - I realize that's a terrible analogy to use but I'm sticking to it anyways.

The thing is, when a new medicine is in the R&D stage it isn't available on the market like Total QBR is. There have been plenty of medicines that never got past the R&D stage because the developers discovered multiple flaws in it.

To use the reason that Smith's TDs were weighted lightly last week because we were way down and he didn't do much on the winning drive is acceptable, though not agreeable. You can make the argument that it was garbage time and the D was in prevent making things easier for him so it shouldn't be rated as heavily.

Likewise, on its own to say that Orton's performance when trailing by 20 points last week (throwing 2 TDs) should be rewarded because it gave the Bears the opportunity to win, regardless of the outcome, is acceptable.

However, to use both arguments at the same time creates a massive paradox as both statements can't be true.

 

[Kinzu]

If Smith plays out the year like this and we end up winning 10+ games and/or making a run in the playoffs you have to bring him back no question asked.

Also, why does everyone think just because he was drafted in the 2nd round that Kaepernick is our future QB? Their is a chance he never starts for us.

I still see the 49ers going hard after Josh Johnson in the off-season. The only reason we would not get him is because we will have to devote a good bit of money to Alex Smith if he continues to play well. It will also depend if Johnson can get starter money from another team.

If we bring in a guy like Josh Johnson though that pushes Kaepernick down to 3rd on the depth chart, and don't think for a second they would go after Johnson and let Smith walk after a playoff year. That's just dumb business and sends the wrong message to the organization.

Alex gave back some of that #1 pick money to stay with the team, and then he takes less money and a 1 year contract to come back a 2nd time. If this play continues you have to take care of him. If you don't other players will take notice and it will affect the chemistry of the team.