QB options for next year

[flyerhawk]

Weren't considered top tier talents? By whom? Not the NFL teams who drafted them at the top of the draft. I guess your talking about pundits and media figures who have way to much influence with the public perception of who is good and who isn't. It's almost laughable how they puff up this player or that player only to be oh so wrong.

Lots of people are wrong. Pundits, coaches, fans. No one knows for sure.

But guys like Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow were considered can't miss prospects. Williams was before this season but has dropped off a bit.

 

[JMR]

Weren't considered top tier talents? By whom? Not the NFL teams who drafted them at the top of the draft. I guess your talking about pundits and media figures who have way to much influence with the public perception of who is good and who isn't. It's almost laughable how they puff up this player or that player only to be oh so wrong.

The ironic thing about this statement is that your (and my) opinion of how good these players are is largely influenced by pundits and media figures who you point out as being frequently incorrect, yet it doesn't stop you from saying how terrible of a pick it was to take this player or that player during the draft.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Willing to give up both 1sts for him? He looked good running the ball. Pretty pedestrian throwing it.

2 firsts is moving up to the top of the draft. 1 first is jumping the Colts. Stroud started off slow until he got going and look what he was doing. Richardson could have had that chance as well but injury cut him down early.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I'm simply trying to quantify what you would be willing to do. You've already said that you wished they traded the #5, another 1st, 2 2nds and Metcalf to get the No. 1 pick. I find that an unacceptable amount to give up ESPECIALLY given that none of the QBs were considered top tier talents.

We aren't likely to win a Super Bowl with Geno or Lock. No question about that. We are also not going to win a Super Bowl without talent around the roster.

That's incorrect. Both Stroud and Young were considered top tier talents. Just like Williams coming out of USC as a top tier, both those guys were in the same boat.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The ironic thing about this statement is that your (and my) opinion of how good these players are is largely influenced by pundits and media figures who you point out as being frequently incorrect, yet it doesn't stop you from saying how terrible of a pick it was to take this player or that player during the draft.

Perhaps, but the NFL draft takes the speculation out of who is really considered a top tier player and now we've seen them play and Shroud at the very least has played like a top tier rookie QB and Richardson also started for the Colts and looked the part of a starting QB, Levi is up in the air and while Young is struggling on a awful Panther team he could still work out. This was a good draft for QBs and that even leaving out lower drafted QBs like Prudy.

 

[flyerhawk]

That's incorrect. Both Stroud and Young were considered top tier talents. Just like Williams coming out of USC as a top tier, both those guys were in the same boat.

Both of them have huge questions marks. Young because of his frame and Stroud because of his lack of athleticism. Neither was considered anywhere close to a can't miss prospect.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Both of them have huge questions marks. Young because of his frame and Stroud because of his lack of athleticism. Neither was considered anywhere close to a can't miss prospect.

Can't miss QBs are mostly myth. The very few promoted as such are so far and few you*do have to wait a decade or two for one to be in a draft. It's not practical to insist on a can't miss QB.

 

[flyerhawk]

2 firsts is moving up to the top of the draft. 1 first is jumping the Colts. Stroud started off slow until he got going and look what he was doing. Richardson could have had that chance as well but injury cut him down early.

The Texans traded from 12 to 3 and gave up #12, their 2024 first round pick, 2023 2nd round pick and 2023 rd round pick. They did get a 4th back from the Cards.

Stroud has looked pretty good so far. But one season is not a career. Richardson look ok. Had some nice plays but he was still way too reliant on his running. He only played 4 games this year and he is STILL 3rd in rushing yards on the team.

 

[flyerhawk]

Can't miss QBs are mostly myth.

Not from a draft prospectus they aren't. It's not about whether they are actually can't miss or not. It's that they are viewed that way. Trevor Lawrence was viewed that way. Joe Burrow was viewed that way. Andrew Luck was viewed that way.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Not from a draft prospectus they aren't. It's not about whether they are actually can't miss or not. It's that they are viewed that way. Trevor Lawrence was viewed that way. Joe Burrow was viewed that way. Andrew Luck was viewed that way.

Luck yes the other two I'm not sure qualified as can't miss.

 

[blstoker]

I don't think Geno played all that much differently than he did last year.

I think defenses play him a little differently this year. I think our OL has been WILDLY erratic this year. Geno has pressed more this year because we have been behind more.

None of this is to say that Geno is a good QB. He's a somewhat better than league average QB. That means he will have good games and bad games and erratic play. Which is likely with anyone we replace him with that we can get. Just the way it is.

It's interesting to look at the numbers. The numbers don't agree that it's some boogie man of the OLine being so much worse this year than last. Seconds from snap to pass/pressure/sack in 2022 was 2.4 for Geno. It's 2.4 for Geno in 2023 as well. Sacks per game is down to 2.3 from 2.7 last year. Knockdowns are down from 3.8 per game in 2022 to 2.8 in 2023. Hurries are up to 3.7 from 2.1. 2022, Geno faced pressure 23.5% of his drop backs in 2022 and it's slightly up to 24.8.

Even if you think the 1.3 point increase in pressure percentage is the issue, it's hard to imagine that it truly justifies Geno's on target percentage to drop from 78.8% in 2022 to 67.5% in 2023.

Geno has thrown it shorter and less accurately this season than last while playing behind a line that is giving him about league average protection overall. I agree that it isn't as simple as "Geno bad", but Geno hasn't been good and with how this team has played this year it's almost a miracle they are 8-7 right now.

 

[flyerhawk]

It's interesting to look at the numbers. The numbers don't agree that it's some boogie man of the OLine being so much worse this year than last. Seconds from snap to pass/pressure/sack in 2022 was 2.4 for Geno. It's 2.4 for Geno in 2023 as well. Sacks per game is down to 2.3 from 2.7 last year. Knockdowns are down from 3.8 per game in 2022 to 2.8 in 2023. Hurries are up to 3.7 from 2.1. 2022, Geno faced pressure 23.5% of his drop backs in 2022 and it's slightly up to 24.8.

Even if you think the 1.3 point increase in pressure percentage is the issue, it's hard to imagine that it truly justifies Geno's on target percentage to drop from 78.8% in 2022 to 67.5% in 2023.

Geno has thrown it shorter and less accurately this season than last while playing behind a line that is giving him about league average protection overall. I agree that it isn't as simple as "Geno bad", but Geno hasn't been good and with how this team has played this year it's almost a miracle they are 8-7 right now.

Aggregate stats don't always tell you a full story though.

The OL has been VERY erratic this year. In some games, the OL has played really well. The Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers games stand out the most for me. Other games, the OL has been poor. The Ravens game, the 2nd Rams game and the Niners games stand out.

I want to be clear that I'm not really arguing that Geno is better or worse than last year. My point is that his play, on the whole, is more or less the same as last year. We played 4 games against teams with winning records last year(Niners 2X, Chefs, Lions). We lost 3 of them.

This year we've played 9 games against teams with winning records and won 3 of them. We've also played some of the toughest defenses in football this year.

If you want to say he's a little worse than last year that's fine I guess. We played a much tougher schedule this year so that isn't surprising. But Geno gave us more or less what we should have expected. Which is why I would be shocked if Pete thinks that what he has to do is make a change at QB and that will fix everything.

 

[flyerhawk]

Luck yes the other two I'm not sure qualified as can't miss.

Lawrence was considered can't miss his entire time at Clemson. He would have gone No. 1 had he gone pro after his Sophomore year.

Joe Burrow had one of the best college seasons by QB in NCAA history. He single handedly won a national title for LSU. He was, without question, the No. 1 QB.

Here is an article from a few months ago that shows what I'm talking about...


They have the top 3 rated QBs of the past 10 years as Burrow, Williams and Lawrence. As I said, Williams has faded a little over the past month mostly, IMO, because his team completely shit the bed. But he was most certainly considered a can't miss for most of his college career.

Go back and read the scouting reports on Young and Stroud. Obviously they were drafted 1-2 for a reason. But there were notable question marks about him. As I said earlier, for Young there were big concerns about his frame which remain and for Stroud there are concerns about his lack of athleticism which also remain although his passing ability has significantly lessened them.

My point isn't that either was a bad pick or that they won't be good pros. Time will tell on that. But there is a difference in how top QBs in each draft are viewed. The QBs in the 2021 draft were viewed very poorly with only 1 QB taken in the first 2 rounds and so far that has shown itself to be an accurate assessment of that crop.

Which is why I push back when you argue that we should just draft the best available QB no matter what.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think we need to just wait and see how things fall before we get all crazy about the ifs and maybes. A lot can and will happen before the draft. We go through this every year ( as do the majority of teams) and then things play out the way they do. We are in basically the same boat as 20-25 other teams and will likely be having this conversation next year. Hell, we had the same problems when Russ was here. We are like the Steelers. Always in that perpetual win just enough to get into the play-offs but never really have the high draft picks to completely reset or rebuild. That isn't going to change and frankly, I'm not sure I want a team that loses 12 or 13 games and constantly rolling the dice until they get lucky. Maybe we think we can trade up and maybe Pete and Jon actually had some conversations about that, I don't know. But it isn't something that's as easy to do as people think. Especially with all the other teams in the mix. Right now, I just want to enjoy the rest of this season and see if we can win a play-off game. Never had much expectations beyond that. We are nowhere near a SB contender currently, regardless of who is under center.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think we need to just wait and see how things fall before we get all crazy about the ifs and maybes. A lot can and will happen before the draft. We go through this every year ( as do the majority of teams) and then things play out the way they do. We are in basically the same boat as 20-25 other teams and will likely be having this conversation next year. Hell, we had the same problems when Russ was here. We are like the Steelers. Always in that perpetual win just enough to get into the play-offs but never really have the high draft picks to completely reset or rebuild. That isn't going to change and frankly, I'm not sure I want a team that loses 12 or 13 games and constantly rolling the dice until they get lucky. Maybe we think we can trade up and maybe Pete and Jon actually had some conversations about that, I don't know. But it isn't something that's as easy to do as people think. Especially with all the other teams in the mix. Right now, I just want to enjoy the rest of this season and see if we can win a play-off game. Never had much expectations beyond that. We are nowhere near a SB contender currently, regardless of who is under center.

Pretty much agree with all of this.

As frustrated as I have been with our team this year, if we sat back and looked at this season objectively this team is an improvement over last season. Consider the following.

• We had a much tougher schedule this year. We played 3 double digit win teams last year(Niners 2X, Chiefs). This year we've played 7, and there are still 2 games left. If the Steelers and Rams win out that would mean that 10 of our opponents had 10+ wins this year.
• We don't have the gaping holes on the roster we had last year. Last year, we had gaping holes at RG, C, DT, WR3 and CB2. As it stands we potentially addressed all of those holes, with the caveat that we may lose Leonard Williams which creates problems for us.
• We had 2 straight really solid drafts. Witherspoon and JSN looked to be Pro Bowl level talents. Charbs has looked good and gives his a dynamic backfield. Hall has looked good in spots at a crowded position. Bradford has shown some promise, although he still has things to work on. Olu has looked the part when asked and could wind up being the starter next year. You get me potentially 4 or 5 starters from a draft and I'll be thrilled.
• We are 1 missed field goal away from being 9-6. Last year we needed a game winning FG in the last game of the season just to get to 9-8.

Obviously we aren't where we need the team and I still think we are probably better off find a new coaching regime but the talent on the field is pretty darn good. Sure we need a better QB but so do 25 other NFL teams. I would rather have this than play draft lotto every year in hopes of hitting on a QB because that usually doesn't work.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Pretty much agree with all of this.

As frustrated as I have been with our team this year, if we sat back and looked at this season objectively this team is an improvement over last season. Consider the following.

• We had a much tougher schedule this year. We played 3 double digit win teams last year(Niners 2X, Chiefs). This year we've played 7, and there are still 2 games left. If the Steelers and Rams win out that would mean that 10 of our opponents had 10+ wins this year.
• We don't have the gaping holes on the roster we had last year. Last year, we had gaping holes at RG, C, DT, WR3 and CB2. As it stands we potentially addressed all of those holes, with the caveat that we may lose Leonard Williams which creates problems for us.
• We had 2 straight really solid drafts. Witherspoon and JSN looked to be Pro Bowl level talents. Charbs has looked good and gives his a dynamic backfield. Hall has looked good in spots at a crowded position. Bradford has shown some promise, although he still has things to work on. Olu has looked the part when asked and could wind up being the starter next year. You get me potentially 4 or 5 starters from a draft and I'll be thrilled.
• We are 1 missed field goal away from being 9-6. Last year we needed a game winning FG in the last game of the season just to get to 9-8.

Obviously we aren't where we need the team and I still think we are probably better off find a new coaching regime but the talent on the field is pretty darn good. Sure we need a better QB but so do 25 other NFL teams. I would rather have this than play draft lotto every year in hopes of hitting on a QB because that usually doesn't work.

I think you and I are pretty much in agreement. Obviously, I would love to find a franchise QB on a rookie deal to anchor this team for the next decade or so but we also need to do what needs to be done with the other 52. Easy to play armchair GM but not easy to win ever in this league. ASk the Eagles or Chiefs fans how happy they are right now and they were considered heavy favorites going into the season with superstars at QB. Hurts has regressed some though but the Eagles show that coaching matters at co-ordinator. Speaking of which, I hope Pete can put his ego aside and bring in a bonafide DC and let him have full control. I doubt he can do that though. And I won't be overly surprised if Waldron gets some interviews for HC jobs. It's the way of the league now.

As for the Hawks. Olu likely our starting C next year, imo and our future at the position. Hoping Bradford continues to develop and I like the toughness but he may have to learn to control his temper. The trenches are a little dirty at times and you just have to deal with it. The injuries to Cross and Lucas set us back and I'm not sure either one got fully healthy but at least, they are back. The O-line has looked good at times but need consistency. It's the toughest position group to keep going that there is and nobody is immune to problems because of injury and depth.
Not sure what the plan is for Adams but likely time to move on given what he brings to the table. Will cost some money in dead cap, will he not? Anyway, we will see. Losing Nwosu hurt us and it will be good to get him back but Mafe looks like the real deal. I like Hall and hopefully he develops. Time to move on from Taylor, imo. And I hated the Frank Clark signing. We'll see if they can keep Williams. I hope so. Need some speed at LB. Brooks seems to be having trouble staying healthy but he has looked really good at times, at least in run defense and getting after the QB in blitz packages. Need another K.J. type of player that takes away checkdowns and can do multiple things.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think you and I are pretty much in agreement. Obviously, I would love to find a franchise QB on a rookie deal to anchor this team for the next decade or so but we also need to do what needs to be done with the other 52. Easy to play armchair GM but not easy to win ever in this league. ASk the Eagles or Chiefs fans how happy they are right now and they were considered heavy favorites going into the season with superstars at QB. Hurts has regressed some though but the Eagles show that coaching matters at co-ordinator. Speaking of which, I hope Pete can put his ego aside and bring in a bonafide DC and let him have full control. I doubt he can do that though. And I won't be overly surprised if Waldron gets some interviews for HC jobs. It's the way of the league now.

Honestly, if Pete were willing to step back to be a pure HC and not have his hands in the defensive cookie jar so much, I would probably be happy with him sticking around. I give him credit for actually being a bit more aggressive this year than in year's past. That was a pleasant surprise.

As for the Hawks. Olu likely our starting C next year, imo and our future at the position. Hoping Bradford continues to develop and I like the toughness but he may have to learn to control his temper. The trenches are a little dirty at times and you just have to deal with it. The injuries to Cross and Lucas set us back and I'm not sure either one got fully healthy but at least, they are back. The O-line has looked good at times but need consistency. It's the toughest position group to keep going that there is and nobody is immune to problems because of injury and depth.
Not sure what the plan is for Adams but likely time to move on given what he brings to the table. Will cost some money in dead cap, will he not? Anyway, we will see. Losing Nwosu hurt us and it will be good to get him back but Mafe looks like the real deal. I like Hall and hopefully he develops. Time to move on from Taylor, imo. And I hated the Frank Clark signing. We'll see if they can keep Williams. I hope so. Need some speed at LB. Brooks seems to be having trouble staying healthy but he has looked really good at times, at least in run defense and getting after the QB in blitz packages. Need another K.J. type of player that takes away checkdowns and can do multiple things.

I'm not sure what Brooks' best position is. He's got some skills certainly but can he be an every down MLB? He doesn't have the coverage skills to be a KJ like Sam. IMO, we desperately need that coverage LB. And an upgrade at FS, IMO. Diggs isn't completely cooked but he's getting close.

 

[JMR]

And I won't be overly surprised if Waldron gets some interviews for HC jobs. It's the way of the league now.

That would knock me out of my chair with the way this offense has underachieved this year overall. He didn't get hired away last year when the O was good & Geno was comeback player of the year, and this season it's taken a big step back. I think there's a much greater chance he's flat out fired. Hiring OCs after big success is certainly the way of the league, but Waldron hasn't had big success as an OC. People complain a ton about the defense, but the O has been a way bigger disappointment to me.

 

[Judge Fudge]

That would knock me out of my chair with the way this offense has underachieved this year overall. He didn't get hired away last year when the O was good & Geno was comeback player of the year, and this season it's taken a big step back. I think there's a much greater chance he's flat out fired. Hiring OCs after big success is certainly the way of the league, but Waldron hasn't had big success as an OC. People complain a ton about the defense, but the O has been a way bigger disappointment to me.

But it's the Talent, Not the Coaching IMO

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

That would knock me out of my chair with the way this offense has underachieved this year overall. He didn't get hired away last year when the O was good & Geno was comeback player of the year, and this season it's taken a big step back. I think there's a much greater chance he's flat out fired. Hiring OCs after big success is certainly the way of the league, but Waldron hasn't had big success as an OC. People complain a ton about the defense, but the O has been a way bigger disappointment to me.

At times, he's tried to get a little too cute and overthink what the defenses are doing but I don't blame him entirely for the offense taking a step back. Unless we use 12 or 13 personnel and have TEs blocking, our run game goes nowhere. Part of that is playing pretty good defenses but our O-line really took a step back in the run game, imo. The injuries were a big factor as well. Far too many times, our RBs are getting first contact 3-4 yds behind the line of scrimmage. And let's face it, Geno was really hesitant to pull the trigger a lot this season. Last year he was hitting the back foot and letting it rip. Now he is trying to live up to the endorsement the team gave him and afraid to make mistakes which often times in this league actually leads to mistakes. And he started that in the second half of last season. Not Geno bashing here either but it is what it is at this point.