Realistic trade scenarios for Alex Smith

[MHSL82]

The trade value for Alex went up when we made the league believe we weren't gonna cut him. I didn't think teams would believe us but clearly they did.

I blame Mortensen - and you, the messenger, were almost as bad! I told you, only good vibes, no bad messages. We should all kill the messenger, here.

 

[threelittleturds]

I'm actually a little surprised that they got so much for him too, but with the history of QBs being traded, I figured the niners would get good offers for him. Teams always pay a premium for QBs.

Happy for Alex (IMO, KC should win the AFC West with him), but more happy that the niners have some more good picks to play with. It would have been nice if KC kept the '14 pick and sent over Eric Berry along with the second round though...

Yeah, I guess the moral of this story is to always be a great professional. So much of this never would have happened if Smith didn't handle all of the shitty situations with a great attitude and professionalism. I think the part where Baalke sat down and asked Smith for a list of places he would prefer to go and then Trent worked from the top down to find a good trade for the 49ers is awesome. Stories like that are going to make guys want to be a 49er again because they know the organization will treat them right.

On the flip side, we saw what acting like a spoiled little bitch gets you with Favre... it gets you sent to the purgatory that is the Jets instead of the team you want to play for (the Vikings).

 

[Robotech]

Yeah, I guess the moral of this story is to always be a great professional. So much of this never would have happened if Smith didn't handle all of the shitty situations with a great attitude and professionalism. I think the part where Baalke sat down and asked Smith for a list of places he would prefer to go and then Trent worked from the top down to find a good trade for the 49ers is awesome. Stories like that are going to make guys want to be a 49er again because they know the organization will treat them right.

On the flip side, we saw what acting like a spoiled little bitch gets you with Favre... it gets you sent to the purgatory that is the Jets instead of the team you want to play for (the Vikings).

I'm happy for Alex. It seems he's found a good home. Also, if he succeeds, then we succeed in that we get a better pick next year.

 

[threelittleturds]

I'm happy for Alex. It seems he's found a good home. Also, if he succeeds, then we succeed in that we get a better pick next year.

Yeah, I'll definitely be rooting for Alex to succeed and meet the conditions that will bump up that 2014 pick. I'm also glad that he went to a coach with one of the better offensive minds in the NFL. Also, he is an easy guy to wish success on since he is a good dude, I'd feel bad for the guy if he ever has to go through a Singletary type situation again.

 

[dredinis21]

I have no problem admitting that I am wrong here....kinda. I don't feel I am wrong in my assessment of Smith as a QB, average QB that needs a lot of complementary parts and asteady, short pass offense that doesn't call for him to throw the ball downfield in order to be effective. The fact that his cap hit would be 8.5 mil next season, the fact that Kaep is now our QB full time, the fact that we would be essentially cutting him if no trade offers came led me to believe that if we received a 4th for him, we would have hit pay-dirt. What I didn't take into account was the hard-on that Andy Reid has had for Alex since 2005, how shitty and depressing this draft's QB situation seems to be, and how many of the QB-starved teams would be interested in a guy who is who he is and most likely won't get much better then he has shown up to this point. KC makes sense because they may be one of the most talented 2-14 teams in the history of the league, having the 5th best running game last year, and a promising defense.

 

[MHSL82]

KC makes sense because they may be one of the most talented 2-14 teams in the history of the league, having the 5th best running game last year, and a promising defense.

Yeah, there will be a split with KC fans even if they win. Some will praise Smith and some will say that it was the team and the coach. Just say all of the above, IMO. If they start winning and can't be happy, then they don't deserve to win. If they lose, it'll be the same - those that are looking for a scapegoat will say they are talented and Alex sucks and others will say that it was a 2-14 team not understanding how good that 2-14 team was.

 

[joshuar56]

Who are you?

Oh now I remember.

You're the guy who said we were going to get the first pick of the second round and a conditional third rounder from which could be bumped to a second rounder in 2014. Good job.

Oh wait - No. I don't think you're that guy because no one on this forum even came close to predicting that KC was going to pony up such high picks.

Did you want to add anything else - make any other predictions? Or will you just wait around for everything to play out and say I told you so when you didn't say anything up front? I thought so.

You're right I didn't say that. I also didn't say were would be lucky to get a 5th. You know why? Because I'm not an NFL GM, and neither are any of the posters on here, although some would like to think they could be. I've been lurking on this thread since Ray first made the 5th round comment. Did I think we would get a 2nd rounder and then some? No, but I definitely thought a 3rd rounder was more than likely. All you had to do was look at the past few QB trades and the current draft QB stock, and not be an Alex hater to know he was worth more than a 5th rounder. That and have a lick of football sense.
So did I predict what would happen? No, but I also didn't say something stupid like "lucky to get a 5th rounder" or "this is the worst trade ever".

 

[HammerDown]

 

[Ray_Dogg]

I'm not an Alex hater and I said a 5th round pick because everyone of us on here knew we would cut Smith. Thankfully there was another GM who didn't so he paid the cost. As an opposing GM I would have called the 49ers bluff and just waited to sign him in free agency. The Chiefs opening, coach, and cast would have worked strongly in favor of Alex choosing them. I don't see another team beating their contract terms either.

 

[4lifer9er]

I think we would have traded him eventually.

 

[joshuar56]

I'm not an Alex hater and I said a 5th round pick because everyone of us on here knew we would cut Smith. Thankfully there was another GM who didn't so he paid the cost. As an opposing GM I would have called the 49ers bluff and just waited to sign him in free agency. The Chiefs opening, coach, and cast would have worked strongly in favor of Alex choosing them. I don't see another team beating their contract terms either.

My original post quoting you was just some well earned ribbing.

Also if the 9ers were gonna cut Smith, and if a team did try and wait it out and then sign him, first you have to complete with more teams in trying to sign him. Second, that drives his average salary and years wanted up. This way the Chiefs get him at a decent price, and aren't committed to him long term.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

My original post quoting you was just some well earned ribbing.

Also if the 9ers were gonna cut Smith, and if a team did try and wait it out and then sign him, first you have to complete with more teams in trying to sign him. Second, that drives his average salary and years wanted up. This way the Chiefs get him at a decent price, and aren't committed to him long term.

I'm not buying that. I explained why. The Chiefs are the best fit for Alex and he knows that. They have the Coach, supporting cast, #1 overall pick, and tons of cap space. I don't see how a team would have paid him more than the Chiefs on the open market. I also doubt they would have had to go any higher than what his current contract is. The rest of the league felt we were content to keep Alex as a backup. This is why I think Baalke is a God. I guess I also have the Raiders to thank.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

You're right I didn't say that. I also didn't say were would be lucky to get a 5th. You know why? Because I'm not an NFL GM, and neither are any of the posters on here, although some would like to think they could be. I've been lurking on this thread since Ray first made the 5th round comment. Did I think we would get a 2nd rounder and then some? No, but I definitely thought a 3rd rounder was more than likely. All you had to do was look at the past few QB trades and the current draft QB stock, and not be an Alex hater to know he was worth more than a 5th rounder. That and have a lick of football sense.
So did I predict what would happen? No, but I also didn't say something stupid like "lucky to get a 5th rounder" or "this is the worst trade ever".

I have a question for you: when did I say they "were lucky to get a 5th rounder?" I never said that. Don't lump everyone together. Congrats on the bold - a 3rd or 4th round pick was pretty much the consensus on here of what we'd reasonably hope to get for him based on all the factors including his existing contract which was also discussed in another thread.

So this is good - if you say he was probably worth a 3rd or 4th round pick this was a very bad trade because KC gave up way more than that. A high second and an additional 2nd aren't even in the same ball park as a 3rd or 4th round pick. The trade equivalent on the trade value chart of the 34th pick is 560 points. The low future second round pick can be estimated at about 140 points (26th slot). Let me break this down for you: the value is the equivalent of over five mid 3rd round picks this year. It is also the equivalent of a 26th overall 1st Rd pick this year. That is what KC gave up to get him.

Furthermore, there are only a few Alex Smith haters here in this forum. I am not one of them. You are biasing the trade based on Alex Smith haters who are not Alex Smith haters.

Finally - GM's are not Gods. They do stupid things all the time out of greed and desperation. Just because KC got completely fleeced in this deal doesn't make it smart to point out after the fact that everyone on this forum is stupid because they couldn't guess how dumb some team's FO could be. That is not logical.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

This was the game changer 7 days ago:
@evansilva: ESPN's Chris Mortensen on possibility of #49ers releasing Alex Smith: "I'm told that's highly, highly, highly unlikely."

 

[SY8goat]

This was the game changer 7 days ago:
@evansilva: ESPN's Chris Mortensen on possibility of #49ers releasing Alex Smith: "I'm told that's highly, highly, highly unlikely."

Well with the stricter concussion rules and Kaepernick's running ability, I could see why the 49ers would not want release Smith.


IMO, the stricter concussion rules increase the value of the back of QB.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

this is another reason why we should draft QB first, if Harbaugh sees another great QB? not one of the bigger reasons, but a reason.

teams with no QB's have no choice but to overpay.

What do you mean by "first"? Again with our first round pick? Or even trading up? Cause we just traded Smith, a former first overall pick, for the 34th pick and a conditional pick. That's a loss of value. The smart teams take later-round QBs, groom them, and then trade them for good value. That doesn't hold if you take a guy in the first round, especially if he's on the bench behind Kaepernick.

So again, are you advocating taking a QB in the first round, even if it means packaging our first and second (our own) round picks? Assuming, of course, that Harbaugh sees what he saw in Kap. And if you are, when do you envision this guy seeing the field so that he can prove he's worth more than that in a trade? Or showing that he's better than a guy who has been one of the most successful young QBs ever?

 

[deep9er]

Lest we forget, however, that the Niners are now one major shot to Colin Kaepernick away from Scott Tolzien, the 2011 undrafted free agent who has never dressed on a Sunday in his short career. San Francisco might like Tolzien, but I would be stunned if it didn’t seek an upgraded contingency plan behind Kaepernick, who, despite being built like a horse, is more susceptible to injury than a classic dropback passer. The Niners had the NFL's most athletic one-two punch under center prior this trade, with Smith’s size and speed giving San Francisco some continuity in its innovative, read-option scheme if Kaepernick went down. Tolzien's greatest assets are his intangibles; his athleticism is average at best. It will be fascinating to see if the Niners place greater value on acquiring a mobile backup for their young phenom, Kaepernick.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

I could see the team signing Josh Johnson again. I'm also fairly confident they draft a QB that flies under the radar in the later rounds.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Lest we forget, however, that the Niners are now one major shot to Colin Kaepernick away from Scott Tolzien, the 2011 undrafted free agent who has never dressed on a Sunday in his short career. San Francisco might like Tolzien, but I would be stunned if it didn’t seek an upgraded contingency plan behind Kaepernick, who, despite being built like a horse, is more susceptible to injury than a classic dropback passer. The Niners had the NFL's most athletic one-two punch under center prior this trade, with Smith’s size and speed giving San Francisco some continuity in its innovative, read-option scheme if Kaepernick went down. Tolzien's greatest assets are his intangibles; his athleticism is average at best. It will be fascinating to see if the Niners place greater value on acquiring a mobile backup for their young phenom, Kaepernick.

Is this in response to my post? If so, you didn't come anywhere close to answering my question. I don't think anyone disagrees that we should add a QB this offseason. I'm asking if you would use our first-round pick on one, or trade up.

 

[deep9er]

still feel the odds are low we draft a QB at 31st, but it isn't 100% certain we won't. so like most teams in most drafts, the first position you look at is QB. after trading Alex we will need a QB, so look at QB's first. if not enough value at 31st, then draft something else. nothing complicated about it.


Plus, the Niners under GM Trent Baalke and head coach Jim Harbaugh have been astute in going after talent perhaps undervalued by others – Kaepernick and Tolzien, for instance – and Jones might fall into that category.

A new quarterback evaluation system by Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders and analyst Dave Lewin that factors in a number of elements – including college games started, completion rate, body mass index, etc. – rates Jones the No. 1 quarterback in the draft. Last season the formula ranked Russell Wilson No. 1, ahead of Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck, which proved prescient.

Jones’ QB guru, Whitfield, told USA Today at the Combine that after working with Jones for seven weeks, he believes Jones is now a first-round talent comparable to the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan.

“He’s absolutely a first rounder, especially when you look at not only his class, but classes prior to this one,” Whitfield said. He went on to say that like Ryan, Jones used all four years of eligibility and is a student of the game.

“The Atlanta Falcons took a senior who played an awful lot of games at Boston College, and they hooked that wagon to him. Landry is a little bit bigger than Matt Ryan… (and) Landry is a master distributor.”

Do the 49ers see in Jones what Whitfield does? It’s impossible to say. But no doubt they have their focus on one of these QBs they believe is undervalued and can be taken in the mid rounds – after addressing more immediate needs on the defensive line, at wideout and perhaps the secondary.