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Series Thread: Rangers Host the White Sox for Three Games August 1-3

WilltheThrill

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You bring up some interesting topics.

How many of our guys without elite superstar status should we trade?

Who do we have that fits into that category? Any? Should we trade the rest since we are unlikely to regret trading them?

How should we judge a trade? Should we wait to see how everyone pans out and use hindsight? Or, should we put a value on who is involved based on the various factors and determine if the value received is worth the value given up?

Prospects value is always based in potential. That value is there without knowing if that potential is going to result in a good MLB player or not. The value therefore is only about potential. That's why to me, trades involving prospects should be judged at the time of the trade, and not years down the line.

There is so much involved in discussing something like this. The supply and demand factor is a huge factor. There are lots of others too. That's why folks can have such different opinions because there is no formula to use that we can input the factors into to come up with the answer.
The way I personally look at it is this:

Every system has a very small number of “can’t miss” studs with elite ceilings. These guys usually, but not always, pan out. You hold on to those guys at all costs, unless you are receiving an already established elite All-Star (like an Acuna type). The Rangers have 2 of those (Langford and Carter). That’s a future Mike Trout and outfield-playing Corey Seager.

Then you have the small step down to your “likely won’t miss” guys, players who have elite ceilings but might still be a little raw or maybe have a small red flag or two. For the Rangers, that’s Walcott (a beast, but still raw), White (hasn’t been able to take the final step yet), Leiter (worrisome results), and Porter (still a bit raw). All 4 of those guys have bona fide All-Star ceilings if everything were to go right. You try not to trade those guys as well, but you’ll listen if another team offers up a current All-Star.

Then there’s the next group down, which is comprised of guys who are almost certainly going to be Major League regulars, with some even becoming above average-borderline star players. They just have lower ceilings. That’s where guys like Acuna, Saggese, and Foscue fit. Acuna doesn’t have elite power, he chases too much, and he isn’t blazing fast. But he has the tools to be a 15 HR/20 SB middle infielder. Saggese and Foscue can both flat-out hit. Neither one has big power or a great glove, but their bats will find them a Major League role somewhere. To me, this is the tier you try to build up as much as possible and then trade from because other teams see these guys as valuable (which they are), but you will never be super upset about trading in the future. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of this tier. Do we regret trading him? Well, sure, he could have been a useful rotation piece. But he never turned into a true elite All-Star. So the loss wasn’t all that great. You can ALWAYS trade for another team’s Kyle Hendricks type guy. But you can’t easily trade for Gerrit Cole or Ronald Acuna.

TL/DR version- you need both quality (elite) from which you almost certainly don’t trade, and quantity (from which you freely trade) to run a successful farm system.
 

Senator_fan

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When they change the rules to where baseball is played without fielders, then I will start judging a pitcher by Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).
CY was evaluating players to trade for starting June 1st as he mentioned last night. Do you think he ignores FIP like you are indicating or he considers it a factor on making a trade for pitching?
 

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CY was evaluating players to trade for starting June 1st as he mentioned last night. Do you think he ignores FIP like you are indicating or he considers it a factor on making a trade for pitching?

the only thing CY ignores when it comes to pitching is the bullpen
 

jta4437

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the only thing CY ignores when it comes to pitching is the bullpen
He added 2 RPs, so I wouldn't say he ignored the bullpen, fell short... maybe...

As for the offseason, I'm guessing, for a team that wasn't necessarily expecting to compete like it has, the decision was made to allow the internal options give it a go and make a decision from that point going forward
 

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He added 2 RPs, so I wouldn't say he ignored the bullpen, fell short... maybe...

As for the offseason, I'm guessing, for a team that wasn't necessarily expecting to compete like it has, the decision was made to allow the internal options give it a go and make a decision from that point going forward

green text = sarcasm. i agree with you on the bullpen
 

scotsman1948

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He added 2 RPs, so I wouldn't say he ignored the bullpen, fell short... maybe...

As for the offseason, I'm guessing, for a team that wasn't necessarily expecting to compete like it has, the decision was made to allow the internal options give it a go and make a decision from that point going forward
we are going to have to deal with the bullpen this off season without fail. Chapman, Smith & Stratton are free agents. Leclerc has an option that won’t be picked up. That leaves Sborz, Burke & Anderson
 

saddles

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The way I personally look at it is this:

Every system has a very small number of “can’t miss” studs with elite ceilings. These guys usually, but not always, pan out. You hold on to those guys at all costs, unless you are receiving an already established elite All-Star (like an Acuna type). The Rangers have 2 of those (Langford and Carter). That’s a future Mike Trout and outfield-playing Corey Seager.

Then you have the small step down to your “likely won’t miss” guys, players who have elite ceilings but might still be a little raw or maybe have a small red flag or two. For the Rangers, that’s Walcott (a beast, but still raw), White (hasn’t been able to take the final step yet), Leiter (worrisome results), and Porter (still a bit raw). All 4 of those guys have bona fide All-Star ceilings if everything were to go right. You try not to trade those guys as well, but you’ll listen if another team offers up a current All-Star.

Then there’s the next group down, which is comprised of guys who are almost certainly going to be Major League regulars, with some even becoming above average-borderline star players. They just have lower ceilings. That’s where guys like Acuna, Saggese, and Foscue fit. Acuna doesn’t have elite power, he chases too much, and he isn’t blazing fast. But he has the tools to be a 15 HR/20 SB middle infielder. Saggese and Foscue can both flat-out hit. Neither one has big power or a great glove, but their bats will find them a Major League role somewhere. To me, this is the tier you try to build up as much as possible and then trade from because other teams see these guys as valuable (which they are), but you will never be super upset about trading in the future. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of this tier. Do we regret trading him? Well, sure, he could have been a useful rotation piece. But he never turned into a true elite All-Star. So the loss wasn’t all that great. You can ALWAYS trade for another team’s Kyle Hendricks type guy. But you can’t easily trade for Gerrit Cole or Ronald Acuna.

TL/DR version- you need both quality (elite) from which you almost certainly don’t trade, and quantity (from which you freely trade) to run a successful farm system.
That is a great way of looking at it.

I think if you asked five different people you could get five explanations that could all seem like a great way of looking at it.

Folks are going to disagree at times simply because there are so many different ways to look at it, and so many factors to weigh, with different weights that can be given to those factors. It is a very complex subject.
 

saddles

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CY was evaluating players to trade for starting June 1st as he mentioned last night. Do you think he ignores FIP like you are indicating or he considers it a factor on making a trade for pitching?
I have no idea. I wasn't trying to guess what anyone else does. I simply don't agree with the theory behind the formula.
 

saddles

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we are going to have to deal with the bullpen this off season without fail. Chapman, Smith & Stratton are free agents. Leclerc has an option that won’t be picked up. That leaves Sborz, Burke & Anderson
They have young starting pitchers, some of which have already appeared up here, at the top of the system that they will probably depend on to fill roles in the pen. That has been their MO for a long time now.
 

scotsman1948

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They have young starting pitchers, some of which have already appeared up here, at the top of the system that they will probably depend on to fill roles in the pen. That has been their MO for a long time now.
Well hopefully we change our MO because we need quality BP arms
 

WilltheThrill

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the NL is absolutely frightening this season, and the Braves are at the top of that totem pole.
I know many here will likely disagree, but I think the Braves are the only team against which the Rangers can’t compete. Any other team I truly believe they could beat in a series.
 

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I know many here will likely disagree, but I think the Braves are the only team against which the Rangers can’t compete. Any other team I truly believe they could beat in a series.

I definitely disagree, having sat through a complete ass-whopping against the Dodgers in person.
 
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