Random FF Thoughts

[Lamarvelous]

Based on 8 games?
What about the the other 54?
Tough defensive division too.

Based on his skill and the situation he is now in. No back is going to succeed playing in Miami under fucking Adam Gase.

 

[averagejoe]

The ancient Frank Gore had more yards in Miami under Gase than Drake. But hey, glad you love Drake.

 

[averagejoe]

Didnt look at his history, but pretty sure Gase has had a 1000 yard rusher as OC or head coach... except for Drake.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Didnt look at his history, but pretty sure Gase has had a 1000 yard rusher as OC or head coach... except for Drake.

I'm with ya on this one Joe - the range of outcomes for Drake seem to be way too wide for end of 1st round pick.

I'd rather take A Jones, rookies with big muscles don't scare me.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Didnt look at his history, but pretty sure Gase has had a 1000 yard rusher as OC or head coach... except for Drake.

Yes sir, just to risky for such a early pick at the RB position. You can't afford to have the RB you drafted to be RB1 round one or top of the second, end up being a dud. String of games last season vs his career production.

 

[Stomp]

The ancient Frank Gore had more yards in Miami under Gase than Drake. But hey, glad you love Drake.

If were talking 2018 the only year they played together

Drake 477 offensive snaps 1012 yards 9 TDs
Gore 555 offensive snaps 846 yards 1 TD

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Drake 4 year stats:



They don't look like a round 1 choice to me.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Drake 4 year stats:

View attachment 251616

They don't look like a round 1 choice to me.

I wouldn't draft him in the 1st or 2nd tbh

 

[Stomp]

Gase doing Gase things Bells upside`

 

[Lamarvelous]

Drake 4 year stats:

View attachment 251616

They don't look like a round 1 choice to me.

What about the stat where he was top 25 (overall) in yards per touch last year? And top 25 in yards per touch in 2018? And top 15 in 2017?

Maybe, just maybe, Drake has been good all along and it's the coach he had (until KLIFFY BABY) that wasn't utilizing him properly??

PS... he was tied with Alvin Kamara in 2019 and 2018 as far as yards per touch.

 

[SteelersPride]

What about the stat where he was top 25 (overall) in yards per touch last year? And top 25 in yards per touch in 2018? And top 15 in 2017?

Maybe, just maybe, Drake has been good all along and it's the coach he had (until KLIFFY BABY) that wasn't utilizing him properly??

PS... he was tied with Alvin Kamara in 2019 and 2018 as far as yards per touch.

Sometimes I think that..... and occasionally there is the RARE EXAMPLE where that is true.

but more often than not , there is a reason for it.

you can point to a handful of players and say “look there is your proof , look what he did”..... yeah and look at the other 18373626 examples tht went the other way.

more often than not there’s a reason they didn’t get the rock. But drake got hit at the right time and got into a sweet system, the cards are in his favor here imho

 

[Lamarvelous]

Sometimes I think that..... and occasionally there is the RARE EXAMPLE where that is true.

but more often than not , there is a reason for it.

you can point to a handful of players and say “look there is your proof , look what he did”..... yeah and look at the other 18373626 examples tht went the other way.

more often than not there’s a reason they didn’t get the rock. But drake got hit at the right time and got into a sweet system, the cards are in his favor here imho

I think the reason his bulk stats are what they are is kinda obvious. Gase benefited IMMENSELY from having Peyton in 13 and 14. As soon as he didn't have an all-time great QB, his offensive numbers went to shit sans the Jay Ajayi Miami year which might actually fall into what you mentioned in the first part of your post.

 

[SteelersPride]

I think the reason his bulk stats are what they are is kinda obvious. Gase benefited IMMENSELY from having Peyton in 13 and 14. As soon as he didn't have an all-time great QB, his offensive numbers went to shit sans the Jay Ajayi Miami year which might actually fall into what you mentioned in the first part of your post.

But look at a guy like gio Bernard.... iirc . I didn’t check, his stats are good
Too, a lot of backups “bulk” numbers
Look swell...

 

[averagejoe]

Maybe, just maybe, Drake has been good all along and it's the coach he had (until KLIFFY BABY) that wasn't utilizing him properly??

Could be true.
Could be a late bloomer like Thomas Jones.
Stats like that are good but we dont know the whole story. Does he execute plays properly? Or does he freelance? We dont know if this raises the ire in some coaches.
Maybe Gase is an idiot, but again, if you look at the RB he has had, if Drake were as good as his stats say, you have to wonder why he was traded.

I have an unwritten rule in fantasy. Fairly dependable. If a RB doesnt stand out in his first year or two, he wont. Drake is 26.

@SteelersPride threw out Gio Bernard... Gus Edwards is another. His attempt yardage is incredible. Back to my point, obviously the coaches dont see him that way.

 

[TREFF]

What about the stat where he was top 25 (overall) in yards per touch last year? And top 25 in yards per touch in 2018? And top 15 in 2017?

Maybe, just maybe, Drake has been good all along and it's the coach he had (until KLIFFY BABY) that wasn't utilizing him properly??

PS... he was tied with Alvin Kamara in 2019 and 2018 as far as yards per touch.

Top 25's and Top 15's are impressive, but not first round impressive...thats the overall point. I don't think anyone is saying he isnt any good, or even that he isnt a weekly starter, just that his history doesn't justify a first round pick. He'd truly have to nearly double his best season yardage wise (about %175 in actuallity) to justify a first round pick. Theres no upside, no value, as youre drafting him with the expectations of him hitting a hypothetical ceiling that his history suggests he isnt at all a lock to hit. Its a leap of faith.

I think its also worth noting that 303 yds of his 817 yards (%37), and 6 of his 9 TD's (%66.7) came in two games, versus Cleveland, 30th vs the run, and Seattle, 22nd vs the run. For what its worth, the Seattle defense was missing starting safety Diggs, starting CB Griffin, and starting DE Clowney for that game as well.

If a two game sample justifies a first round pick, then Jonas Gray should've been at least a second round pick in 2015.

Again, not dismissing that hes a solid NFL RB, in a pretty sweet position offensive scheme wise. Just saying that a first round pick is a leap

 

[SteelersPride]

Could be true.
Could be a late bloomer like Thomas Jones.
Stats like that are good but we dont know the whole story. Does he execute plays properly? Or does he freelance? We dont know if this raises the ire in some coaches.
Maybe Gase is an idiot, but again, if you look at the RB he has had, if Drake were as good as his stats say, you have to wonder why he was traded.

I have an unwritten rule in fantasy. Fairly dependable. If a RB doesnt stand out in his first year or two, he wont. Drake is 26.

@SteelersPride threw out Gio Bernard... Gus Edwards is another. His attempt yardage is incredible. Back to my point, obviously the coaches dont see him that way.

look at a matt breida. Hes never had a game with 17 or more carries. He averages a massive 5.0 ypc..........
He can catch........consistently plays under 20% of the snaps in a game in his career.

 

[Lamarvelous]

Top 25's and Top 15's are impressive, but not first round impressive...thats the overall point. I don't think anyone is saying he isnt any good, or even that he isnt a weekly starter, just that his history doesn't justify a first round pick. He'd truly have to nearly double his best season yardage wise (about %175 in actuallity) to justify a first round pick. Theres no upside, no value, as youre drafting him with the expectations of him hitting a hypothetical ceiling that his history suggests he isnt at all a lock to hit. Its a leap of faith.

I think its also worth noting that 303 yds of his 817 yards (%37), and 6 of his 9 TD's (%66.7) came in two games, versus Cleveland, 30th vs the run, and Seattle, 22nd vs the run. For what its worth, the Seattle defense was missing starting safety Diggs, starting CB Griffin, and starting DE Clowney for that game as well.

If a two game sample justifies a first round pick, then Jonas Gray should've been at least a second round pick in 2015.

Again, not dismissing that hes a solid NFL RB, in a pretty sweet position offensive scheme wise. Just saying that a first round pick is a leap

Is it a leap of faith, maybe... but so is drafting Jacobs, or Sanders, Or mixon, or just about any RB in the late 1st/early 2nd this year. I'm just more keen on taking the one that's in the best offensive position (by far imo) of them. Doesn't hurt that I believe that Drake is actually #good at football.

Just because he beasted against 2 poor run defenses (what elite backs are supposed to do) doesn't mean he should get knocked. It's funny that those games also happened to be the games where he had the most carries last year. Weird. It's almost like when you use good players they perform well. huh. What about the 110 rushing on 15 carries he put up against SF?

He averaged 100+ yscrm/gm with AZ. I don't think that's sustainable necessarily, but I don't think he's going to be far from it this season.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Is it a leap of faith, maybe... but so is drafting Jacobs, or Sanders, Or mixon, or just about any RB in the late 1st/early 2nd this year. I'm just more keen on taking the one that's in the best offensive position (by far imo) of them. Doesn't hurt that I believe that Drake is actually #good at football.

Just because he beasted against 2 poor run defenses (what elite backs are supposed to do) doesn't mean he should get knocked. It's funny that those games also happened to be the games where he had the most carries last year. Weird. It's almost like when you use good players they perform well. huh. What about the 110 rushing on 15 carries he put up against SF?

He averaged 100+ yscrm/gm with AZ. I don't think that's sustainable necessarily, but I don't think he's going to be far from it this season.

Sanders was a rookie last year and got more carries than Drake's career high...and that's 4 years in the league now.
Mixon's had 237 and 278 carries back to back years.
Jacobs as a rookie had 242 carries.

Not sure anyone of those guys is a good comparison to Drake, who at 26 and plenty of experience has never managed over 170 carries in a season. That's a bit of a stretch. I don't know if anything will justify him of being 1st round pick worthy.

At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.

So if you are sitting at the 10-12 range, you are telling me you would pick Drake after this draft order-PPR 12 team?

1. McCaffrey
2. Zeke
3. Barkley
4. Kamara
5. Cook
6. Thomas
7. Henry
8. CEH
9. Mixon

You have Chubb, Jacobs, Ekeler, A Jones, Adams, Hill, Julio, Hopkins all on the board and you would take Drake. Not buying it. I'm not even thinking about Drake at this point. He isn't on my big board for my 1st or 2nd round pick at this draft spot imo.

 

[SteelersPride]

Is it a leap of faith, maybe... but so is drafting Jacobs, or Sanders, Or mixon, or just about any RB in the late 1st/early 2nd this year. I'm just more keen on taking the one that's in the best offensive position (by far imo) of them. Doesn't hurt that I believe that Drake is actually #good at football.

Just because he beasted against 2 poor run defenses (what elite backs are supposed to do) doesn't mean he should get knocked. It's funny that those games also happened to be the games where he had the most carries last year. Weird. It's almost like when you use good players they perform well. huh. What about the 110 rushing on 15 carries he put up against SF?

He averaged 100+ yscrm/gm with AZ. I don't think that's sustainable necessarily, but I don't think he's going to be far from it this season.

why is jacobs or mixon a leap of faith?

mixon finished as RB 9 in 14 games in 2018, and RB 11 last year......with a massive upgrade all around him......hes kinda shown he can play

Jacobs was first round pick, who finished as RB 14 with only 13 games played and minimal passing involvement..

 

[averagejoe]

I applaud Marv for taking his stand on Drake. Gotta go with what you feel. And Im not trying to be sarcastic, but I hope there is a Drake owner in my redraft league draft in 2 weeks.

Agree 99.99% with SJ. But Im not drafting CEH or Chubb in the first round either. But spot on with the reasoning.