QB options for next year

[Dr. Strangelove]

Ultimately, Penix's draft slot will probably be driven more team needs than some general draft value. Penix could be anywhere between QB4 and QB7 with QB4/5 being the most likely slot.

Honestly, there will probably be at least 6 teams picking in the top 15 looking at QB and at least 3 in the top 5, more than likely. Everybody after Williams and Maye are kind of a toss-up but it wouldn't surprise me if Penix was the 3rd QB off the board. Obviously, it's debatable if he should be that high but given what we've seen from some teams, it wouldn't be a shocker. Nix and Mccarthy are likely 2nd or 3rd rounders in reality but they could easily go in the first. Daniels might be the wild card. It could be Daniels/ Penix or Penix/ Daniels.

 

[JMR]

Honestly, there will probably be at least 6 teams picking in the top 15 looking at QB and at least 3 in the top 5, more than likely. Everybody after Williams and Maye are kind of a toss-up but it wouldn't surprise me if Penix was the 3rd QB off the board. Obviously, it's debatable if he should be that high but given what we've seen from some teams, it wouldn't be a shocker. Nix and Mccarthy are likely 2nd or 3rd rounders in reality but they could easily go in the first. Daniels might be the wild card. It could be Daniels/ Penix or Penix/ Daniels.

Yeah, I think this is probably accurate. We all know NFL teams tend to over-draft QBs. In a year where it seems QBs are likely to go 1-2, I think that means we will see at least 4 go in round 1.

 

[flyerhawk]

Honestly, there will probably be at least 6 teams picking in the top 15 looking at QB and at least 3 in the top 5, more than likely. Everybody after Williams and Maye are kind of a toss-up but it wouldn't surprise me if Penix was the 3rd QB off the board. Obviously, it's debatable if he should be that high but given what we've seen from some teams, it wouldn't be a shocker. Nix and Mccarthy are likely 2nd or 3rd rounders in reality but they could easily go in the first. Daniels might be the wild card. It could be Daniels/ Penix or Penix/ Daniels.

I would be absolutely SHOCKED if 6 teams draft a QB in the first round. The last time there were 6 QBs drafted in the 1st round was 1983.

 

[JMR]

I would be absolutely SHOCKED if 6 teams draft a QB in the first round. The last time there were 6 QBs drafted in the 1st round was 1983.

6 probably won't be taken, but I can see that 6 teams will be going into the draft with a QB target for rnd 1. An early run on the position like in 2021 or 2018 could definitely happen, so maybe a QB-needy team in the middle of round 1 just doesn't have someone available they would take that early.

 

[flyerhawk]

6 probably won't be taken, but I can see that 6 teams will be going into the draft with a QB target for rnd 1. An early run on the position like in 2021 or 2018 could definitely happen, so maybe a QB-needy team in the middle of round 1 just doesn't have someone available they would take that early.

Not sure I agree that there are 6 teams that would want to draft a QB in the 1st round.

Just a quick look and I see the Pats, Commanders, Broncos and Falcons as the only clear teams that will try and draft a QB. After that you have teams like the Steelers, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, and Bucs that might draft one

Obviously not all 9 teams will draft a QB early. Honestly, it's possible that the Commanders and Broncos don't draft a QB early.

Some teams will depend on whether they have new coaches and what those coaches want to do. The Commanders, Seahawks, and Giants in particular fall in that category.

 

[JMR]

Not sure I agree that there are 6 teams that would want to draft a QB in the 1st round.

Just a quick look and I see the Pats, Commanders, Broncos and Falcons as the only clear teams that will try and draft a QB. After that you have teams like the Steelers, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, and Bucs that might draft one

Obviously not all 9 teams will draft a QB early. Honestly, it's possible that the Commanders and Broncos don't draft a QB early.

Some teams will depend on whether they have new coaches and what those coaches want to do. The Commanders, Seahawks, and Giants in particular fall in that category.

I think the # of teams needing a QB > # of QBs that will be drafted in rnd 1. Some teams will see their guy go off the board before they get a chance, and they'll have to go to plan B.

 

[JMR]

Colin Cowherd a few minutes ago his show:

"So I've talked to 3 NFL Execs in the last 3 weeks on Michael Penix... all of them say he is the best pure thrower of the football since Joe Burrow... and all 3 say they'd be terrified to draft him at the top of the draft."

Now, I have no idea what the context was in regards to "at the top of the draft" -- 1st overall? Just somewhere in the top 5 or 10? And I'm only posting it because we've talked Penix a lot here since last night, and of course it's topical today on the sports channels. Penix might be one of the more interesting draft stories and certainly he's going to be getting tons of airtime for at least the next 6 days.

 

[Anointed One]

Colin Cowherd a few minutes ago his show:

"So I've talked to 3 NFL Execs in the last 3 weeks on Michael Penix... all of them say he is the best pure thrower of the football since Joe Burrow... and all 3 say they'd be terrified to draft him at the top of the draft."

Now, I have no idea what the context was in regards to "at the top of the draft" -- 1st overall? Just somewhere in the top 5 or 10? And I'm only posting it because we've talked Penix a lot here since last night, and of course it's topical today on the sports channels. Penix might be one of the more interesting draft stories and certainly he's going to be getting tons of airtime for at least the next 6 days.

This is part in why I feel that Penix won't make out of the 1st round... If he plays any thing close to the way he did last night in the C-Ship, he will find himself in the top 10 imo... Atlanta would be a great fit for him...

 

[JMR]

This is part in why I feel that Penix won't make out of the 1st round... If he plays any thing close to the way he did last night in the C-Ship, he will find himself in the top 10 imo... Atlanta would be a great fit for him...

Certainly possible. Quite a few QB-needy teams in the top 10. Some of them will be scared off by the injury history. Some might think the talent is worth the risk.

 

[flyerhawk]

This is part in why I feel that Penix won't make out of the 1st round... If he plays any thing close to the way he did last night in the C-Ship, he will find himself in the top 10 imo... Atlanta would be a great fit for him...

Top 10 seems really really unlikely. No matter how he plays on Monday he will still have the same injury concerns.

 

[flyerhawk]

Certainly possible. Quite a few QB-needy teams in the top 10. Some of them will be scared off by the injury history. Some might think the talent is worth the risk.

Penix may turn out to be the best QB of the group. But it seems unlikely that a team would ignore his age and injury risks to take him over the top 3.

I guess it's possible that Penix could be taken 9th by the Falcons. That would assume that the Bears take Williams, Commanders take Maye, and the Pats take Daniels.

 

[Anointed One]

Penix may turn out to be the best QB of the group. But it seems unlikely that a team would ignore his age and injury risks to take him over the top 3.

I guess it's possible that Penix could be taken 9th by the Falcons. That would assume that the Bears take Williams, Commanders take Maye, and the Pats take Daniels.

Has Penix been injured this season? How many games has he missed the last two seasons? I guess I don’t understand why you keep hanging onto the injury history…

 

[flyerhawk]

Has Penix been injured this season? How many games has he missed the last two seasons?

No? That doesn't make his 2 ACLs tears and SC joint dislocation go away.

To be clear here, I have nothing against Penix and I think he could be very good in the NFL. But there is a reason why few draft pundits think he could in the 1st round.

 

[JMR]

Penix may turn out to be the best QB of the group. But it seems unlikely that a team would ignore his age and injury risks to take him over the top 3.

Yeah, no argument. The narrative on Penix is really spinning right now. Joel Klatt was just on Cowherd saying he should go top 5 and not lower than 10. I just wonder how much this stuff is prisoner of the moment talk (which was my point about the mocks) from last night, but I agree the injury risk is likely to pull him down a little bit. I would love to see where he is on actual NFL draft boards -- not sports journalists' mocks -- as of 24 hours ago vs now or a week from now. Do NFL teams even make their draft boards and/or grade players this far out?

I guess it's possible that Penix could be taken 9th by the Falcons. That would assume that the Bears take Williams, Commanders take Maye, and the Pats take Daniels.

That would be wild. But certainly possible. Teams are more willing to take big risks on QBs than any other position, as we all know.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yeah, no argument. The narrative on Penix is really spinning right now. Joel Klatt was just on Cowherd saying he should go top 5 and not lower than 10. I just wonder how much this stuff is prisoner of the moment talk (which was my point about the mocks) from last night, but I agree the injury risk is likely to pull him down a little bit. I would love to see where he is on actual NFL draft boards -- not sports journalists' mocks -- as of 24 hours ago vs now or a week from now. Do NFL teams even make their draft boards and/or grade players this far out?

I agree with you that there is some prisoner of the moment stuff. And I also agree, as I did with you before these games, that the teams aren't going to go gaga with him because he played well. While I certainly think that the performance will enhance his draft standing, it's not going to take him from the early 2nd round to the top 10, much less the top 5.

I think his Pro day may have a big impact on his draft stock as well.

That would be wild. But certainly possible. Teams are more willing to take big risks on QBs than any other position, as we all know.

It could happen. The Bears are a complete wildcard. If they don't trade Fields, then I would expect them to trade the pick. Unless they are in love with Harrison, would they be willing to trade down with the Falcons and get a similar haul as they did last year?

 

[Anointed One]

No? That doesn't make his 2 ACLs tears and SC joint dislocation go away.

To be clear here, I have nothing against Penix and I think he could be very good in the NFL. But there is a reason why few draft pundits think he could in the 1st round.

I get that but he's played 2 years straight w/out missing a game... It's a reason some of those pundits have been changing their tune on Penix...

 

[flyerhawk]

I get that but he's played 2 years straight w/out missing a game... It's a reason some of those pundits have been changing their tune on Penix...

I would temper anything you are hearing today as pundits have a tendency to overreact to every big game. If Penix were to struggle against Michigan net Monday, a lot of those same pundits will trash him.

 

[JMR]

It could happen. The Bears are a complete wildcard. If they don't trade Fields, then I would expect them to trade the pick. Unless they are in love with Harrison, would they be willing to trade down with the Falcons and get a similar haul as they did last year?

Chicago is in the catbird's seat. They may end up better off by trading the pick, but they are set up incredibly well with 2 top picks plus a potential hot trade commodity in Fields. Depending on what the Footballskins think of Drake Maye (or whoever they view as QB2), they may even be willing to pull a Trubisky to move up 1 spot for Caleb Williams. That deal would be oozing with irony -- Bears on the other end of it this time, and a UNC QB indirectly involved.

I would temper anything you are hearing today as pundits have a tendency to overreact to every big game. If Penix were to struggle against Michigan net Monday, a lot of those same pundits will trash him.

And if McCarthy plays great on Monday, a lot of the praise being lavished on Penix today will shift to him.

 

[flyerhawk]

Chicago is in the catbird's seat. They may end up better off by trading the pick, but they are set up incredibly well with 2 top picks plus a potential hot trade commodity in Fields. Depending on what the Footballskins think of Drake Maye (or whoever they view as QB2), they may even be willing to pull a Trubisky to move up 1 spot for Caleb Williams. That deal would be oozing with irony -- Bears on the other end of it this time, and a UNC QB indirectly involved.

Yeah a lot of things could happen. Should be interesting to see what Poles does.

And if McCarthy plays great on Monday, a lot of the praise being lavished on Penix today will shift to him.

Certainly. And they both may get a bump from these games. But the chance that one of them will skyrocket to the top 10 seems unrealstic.

 

[Anointed One]

I would temper anything you are hearing today as pundits have a tendency to overreact to every big game. If Penix were to struggle against Michigan net Monday, a lot of those same pundits will trash him.

The overreaction/underreaction, what have you, has nothing to do with his injury history...