Philly trades Zach Ertz

[RememberTheKoy]

Not confused at all. Eagles aren't very good and won't make the 7th seed. I don't care about strength of schedule.

Are you thinking a very good team will make the 7th seed?

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Are you thinking a very good team will make the 7th seed?

No, a mediocre team will make the 7th seed. Philly is below mediocre.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

No, a mediocre team will make the 7th seed. Philly is below mediocre.

Who are the mediocre teams you think will win 10 or more games to be in contention for that 7th seed? Because with the Eagles remaining schedule it is very within the realm of possibility for them to finish 9-8.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Who are the mediocre teams you think will win 10 or more games to be in contention for that 7th seed? Because with the Eagles remaining schedule it is very within the realm of possibility for them to finish 9-8.

San Fran
Chicago
Minnesota
WFT
Panthers

 

[RememberTheKoy]

San Fran
Chicago
Minnesota
WFT
Panthers

I think the 49ers are your 6th seed.

So that leaves us 4 teams of yours to be the 7th seed.


Bears 3-3
W7 @bucs
W8 49ers
W9 @Steelers
W10 BYE
W11 Ravens
W12 @Lions
W13 Cardinals
W14 @Packers
W15 Vikings
W16 @Seahawks (Wilson back by this point)
W17 Giants
W18 @Vikings

Outside of the Lions @ Giants game and the 2 games against hte Vikings which they will probably split, that is a really tough schedule for a team with as dog shit of an offense as the Bears.


Vikings 3-3
W7 BYE
W8 Cowboys
W9 @Ravens
W10 @Chargers
W11 Packers
W12 @49ers
W13 @Lions
W14 Steelers
W15 @Bears
W16 Rams
W17 @Packers
W18 Bears

I think the Vikings are pretty good. I think they are what we could potentially call a bad good team. They should be one of those teams in contention for that 7th seed, but like the Bears that is a brutal schedule. 9-7 is their absolute perfect scenario ceiling with that schedule.



Redskins 2-4
W7 @Packers
W8 @Broncos
W9 BYE
W10 Bucs
W11 @Panthers
W12 Seahawks (Wilson back yet?)
W13 @Raiders
W14 Cowboys
W15 @Eagles
W16 @Cowboys
W17 Eagles
W18 @Giants

It's possible. Fitzmagic comes back at some point. Do they play him over the young kid? Does it hurt them? Does it propel them? If so how long because the Fitzmagic ride never is. Also should be noted not as easy of a remaining schedule as the similiar schedule of the Eagles. Eagles play the Lions while the Redskins play the Packers. Eagles and Redskins both have 4 losses but Eagles have already got theirs from the Bucs and then the Cowboys in 1 game. Redskins still have likely 3 losses remaining from those 2 teams where as the next time the Eagles play the Cowboys is week 18 when there is a strong chance Cowboys could be resting their starters. They are close to the Eagles for sure but the Eagles for sure have a much easier remaining schedule and that is all the edge that is needed here.


Panthers 3-3
W7 @Giants
W8 @Falcons
W9 Patriots
W10 @Cardinals
W11 Redskins
W12 @Dolphins
W13 Falcons
W14 @Bills
W15 Bucs
W16 @Saints
W17 @bucs

The big thing right off the bat is that the Eagles beat the Panthers so they own a tie breaker over the Panthers if they hold the same record. So with this core factor that I believe it is within the realm of possibilities for the Eagles to finish 9-8 then that means the Panthers would have to win at least 10 games, to go 7-4 the rest of the way in order to finish 10-7. And they have some definite possible wins out there with the Giants, Falcons twice, Redskins & Dolphins. Let's say win all 5 of those games. They would still need to find 2 more wins somewhere else. Patriots? Maybe. @Saints? Maybe. It's possible but I don't see it as that likely with Sam Darnold.



That leaves us with:

Eagles 2-4
W7 @Raiders
W8 @Lions
W9 Chargers
W10 @Broncos
W11 Saints
W12 @Gaints
W13 @Jets
W14 BYE
W15 Redskins
W16 Giants
W17 @Redskins
W18 Cowboys


Of @Raiders, @Broncos & Saints they will likely have to find a way to take at least 1 of those but probably at least 2 of those. The rest should fall in place.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I think the 49ers are your 6th seed.

So that leaves us 4 teams of yours to be the 7th seed.


Bears 3-3
W7 @bucs
W8 49ers
W9 @Steelers
W10 BYE
W11 Ravens
W12 @Lions
W13 Cardinals
W14 @Packers
W15 Vikings
W16 @Seahawks (Wilson back by this point)
W17 Giants
W18 @Vikings

Outside of the Lions @ Giants game and the 2 games against hte Vikings which they will probably split, that is a really tough schedule for a team with as dog shit of an offense as the Bears.


Vikings 3-3
W7 BYE
W8 Cowboys
W9 @Ravens
W10 @Chargers
W11 Packers
W12 @49ers
W13 @Lions
W14 Steelers
W15 @Bears
W16 Rams
W17 @Packers
W18 Bears

I think the Vikings are pretty good. I think they are what we could potentially call a bad good team. They should be one of those teams in contention for that 7th seed, but like the Bears that is a brutal schedule. 9-7 is their absolute perfect scenario ceiling with that schedule.



Redskins 2-4
W7 @Packers
W8 @Broncos
W9 BYE
W10 Bucs
W11 @Panthers
W12 Seahawks (Wilson back yet?)
W13 @Raiders
W14 Cowboys
W15 @Eagles
W16 @Cowboys
W17 Eagles
W18 @Giants

It's possible. Fitzmagic comes back at some point. Do they play him over the young kid? Does it hurt them? Does it propel them? If so how long because the Fitzmagic ride never is. Also should be noted not as easy of a remaining schedule as the similiar schedule of the Eagles. Eagles play the Lions while the Redskins play the Packers. Eagles and Redskins both have 4 losses but Eagles have already got theirs from the Bucs and then the Cowboys in 1 game. Redskins still have likely 3 losses remaining from those 2 teams where as the next time the Eagles play the Cowboys is week 18 when there is a strong chance Cowboys could be resting their starters. They are close to the Eagles for sure but the Eagles for sure have a much easier remaining schedule and that is all the edge that is needed here.


Panthers 3-3
W7 @Giants
W8 @Falcons
W9 Patriots
W10 @Cardinals
W11 Redskins
W12 @Dolphins
W13 Falcons
W14 @Bills
W15 Bucs
W16 @Saints
W17 @bucs

The big thing right off the bat is that the Eagles beat the Panthers so they own a tie breaker over the Panthers if they hold the same record. So with this core factor that I believe it is within the realm of possibilities for the Eagles to finish 9-8 then that means the Panthers would have to win at least 10 games, to go 7-4 the rest of the way in order to finish 10-7. And they have some definite possible wins out there with the Giants, Falcons twice, Redskins & Dolphins. Let's say win all 5 of those games. They would still need to find 2 more wins somewhere else. Patriots? Maybe. @Saints? Maybe. It's possible but I don't see it as that likely with Sam Darnold.



That leaves us with:

Eagles 2-4
W7 @Raiders
W8 @Lions
W9 Chargers
W10 @Broncos
W11 Saints
W12 @Gaints
W13 @Jets
W14 BYE
W15 Redskins
W16 Giants
W17 @Redskins
W18 Cowboys


Of @Raiders, @Broncos & Saints they will likely have to find a way to take at least 1 of those but probably at least 2 of those. The rest should fall in place.

I see 4 wins...Split Skin/Giants series, Jets and Lions. Maybe 5 if they can steal either the Raiders or @Giants games.
Overall I see 6-11 or at best 7-10. Not good enough.

Personally I would rather have Philly lose and get a better draft spot. This team has way too many holes and need a serious influx of young top talent.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

I see 4 wins...Split Skin/Giants series, Jets and Lions. Maybe 5 if they can steal either the Raiders or @Giants games.
Overall I see 6-11 or at best 7-10. Not good enough.

Personally I would rather have Philly lose and get a better draft spot. This team has way too many holes and need a serious influx of young top talent.

Eagles have played one bad team so far, the Falcons, and they destroyed them. They have played one mediocre team so far, the Panthers, in Carolina and they beat them. Eagles have played 1 low tier playoff team which I have as the 5th seed 49ers and lost by 6 points. They have played the two teams that played in the last Super Bowl. They lost by 12 to the Chiefs but scored 30 points. They lost by 6 points to the Super Bowl Champion Bucs on a short week.

Eagles aren't a good team. But they are a team fully capable of sweeping the Redskins and Giants. The W18 Cowboys game I expect the Cowboys to be resting starters that game, but maybe not. They beat the Saints last year with Hurts and the Saints are a very inconsistent team themselves this season. The Broncos have lost 3 in a row and are not looking good at all. They are likely another good bad team themselves but it is a game the Eagles will have a chance to win just like the Panthers. I don't really know how to feel about the Raiders game anymore. I was confident about it after the Gruden shit but then they worked the Broncos so now not so confident about that game. But we will see because the Eagles have extra time to prepare. But who knows if that extra prep time means to Nick Sirianni.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Eagles have played one bad team so far, the Falcons, and they destroyed them. They have played one mediocre team so far, the Panthers, in Carolina and they beat them. Eagles have played 1 low tier playoff team which I have as the 5th seed 49ers and lost by 6 points. They have played the two teams that played in the last Super Bowl. They lost by 12 to the Chiefs but scored 30 points. They lost by 6 points to the Super Bowl Champion Bucs on a short week.

Eagles aren't a good team. But they are a team fully capable of sweeping the Redskins and Giants. The W18 Cowboys game I expect the Cowboys to be resting starters that game, but maybe not. They beat the Saints last year with Hurts and the Saints are a very inconsistent team themselves this season. The Broncos have lost 3 in a row and are not looking good at all. They are likely another good bad team themselves but it is a game the Eagles will have a chance to win just like the Panthers. I don't really know how to feel about the Raiders game anymore. I was confident about it after the Gruden shit but then they worked the Broncos so now not so confident about that game. But we will see because the Eagles have extra time to prepare. But who knows if that extra prep time means to Nick Sirianni.

If CMC stays healthy, they'll win more than the Eagles. Chiefs D went full prevent and didn't care if Philly scored or not at the end. That game wasn't as close as the score suggests. They did have a solid 2nd half against the Bucs but bad teams don't over come that large lead. Raiders game is a who knows, Broncos have a better defense plus it's in Denver so not confident in them winning. Saints have game tape of Hurts so I expect a different game plan plus Kamara could run all over them all day. Yes, they can sweep the Giants so I'll give you that one but not sweeping Redskins. They're not great but they do have the better talent on offense and defense. Probably a home and home split. If Dallas stays hot, there could be a chance of playoff seeding on the line so who knows until we get to the end of the season.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

If CMC stays healthy, they'll win more than the Eagles. Chiefs D went full prevent and didn't care if Philly scored or not at the end. That game wasn't as close as the score suggests. They did have a solid 2nd half against the Bucs but bad teams don't over come that large lead. Raiders game is a who knows, Broncos have a better defense plus it's in Denver so not confident in them winning. Saints have game tape of Hurts so I expect a different game plan plus Kamara could run all over them all day. Yes, they can sweep the Giants so I'll give you that one but not sweeping Redskins. They're not great but they do have the better talent on offense and defense. Probably a home and home split. If Dallas stays hot, there could be a chance of playoff seeding on the line so who knows until we get to the end of the season.

Panthers will have to finish 10-17 from their current 3-3 record with that remaining schedule.

Eagles kept with the Chiefs throughout that game. It wasn't like the chiefs went up 42-7 and the Eagles put up points in garbage time. Eagles were up 10-7 after the first. Down 21-13 going into half. Down 28-16 heading into the 4th and then it ended at 42-30.

With the removal of the #2 seed getting a bye it reduces the effort to get that and if you are already out of the running for the #1 seed but already have your division locked up like the Cowboys could be heading into week 18 then that is a situation where you just rest your starters after the longest season in NFL history.

 

[broncosmitty]

I see 4 wins...Split Skin/Giants series, Jets and Lions. Maybe 5 if they can steal either the Raiders or @Giants games.
Overall I see 6-11 or at best 7-10. Not good enough.

Personally I would rather have Philly lose and get a better draft spot. This team has way too many holes and need a serious influx of young top talent.

As a Lions fan, that game against the Eagles is as good a chance as any to keep from going all defeated.


Two shitty teams, could be a tie, who knows really?

 

[fastforward]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/playoff-odds

Estimates as of October 19 2021 for anyone interested.

 

[jarntt]

» Week 3 Picks With a Pinch of Mailbag

grantland.com

BILL SIMMONS

Week 3 Picks With a Pinch of Mailbag​

Who are the Good Bad Teams in the NFL, and how concussed was Marty McFly?

by BILL SIMMONS ON SEPTEMBER 23, 2011




BENGALS (-3) over 49ers

Q: Where do you stand on Andy Dalton’s nickname, “The Red Rifle?”
— Frank, Cincinnati

SG: In! One hundred percent in! I’ve never felt better about anyone with red hair, with the possible exception of Christina Hendricks and David Caruso during Season 1 of NYPD Blue. I like the Bengals in general — there’s an overwhelming chance they might be the Good Bad Team this year (a.k.a. the Bad Team that either covers or beats the other bad teams).


Redskins (+4) over COWBOYS

Q: Is this the worst season of Monday Night Football ever? Skins-Cowboys is the best matchup of the first three weeks, then check out the rest of the slate: Colts-Bucs, Bears-Lions (admittedly watchable), Dolphins-Jets (why in the world would Miami get two Monday night games?), Ravens-Jags, Chargers-Chiefs, Bears-Eagles, Vikings-Packers, Chiefs-Pats, Giants-Saints, Chargers-Jags, Rams-Seahawks, Steelers-Niners, Falcons-Saints. Counting the first Monday, at least ten of the 17 Monday Night Football games in 2011 could have a spread of more than a touchdown!
— Kyle, Cleveland

SG: That’s brutal. The six worst teams in football (Seattle, Kansas City, Miami, Indianapolis, San Fran and Jacksonville) are headlining eight of the last 13 weeks? I think the guy who programmed Monday Night Football stayed at the Skirvin last winter. In other news, I believe in the Skins to be something. They’re somewhere between a playoff team and the Good Bad Team … maybe the Good Mediocre Team? Washington 23, Dallas, 20. And if the Falcons beat the Bucs, you might want to go against me.

He says it all the time and you need to pull a quote from 2011 to show that?

 

[jarntt]

Who are the mediocre teams you think will win 10 or more games to be in contention for that 7th seed? Because with the Eagles remaining schedule it is very within the realm of possibility for them to finish 9-8.

Of course if you start your premise with the Eagles winning 9 games they may be in the hunt for the last spot. That being a realistic assumption is what I believe most are disagreeing with. You seem to be missing that important part of the back and forth

 

[Manster7588]

Are you thinking a very good team will make the 7th seed?

I think a team better than the Eagles take the 7 seed.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

He says it all the time and you need to pull a quote from 2011 to show that?

He basically does just podcasts now and doesn't tweet much and doesn't write articles anymore.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think the Rams or Cards ( which ever one doesn't win the NFCW) are tge 5 seed, the Saints will be 6 seed and either the Niners or Vikings are the 7. That prediction model @fastforward posted seems pretty much spot on to me.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

Saints have some tough sledding to get that 6th seed.

Bucs twice, Panthers again who blew them out already, Bills, Titans & Cowboys. Let's say they lose those games that puts them at 8 losses. That Saints @ Eagles game in November will be huge for both teams. Tie breaker determining game if that 7th seed comes down between Eagles and Saints.

 

[fastforward]

I think the Rams or Cards ( which ever one doesn't win the NFCW) are tge 5 seed, the Saints will be 6 seed and either the Niners or Vikings are the 7. That prediction model @fastforward posted seems pretty much spot on to me.

I can't take any credit for it. I just posted a link. I also think the top 5 NFC teams are 'in' and their percentages are generally underestimated. The Saints have the inside track on #6. Personally I had the Eagles around 15% to make the playoffs rather than 17.3%. I'm also not so high on the Vikings or the Seahawks, but in a 7-way fight it's very open. There are scenarios where several teams finish 9-8 but inevitably lose out on tie-breakers for the 1 remaining seed.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I can't take any credit for it. I just posted a link. I also think the top 5 NFC teams are 'in' and their percentages are generally underestimated. The Saints have the inside track on #6. Personally I had the Eagles around 15% to make the playoffs rather than 17.3%. I'm also not so high on the Vikings or the Seahawks, but in a 7-way fight it's very open. There are scenarios where several teams finish 9-8 but inevitably lose out on tie-breakers for the 1 remaining seed.

Yeah, I can see tiebreakers coming into play. Seattle already lost the head to head with the Vikes and both of those teams could be in the 9-8 scenario. Minny is a lot better than their slow start to the season would suggest. I'm not a big Cousins fan but he has played well and they have the weapons if they stay healthy.
I think Philly is more likely looking at 8-9 max if that. More likely they are a 7 win team. They are in that shitty division though so that gives them a punchers chance.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

Yeah, I can see tiebreakers coming into play. Seattle already lost the head to head with the Vikes and both of those teams could be in the 9-8 scenario. Minny is a lot better than their slow start to the season would suggest. I'm not a big Cousins fan but he has played well and they have the weapons if they stay healthy.
I think Philly is more likely looking at 8-9 max if that. More likely they are a 7 win team. They are in that shitty division though so that gives them a punchers chance.

We aren't just in a shitty division, we have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.