Second cup of Coffee Talk

[dash]

 

[elocomotive]

I think a lot of folks thought he was just being inflammatory to get attention, and voted for him for simply not being a lifelong politician. Now that they see he wasn't just being inflammatory for attention, but is in fact this abrasive and incompetent, his numbers are waning. That's likely to continue, and statements like this one accelerate that process.

Yup. Survey data and panels show that a certain portion of his base seem immune to almost anything he does (compromise our electoral system, policies that are clearly racially biased, lack of understanding of even basic history and policy matters). But it also shows that even among his voters, they have huge concerns about his tweeting in general and his stances on areas where there shouldn't be a difficult time taking the right position (example: denouncing white supremacists).

He barely won the electoral college and didn't win the popular vote at all. It won't take a significant shift in swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to change the election results in 2020. There was also a lack of interest from the Democrats partly because Hillary wasn't a strong candidate (not talking about her acumen, just her appeal by the poll numbers) and because it seemed like she was going to win. So I think it's safe to say that turnout for the Democrats will be much stronger in 2020. He's galvanizing and mobilizing young and minority voters that delivered for Obama and stayed home in 2016. That alone could swing the election, but I have to imagine independents that ignored his racism and meglomania won't do the same again. Especially in light of the fact that the one thing he was supposed to be good at - dealmaking and action - has been completely inept.

This is all assuming he isn't ousted from office prior to that, which I would say is unlikely, but not extremely so.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Except that there is. His demonizing of anyone with skin darker (at least, less orange) than him plays well with his base. The fact that they're Americans doesn't matter to a lot of the people who voted for him and he knows that he can exploit it.

His "base" is small, though. He's campaigning still, he wants reelection. He's actively alienating like 70% of the population by doing this. There's probably a substantial chunk beside that starting to waffle on him, too.

I think it's more likely he just thinks he's invincible. Or he lacks the impulse control to stop himself from tweeting every stupid thought that comes into his head.

 

[forty_three]

Yup. Survey data and panels show that a certain portion of his base seem immune to almost anything he does

Never forget that Nixon had 25% approval on the day he resigned...

You can't reach some people. Ever.

 

[elocomotive]

Never forget that Nixon had 25% approval on the day he resigned...

You can't reach some people. Ever.

Yup. Tribalism and ignorance.

 

[BGDave]

I think a lot of folks thought he was just being inflammatory to get attention, and voted for him for simply not being a lifelong politician. Now that they see he wasn't just being inflammatory for attention, but is in fact this abrasive and incompetent, his numbers are waning. That's likely to continue, and statements like this one accelerate that process.

I would agree with all of this, and would add that a fair number of his votes came from people who would just not vote for Hillary, no matter who the opponent was. Those people will vote D next time.

 

[BGDave]

Yup. Survey data and panels show that a certain portion of his base seem immune to almost anything he does (compromise our electoral system, policies that are clearly racially biased, lack of understanding of even basic history and policy matters). But it also shows that even among his voters, they have huge concerns about his tweeting in general and his stances on areas where there shouldn't be a difficult time taking the right position (example: denouncing white supremacists).

He barely won the electoral college and didn't win the popular vote at all. It won't take a significant shift in swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to change the election results in 2020. There was also a lack of interest from the Democrats partly because Hillary wasn't a strong candidate (not talking about her acumen, just her appeal by the poll numbers) and because it seemed like she was going to win. So I think it's safe to say that turnout for the Democrats will be much stronger in 2020. He's galvanizing and mobilizing young and minority voters that delivered for Obama and stayed home in 2016. That alone could swing the election, but I have to imagine independents that ignored his racism and meglomania won't do the same again. Especially in light of the fact that the one thing he was supposed to be good at - dealmaking and action - has been completely inept.

This is all assuming he isn't ousted from office prior to that, which I would say is unlikely, but not extremely so.

The Dems will win in 2020 unless they nominate a wholly unelectable candidate. Any moderate with a pulse will win easily.

 

[Comeds]

The Dems will win in 2020 unless they nominate a wholly unelectable candidate. Any moderate with a pulse will win easily.

I'm not certain a woman nominee can win. I have heard too many people complain about little stuff with women candidates besides Hillary.

 

[esls79]

I'm not certain a woman nominee can win. I have heard too many people complain about little stuff with women candidates besides Hillary.

If I could get a line on it, I'd throw down a hundred on Kamala Harris

 

[BGDave]

If I could get a line on it, I'd throw down a hundred on Kamala Harris

No chance. None. Send me your cash instead

 

[BGDave]

I'm not certain a woman nominee can win. I have heard too many people complain about little stuff with women candidates besides Hillary.

You may be right, although I sure hope not.

Condi Rice would have been a good choice. Nikki Haley may check multiple boxes some day.

I want to believe a good female candidate will not be defeated merely by chromosone content. But I am sometimes naive.

 

[Darkstone42]

If I could get a line on it, I'd throw down a hundred on Kamala Harris

Based on the reactions I read of her questioning of Jeff Sessions, there are a lot of people who will portray her considerable legal competence and directness as "disrespectfulness."

 

[dash]

If I could get a line on it, I'd throw down a hundred on Kamala Harris

Kamala has some Canadian roots, she was born in Oakland, CA., but moved to Montreal in the mid-70s and attended high school in Montreal.

/OK, nobody cares about that, either

 

[dash]

Chief of Staff John Kelly is not quitting today and is not getting fired today, either.

 

[dare2be]

I think it's more likely he just thinks he's invincible.

OmniPOTUS.

I'm not certain a woman nominee can win. I have heard too many people complain about little stuff with women candidates besides Hillary.

Does Ann Coulter qualify as a woman?

 

[dash]

Does Ann Coulter qualify as a woman?

 

[Comeds]

OmniPOTUS.


Does Ann Coulter qualify as a woman?

Oddly enough I think the Republicans could get a female candidate elected.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Chief of Staff John Kelly is not quitting today and is not getting fired today, either.

Glad they could set our minds at ease about that one. <golf clap>

Or is the Tronald Dump administration now canned so many of their inner circle that now their letting us know when someone isn't fired? To, ya know, save time.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Trump called the Penguins incredible Patriots. Seven out of the 18 invitees were Americans.

Did he think there the Super BOwl champs, hence the Patriots?

Trump calls Penguins players 'incredible patriots' during White House visit
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/sp...36530588/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
Probably not, so if we're keeping score at home its:

White foreign hockey players at White House = Patriots and American heroes
Black Americans engaged in peaceful protest = sons of bitches

 

[dash]

Black Americans engaged in peaceful protest = People who sell a defective wheelchair to a disabled person.