WilltheThrill
Well-Known Member
The way I personally look at it is this:You bring up some interesting topics.
How many of our guys without elite superstar status should we trade?
Who do we have that fits into that category? Any? Should we trade the rest since we are unlikely to regret trading them?
How should we judge a trade? Should we wait to see how everyone pans out and use hindsight? Or, should we put a value on who is involved based on the various factors and determine if the value received is worth the value given up?
Prospects value is always based in potential. That value is there without knowing if that potential is going to result in a good MLB player or not. The value therefore is only about potential. That's why to me, trades involving prospects should be judged at the time of the trade, and not years down the line.
There is so much involved in discussing something like this. The supply and demand factor is a huge factor. There are lots of others too. That's why folks can have such different opinions because there is no formula to use that we can input the factors into to come up with the answer.
Every system has a very small number of “can’t miss” studs with elite ceilings. These guys usually, but not always, pan out. You hold on to those guys at all costs, unless you are receiving an already established elite All-Star (like an Acuna type). The Rangers have 2 of those (Langford and Carter). That’s a future Mike Trout and outfield-playing Corey Seager.
Then you have the small step down to your “likely won’t miss” guys, players who have elite ceilings but might still be a little raw or maybe have a small red flag or two. For the Rangers, that’s Walcott (a beast, but still raw), White (hasn’t been able to take the final step yet), Leiter (worrisome results), and Porter (still a bit raw). All 4 of those guys have bona fide All-Star ceilings if everything were to go right. You try not to trade those guys as well, but you’ll listen if another team offers up a current All-Star.
Then there’s the next group down, which is comprised of guys who are almost certainly going to be Major League regulars, with some even becoming above average-borderline star players. They just have lower ceilings. That’s where guys like Acuna, Saggese, and Foscue fit. Acuna doesn’t have elite power, he chases too much, and he isn’t blazing fast. But he has the tools to be a 15 HR/20 SB middle infielder. Saggese and Foscue can both flat-out hit. Neither one has big power or a great glove, but their bats will find them a Major League role somewhere. To me, this is the tier you try to build up as much as possible and then trade from because other teams see these guys as valuable (which they are), but you will never be super upset about trading in the future. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of this tier. Do we regret trading him? Well, sure, he could have been a useful rotation piece. But he never turned into a true elite All-Star. So the loss wasn’t all that great. You can ALWAYS trade for another team’s Kyle Hendricks type guy. But you can’t easily trade for Gerrit Cole or Ronald Acuna.
TL/DR version- you need both quality (elite) from which you almost certainly don’t trade, and quantity (from which you freely trade) to run a successful farm system.